Speculation: 2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion (Part III)

[Mortimer Snerd]

I like Thompson too, but I see a greater need for a D-man there. I very much doubt we take a D with our first pick (BPA will almost certainly be a F), and I am hoping for a couple of fairly well-ranked D man to fall to us with picks 2 & 3.

I see a bunch of D-men who should be available at 22-23, but who do you project as worthy reaches at 36, Grind?

I think that depends entirely on the lottery. If we are 6 - 9 a D could very easily be BPA.

 

[ps241]

Yep. I am still salty about that.

I hate to say it because I know it's a source of contention, but seeing the TSN list does make me hate winning the last 2 games all over again.

At 3rd last we'd almost assuredly be picking one of the top forwards as the odds of going from 3 to 6 is very small. Now that's Vancouver.

Anyway, outside of winning a lottery pick, my first hope is to stay at 6 and have a team ahead of us take a D so we can get Tkachuk or Dubois. I like Chychrun, but the top D seem to all have question marks this year (nowhere close to last years top 3).

At 7 or 8, and assuming it goes exactly as the TSN list, I don't know which way I'd want the Jets to go.

The jury hasn't come back with the guilty charge "yet"....wait for the final verdict boys

Currently we have a 23.49% chance of picking top 3, we have a 41.03% chance to pick top 3 or 6th. Could have been better but ultimately it might work out just fine especially considering how crazy this draft could get after the top 2 or 3 picks.

Lots of time for teeth gnashing Saturday night or even better after our 1st pick is actually completed. I have taken a hiatus from the anger until the results are in.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You are not even the only one on this board who has doubts. I'm on record hoping someone else picks him so we don't.


I'd rather have Fabbro

A lot have doubts. You don't seem to. It seems to me that the talk about Ekblad was similar. There were doubts. Of course him turning out well doesn't indicate that players who generate uncertainty are more likely to succeed. Fabbro could end being the best D in this class. But the experts still seem to be picking the same first 3. They just can't decide which order to put them in.

 

[Huffer]

The jury hasn't come back with the guilty charge "yet"....wait for the final verdict boys

Currently we have a 23.49% chance of picking top 3, we have a 41.03% chance to pick top 3 or 6th. Could have been better but ultimately it might work out just fine especially considering how crazy this draft could get after the top 2 or 3 picks.

Lots of time for teeth gnashing Saturday night or even better after our 1st pick is actually completed. I have taken a hiatus from the anger until the results are in.

No worries PS, I've still got all my fingers and toes crossed!

I'd just love to "know" the worst we could pick is 6, rather than praying that we don't fall too far, and that other teams won't pick the guy the Jets want.

 

[csk]

List is out

That has PLD listed as a LW, I thought he was a C?

 

[surixon]

That has PLD listed as a LW, I thought he was a C?

He can play all forward positions.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I hate to say it because I know it's a source of contention, but seeing the TSN list does make me hate winning the last 2 games all over again.

At 3rd last we'd almost assuredly be picking one of the top forwards as the odds of going from 3 to 6 is very small. Now that's Vancouver.

Anyway, outside of winning a lottery pick, my first hope is to stay at 6 and have a team ahead of us take a D so we can get Tkachuk or Dubois. I like Chychrun, but the top D seem to all have question marks this year (nowhere close to last years top 3).

At 7 or 8, and assuming it goes exactly as the TSN list, I don't know which way I'd want the Jets to go.

That's never going to change. 10 years from now people will be talking about it. Our last 10 games we went 6-2-2, 14 pts. We easily could have been dead last if a few players (Pav! you ******** ) had just played the way they had most of the year. If onlys.

Don't forget we could be 9. That's Chych on McKenzie's list. If it has followed the list to there I think I choose between Jost and Jake Bean. The doubt about Chychrun has finally got to me. I wonder now how far he might actually fall before draft day? Some team probably gets him late and gets a future Norris winner.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Bogo broke his leg early in his rookie season. That may have had a bigger affect on his development than being rushed. He also played injured for much of his second season.

