Speculation: 2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion (Part III)

[YWGinYYZ]

Continued from: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2043365

Some posts from the previous thread to get us started:

Edit - lottery odds, from this site: http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...-nhl-draft-lottery-final-rules-and-odds-table

Team|1st|2nd|3rd|4th|5th|6th|7th|8th|9th|10th|11th|12th|13th|14th
Toronto|20|17.486|15.02|47.494|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
Edmonton|13.5|13.071|12.478|35.161|25.79|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
Vancouver|11.5|11.435|11.259|14.196|37.809|13.801|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
Columbus|9.5|9.684|9.816|3.149|27.308|33.186|7.358|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
Calgary|8.5|8.767|9.011|0|9.094|35.465|25.467|3.697|0|0|0|0|0|0
Winnipeg|7.5|7.824|8.15|0|0|17.548|39.309|17.94|1.73|0|0|0|0|0
Arizona|6.5|6.856|7.234|0|0|0|27.866|39.14|11.662|0.742|0|0|0|0
Buffalo|6|6.363|6.756|0|0|0|0|39.223|34.764|6.627|0.267|0|0|0
Montreal|5|5.358|5.579|0|0|0|0|0|51.845|28.582|3.375|0.081|0|0
Colorado|3.5|3.808|4.165|0|0|0|0|0|0|64.049|22.807|1.649|0.022|0
NJD|3|3.28|3.608|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|73.551|15.939|0.62|0.003
Ottawa|2.5|2.747|3.038|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|82.331|9.251|0.133
Carolina|2|2.208|2.455|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|90.108|3.23
Boston|1|1.114|1.252|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|96.634

I think this is a situation where you still draft BPA. The overall depth anywhere is not so great that we can afford to ignore the BPA. That might turn out to be a regret. Take the best possible player, sort out the rest later.

At 4 I can't see us not drafting Tkachuck even though we should PLD. I think Tkachuck is just way too juicy for TNSE at that slot, the sentimental value of the pick plus drafting a half-hometown boy in the 1st round and the marketing potential will swing the scale (I can already imagine the marketing around the outdoor game with the father playing in the alumni game and the son the Heritage Classic right after) in Tk's favor in the eyes of TNSE. PLD will have to do something to make himself be the better player by a mile in TNSE's eyes for them to pass on Tkachuck but that's just my opinion

Keith Tkachuk was the Evander Kane of jets 1.0....I heard nothing but horrible things about him. If the Jets resort to sentimentality to make a pick...well....that's awful.

My understanding reading stuff on this board has been that he started off as Evander Kane-like but then got his act together, redeemed himself with the fans and became an ambassador for the franchise. I could be wrong though.

I am not saying they'll draft him solely for non-hockey reasons but of the race is close, the non-hockey stuff might tip the scale in Tk's favor

If the Jets pick him it will have nothing to do with sentimentality. It will be because they believe he is the BPA at their pick. What attachment does Chevy and the scouting staff have to Keith? Absolutely none. It's a ridiculous notion.

Exactly. He also cost us Selanne. They couldn't afford both. They made the wrong choice and traded Selanne.

It may have happened that way but not till after they left Winnipeg. Don't care what he did in Phoenix or St. Louis.

Nonsense.

The Jets have looked bush league when it comes to certain decisions made overy the years. Picking players in the first round for their marketing potential isn't something any of us need to be concerned about.

If were looking purely at playoff stats both Sergachev and Chychrun have had a better playoffs so far.
Chychrun has been beasting in the playoffs so far. This kid does it all. He's the kind of guy that can put a team on his back and carry them until reinforcements arrive. I suspect Edmonton takes him in the top 4.

Sentimental pick? Tkachuk signed the offer sheet that served as a death-blow to the Jets in Winnipeg.

Also, while I don't think True North wants to be as closely associated with the WHA/NHL team as they are, I think there are old Jets that TNSE likes. I would be surprised to learn that Tkachuk is one of them.



Me too.

Even if you "cheat" the numbers, can't you just say Tkachuk scores better than a player with __% successful cohorts?



I agree. I'm not worried at all that they'll take anyone but BPA in the 1st.

They went into the 2015 draft looking for D, fer chrissake.

Click to read more...

 

[ps241]

Yea Chychrun was #2 to start the season for a reason. Having a shoulder injury coming into the season might have cost him a team Canada spot and it definitley got him off to a slow start. Having him go in the top 3 would not be a shock. I really doubt Edmonton takes him at #1 but maybe at 2 and from 3 on I can see it for sure.

 

[untouchable21]

Chychrun going top 3 would be absolutely HUGE. Would really alter the draft for the teams picking 4-6 because one of the Finns would become available especially if one of those 4-6 teams weren't crazy about a defenseman to begin with.

