Speculation: 2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion (Part III)

[Saitama]

Are people still this dense? Genuinely, do you not understand the concept of attributing percentages to specific outcomes as the exact likelihood that they are to occur over an infinite amount of times?

I was interested by TSN's list this morning and their descriptions of "first layer" and "second layer" picks. I anticipate tons of movement from the expected picks.

I wasn't posting to state that we were definitely not going to get 9th, I just posted what happened when I ran it for fun. Settle yourself!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Let's pretend for a moment here. Jets win the 1st pick in the draft.

Who do you take? I don't think the answer is as obvious as it was a couple months ago as I think theres a good chance that Patrick Laine has a better career than Auston Matthews.

All other things being equal I still take Matthews. Centre.

But we need RWs too. Any of the top 3 please.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

I have a hunch we are taking alot of ushl or college players ala last year.

Good link on top 15
http://www.tsn.ca/laine-closes-gap-on-matthews-atop-tsn-draft-rankings-1.478128

 

[Aavco Cup]

All other things being equal I still take Matthews. Centre.

But we need RWs too. Any of the top 3 please.

That's why I prefer Laine. Everyone else at the top of this draft seems to shoot left.

 

[Saitama]

PLD and Tkachuk seem to take a fair amount of penalties compared to the rest on that list, which has been a problem for the Jets.

 

[ps241]

At least we'll know #whatdidchevydotoday



Actually now I remember McTavish was in europe watching the U18 during the lottery last year. Maybe that's why they moved it? To avoid conflict with that toutney.

I want to witness the live Chevy Gif grin for any of the three lottery spots please hockey gods!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We will call that the Filip Forsberg syndrome. He was ranked in the top 2 or 3 prospects most of that year and for some reason on draft day he falls to 11??? That was mind numbing even that day and now it ends up that he is light years ahead of Nail the snail and he is a hell of a player. He should have never fallen that far but sometimes **** happens. It was before my time but I hear that is exactly what happened to Fowler, he was ranked high all year but I think he got overanalized and for some reason organizations choked and he fell to 12th?

I am going to keep my chin and wait for a good result.

Could Chychrun fall to 22? Is it possible?

I can't recall ever hearing so much back-pedaling on a player before. Course my sample size is small. There seems to be more psychology / human nature involved in the draft than there should be. Adrenalin, bandwagon effects, etc.

 

[Daximus]

I have a problem with letting players continue to dominate inferior competition no matter what position they play.

When they're ready they're ready. Personally I find the concept of over ripening to be utter nonsense in terms of player development.

The thing is they have to be dominating that inferior competition in the first place. Guys like Parayko, Gostisbehere, Klingberg are already looking like some of the best defencemen from their class and though they all were taken late, they were all also over ripened there is a case for it.
How do you define being ready?

 

[Daximus]

I couldn't agree more. This idea that it's smart to let a player stay in a league that they dominate for an extended period of time doesn't make sense. Sure, they look good when they step right in and perform but there's no reason to think they couldn't have made the jump earlier, in which case you get more of their productive career at the top level. When a player is ready, put them in the NHL right away and you're much more likely to have all of their prime years in the NHL. The only exception might be when you have a logjam at the NHL level. But then it's not an issue of development so much as roster management.

When are they ready? When they can get a few point every couple of nights? When they can make a few decent plays? When they aren't completely in over their head?
I'll take Parayko and Gostisbhere right not over most of the other guys in their class including Trouba.

 

[Jets1975]

I want to witness the live Chevy Gif grin for any of the three lottery spots please hockey gods!

Hockey gods already have use landing 9th.

 

[Aavco Cup]

When are they ready? When they can get a few point every couple of nights? When they can make a few decent plays? When they aren't completely in over their head?
I'll take Parayko and Gostisbhere right not over most of the other guys in their class including Trouba.

You can't tell until they play in preseason. There's no way to know for sure. Even doing well in preseason doesn't make it a sure thing since the play level rises once the season starts.