If we could know the absolute truth it is probably injuries that are the big story of his entire career. Not only all the missed games but how much of the time he played has he been injured significantly? If he could have stayed healthy he might have been a very different story. We'll never know though.

 

[Saitama]

Running the draft simulator 200 times yesterday, we didn't end up in 9th once. The vast majority of the times, we ended up 7th.

 

[buggs]

The jury hasn't come back with the guilty charge "yet"....wait for the final verdict boys

Currently we have a 23.49% chance of picking top 3, we have a 41.03% chance to pick top 3 or 6th. Could have been better but ultimately it might work out just fine especially considering how crazy this draft could get after the top 2 or 3 picks.

Lots of time for teeth gnashing Saturday night or even better after our 1st pick is actually completed. I have taken a hiatus from the anger until the results are in.

As frustrating from a fan perspective that we did so well over the last ten games when we were all hoping for a best possible draft position, I'm still fine with the boys competing to the best of their ability. Management did all it bloody well could to limit the team and the young guys overachieved from most perspectives. I will take that 100 times out of 100. Otherwise you end up with the Edmonton Oilers - a team with no soul that frankly needs to be blown up so they re-learn how to win. That team is loaded with young offensive talent. Sure, they're lacking in goaltending (ahem, Winnipeg) and defense (not Winnipeg) but objectively they should be winning games throughout the season by scores of 8-7 (old time hockey). That's a horrible environment I want no part of in Winnipeg.

It's just like when you stop exercising as an adult. A day here, a day there, no problem. Until it becomes a habit. Very hard to climb out of the habit.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Let's pretend for a moment here. Jets win the 1st pick in the draft.

Who do you take? I don't think the answer is as obvious as it was a couple months ago as I think theres a good chance that Patrick Laine has a better career than Auston Matthews.

 

[Constable]

Let's pretend for a moment here. Jets win the 1st pick in the draft.

Who do you take? I don't think the answer is as obvious as it was a couple months ago as I think theres a good chance that Patrick Laine has a better career than Auston Matthews.

I would draft Matthews.

 

[Huffer]

Let's pretend for a moment here. Jets win the 1st pick in the draft.

Who do you take? I don't think the answer is as obvious as it was a couple months ago as I think theres a good chance that Patrick Laine has a better career than Auston Matthews.

It's possible Laine has a better career, he is looking like an absolute beast in a mens league.

For me at this point in time I still go Matthews. Build strength down the middle, and Matthews and Scheifele is likely a great 1/2 punch for 7+ years.

 

[Daximus]

I don't know that he would need 3-4 years, but I'd definitely send him back to juniors next year and possibly the year after.

Nothing wrong with over ripening dmen regardless of draft pedigree. I would be fully comfortable waiting until any defencemen is 21 or 22 years old entering his first full season. There are of course exceptions like Ekblad. But guys that can step in like that come around maybe once a generation.

 

[Daximus]

Bogo broke his leg early in his rookie season. That may have had a bigger affect on his development than being rushed. He also played injured for much of his second season.

I'm a firm believer of waiting on defencemen. There are a few guys that can step in but regardless of weather Bogo would have broken his leg or not, I don't think he's the type of player I would have forced into my lineup the year after drafting him. Atlanta did that with a number of prospects and ruined their development. The biggest part of draft and develop is the developing side. Regardless of draft pedigree I'd anticipate all defencemen picks to not make the team full time until at least 21 or 22 unless they force your hand. Bogo most certainly was not forcing anyone's hand.

 

[EpicGingy]

Nothing wrong with over ripening dmen regardless of draft pedigree. I would be fully comfortable waiting until any defencemen is 21 or 22 years old entering his first full season. There are of course exceptions like Ekblad. But guys that can step in like that come around maybe once a generation.

I have a problem with letting players continue to dominate inferior competition no matter what position they play.

When they're ready they're ready. Personally I find the concept of over ripening to be utter nonsense in terms of player development.

 

[nobody important]

Let's pretend for a moment here. Jets win the 1st pick in the draft.

Who do you take? I don't think the answer is as obvious as it was a couple months ago as I think theres a good chance that Patrick Laine has a better career than Auston Matthews.

