2014 Draft Discussion (June 27-28 in Philadelphia)

[Claypool]

Some of you are too fixated on size.

 

[AD1066]

Some of you are too fixated on size.

Agreed. Here are the 2013-2014 NHL teams by height (inches). Playoff teams are bolded:

Tampa Bay 74.2
Toronto 74
Winnipeg 74
Phoenix 73.9
Los Angeles 73.8
Boston 73.6
Buffalo 73.6
Florida 73.6
Ottawa 73.6
Philadelphia 73.5
Vancouver 73.5
Washington 73.5
Chicago 73.4
Edmonton 73.4
NY Rangers 73.4
-------------------------
Columbus 73.3
Nashville 73.3
New Jersey 73.3
San Jose 73.3
Anaheim 73.2
Colorado 73.2
Dallas 73.1
Pittsburgh 73.1
Carolina 73
NY Islanders 73
Detroit 72.9
Minnesota 72.8
Calgary 72.7
St. Louis 72.7
Montreal 72.2

Average 73.3

Buffalo, Florida, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Toronto, Washington, Vancouver are all tall.

Meanwhile Montreal just beat Boston while being the shortest team in the league, and Chicago is a tenth of an inch above average. St. Louis, Anaheim, Colorado, San Jose also had successful seasons while being shorter than average.

As for weight:

Los Angeles 209.8
St. Louis 208.5
Washington 207.7
Tampa Bay 207.4
Winnipeg 207.2
Phoenix 206.8
Columbus 206.2
San Jose 205.8
Ottawa 205.2
Toronto 205.1
Carolina 205.1
New Jersey 204.6
Anaheim 204.4
Colorado 204.1
-------------------------
Edmonton 203.6
Chicago 203
Boston 202.7
Nashville 202.6
Pittsburgh 202.1
Detroit 202
NY Rangers 201.8
Montreal 201.7
Dallas 201.6
Philadelphia 201.3
Vancouver 201.2
Florida 200.3
Buffalo 200.2
Calgary 199.9
Minnesota 199.8
NY Islanders 199.3

Average 203.7

Seems to me like you can be successful on both ends of the spectrum as long as you find a working model and build around it and play to your strengths. Chicago's about as average as they come in both regards yet is challenging for a 3rd Cup in five years.

I know this isn't a perfect evaluation because all players carry equal weight here, but realistically we're not going to find that 6'3, 220lb 1st line center talent at 15th overall. The next best thing IMO is to take a high-upside guy like Fabbri if available, and surround him with bigger wingers like Jurco and Mantha. I'd rather prioritize skill (or at least upside) than drafting a guy simply because he's tall.

 

[r0bert8841]

I love the statistics thanks for putting in that work!
I feel like we could get even more accurate numbers if we separated players by positions and then weighted the average by including TOI. That would take alot of work though lol.

I agree with the notion that we shouldn't base all our decisions on height. But if 2 players are close in skill, then height/weight should be the deciding factor.

When it comes to the Wings, I believe the brass knows that they can uncover guys that are insanely skilled but small in the later rounds, and its pretty redundant to also draft them early on. Its because we do find these guys later on is why we tend to draft size in the early rounds. Other teams don't find these guys in the later rounds so they are more willing to draft guys with less size early on.

Thats my theory at least.

 

[Frk It]

Will be interesting to see our first draft with a new Director of Amateur Scouting.

Good thing is.... I like Tyler Wright's recent drafts for CBJ quite a bit:

In 2011, his picks included Boone Jenner, who posted 29 points in his rookie season, Seth Ambroz, a massive power forward who played for the University of Minnesota, and goaltender Anton Forsberg, who started for Modo Ornskoldsvik this past season;

In 2012, his picks included Ryan Murray, one of the Blue Jackets' best defensemen, Oscar Dansk, another superb goaltender, Josh Anderson, another big forward who posted a 50-point season with the OHL's London Knights, and Joonas Korpisalo, another solid goaltender;

And in 2013, his picks included the aforementioned Kerby Rychel, the Guelph Storm's best player and an 89-point-scorer, Alexander Wennberg, a big Swedish grinder, Oliver Bjorkstrand, a forward who posted 109 points with the WHL's Portland Winterhawks, and Marko Dano, an intriguingly gritty Slovakian.

http://kuklaskorner.com/tmr/comments/red-wings-overnight-report-destructive-putin-dance

 

[ricky0034]

I love the statistics thanks for putting in that work!
I feel like we could get even more accurate numbers if we separated players by positions and then weighted the average by including TOI. That would take alot of work though lol.

