Proposal: Zibanejad to the Avs

[John Mandalorian]

Problem is that we can't really trade that pick until after the lottery to make sure it doesn't end up top 4 or 5. So including any rentals in a Zibby trade wouldn't work timing-wise.

Plus we'd actually be pretty damn deep with a Zibby being added for futures. Zibby, Soderberg & Kamenev would be a strong center lineup behind the top line and we'd have a good set of wingers for them with Jost, Kaut, Compher, Kerfoot, Calvert, Nieto, Bourque & AJ Greer...assuming that we just brought all of those guys back without pursuing Panarin/Stone or even the Silfverberg tier of FA wingers; after letting Wilson & Andrighetto walk.

Jost has been really good on the wing. Compher is killing it this year & like Jost is a good two-way winger. Kerfoot is following a 43 point rookie season by pacing for 59. Kaut has been producing like Zadina & Necas in the AHL in his draft+1 year and has really been on a tear since getting acclimated; scoring a lot of clutch goals like Mikko did during his AHL tenure. All three of Calvert, Nieto & Bourque are good forecheckers / PKers to round out the bottom 6. Greer is looking like he's going to earn a chance to win the LW spot next to Kamenev sooner or later with the way he's playing in the AHL.

Plus we'd have Bowers (along with Meloche) in the AHL, being prepared to battle Kamenev to be Soda's eventual replacement, as the top call-up option(s):

Landy - MacK - Rantanen
Jost - Zibanejad - Kerfoot
Calvert - Soderberg - Kaut
Greer - Kamenev - Comph
( Nieto / Bourque )

Girard - Johnson
Zadorov - Barrie
Ian Cole - Makar
( Barberio )

( Varlamov?)
Grubauer
Francouz

Don’t you think there are other trades that can be made that accomplish a fast tracked upgrade without giving up so much? And what if Zibanejad doesn’t perform as well as hoped? Why should Colorado give up so much if he doesn’t perform? There should be conditions with this.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Even if the condition was something like: the Ottawa pick becomes our 1st in 2019 & 2020 + a B-prospect / 2nd rounder if the Ottawa pick ends up top 4 or 5 & we keep it; I'd imagine that would kill its value significantly...at least for a team like NYR who needs quality over quantity if they're selling Zibby or Kreider; given the picks they're going to pick up for Zucc & Hayes by this year's TDL and the pipeline they've already stocked up.

Was looking through their prospects/young talent the other day and even beyond Kravtsov & Miller last spring, they've nabbed a number of kids I was really high on. They need that talent to develop and to keep adding to it through this rebuild, but what they're really missing is a blueliner that has a good shot at being a #1 and another 1C prospect to cover for the possibility of Chytil ending up better on the wing...and those kind of prospects you find in the top 10, not with multiple later 1sts & a 2nd.

Ok so top 2 protected lol. It really is a bitch trying to figure out a trade that works this season.

Zibby's contract really helps if we have to give Mikko like 9-10M too.

 

[cgf]

Don’t you think there are other trades that can be made that accomplish a fast tracked upgrade without giving up so much? And what if Zibanejad doesn’t perform as well as hoped? Why should Colorado give up so much if he doesn’t perform? There should be conditions with this.

Less than a 6th-10th pick + Timmins or our pick + Timmins + Kerfoot/Bowers? Not really, at least not someone who I think would be good enough...which need not be Zibby in particular, just someone of his caliber or better.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Less than a 6th-10th pick + Timmins or our pick + Timmins + Kerfoot/Bowers? Not really, at least not someone who I think would be good enough...which need not be Zibby in particular, just someone of his caliber or better.

Someone with one year left on a bad contract at the trade deadline isn’t a better option? This should require giving up less.

This proposal isn’t without some appeal but it doesn’t guarantee a deep playoff run. At the same time, a deep run might be possible with what we currently have. Even with less valuable pieces, this has risk.

 

[cgf]

Someone with one year left on a bad contract at the trade deadline isn’t a better option? This should require giving up less.

This proposal isn’t without some appeal but it doesn’t guarantee a deep playoff run. At the same time, a deep run might be possible with what we currently have. Even with less valuable pieces, this has risk.

Duchene is the only one who fits that criteria and is good enough

I’d rather pay more for a long term solution who’s locked in at a good price like Zibby, Tro or Coots. Although his contract wouldn't cause me to pass on Drae, as the fit with our core isn’t more important.

