Speculation: Yzerman's strategy

[StargateSG1]

I'm just listening to the GM himself struggle to articulate his plan.
Listen to him describe the challenge of rebuilding and tell me you know what the Yzerplan is.

I am fine with what he said, "Draft and Develop" is still THE plan.
I think he'll try to maximize the draft capital.
Did you know Hawks had 120+ picks in the same time span the rest of the teams had maybe 80, before they got good with Kane and Toews and the rest?

It took a while, but it worked, they are doing the exact same thing now.

 

[Bench]

This is true, but he won't.

I got another "but what about this?" response. Drat.

I thought we'd come to some kind of good faith discourse instead of picking a posture and never moving from it until the sun expands and swallows us all and ends this stupid cycle.

 

[DanielMarois]

Whether you're pro or anti tank, I think fans have to come to the realization that in a 32 team cap league the chances are good that your team will become a middling team anyways. There are way too many variables and a lot of luck involved for a team to become a consistently good team for an extended period of time. Too many fans seem to only enjoy a team if it's a contender or if it's bad enough to get a star soon. I was of the opinion that this was absolutely the wrong year to improve, but had they made the playoffs I would have been thrilled even if meant a sweep at the hands of Boston. You gotta get some enjoyment from a team just making the playoffs or being "only" good, or else what's the point of watching sports?

 

[Oddbob]

HF as a whole has a love affair with:

 

[Claypool]

Whether you're pro or anti tank, I think fans have to come to the realization that in a 32 team cap league the chances are good that your team will become a middling team anyways. There are way too many variables and a lot of luck involved for a team to become a consistently good team for an extended period of time. Too many fans seem to only enjoy a team if it's a contender or if it's bad enough to get a star soon. I was of the opinion that this was absolutely the wrong year to improve, but had they made the playoffs I would have been thrilled even if meant a sweep at the hands of Boston. You gotta get some enjoyment from a team just making the playoffs or being "only" good, or else what's the point of watching sports?

Fans just want a clear strategy from their general manager. Nobody here is blind to the fact that some luck is required.

When Yzerman came in his strategy was clear: tank for top picks, trade assets that don't fit a particular timeline and sign veteran players on short-term deals that can be flipped at the deadline. It sucked to watch but at least there was a plan. He made some gutsy trades and move players fans were attached to. It was a breath of fresh air.

However, this past offseason he spent a bunch of money he didn't need to and brought in upgrades to positions through trade when in reality he should have stayed the course and kept the picks. Bertuzzi should have been moved in the offseason when his value was at its highest. Perhaps he learned his lesson with the Hronek deal. I'd argue he should have tried to flip Larkin and a 1st to Seattle for the 4th overall pick and get Shane Wright when he fell. Those were the tough trades Yzerman is supposed to be making. As much as I like Larkin, he's not a center worth building a team around.

Yzerman keeps preaching patience but his actions in the offseason suggest he's antsy to just make the playoffs and not actually build a consistent contender. I'm getting mixed messages and it seems he's abandoned his plan just four years in.

In a 32 team league with a salary cap, the only way to win is to have superstars. In a league of parity they are the game changers. Any plan a GM puts forth should be to get superstars. The best way to get superstars is to draft them. That's why I will always take a 20 percent chance at drafting 1st overall, and will endure whatever pain I need to each season to get it, because I know that's the only way out of this.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

My conspiracy theory opinion is that Yzerman would have traded Larkin if the optics of it to average fans didn't look so bad.

I would have traded him, but this team is clearly still going to be very bad with Larkin sticking around. Yes, I would have preferred the slightly better chance at drafting higher, but you really can't sell that to people who pay the organization money to watch the team.

But it should be clear that the current rebuild has already failed. Yzerman must know that. But just because you know something doesn't mean you can really do anything about in the real world. Yeah, its super easy to say on the internet, but real life isn't the internet.

Would the Wings be a better team sooner if they just went full scorched Earth and let the fans play for the team? I can't say with absolute certainty when you are literally playing the lottery. I just always take the path that gives me the best odds.