 

[Daximus]

I didn't really follow the Thrashers back then but it sounds to me like he had a pretty good training camp and likely earned his roster spot. Perhaps after his return from injury they should have returned him to junior though.

Trouba came in and was ready as a D.If the prospect is ready I don't see why he shouldn't play in the NHL.

Burmi, Kane and Bogo likely all had their development ruined by being thrust into a lineup the year they were drafted. There is nothing to gain by rushing a player or really even giving a player a spot when they "might" be ready. When you are absolutely more than sure they ready is when they should be given a spot. Trouba was great in his rookie year but the Jets had absolutely nothing to lose if he had played a season in St. Johns. He very well could have a different career trajectory at this time had he been over ripened compared to the declining production he has put up since his rookie year.

 

[ps241]

Hockey gods already have use landing 9th.

that would be something to hit on the 1.73 % chance.

 

[ps241]

Could Chychrun fall to 22? Is it possible?

I can't recall ever hearing so much back-pedaling on a player before. Course my sample size is small. There seems to be more psychology / human nature involved in the draft than there should be. Adrenalin, bandwagon effects, etc.

No way it would be Chych but I bet we end up with a very solid prospect at 22-23. That was an important break we caught already.

 

[Daximus]

You can't tell until they play in preseason. There's no way to know for sure. Even doing well in preseason doesn't make it a sure thing since the play level rises once the season starts.

You know when they aren't challenged by their competition relative to their role. Guys like Ehlers and Connor are ready. Things began coming easier to them.
Preseason again means nothing. Guys routinely destroy the preseason and get sent back when the real season starts. To me dominating competition is the only way to prove your ready for the next level.

 

[winnipegger]

Burmi, Kane and Bogo likely all had their development ruined by being thrust into a lineup the year they were drafted. There is nothing to gain by rushing a player or really even giving a player a spot when they "might" be ready. When you are absolutely more than sure they ready is when they should be given a spot. Trouba was great in his rookie year but the Jets had absolutely nothing to lose if he had played a season in St. Johns. He very well could have a different career trajectory at this time had he been over ripened compared to the declining production he has put up since his rookie year.

I don't think you can "ruin" a player with development. You can slow down their growth, but a player has x amount of ceiling and it's just a question of when they reach it. For instance, I don't think Bogo would be Lidstrom if they just developed him right. He lacks high end hockey IQ and finesse.

 

[KingBogo]

Running the draft simulator 200 times yesterday, we didn't end up in 9th once. The vast majority of the times, we ended up 7th.

We are almost 4.5 X's more likely to draft 1st than 9th. And 13.5 X's more likely to pick in the top 3 than 9th.

 

[Aavco Cup]

You know when they aren't challenged by their competition relative to their role. Guys like Ehlers and Connor are ready. Things began coming easier to them.
Preseason again means nothing. Guys routinely destroy the preseason and get sent back when the real season starts. To me dominating competition is the only way to prove your ready for the next level.

Drouin got sent back. Bergeron didn't. You never know.

 

[Daximus]

I don't think you can "ruin" a player with development. You can slow down their growth, but a player has x amount of ceiling and it's just a question of when they reach it. For instance, I don't think Bogo would be Lidstrom if they just developed him right. He lacks high end hockey IQ and finesse.

You absolutely can ruin a players development by rushing them it happens every season. Players ceilings aren't just a pre-decided arbitrary act of god. There is a certain amount of natural skill in players for sure but you can absolutely teach players well into their 20's contrary to what some would have you believe.
Hard work can and does pay off. High end hockey IQ and finesse can be learned again contrary to popular belief. We have no idea what Bogo could have been had the Thrashers been patient with him rather than forcing him into a position he wasn't ready to take on.

 

[Daximus]

Drouin got sent back. Bergeron didn't. You never know.

