Speculation: 2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion (Part III)

[Howard Chuck]

Dear Lord up in heaven, please grant us some lucky balls this saturday night.

(I know I asked for this last saturday night as well, but that was for an entirely different reason)

Post of the year, right there!

 

[Aavco Cup]

 

[Rheged]

I like Sergachev but that's a weird one to me..

 

[Whileee]

Interesting.

Not sure a smooth function curve fits the data best. Looks like some "steps" with different slopes. Spline?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Jets SHOULD get 3 guys who will eventually see time in the NHL... 3 picks in the top 36 definitely is nice, since i feel this draft starts to maybe fall off a bit after pick 39 40. Interesting thing about these drafts tho, is there are always some guys who fall and some guys who rise, Scheifele is an example of a Riser, Connor and Barzal are examples of fallers and so is Couts from Philly to an extent, was projected to go top 3 or 4. Every draft has them, you look at the 2014 draft and you look at the players drafted, Larkin went pretty late all things considered and was probably the best player in that draft this past season. Ehlers you could say fell to the JETS also. Some teams are not good drafters, others are.. It's interesting actually. You can take the top 10 projected players every year and probably compare them to the GM's and Scouts lists of the top 10 projected players and I'll bet, outside of maybe the 1st overall pick most years (and even then, you look at yakupov vs Murray as an example) They will all be different.

It is interesting. Look at Boston last year. They paid a high price to assemble 3 mid 1st picks in a row and picked badly 3 times, especially that last one. Look at Edmonton's record. They have managed to get very little outside the first round. The few good picks they made they traded away but I guess that is a different failure. But even counting those, they have not made many good picks. With their first picks they could have had no scouts of their own at all. They just took the consensus picks from the media experts. They could have saved any money they spent on scouts. In fact if they had just continued to use the publicly available lists in the later rounds they probably would have done better. Definitely poster boys for bad drafting.

 

[castle]

Interesting.

Not sure a smooth function curve fits the data best. Looks like some "steps" with different slopes. Spline?

nah, they're just not analyzing the right thing. kind of ridiculous actually. they should directly model game number with a zero inflated poisson or negative binomial rather than a 0/1 more or less than some arbitrary threshold. or if they really just have to do that, then directly model it with a logistic regression rather than calculate the proportion for each pick number and try to run some linear regression on it. I'm guessing they are really actually amateur statisticians with a payroll, rather than having an understanding of the underlying nature of the distributions they are trying to predict.

edit: and you are also right. looks good for a spline to me as well. looks like a break at first round. like the later first round picks are getting more games than they should. perhaps because they're first round, the teams want to give them every opportunity and aren't as willing with even a high second round pick

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think that 200 games is too low a threshold for having made it in the NHL. Many players who are just not quite good enough still manage to accumulate 200 games over a number of years of trying to make it. Matt Halischuk is a good example, 280 games. Doubtful he gets any more but it could happen. I would like to see the same chart with a 300 or even 350 game limit. I think it would be more informative.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Dear Lord up in heaven, please grant us some lucky balls this saturday night.

(I know I asked for this last saturday night as well, but that was for an entirely different reason)

When I'm throwing dice in the casino, I like to jiggle the dice in my hand for luck. Sometimes I get a saucy dame to blow on them. Nothing like a good toss to get things rolling. Might want to give that a try.

I am so getting thread banned.