But in fairness to Yzerman, there wasn't an organization in worse shape than the Wings were after Holland decided to mail in the last 4-5 years as GM of the Wings.

 

[SantosHalper]

I'd argue he should have tried to flip Larkin and a 1st to Seattle for the 4th overall pick and get Shane Wright when he fell.

Thank god, you're not the GM. Absolutely horrible trade proposition, Shane Wright will never be better player than Larkin. Larkin AND Kasper for Wright , basically two same ceiling players for a one player who also has the same ceiling.

This just shows how much people focus on the draft overall number and in this case Wright wasn't even the 1st overall pick, he was projected to be 1st overall but 3 players was selected before him.

In a 32 team league with a salary cap, the only way to win is to have superstars. In a league of parity they are the game changers. Any plan a GM puts forth should be to get superstars. The best way to get superstars is to draft them. That's why I will always take a 20 percent chance at drafting 1st overall, and will endure whatever pain I need to each season to get it, because I know that's the only way out of this.

It's amusing how always the 1st overall pick and the "superstar"-gimmick walk hand to hand. If those 1st overall "superstars" would all be game changers, Edmonton Oilers should have dominated the better part of the past 10 years.

Draft overall number doesn't dictate who's going to be a superstar/game changer and who's not, 1st overall draft pick only allows the organization to pick the player that they like the most.

 

[Crunchy]

Some real awful takes in here... Rebuild has failed?

Seider, 22
Raymond, 21
Edvinsson, 20
Cossa, 20
Kasper, 19
2023 10th overall, 18
2023 17th overall, 18

Rasmussen (24), Berggren (23), Wallinder (21), Mazur (21), Johannson (22), Buium (20), Buchelnikov (19), +15 other U22 lottery tickets, + another 3 2023 2nd rounders/2023 draft

I'm not worried in the slightest, we've got players. The team culture needs to be developed as well, you need something for these kids to grow into. Yzerman doesn't want to wait until the 20 year olds all age enough to be good by themselves, he wants to build the team up around the pipeline and create asset optionality. Our prospect pool is huge, development is what we need to be investing in now to capitalize on assets.

The Sabres rebuild is what it looks like when you don't do anything but suck and draft. They look promising today, but it took how long to get here? 10+ years? What about the Oilers? How much faster would those rebuilds have been if the team had a culture and system to learn in? (The Edm/Buf way can also obliterate cap sustainability due to the provision of high leverage/opportunity to young players)

The conference is tough ahead of us, but we are going to have a deep, defensively sound team built to counter high-octane offense. This team has a distinct direction to acquire and develop assets, a clear team structure they are looking for, and a desire to create and maintain a strong culture (Larkin, Perron, Chiarot, Lalonde). Yzerman doesn't want to go on a run or two. He wants to build a sustainable playoff contender that lasts for 10+ years.

We will continue to build further through trade/free agency this offseason.

 

[Crunchy]

Building a team through tanking and drafting...

It's almost like a bunch of spreadsheet junkies hiring to their company based purely on test scores and schooling. What do people say when they enter the real world?

That you don't use much of that math you learned and all of a sudden soft skills you can't measure like communication, accountability, emotional intelligence become more important to your career.

GM'ing is a lot more complex than what it's being boiled down to by people reading numbers.

 

[jkutswings]

Building a team through tanking and drafting...

It's almost like a bunch of spreadsheet junkies hiring to their company based purely on test scores and schooling. What do people say when they enter the real world?

That you don't use much of that math you learned and all of a sudden soft skills you can't measure like communication, accountability, emotional intelligence become more important to your career.

GM'ing is a lot more complex than what it's being boiled down to by people reading numbers.

My draft chart says your assessment is exactly 17 percent accurate. And if it works on paper, the real world must be the same.

 

[PullHard]

I was going to come and lament all of the ignorance in the main board about Yzerman/ red wings rebuild thread coming from fans of other teams, but it's the same discourse in-house

 

[norrisnick]

I was going to come and lament all of the ignorance in the main board about Yzerman/ red wings rebuild thread coming from fans of other teams, but it's the same discourse in-house

Ain't no 'rarian like a contrarian.