Also don’t think we can make a deep run without great Center depth or an elite #1 blueliner. So I don’t see making a run with what we’ve got as a very realistic possibility

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Yeah I just don’t think that analogy works. We don’t need a bunch of small things to be finished up before we are ready to run, we need 1 big thing.

Like if you had all of those smaller things done or almost done...just waiting for the paint/caulk to dry...but were still missing the chandelier for the foyer or something, then that would make sense.

We can already move our furniture in and live in this house comfortably, hell we can even have company over for a nationally-televised matchup and impress them with what we do already have...but it isn’t done and ready for whatever the homeowner’s parallel to making serious cup runs would be, until that last big piece arrives & is installed.

I think you underestimate just how big of a project installing trim is, due to not being a homeowner. It's not moving a wall, but it's the kind of project that requires you to really take your time and be almost perfect in measurement and execution if you want to have a high end result. Based on where the team is right now, I think that lines up pretty well with our quest to trying to find a 2C. Yes, we can definitely show off what we've done already to impress people with our finished work, there's just still at least one pretty big project and a few little ones left to do before we're actually done with the "building" portion of the rebuild.

 

[cgf]

I think you underestimate just how big of a project installing trim is, due to not being a homeowner. It's not moving a wall, but it's the kind of project that requires you to really take your time and be almost perfect in measurement and execution if you want to have a high end result. Based on where the team is right now, I think that lines up pretty well with our quest to trying to find a 2C. Yes, we can definitely show off what we've done already to impress people with our finished work, there's just still at least one pretty big project and a few little ones left to do before we're actually done with the "building" portion of the rebuild.

I don't wanna get into the pedantry of the analogy lol...as I'm well aware of how tedious having to install trim is, having worked for some family friends who remodeled houses to flip while between jobs...my point was that there aren't a few little projects that still need to be done, there's just one last piece and then everything will be ready in principle.

Sure once we're actually making our runs we may find that we need some tweaks and make a couple hockey trades to tweak the supporting cast, but that's a basic aspect of contending. Not a sign that we're still rebuilding. We're done rebuilding; we're just waiting for that 1b C or #1 blueliner to let us start contending.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I don't wanna get into the pedantry of the analogy lol...as I'm well aware of how tedious having to install trim is, having worked for some family friends who remodeled houses to flip while between jobs...my point was that there aren't a few little projects that still need to be done, there's just one last piece and then everything will be ready in principle.

Sure once we're actually making our runs we may find that we need some tweaks and make a couple hockey trades to tweak the supporting cast, but that's a basic aspect of contending. Not a sign that we're still rebuilding. We're done rebuilding; we're just waiting for that 1b C or #1 blueliner to let us start contending.

And my point is that, while I agree there's a big piece left to put in place (with several different valid ways of getting it there), there are also quite a few little projects that are off to a good start (Girard, Jost, Compher, Kamanev, Kerfoot, etc.) but aren't quite done yet, and there are also some bigger projects not far down the road that will also need to be addressed (replacing Soda, EJ, Cole, Varly, etc.) before we get to the point where we're just making tweaks to the roster. The little projects that still need to be finished up before we know if they are good enough are why I'm OK with not rushing out to get an expensive 2C right now, and the future projects that could end up being expensive are why I want to keep as many assets in reserve as possible.

 

[cgf]

And my point is that, while I agree there's a big piece left to put in place (with several different valid ways of getting it there), there are also quite a few little projects that are off to a good start (Girard, Jost, Compher, Kamanev, Kerfoot, etc.) but aren't quite done yet, and there are also some bigger projects not far down the road that will also need to be addressed (replacing Soda, EJ, Cole, Varly, etc.) before we get to the point where we're just making tweaks to the roster. The little projects that still need to be finished up before we know if they are good enough are why I'm OK with not rushing out to get an expensive 2C right now, and the future projects that could end up being expensive are why I want to keep as many assets in reserve as possible.

But there’s the whole question of timelines & scheduling. Winning a cup is hard and requires timelines to align to maximize your chances. Jost / Jimmothy / Kaut / Kamenev / Kerfoot should be ready to fill out the supporting cast by the 2019-2020 postseason. If not that’s one those minor deadline tweaks you make at the 2020 TDL if we’ve got that last piece, or in the summer of 2021, but we’d be ready to make a credible run and gain that experience where we really see how close we are to winning it all. There’s only so much you can learn in the regular season + 1st round.