Their expected BPA (forward) going into the draft may now become the second BPA on their list because they were not expecting a defenseman to go that high.

Good time for Chychrun to leave a lasting impression in their minds and solidify his draft ranking.

 

[Whileee]

I re-ran the PCS for Tkachuk, relaxing the height (to allow 1 inch difference) and the points (to allow 7 NHLE difference). This put him in a cohort of 7, still with 100% success. Basically, it brought in a bunch of high-end players that he has outscored.

I still have considerable skepticism about Tkachuk for all the reasons that have been stated previously, but using the same objective criteria that is being applied to other players he looks okay.

I still think my rankings would probably look something like....

Matthews
Laine
PLD/Pulju
Tkachuk
Juolevi/Chychrun
Sergachyov
Keller / Nylander

 

[Channelcat]

I don't think anyone is overrated Tkachuk based on his name. If anything it has actually cost him. He has gotten here only on shear talent and might be ranked even higher if his name wasnt Tkachuk.

 

[buggs]

I don't think anyone is overrated Tkachuk based on his name. If anything it has actually cost him. He has gotten here only on shear talent and might be ranked even higher if his name wasnt Tkachuk.

It would certainly affect my views on him if his last name was Smith instead.

 

[Grind]

I re-ran the PCS for Tkachuk, relaxing the height (to allow 1 inch difference) and the points (to allow 7 NHLE difference). This put him in a cohort of 7, still with 100% success. Basically, it brought in a bunch of high-end players that he has outscored.

I still have considerable skepticism about Tkachuk for all the reasons that have been stated previously, but using the same objective criteria that is being applied to other players he looks okay.

I still think my rankings would probably look something like....

Matthews
Laine
PLD/Pulju
Tkachuk
Juolevi/Chychrun
Sergachyov
Keller / Nylander

Heheh, it's not PCS but something similar.


His scoring is truly unbelievable but so is his secondary assist numbers.

We're working on pulling data that lets us see primary points and we're hoping at some point T to switch to that.

 

[Grind]

Tkatchuks "drop" in my eyes has nothing at all to do with his name.

It is because

A)PLD is a Center and thus more valuable
B)Tkatchuk has an insane amount of secondary assists which is a red flag
C)PLD has better underlying numbers (as per garret in the last thread)

If PLD's off the board and it's between Chychrun and Tkachuk I don't care nearly as much.

Once PLD's gone I'd be ok with Tkachuk or any of the Dmen.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It would certainly affect my views on him if his last name was Smith instead.

What! Mike Smith's kid? No way!

 

[garret9]

I re-ran the PCS for Tkachuk, relaxing the height (to allow 1 inch difference) and the points (to allow 7 NHLE difference). This put him in a cohort of 7, still with 100% success. Basically, it brought in a bunch of high-end players that he has outscored.

I still have considerable skepticism about Tkachuk for all the reasons that have been stated previously, but using the same objective criteria that is being applied to other players he looks okay.

I still think my rankings would probably look something like....

Matthews
Laine
PLD/Pulju
Tkachuk
Juolevi/Chychrun
Sergachyov
Keller / Nylander

There is some significant differences between PCS and the Projection Project.

 

[Grind]

There is some significant differences between PCS and the Projection Project.

We're not nearly as good

 

[Whileee]

There is some significant differences between PCS and the Projection Project.

Sorry for conflating the two.

How would the two methods compare in their rating of the top 9 players in the draft? Any substantial differences?

 

[Channelcat]

What! Mike Smith's kid? No way!

LOL I was just about to type that. The irony is that Mike Smith drafted Tkachuk, and also Byfuglien!

 

[Bob E]

Is Laine considerably higher than PLD or Pulijujarvi?

If drafting 2nd, is Laine the obvious choice? Or could there be a surprise at 2?

I see the Jets at #2, taking Laine. I also see the Leafs at #3+ taking Tkachuk.

1. CBJ - Matthews
2. Jets - Laine
3. Oilers - Pulijujarvi
4. Leafs - Tkachuk
5. Flames - PLD
6. Canucks - Chyckrun

I can see the Flames coming out pretty well in this draft.

 

[Grind]

Sorry for conflating the two.

How would the two methods compare in their rating of the top 9 players in the draft? Any substantial differences?

hard to know.


right off the hopper i would say our system will place NA/CHL players above the three euro league players.

They would probably then have a more accurate rating of the defensemen.

I believe PCS is proprietary and behind closed doors now so i don't think we'll get any info.