 

[jkutswings]

Ain't no 'rarian like a contrarian.

You're wrong. Even if nearly everybody agrees with you.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

 

[jfrank21]

The fact that only two of the players you mentioned have even played NHL games while the rest haven't or haven't even been drafted yet tells me that the rebuild has failed. You are making far too many optimistic assumptions regarding the players you listed. The odds of all of them meeting their expected hype is basically 0%. Next season will be more of the same. If Seider and Raymond do end up being very good players, the Wings still won't be a good team. Maybe a 75-85 point team.

A 34 year old David Perron is the Wings second most productive forward this season. Yzerman went out trying to improve the roster last offseason and the result didn't change. I remember when people were saying Anthony Mantha was untradeable after an extremely limited sample size and were already penciling him into the Wings core. Same goes for Bertuzzi. I was advocating for his trade well before he ended up outing himself as a lunatic. Too many people are way too optimistic with no real evidence to justify that position.

Great players are very easy to spot. Even during their first couple of years in the NHL. (Referring to players that immediately play in the NHL after being drafted.)

Bertuzzi is a lunatic? Are we talking about Todd or Tyler here? Did I miss something?

Strange, the results haven't changed and yet the goals for are up, the goals against are down, and the win % is still higher....also, the rebuild has already failed because *checks notes* only 2 of their top players drafted IN THE LAST 4 YEARS have played on the big club. God forbid anyone takes more than a season to develop. We're clearly doomed. Curious, does winning the calder count as outing oneself as a great player within the first year or two? How about scoring at .65 ppg pace as a 19 and 20 year old? Does Berggren look promising to you...or is he well past his prime as a 22 year old rookie?

 

[kliq]

Team with the healthy McDrai for the entire season should be contending for Presidents trophy, not clinging to the wild card spot in a weak Western Conference.
If you don't get that, oh well.

"Clinging to a wild card"......wow lol. Edmonton is ahead of Calgary (first team out of the Wild Card) by 9 points, and they are 4 points behind Vegas (#1 in the conference). I get you always try to spin things glass half empty, but even for you this is a stretch. You need to just print out a photo of Ken Holland, tape it to a punching bag and go to town and get that man out of your head.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I was going to come and lament all of the ignorance in the main board about Yzerman/ red wings rebuild thread coming from fans of other teams, but it's the same discourse in-house

Dude. There is a 68 year-old Bruins fan who is spending a lot of time in that thread twisting things any way possible to make the Wings rebuild look like a total failure. I seriously thought it was some kid. I hope he's lying about his age?

 

[Claypool]

Thank god, you're not the GM. Absolutely horrible trade proposition, Shane Wright will never be better player than Larkin. Larkin AND Kasper for Wright , basically two same ceiling players for a one player who also has the same ceiling.

This just shows how much people focus on the draft overall number and in this case Wright wasn't even the 1st overall pick, he was projected to be 1st overall but 3 players was selected before him.

No, you're not understanding. Trading Larkin and tanking for Bedard is a much better strategy than drafting 12th.

Having Bedard and Wright potentially down the middle sets your team up for a 10+ year run ala New Jersey. We know what we're going to get with Larkin and Kasper and it doesn't involve contention.

 

[norrisnick]

Dude. There is a 68 year-old Bruins fan who is spending a lot of time in that thread twisting things any way possible to make the Wings rebuild look like a total failure. I seriously thought it was some kid. I hope he's lying about his age?

That seems to be all the rage these days... Gotta fake that Boomer clout ya know?

 

[jkutswings]

Let me just give you a grossly simplified explanation on how a rebuild tends to work when it goes right.

Team is garbage for 3-4 years and after that you would hope the lottery gave you some luck and ended up netting you an elite player.

Check. See also: Seider, Moritz. Only it's even better, since the front office found an elite guy even despite this boat anchor of a lottery system around their necks. And they'll keep finding very good players.

2-3 more years of slowly improving while adding quality role players to fill out the lineup and potentially make the playoffs and most likely lose in the first round.

U r here.

Maybe 2-3 more years of making the playoffs but going a little bit further each season.