Drouin shouldn't have IMO. I think that was more of a personal thing and many Tampa fans would attest to that. Bergeron and really that whole 2003 draft class basically got a forced year of development with the lockout which I personally think actually strengthened that entire draft class. Even though many of them still performed well prior to the lockout.

 

[EpicGingy]

The thing is they have to be dominating that inferior competition in the first place. Guys like Parayko, Gostisbehere, Klingberg are already looking like some of the best defencemen from their class and though they all were taken late, they were all also over ripened there is a case for it.
How do you define being ready?

All you have to do to be ready is to prove that you can play at the level in a meaningful capacity. Whether they do that by dominating the level below them or showing up in camp and blowing the doors away after a previous season that didn't necessarily scream "NHL ready," is irrelevant. You don't have to wait until they destroy their competition to say he's ready. I don't want to waste a players valuable production on a lower league.

Furthermore by your own criteria Bogosian was NHL ready. Over a PPG as a defenceman in his draft year in the OHL, and was as physically mature as Ekblad was. I have serious doubts pissing away another year (or 2) in OHL and possibly even the AHL afterwards would put him above a guy like Pietrangelo.

I'd argue that leaving players in an inferior league too long can cause them to develop bad habits that won't work when they need to take the next step. At best it's a double edged sword IMO.

 

[Daddy Longlegs]

You are not even the only one on this board who has doubts. I'm on record hoping someone else picks him so we don't.


I'd rather have Fabbro

No way baby! Fingers crossed for Chychrun!!! OH YEAH!!!

 

[Aavco Cup]

Drouin shouldn't have IMO. I think that was more of a personal thing and many Tampa fans would attest to that. Bergeron and really that whole 2003 draft class basically got a forced year of development with the lockout which I personally think actually strengthened that entire draft class. Even though many of them still performed well prior to the lockout.

It is what it is. You never know. Statistics only give probability not certainty. Also...I don't know who you are but I would guess the team's coach and general manager are a better judge than you are as I assume you didn't watch any of the Tampa training camp that year.

Didn't Bergeron play a whole NHL season before the lockout? Or am I imagining things.

 

[surixon]

It is what it is. You never know. Statistics only give probability not certainty. Also...I don't know who you are but I would guess the team's coach and general manager are a better judge than you are as I assume you didn't watch any of the Tampa training camp that year.

Didn't Bergeron play a whole NHL season before the lockout? Or am I imagining things.

Yup, he went right in after his draft. He then was able to play in the AHL in the lockout year instead of having to go back to junior.

Also I agree with you about Bogo, he was a stud in junior and was actually enjoying an exceptional rookie year until his injury. I would say that Bogo's development was slowed far more due to constantly running into injury issues than being placed in before he was ready.

Anywase as a rule I don't like rushing prospects, but I also don't really care to keep players in situations where they are not pushing forward in their development. Its not always clear as to when that point is.

 

[Daximus]

It is what it is. You never know. Statistics only give probability not certainty. Also...I don't know who you are but I would guess the team's coach and general manager are a better judge than you are as I assume you didn't watch any of the Tampa training camp that year.

Didn't Bergeron play a whole NHL season before the lockout? Or am I imagining things.

I never assume just because someone is doing a job, that they are exceptionally good at it or better than I could or would be. Unless I know virtually nothing about it. I know literally 100's of people that are horrible at their job and remain in high paying positions. Simply having experience doesn't automatically make you good.

That point aside there are a large number of Tampa fans that did watch Tampa's TC and believed that Drouin should have been playing in the teams top 9 all season as well as not having been sent down. Just because a coach and/or GM does something doesn't mean it's 100% the right thing to do, case in point: Mark ****ing Stuart.

Yeah many of the guys from the 2003 class played the following season and then a large portion of them had a stint in the AHL during the lockout. I'm not saying correlation equals causation but it's one of the strongest draft classes in NHL history and one of the only ones with most of it's class forced to play a development year in a lower league.