I know last year with where their model was at the time of the 15 draft (i believe it had already undergone some significant changes after the draft and before the hire) we lined up very close for NA forwards, we (projproj) overvalued offensive dmen comparatively and undervalued euro players in general.

their success rate numbers are also wholesale much lower due to data samples (they had pretty much every player where as we only sampled players who had been drafted historically)

 

[Flair Hay]

Chychrun going top 3 would be absolutely HUGE. Would really alter the draft for the teams picking 4-6 because one of the Finns would become available especially if one of those 4-6 teams weren't crazy about a defenseman to begin with.

Their expected BPA (forward) going into the draft may now become the second BPA on their list because they were not expecting a defenseman to go that high.

Good time for Chychrun to leave a lasting impression in their minds and solidify his draft ranking.

As much as the pundits have talked about a top three being set in stone, it isn't set in stone. If the Oilers are picking anywhere 3-5 I don't see how they don't take Chychrun. Maybe even over Laine as well.

For that matter, the more info that pops up with PLD, I find myself wondering if Laine is good enough to take over him. Again. We could use either, but getting a two way center should trump almost everything else.

Very small differences between some of these players. I guess our scouts are going to have to earn their money.

 

[zsam]

As much as the pundits have talked about a top three being set in stone, it isn't set in stone. If the Oilers are picking anywhere 3-5 I don't see how they don't take Chychrun. Maybe even over Laine as well.

IMO, even if they win lottery and draft 1st OA I can see them trading their pick down to get a defenseman, most likely Chychrun. Of course, with all the goodies that come with trading 1st overall.

 

[Whileee]

IMO, even if they win lottery and draft 1st OA I can see them trading their pick down to get a defenseman, most likely Chychrun. Of course, with all the goodies that come with trading 1st overall.

I've thought a bit about this - how easily could the Oilers build a championship team with McDavid and Matthews?

Both would likely command max contracts coming out of their ELC, setting up a situation like Chicago or Pittsburgh trying to build around a couple of superstars that take up a lot of the salary cap. As we've seen, the Penguins have struggled to put together depth, despite having a couple of other top players. Chicago has been really successful with Toews and Kane, but they have some advantages that the Oilers might never have. Keith and Seabrook had been on really team-friendly contracts, as was Crawford. They were also a magnet for good free agents. Would Edmonton (or Winnipeg) hold the same allure and be able to build around a couple of stars? Hard to say.

I almost wonder whether teams like Edmonton (or Winnipeg), might be better to build around either one superstar or a stable of second-tier elite players rather than struggling to build around a couple of very expensive superstars.

It will be fascinating to see what the Oilers end up doing.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

The Oilers will draft Matthews and move other guys. They might be able to keep McDavid/Matthews together for at least 7-8 years and pay them less the 7 per year each. Kane/Toews didn't get the bigger money till after they won the cups.

 

[puck stoppa]

The Oilers will draft Matthews and move other guys. They might be able to keep McDavid/Matthews together for at least 7-8 years and pay them less the 7 per year each. Kane/Toews didn't get the bigger money till after they won the cups.

Yup, no way they don't take Matthews. I like to think that RNH, Hall and Eberle could land a decent dman. I think Chairelli blows it up in summer, interesting to see which D's he targets.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

LOL I was just about to type that. The irony is that Mike Smith drafted Tkachuk, and also Byfuglien!

Small world.

 

[Bwadlay]

Couple of things....

1) Chevy has been known to go "off the board" He may draft someone unexpected with our lottery pick.

2) Our second first round pick will probably be in play. I can see him packaging the Chicago pick for something....maybe a LHD.

 

[Whileee]

The Oilers will draft Matthews and move other guys. They might be able to keep McDavid/Matthews together for at least 7-8 years and pay them less the 7 per year each. Kane/Toews didn't get the bigger money till after they won the cups.

They definitely have to take Matthews, I'm just not sure how they'll build around those two (if they get them). I think they are more like Crosby / Malkin in Pitt, and will probably be in line for top-end contracts coming out of their ELC. Keeping them together won't be as much of a problem as building around them, I would think. The salary cap makes that a bit awkward unless you are a team that is able to convince FAs to sign, and you can get some "hometown discount" contracts. Not sure that the Oilers (or Jets) would have those opportunities.

 

[Aavco Cup]

USA U18 roster for anyone considering travel to GFK

http://www.usahockey.com/page/show/1272700-u-s-under-18-select-team-roster

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

IMO, even if they win lottery and draft 1st OA I can see them trading their pick down to get a defenseman, most likely Chychrun. Of course, with all the goodies that come with trading 1st overall.

If I'm Chiarelli, when I win the first thing I do is offer the 'Yotes first shot at paying too much. Second thing is contact whoever is 4th. I would ask for a good young RHD, a lesser RHD or prospect and their pick. If that's us I hope we tell me (him) to take a hike. That's what I'd be looking for though, Trouba, Postma/Kostalek and draft Chych. The Oil D is fixed.