Yep, that's possibly as soon as next year, depending on how many picks are actually made, versus traded for good young talent.

Finally, it culminates into a team that is full of talented players that are being underpaid when looking at the on-ice performance due to still being on entry level contracts or RFA contracts with 1-2 years left on them that gave the organization leverage to not end up paying fair market value and then comparing those players to other players who were signed as UFA's.

No argument there. Edvinsson, Kasper, Wallinder, Johansson, and whomever they draft this summer.

Successful rebuilds cannot take 7-10 years before you start seeing real progress.

Not sure what you're arguing against, since Detroit has already shown progress. There's more defensive structure, a better goal differential, and a significant influx of youth in the nearly 4 years since Yzerman joined, plus a heap of draft capital and cap space.

In the next 1-2 years Detroit makes the playoffs.
In the next 2-3 they win a round.
In the next 3-5 they reach the third round.
That's absolutely real progress sooner than the 7-10 year window you conjured up.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

I assume that people who think the Earth is flat are also correct and definitely know more about physics than those poor sheeple physicists who wasted all those years getting their PHD's. They could have just gone to some random Youtube channel and saved themselves hundreds of thousands of dollars in student loans.

 

[JediOrderPizza]

Yeah reading other fans opinion on the rebuild is weird, it's like they are all annoyed we are not super pissed off. Most Sens fans are incredibly hostile as well.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Check. See also: Seider, Moritz. Only it's even better, since the front office found an elite guy even despite this boat anchor of a lottery system around their necks. And they'll keep finding very good players.


U r here.


Yep, that's possibly as soon as next year, depending on how many picks are actually made, versus traded for good young talent.


No argument there. Edvinsson, Kasper, Wallinder, Johansson, and whomever they draft this summer.


Not sure what you're arguing against, since Detroit has already shown progress. There's more defensive structure, a better goal differential, and a significant influx of youth in the nearly 4 years since Yzerman joined, plus a heap of draft capital and cap space.

In the next 1-2 years Detroit makes the playoffs.
In the next 2-3 they win a round.
In the next 3-5 they reach the third round.
That's absolutely real progress sooner than the 7-10 year window you conjured up.

Uh last I checked; Moritz Seider didn't play his first NHL game until three years after he was drafted.

The rebuild ends when the team starts to make the playoffs on a regular basis. I was just giving an example of how a rebuild looks when it goes right. 4-5 years of assembling the talent is how long a rebuild should take. You need to have the foundation in place within 4-5 years at the very latest.

There is absolutely no chance the Wings make the playoffs next year. If the Wings draft 10th overall, I don't expect to see that player on the Wings roster immediately. Otherwise, he wouldn't be going 10th overall. There are obvious exceptions that can arise from incompetent management putting him in the NHL too soon, or the scouts missed something about him or off the ice concerns scared teams away.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Yeah reading other fans opinion on the rebuild is weird, it's like they are all annoyed we are not super pissed off. Most Sens fans are incredibly hostile as well.

I understand why. This is the first time most Wings fans have had to endure a rebuild. The fanbases that are upset that some Wings fans aren't upset are the fanbases who have suffered from long and terrible attempts at rebuilding that resulted in nothing. They can see what's happening because they have experienced it first-hand.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Uh last I checked; Moritz Seider didn't play his first NHL game until three years after he was drafted.

The rebuild ends when the team starts to make the playoffs on a regular basis. I was just giving an example of how a rebuild looks when it goes right. 4-5 years of assembling the talent is how long a rebuild should take. You need to have the foundation in place within 4-5 years at the very latest.

There is absolutely no chance the Wings make the playoffs next year. If the Wings draft 10th overall, I don't expect to see that player on the Wings roster immediately. Otherwise, he wouldn't be going 10th overall. There are obvious exceptions that can arise from incompetent management putting him in the NHL too soon, or the scouts missed something about him or off the ice concerns scared teams away.

Last I checked… there was a global pandemic that occurred in the gap between Seider being drafted that led to leagues shutting down for extended periods of time and made travel around the globe way less convenient and possible.