That’s why adding that 1b C this summer would be the best timing for us, those secondary kids would still have 1.75 regular seasons and a playoff series to get ready for that first real run. Our vets would still have plenty of runway and our core would still be in their primes.

 

[Nopuckluck]

Trust me from a Rangers fan who just lived through it the past decade. When you get a shot yo contend do it. Too much parity now. Take your chances while you have them. Why wait for tomorrow. Possible injuries lockouts etc.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

But there’s the whole question of timelines & scheduling. Winning a cup is hard and requires timelines to align to maximize your chances. Jost / Jimmothy / Kaut / Kamenev / Kerfoot should be ready to fill out the supporting cast by the 2019-2020 postseason. If not that’s one those minor deadline tweaks you make at the 2020 TDL if we’ve got that last piece, or in the summer of 2021, but we’d be ready to make a credible run and gain that experience where we really see how close we are to winning it all. There’s only so much you can learn in the regular season + 1st round.

That’s why adding that 1b C this summer would be the best timing for us, those secondary kids would still have 1.75 regular seasons and a playoff series to get ready for that first real run. Our vets would still have plenty of runway and our core would still be in their primes.

Assuming the secondary kids keep developing this season, and there's someone available this summer that we actually want at a price we want/are able to pay, you very well could be right about this summer being the ideal time to make a move. But, I still think it's probably 6 months too early to say with any level of certainty whether the secondary kids will be ready next year. And, just because it's the ideal time for us, doesn't mean that there's going to be a team out there willing to give it to us for what we want to spend. I still think 2020 is going to present more/better opportunities, and we'll be in a much better position to jump on them.

 

[avsfan09]

Trust me from a Rangers fan who just lived through it the past decade. When you get a shot yo contend do it. Too much parity now. Take your chances while you have them. Why wait for tomorrow. Possible injuries lockouts etc.

Exactly but I think the debate revolves around whether or not paying up for a 2c actually makes us contend. We are close Imo but still have to be a little more patient.

 

[cgf]

Assuming the secondary kids keep developing this season, and there's someone available this summer that we actually want at a price we want/are able to pay, you very well could be right about this summer being the ideal time to make a move. But, I still think it's probably 6 months too early to say with any level of certainty whether the secondary kids will be ready next year. And, just because it's the ideal time for us, doesn't mean that there's going to be a team out there willing to give it to us for what we want to spend. I still think 2020 is going to present more/better opportunities, and we'll be in a much better position to jump on them.

If there's no one available then there's no one available. I'm not suggesting we put Makar on the table just because this summer would be best.

As for the secondary kids, I don't think we really need much more from them than what they are already providing if we add a true 1b C like Zibby...plus we'd have another 55+ games to watch their growth. And again, if they regress next year requiring some tweaking, then that's just part of contending.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Trust me from a Rangers fan who just lived through it the past decade. When you get a shot yo contend do it. Too much parity now. Take your chances while you have them. Why wait for tomorrow. Possible injuries lockouts etc.

Completely agree that you go for it when you have a shot, so you don't miss the opportunity. But, you can also miss the opportunity by taking your shot before you're ready, which is why I'm advocating taking the time to properly assess things before we try to force things.

 

[cgf]

Completely agree that you go for it when you have a shot, so you don't miss the opportunity. But, you can also miss the opportunity by taking your shot before you're ready, which is why I'm advocating taking the time to properly assess things before we try to force things.

That applies more to rentals. What I’m arguing for would be a long term solution, not a single shot. Plus we’d still be loaded with young talent, picks n prospects, so it’s not even like I’m suggesting we risk the future.

I get the “spending assets we may not need to spend” argument, even though I think that in this case it is over-cautious. But I don’t see how we’d be risking “taking our shot too soon” if we brought in a long term solution who was Landy-aged or younger.

If Kamenev or Bowers ends up becoming a viable 2C then we’ll just having amazing C-depth when they replace Soda on the 3rd line and we’ll still have plenty of young talent in the pipeline for future reinforcements + assets to make any additional tweaks if needed

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

That applies more to rentals. What I’m arguing for would be a long term solution, not a single shot. Plus we’d still be loaded with young talent, picks n prospects, so it’s not even like I’m suggesting we risk the future.

I get the “spending assets we may not need to spend” argument, even though I think that in this case it is over-cautious. But I don’t see how we’d be risking “taking our shot too soon” if we brought in a long term solution who was Landy-aged or younger.