I agree with the notion that we shouldn't base all our decisions on height. But if 2 players are close in skill, then height/weight should be the deciding factor.

When it comes to the Wings, I believe the brass knows that they can uncover guys that are insanely skilled but small in the later rounds, and its pretty redundant to also draft them early on. Its because we do find these guys later on is why we tend to draft size in the early rounds. Other teams don't find these guys in the later rounds so they are more willing to draft guys with less size early on.

Thats my theory at least.

but the thing is when you're talking about someone like Fabbri then they are NOT close in skill

 

[Frk It]

I like Fabbri, I'd be happy with that pick.

I'm just a little concerned he'd be more like Tyler Ennis, than a guy like Jeff Skinner. Not that that'd be the worst thing in the world.... But when guys have as much skill as Skinner does, they'll go in the top 10 even if they are small.

 

[JmanWingsFan]

Size doesn't matter. Skill matters. Size is just a cherry on top.

 

[iwtb*]

Size is overrated IMO. Size doesn't matter if you don't know how to use it.
I don't know why Babcock & Holland seem to like players who are heavy but who play like they're 180lbs.

They should trade guys who are not only big sized but also play physical. You can play physically even if you're smaller guy.

 

[SoupNazi]

Size is overrated IMO. Size doesn't matter if you don't know how to use it.
I don't know why Babcock & Holland seem to like players who are heavy but who play like they're 180lbs.

They should trade guys who are not only big sized but also play physical. You can play physically even if you're smaller guy.

Babcock is the one who seems to prefer big, heavy guys.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

now of course skill comes first but a big fast skilled guy will find things easier then a small fast and skilled guy going up against big and strong men

less likely to get injured
able to fight for space
able to use his body to create time and space
able to forecheck better
etc

its not an either/or
its not skill vs size

 

[NyquistIsMyGod*]

Still see a trade down. See a center slipping to 22-ish, where the Wings will get down to, and then I see a player like Ho Sang/DeAngelo slipping to round 2.

 

[BStinson]

Still see a trade down. See a center slipping to 22-ish, where the Wings will get down to, and then I see a player like Ho Sang/DeAngelo slipping to round 2.

DeAngelo better slip into the second round if not third round that dude is a head case.

 

[NyquistIsMyGod*]

DeAngelo better slip into the second round if not third round that dude is a head case.

I'm from Sarnia though I've watched very little over recent years. I've heard that quite a bit. A lot actually. What exactly have you heard? I saw DeAngelo as high as 7th in mock drafts, majority of the time in the top 15, etc. Now he seems to have fallen completely off.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I'm from Sarnia though I've watched very little over recent years. I've heard that quite a bit. A lot actually. What exactly have you heard? I saw DeAngelo as high as 7th in mock drafts, majority of the time in the top 15, etc. Now he seems to have fallen completely off.

Multiple suspensions for using slurs (nobody seems to know if they're racial or what) against his teammates. Kid has major anger/self control issues supposedly.

 

[BStinson]

I'm from Sarnia though I've watched very little over recent years. I've heard that quite a bit. A lot actually. What exactly have you heard? I saw DeAngelo as high as 7th in mock drafts, majority of the time in the top 15, etc. Now he seems to have fallen completely off.

