Zach Werenski - Update: Signs 3-yr ELC (p. 15)

[CBJWerenski8]

Yeah, he looked better last night aside from the 3rd period, but everyone sucked in the 3rd.

 

[major major]

The fabled second wind!

It's actually here!

 

[Cowumbus]

based on this season what do you think Werenski is right now, and what do you think his ceiling is?

Personally I think he is a #2/3 dman, probably will be a solid 1D eventually though. Needs to work on his D game a bit, the offense is there though.

Hot take: Savard could be a top pair guy on more than a few teams in the NHL.

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

Werenski has been more than adequate defensively. He's very underrated with his stick and in 1on1 situations. Reminds me a lot of Doughty and a bit of Karlsson (which is funny because I see a lot of Hedman in Jones - imagine how good these two will be together in the long run)

 

[major major]

based on this season what do you think Werenski is right now, and what do you think his ceiling is?

Personally I think he is a #2/3 dman, probably will be a solid 1D eventually though. Needs to work on his D game a bit, the offense is there though.

Hot take: Savard could be a top pair guy on more than a few teams in the NHL.

Right right now? Werenski is a solid #2D. But he definitely had a mid season lull I'm excising from that evaluation.

Long term upside is no less than Norris.

I think Savard is a top pair quality D generically, not just on "some teams" but perhaps on an average team.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

His defensive game is coming, its fine right now, but he really needs to get stronger. He's been getting beaten up on recently, and the hits he's taking seem to be wearing on him. Once he gets stronger he'll be able to fight off these hits and won't get hurt on them. He's only 19 so this is normal.

 

[Doug19]

#1 D already

 

[Old Guy]

based on this season what do you think Werenski is right now, and what do you think his ceiling is?

Personally I think he is a #2/3 dman, probably will be a solid 1D eventually though. Needs to work on his D game a bit, the offense is there though.

Hot take: Savard could be a top pair guy on more than a few teams in the NHL.

I think Werenski is a 19 year old with 64 games of experience playing like a 22/23 year old with 200+ games of experience. The only knock on him is he has not developed his strength and stamina for the NHL game. His 40 game NCAA seasons has not prepared him for the grind and travel of an 82 (and more) game NHL season. That's not his fault -he just has to grow into that frame.

He has the offensive game that Norris trophy voters love. A shut down guy like David Savard will just never be considered for the award when guys like Eric Karlsson play in the league. Werenski will hit an elite level in 1-2 years after working with the skating coach and guys like Kenny McCudden and Brad Shaw. Those coaches will help him get to the point that he will be mentioned as one of the Top 5 defensemen in the league.

We will look back at be amazed at what he has become at the ripe old age of 22.

 

[blahblah]

Hot take: Savard could be a top pair guy on more than a few teams in the NHL.

rolf, thanks for the laugh. If this were true it would speak to just how bad those teams defenses are.

Werenski is going to be a top pairing guy for a long time.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

The talk of him wearing down is silly. He's 6'2'' 215. He's a BIG kid, he has boat loads of stamina. He's gone to Torts and has asked to play more and be involved more. He played 60 games last year, not 40. Also, the last 2 games he's been REALLY physical. He cross-checked the hell out of a Devil from behind the net all the way out to the blueline, and he's starting to be more confident in his physicality.

 

[EspenK]

The talk of him wearing down is silly. He's 6'2'' 215. He's a BIG kid, he has boat loads of stamina. He's gone to Torts and has asked to play more and be involved more. He played 60 games last year, not 40. Also, the last 2 games he's been REALLY physical. He cross-checked the hell out of a Devil from behind the net all the way out to the blueline, and he's starting to be more confident in his physicality.

I think the bolded is a real key. While I don't think we want Werenski & Jones to be the Bruise Brothers, as they take more advantage of their size they will kick it up another notch or two in everyone's mind.

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

I think the bolded is a real key. While I don't think we want Werenski & Jones to be the Bruise Brothers, as they take more advantage of their size they will kick it up another notch or two in everyone's mind.

I hope to look back on this quote 10 years from now and realize how prophetic i think the statement is. Stevens and Neidermayer didn't physically beat people up but they certainly wore the other teams top lines out & then they scored when given the opportunity.

 

[Hello Johnny]

rolf, thanks for the laugh. If this were true it would speak to just how bad those teams defenses are.

Werenski is going to be a top pairing guy for a long time.