And now, arena security is restraining someone who came out of the stands and was rushing toward the Jets draft table with something in his hand. It... it appears to be Mark Chipman...

 

[Whileee]

I have a problem with letting players continue to dominate inferior competition no matter what position they play.

When they're ready they're ready. Personally I find the concept of over ripening to be utter nonsense in terms of player development.

I couldn't agree more. This idea that it's smart to let a player stay in a league that they dominate for an extended period of time doesn't make sense. Sure, they look good when they step right in and perform but there's no reason to think they couldn't have made the jump earlier, in which case you get more of their productive career at the top level. When a player is ready, put them in the NHL right away and you're much more likely to have all of their prime years in the NHL. The only exception might be when you have a logjam at the NHL level. But then it's not an issue of development so much as roster management.

 

[SM]

Running the draft simulator 200 times yesterday, we didn't end up in 9th once. The vast majority of the times, we ended up 7th.

Are people still this dense? Genuinely, do you not understand the concept of attributing percentages to specific outcomes as the exact likelihood that they are to occur over an infinite amount of times?

I was interested by TSN's list this morning and their descriptions of "first layer" and "second layer" picks. I anticipate tons of movement from the expected picks.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I'm a firm believer of waiting on defencemen. There are a few guys that can step in but regardless of weather Bogo would have broken his leg or not, I don't think he's the type of player I would have forced into my lineup the year after drafting him. Atlanta did that with a number of prospects and ruined their development. The biggest part of draft and develop is the developing side. Regardless of draft pedigree I'd anticipate all defencemen picks to not make the team full time until at least 21 or 22 unless they force your hand. Bogo most certainly was not forcing anyone's hand.

I didn't really follow the Thrashers back then but it sounds to me like he had a pretty good training camp and likely earned his roster spot. Perhaps after his return from injury they should have returned him to junior though.

Trouba came in and was ready as a D.If the prospect is ready I don't see why he shouldn't play in the NHL.

 

[pictman]

Let's pretend for a moment here. Jets win the 1st pick in the draft.

Who do you take? I don't think the answer is as obvious as it was a couple months ago as I think theres a good chance that Patrick Laine has a better career than Auston Matthews.

My dream is the Yotes are #2.We swap picks and get one of their up and coming stars and take Laine at 2.Our forward youth would challenge the oilers and we are miles ahead at D.If 1 of our 2 big goalie prospects end up being what we think they might be and Wow, this team is going places.(Yes , the blue koolaide is tasty)

 

[ps241]

That's never going to change. 10 years from now people will be talking about it. Our last 10 games we went 6-2-2, 14 pts. We easily could have been dead last if a few players (Pav! you ******** ) had just played the way they had most of the year. If onlys.

Don't forget we could be 9. That's Chych on McKenzie's list. If it has followed the list to there I think I choose between Jost and Jake Bean. The doubt about Chychrun has finally got to me. I wonder now how far he might actually fall before draft day? Some team probably gets him late and gets a future Norris winner.

We will call that the Filip Forsberg syndrome. He was ranked in the top 2 or 3 prospects most of that year and for some reason on draft day he falls to 11??? That was mind numbing even that day and now it ends up that he is light years ahead of Nail the snail and he is a hell of a player. He should have never fallen that far but sometimes **** happens. It was before my time but I hear that is exactly what happened to Fowler, he was ranked high all year but I think he got overanalized and for some reason organizations choked and he fell to 12th?

I am going to keep my chin and wait for a good result.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

I am warming up to Chychrun....the language around him reminds me of what happened to Ekblad and Seth Jones....I think he can be better than Bogo and closer to Pietrangelo...would be cool if we nabbed him...

 

[Mud Turtle]

Sad to see Logan Brown moving up the rankings. I was really hoping we would get him at 22-23.

 

[Aavco Cup]

At least we'll know #whatdidchevydotoday



Actually now I remember McTavish was in europe watching the U18 during the lottery last year. Maybe that's why they moved it? To avoid conflict with that toutney.