Sorry didn't check back with the thread the post is from February when he received an 8 game suspension. That wasn't the first time he has received those kind of criticisms. Yes is a young man but taking him in the first round is a crazy gamble when you could snag someone like Travis Sanheim early second/mid second.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/deangelo-on-scouts-radar-for-wrong-reasons/

 

[NyquistIsMyGod*]

Sorry didn't check back with the thread the post is from February when he received an 8 game suspension. That wasn't the first time he has received those kind of criticisms. Yes is a young man but taking him in the first round is a crazy gamble when you could snag someone like Travis Sanheim early second/mid second.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/deangelo-on-scouts-radar-for-wrong-reasons/

I haven't followed the team heavily/much at all since the Stamkos era. However like I mentioned, he's on most first round mock lists. He was listed as high as #7, and a lot had him in the top 15. I checked some mocks recently (past couple days) and some had him outside of the first round, which shocked me because just a month or so ago he was projected to go so high. His team wasn't in the playoffs either. Just kind of caught me off guard. If Sproul doesn't work out though, DeAngelo could possibly begiven that role.

 

[we like our team*]

Multiple suspensions for using slurs (nobody seems to know if they're racial or what) against his teammates. Kid has major anger/self control issues supposedly.

i'd rather they not draft him if he's like that

 

[Vatican Roulette]

i'd rather they not draft him if he's like that

To be fair, a lot of posters said they didn't want Mantha because of issues prior to the draft.

I am in no way saying they are the same two things.

After the pre-draft interviews, his draft slot should tell everyone a lot.

That said, if he's there in the 3rd round, I'd hope the Wings would swing for the fences.

 

[BStinson]

Third round he could be a steal but if a team takes him in the first round they are gambling they can straighten him out. I personally see him going mid second-late second because the risk and reward is pretty high with him.

 

[NyquistIsMyGod*]

Last night I was looking at some of his reports of the off-ice issues. Couple listed him as a top five skilled player in this draft. Said if this off-ice things weren't there, if he played on a better team, he'd probably be a top five draft pick. A website said Boston or Detroit should grab this team as they very respectable systems/management. Right handed, offensive defenseman, worth the risk IMO. I could see like I said, Wings trading down in the first and picking this kid up with a aquired second.

 

[NyquistIsMyGod*]

Third round he could be a steal but if a team takes him in the first round they are gambling they can straighten him out. I personally see him going mid second-late second because the risk and reward is pretty high with him.

Wasn't there talks of Kabonov going in the first roudn but had major off-ice issues which led to him going in the fourth round to the Islanders? Think Detroit drafted Pulkkinen in the fourth that year.

 

[newfy]

I'm from Sarnia though I've watched very little over recent years. I've heard that quite a bit. A lot actually. What exactly have you heard? I saw DeAngelo as high as 7th in mock drafts, majority of the time in the top 15, etc. Now he seems to have fallen completely off.

I'm also pretty much from Sarnia, the kid is absolutely studly in the offensive zone. I dont reall care about his "issues" if hes available with the wings second rounder. His 16 year old season was extremely impressive, I remember watching and being amazed at his skating ability. Hes also got a bit of a nasty edge which I like. Would not use a first on him though.

As for the slurs, who really cares? The way the OHL is right now he probably called a player a fa66ot or something. Some might care about that, but with his talent I would absolutely not care if they took a risk in the second.

Wasn't there talks of Kabonov going in the first roudn but had major off-ice issues which led to him going in the fourth round to the Islanders? Think Detroit drafted Pulkkinen in the fourth that year.

He was also a threat to bolt to Russia and his teammates decided to kick him off of their team, that was the same year as Pulkinnen. Kabanov seems more worrisome predraft than Deangelo imo.

 

[Frk It]

Multiple suspensions for using slurs (nobody seems to know if they're racial or what) against his teammates. Kid has major anger/self control issues supposedly.

Sounds like he's perfect for the Bruins, and their fans.

 

[ProbertKocur]

If McCann is still on the board at our pick then they should definitely snatch him up

 

[drw02]

After seeing Fabbri the past couple days I would be more than happy with drafting him. Kid has unreal talent, tons of confidence and his game is quite refined for such a young player. His size just isn't an issue at all imo. He'll probably get up to 5-11 anyway when all is said and done. Kid absolutely reminds me of Claude Giroux.