I know you've historically been critical of Savard – which I get, as he's had merely an ok career prior to this year – but if you don't think he's playing top pair quality this season you're out to lunch.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

I know you've historically been critical of Savard – which I get, as he's had merely an ok career prior to this year – but if you don't think he's playing top pair quality this season you're out to lunch.

He's probably watched 3 games. He just "knows", don't ya know.

 

[MoeBartoli]

The talk of him wearing down is silly. He's 6'2'' 215. He's a BIG kid, he has boat loads of stamina. He's gone to Torts and has asked to play more and be involved more. He played 60 games last year, not 40. Also, the last 2 games he's been REALLY physical. He cross-checked the hell out of a Devil from behind the net all the way out to the blueline, and he's starting to be more confident in his physicality.

I agree with your point about him being more physical of late. At the same time CR's point about the grind of the long season is also on point. Like CR, I also anticipate Norris-level status and see him being further along than Seth at 22. Don't take that to mean he'll be better than Seth though he might. But I expect Seth will get even better during that same period.....Nice situation for the Jackets.

 

[Viqsi]

He's probably watched 3 games. He just "knows", don't ya know.

I'm fairly certain he does more than that, unless something radical has happened lately. I'm a bit bewildered myself at his current evaluation of Savard, but let's be fair.

 

[Cowumbus]

rolf, thanks for the laugh. If this were true it would speak to just how bad those teams defenses are.

Werenski is going to be a top pairing guy for a long time.

I have been hard on Savard too but the guy has been playing great imo

 

[blahblah]

I know you've historically been critical of Savard – which I get, as he's had merely an ok career prior to this year – but if you don't think he's playing top pair quality this season you're out to lunch.

He hasn't, nor will he. He's no top pairing. We can have our fan boy blinders on all we want.

I still see some of the same nonsense. The puck will come to him in the defensive zone on the boards and he'll just flip it around the boards not knowing if anyone is close to him or even if there is a Jacket along the boards to receive the puck. I can't count how many times he's given up possession of the puck for no good reason.

He'll make a good one-on-one move in the offensive zone, then he'll have no idea what do with it it then. He'll end up with some type of turnover, when if nothing else he has a shot on net.

He's not very quick. If he's caught flat footed he's toast. Torts remark on him was kind of spot on eariler in the season. He seems like he's scrambling to get in the play (paraphrase) and he'll just end up there.

That's not to say he hasn't been a good player this season, but a true top pairing guy? No. He just doesn't have the decision making nor the speed to take on that role. Jones and Werenski are far more skilled and far more intelligent players. He's certainly not a puck mover. He's probably the worst stretch passer on this team by a mile on defense.

But hey, to each their own. I know people around here love him, which is fine. But I will continue to shake my head as people saying he's a top pairing guy.

 

[major major]

He hasn't, nor will he. He's no top pairing. We can have our fan boy blinders on all we want.

I still see some of the same nonsense. The puck will come to him in the defensive zone on the boards and he'll just flip it around the boards not knowing if anyone is close to him or even if there is a Jacket along the boards to receive the puck. I can't count how many times he's given up possession of the puck for no good reason.

He'll make a good one-on-one move in the offensive zone, then he'll have no idea what do with it it then. He'll end up with some type of turnover, when if nothing else he has a shot on net.

He's not very quick. If he's caught flat footed he's toast. Torts remark on him was kind of spot on eariler in the season. He seems like he's scrambling to get in the play (paraphrase) and he'll just end up there.

That's not to say he hasn't been a good player this season, but a true top pairing guy? No. He just doesn't have the decision making nor the speed to take on that role. Jones and Werenski are far more skilled and far more intelligent players. He's certainly not a puck mover. He's probably the worst stretch passer on this team by a mile on defense.

But hey, to each their own. I know people around here love him, which is fine. But I will continue to shake my head as people saying he's a top pairing guy.

Savard is an ugly skater but he's actually just quick enough. That's what Torts meant. He very rarely gets beat. And in fact, as we saw last week, he can catch a guy on a breakaway!

I don't see the mistakes that you see. He knows what he's doing when he dangles in from the point - you can see in his high P/60. Savard won the CHL D-man of the year award for his offensive smarts, that was when he was a fat kid who didn't know how to play defense! He's not a good stretch passer, but that's been de-emphasized this year now that almost all of our breakouts seem to be along the wall.

If he was as bad a possession player as you claim, it would be easy to see statistically. Instead he's our best possession player - about the same raw stats as Werenski and Jones, but adjusted for the fact that Savard is on shutdown duty (40% d-zone starts) he is ahead. That of course doesn't capture the number of times "Savard saved a goal". I put it in quotation marks because we've been saying it every game thread lately.