If Kamenev or Bowers ends up becoming a viable 2C then we’ll just having amazing C-depth when they replace Soda on the 3rd line and we’ll still have plenty of young talent in the pipeline for future reinforcements + assets to make any additional tweaks if needed

But, it still applies to big trades, because you can't force the right players to be available when you want to take your shot. And, I agree with you that a young, long term 1b would likely put us over the top. But, Ottawa gave up more than you're budgeting in exchange for a 26 year old Duchene with only 2 years left on his contract and a demand to be traded. Nashville gave up Girard-Kamanev-2nd for a pending UFA, 28 year old Kyle Turris. Why would a team give up the kind of player we want in exchange for a 6-10OA pick and a recent 2nd round pick with a concussion history? Even if the mystery box is the 6OA pick, I don't see a 26 or under 1B/2A C on a team friendly contract that I expect to become available for that kind of return. There's just no real incentive for those guys to be traded, unless there's a contract or performance issue. I know we wouldn't have given up Duchene for just a pick + prospect when he was still 25, had 3+ years left on his contract and hadn't demanded a trade, so I don't expect any other team to accept so little for their <25 year 1b C either. So, in order to get the 1b that fits your metrics, we'd need to add more to the offer, depleting our prospect pool more than we should. Or, to stick to your budget, we'd probably need to aim quite a bit lower than Zibby, which would be much more of a lateral move. Expecting to find the kind trade that makes your scenario possible seems just as risky as expecting Makar to step into the NHL next year and be a stud 1D.

So, unless the perfect trade presents itself this summer, we really should just keep building through the draft, and letting the youngsters continue to compete with each other for ice time.

 

[cgf]

But, it still applies to big trades, because you can't force the right players to be available when you want to take your shot. And, I agree with you that a young, long term 1b would likely put us over the top. But, Ottawa gave up more than you're budgeting in exchange for a 26 year old Duchene with only 2 years left on his contract and a demand to be traded. Nashville gave up Girard-Kamanev-2nd for a pending UFA, 28 year old Kyle Turris. Why would a team give up the kind of player we want in exchange for a 6-10OA pick and a recent 2nd round pick with a concussion history? Even if the mystery box is the 6OA pick, I don't see a 26 or under 1B/2A C on a team friendly contract that I expect to become available for that kind of return. There's just no real incentive for those guys to be traded, unless there's a contract or performance issue. I know we wouldn't have given up Duchene for just a pick + prospect when he was still 25, had 3+ years left on his contract and hadn't demanded a trade, so I don't expect any other team to accept so little for their <25 year 1b C either. So, in order to get the 1b that fits your metrics, we'd need to add more to the offer, depleting our prospect pool more than we should. Or, to stick to your budget, we'd probably need to aim quite a bit lower than Zibby, which would be much more of a lateral move. Expecting to find the kind trade that makes your scenario possible seems just as risky as expecting Makar to step into the NHL next year and be a stud 1D.

So, unless the perfect trade presents itself this summer, we really should just keep building through the draft, and letting the youngsters continue to compete with each other for ice time.

Like I've repeatedly said, if the trade isn't there then it isn't there and we have no choice but to wait for it to materialize.


As for the cost, Dutchy & RyJo are really the only comparables that don't compare favorably to what I've suggested and there the issue is more in the type of return targetted; as RyJo was traded 1-for-1 and Dutchy was traded for a ton of pieces that at the time no one expected any of to become as valuable a #6-10 pick.

Stepan was traded by the Rangers for a similar price to what I've suggested, and that was with Raanta being attached as well...this being the comparable that I think is most applicable. The ROR trades compare favorably to the packages I've proposed as well; and same for the Schenn trade. It's the Stepan + Raanta trade though that I'm looking at most closely; Raanta's value was probably close to Grubauer's this past summer...i.e. a late 1st or a 2nd & eating a significant cap-dump...and Stepan was much more proven than Zibby; yet they only returned a package comparable to what I'm suggesting*. Not even getting into the pricetag that Henchy suggested that Zibby would require on our board, which I am most certainly trumping with either iteration.

So I don't think it's unreasonable to think we'll be able to find a trade for the caliber of C I'm talking about with the kind of packages I'm suggesting...whether it ends up any of the particular C's I've thrown out there or not. If it doesn't manifest for us, then sure, we should follow your plan. But that's why I want to Joe to be laying the groundwork now; whether that groundwork ends up paying off in the summer of 2019, the 2020 TDL, or even the summer of 2020.