 

[major major]

Savard is 39th among all D in Corsi%, which though certainly above the 60th rank "top pair" benchmark, might not seem that impressive. It suddenly looks a lot more impressive when you consider that none of the D-men above him or near him on that list have anywhere close to his level of shutdown deployment. Check the D-zone FO% column.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...750&teamid=0&type=corsi&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

 

[theD86]

major-major how dare you present facts.......... LOL!!

 

[Cowumbus]

Brent Burns leads the league in turning the puck over, so I don't get the shade being thrown at Savard for it. Not sure how I feel about that stat.

 

[Forepar]

Savard is 39th among all D in Corsi%, which though certainly above the 60th rank "top pair" benchmark, might not seem that impressive. It suddenly looks a lot more impressive when you consider that none of the D-men above him or near him on that list have anywhere close to his level of shutdown deployment. Check the D-zone FO% column.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...750&teamid=0&type=corsi&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

I realize this is off ZW thread topic, but legitimate question - How are the stats for Savard significantly different than those for Jack Johnson? I would have thought that they would be almost identical, as neither of them has seen much PP time, and they both see PK time. Are JJ's Corsi stats that skewed by the stretch of games that Savard missed? Or is it that the difference between 52.0% for Savard and 49.7% for Johnson is not that statistically significant.
I also see that JJ's D-Zone FO% is over 40% - even higher than Savards.
It isn't just that D around Savard's ranking don't have high D-Zone starts, the same could be said for JJ at 77th on the list.

I am not arguing JJ is first pair D. I think Savard is close, but in today's game, more offense is "expected" from a #1 pair D-man. (Expected by whom? That would be a good question).

The appropriate with/without stats might shed some light on that, but I can't find them this morning. The one thing I am sure of is that the Savard-JJ pair has been lights out for most of the year. Don't care if called #1 pair, #2 pair, shutdown pair, etc... Just glad they are both on our side. They are good together, and it has resulted in proper slotting of all D. I am not sure ZW is ready for full #1 pair in PO, but a) glad we will get to find out; and b) Murray has played some #1 pair at end of games (hopefully he has just a minor ding).

 

[major major]

Brent Burns leads the league in turning the puck over, so I don't get the shade being thrown at Savard for it. Not sure how I feel about that stat.

Yeah it largely indicates how much a player carries the puck. Takeaways on the other hand. .. (Mark Stone is amazing).

I'm not sure how this came up though - Savard only has 34 statistical giveaways this year. That's on the low end for top 4D.

 

[major major]

I realize this is off ZW thread topic, but legitimate question - How are the stats for Savard significantly different than those for Jack Johnson? I would have thought that they would be almost identical, as neither of them has seen much PP time, and they both see PK time. Are JJ's Corsi stats that skewed by the stretch of games that Savard missed? Or is it that the difference between 52.0% for Savard and 49.7% for Johnson is not that statistically significant.
I also see that JJ's D-Zone FO% is over 40% - even higher than Savards.
It isn't just that D around Savard's ranking don't have high D-Zone starts, the same could be said for JJ at 77th on the list.

I am not arguing JJ is first pair D. I think Savard is close, but in today's game, more offense is "expected" from a #1 pair D-man. (Expected by whom? That would be a good question).

The appropriate with/without stats might shed some light on that, but I can't find them this morning. The one thing I am sure of is that the Savard-JJ pair has been lights out for most of the year. Don't care if called #1 pair, #2 pair, shutdown pair, etc... Just glad they are both on our side. They are good together, and it has resulted in proper slotting of all D. I am not sure ZW is ready for full #1 pair in PO, but a) glad we will get to find out; and b) Murray has played some #1 pair at end of games (hopefully he has just a minor ding).

That difference in CF% this late in the year is statistically significant. The stats are all 5v5 by the way, the things you have to adjust for are quality of teammates / competition and zone starts.

The links for wowy are on the same site, just click on a player's name and you'll see. Savard has played 3/4 of the season with JJ.
Together 51.3 CF%
Savard w/o JJ 54%
JJ w/o Savard 46%

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1520&withagainst=true&season=2016-17&sit=5v5

You're right that it's reasonable to expect more points from a top pair D. But how much more? The 60th ranked D has 21 pts. Savard has 19 points, all of them at ES. He's tied at 17th among all D in ES points, and hasn't sniffed the PP.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...d=0&type=individual&sort=ipoints&sortdir=DESC