As for the motivation for NYR, they're still in the selling-off-&-tanking phase of their rebuild for another season or two. Zucc & Hayes should get shipped out by the TDL, which would leave Zibby & Kreider as the only prime aged pieces of value left for them to sell...and with Chytil / Andersson / Howden & a likely top 10 pick of their own in this forward-rich draft; their young centers should make Zibby expendable the way ours did for us.

K'Andre Miller's their only blueline prospect that I really love...which is why I think they'd use a pick on a 1C prospect and one on Byram or whoever is able to challenge him for the top blueliner spot, if their own pick ended up in the top 10 as well...but they've got a lot of forward prospects that I rated highly. And the blueliners would suddenly become very intriguing if they had Byram, Timmins & Miller on their way to join Skjei, Shatty & Pionk, rather than just K'Andre alone.


*assuming that Timmins gets back on the ice & looks like himself before the season is over; so that NYR's scouts can check in on him before the trade.

 

[Mac Attack]

I think that comment took up a whole page by itself.

 

[cgf]

I think that comment took up a whole page by itself.

wtf are you doing in IWantSakicAsMyGM & I's PM conversation?

 

[flyfysher]

wtf are you doing in IWantSakicAsMyGM & I's PM conversation?

I was watching the game the other day and thought about Zibs. Then I saw Zibs had two assists. Only the Avs top line scored. It made me think about our discussions. I'd really like to see JB put together Jost-Kerf and JTC for 2-3 weeks before making a decision on the necessity of upgrading the Avs second line. Jost has looked better as of late.

 

[cgf]

I was watching the game the other day and thought about Zibs. Then I saw Zibs had two assists. Only the Avs top line scored. It made me think about our discussions. I'd really like to see JB put together Jost-Kerf and JTC for 2-3 weeks before making a decision on the necessity of upgrading the Avs second line. Jost has looked better as of late.

I'd be curious to see a Jost - Kamenev - Compher/Kerfoot line for a couple of weeks as well. Kam has really come along well this season, and he's shown a pretty high skill level & creativity in his young career; so I'd be very curious to see how he'd do in a more offensive role with our best non-top line wingers.

Ultimately I don't think any iteration would end up working out well enough for us to a win a cup, but I would like to see Bednar try stacking that "top line of the bottom 9" this season because I do really like Jost on the left wing of that line & it's hard not to love Jimmothy's game.

 

[Jerzey Devil]

Bernmeister has some competition. Although bern doesn’t get as mad about the feedback.

 

[flyfysher]

I'd be curious to see a Jost - Kamenev - Compher/Kerfoot line for a couple of weeks as well. Kam has really come along well this season, and he's shown a pretty high skill level & creativity in his young career; so I'd be very curious to see how he'd do in a more offensive role with our best non-top line wingers.

Ultimately I don't think any iteration would end up working out well enough for us to a win a cup, but I would like to see Bednar try stacking that "top line of the bottom 9" this season because I do really like Jost on the left wing of that line & it's hard not to love Jimmothy's game.

Why do you believe that is the case?

 

[cgf]

Why do you believe that is the case?

That should’ve included an asterisk to say in the next few years.

Down the line, if Makar becomes a high end #1, then I do think we could win a cup with those guys formulating the 2nd line...assuming our top line is still as dominant then. But to have a real shot at the cup next season, we need a 1b C to give us great Center depth.

And I say that because teams have shown that you can win cups without a legit #1 if you can roll 3 good pairings, have elite firepower up front & are stacked down the middle. As currently constructed we lack the stacked down the middle part of that equation, but if we added Zibby to MacK, Soda & Kam, we’d be there.

 

[flyfysher]

That should’ve included an asterisk to say in the next few years. Down the line, if Makar becomes a high end #1, then I do think we could win a cup with those guys formulating the 2nd line...assuming our top line is still as dominant then. But to have a real shot at the cup next season, we need a 1b C to give us great Center depth.

And I say that because teams have shown that you can win cups without a legit #1 if you can roll 3 good pairings, have elite firepower up front & are stacked down the middle. As currently constructed we lack the stacked down the middle part of that equation, but if we added Zibby to MacK, Soda & Kam, we’d be there.

I don't purport to know what the answer is but I agree the Avs need to develop secondary scoring as well as aggressive two way play on their lower lines. As good as the Avs top line is, it isn't enough to carry the team alone all the way to a SC.