Speculation: Yzerman's strategy

[MBH]

I mean I know they whooped us twice.. but they have 1 more point than us and might also miss the playoffs, lol.

You also pretty much need to be one of the 2 worst teams in the league to get a #3 pick. Which is not nearly as easy as people make it out to be.

I'm not talking about Sens being better than Detroit, I'm just talking about how draft 3-4-5 can reshape your franchise.

Wings take first place in team sadness metric.
IE - no playoffs, no top 5, no lottery

 

[MBH]

Wrong. We got lucky we missed out on Lafrenier/Kakko/Byfield/Byram/Turcotte.

Maybe we got unlucky not drafting Hughes or Stutzle, but do we know whether Yzerman would have picked those exact players?

Regarding 2021 and 2022, it's too early to tell.

Hughes year was still Holland.

 

[Frk It]

Hughes year was still Holland.

I think they were thinking we were last the year Jack Hughes was #1. Which was the year we took Seider, in which case Yzerman was GM.

But we were actually last the year where Lafreniere was #1, if I'm not mistaken.

 

[MBH]

I think they were thinking we were last the year Jack Hughes was #1. Which was the year we took Seider, in which case Yzerman was GM.

But we were actually last the year where Lafreniere was #1, if I'm not mistaken.

Right.
1st to 4th.
The NHL's actions to keep teams from being too good - and to prevent teams from being too bad - have not been kind to the Red Wings.

 

[StargateSG1]

Right.
1st to 4th.
The NHL's actions to keep teams from being too good - and to prevent teams from being too bad - have not been kind to the Red Wings.

Well... just like "only 1 team can win the Cup", only one team can actually win the lottery, so each given year there are at least 10 pissed off teams and fan bases...

 

[GMR]

Hughes year was still Holland.

I meant Jack Hughes. I'm assuming Detroit picks him over Kakko with the first pick (hopefully). Of course, that means no Seider.

What if Detroit gets the 3rd pick? I'm assuming Yzerman drafts Byram or Dach over Seider. Maybe even Turcotte.

 

[ThankGord]

People need to have patience, the vast majority of Yzermans draft picks are still in juniors/college/working their way up through the system. Chill out. Mo was his first draft pick.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

And that's why you don't try to force sucking. The rules literally do not favor you doing that.

 

[SoupNazi]

And that's why you don't try to force sucking. The rules literally do not favor you doing that.

I mean, even when they did, you had to have the people in place to do something with them, which is why Edmonton was a laughingstock for so long with the 1OAs they essentially squandered.

 

[MBH]

Well... just like "only 1 team can win the Cup", only one team can actually win the lottery, so each given year there are at least 10 pissed off teams and fan bases...

Right - but in our year.... we lost 3 spots.
They corrected that a year or two later.

Honestly, there only needs to be one lottery - for the top spot. But the NHL is trying really hard (and failing) to make the lottery an event.

And that's why you don't try to force sucking. The rules literally do not favor you doing that.

But it's also why you don't sign a bunch of middling free agents and get too good - but not good enough.
Picking 3-5 is much better than 11-14.
It just is - and there's no way around it it

 

[Chad Smiley]

The Red Wings aren't bad enough to draft the stars and not good enough to make the playoffs. In professional sports that's the worst thing you can do. Middling around and doing nothing.

 

[jkutswings]

The Red Wings aren't bad enough to draft the stars and not good enough to make the playoffs. In professional sports that's the worst thing you can do. Middling around and doing nothing.

Because in the one season where that's currently likely, we can ignore any chance of that changing over the last 18 games, ignore any chance of improving the team in the off season, and just assume the foreseeable future is exactly like the present.

I never expected the cellar phase of the rebuild to have FEWER wet blankets than the bubble team phase.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Because in the one season where that's currently likely, we can ignore any chance of that changing over the last 18 games, ignore any chance of improving the team in the off season, and just assume the foreseeable future is exactly like the present.

I never expected the cellar phase of the rebuild to have FEWER wet blankets than the bubble team phase.

No shit man. It’s unbearable. There’s this crazy presumption that you tank, pick a generational talent and are instantly a cup finalist.

It took St. Louis about 5 seasons from drafting Erik Johnson 1st overall to become a really good team and he wasn’t even on it. It takes time to piece together a winner. Detroit is on a good path and we fans need to chill a bit.

 

[MBH]

No shit man. It’s unbearable. There’s this crazy presumption that you tank, pick a generational talent and are instantly a cup finalist.

It took St. Louis about 5 seasons from drafting Erik Johnson 1st overall to become a really good team and he wasn’t even on it. It takes time to piece together a winner. Detroit is on a good path and we fans need to chill a bit.

Message board posts are not "unbearable." Not any more unbearable than people who overreact to any and all criticism.

Secondly, Detroit fans don't need to chill. They can and should do, think and say whatever they want.
If they're unhappy about year 7 out of the playoffs? Fine. If they're frustrated Yzerman has now tossed in his hand twice during the rebuild (first on AA/Mantha, now on Hronek/Bertuzzi/Vrana), so be it. There's nothing outlandish about it.

Nobody thinks there's any "magic way" to get superstars by finishing at the bottom. You can still screw up those picks.

But we're also not stupid. We know exactly where the NHL's difference makers are most like to be found. That's the very top of the draft.

And we know that the worst place to finish in hockey is on the outside of the bubble - where you don't get a good crack at the elite talent and you don't get in the playoffs.

Yzerman knows the state of this team. He understands it's still quite a ways away from competing. He knows he's still got to find the right players.

And we all know that picking 10th or 11th and 17th this year... well, even if you land core players at those spots, you can't really count on them for four years.

So what? 10-11 years with no playoffs? If they pan out?
Or are you going to UFA and trade your way there? Yzerman knows that's a pretty difficult way to build a team.

I think Yzerman is on a path that's going to make it hard for him to get the kind of talent he needs to turn this thing around before Year 10.

In that respect, that's why I respect the Blues' tank.
Kind of like the Rangers a few years ago.

They just said, f*** it.
We're going on a tank mission. It'll be quick. It'll be painful. But hopefully it doesn't last long.

I don't think we see the light at the end of the tunnel here in Detroit yet.

 

[jfrank21]

Edvinsson is .5ppg as a rookie defenseman in the AHL, Wallinder is the top u21 player in ppg in the SHL, Kasper is 4th and hes only 18, Mazur is tied for 4th in goals for the entire NCAA, Lombardi is 4th in points in the entire OHL, Buchelnikov is the top u20 ppg player in the VHL....Seider won the Calder just last year and Raymond is 4th in u21 scoring in the NHL...people really need to get a grip! The sky is falling, the sky is falling!

Just quoting myself since this thread is more active. All of the debbie downers need to see this and think...patience young padawan....our time is coming, it's just not here yet. Oh, and Mazur is technically tied for 3rd in goals, so even better.

 

[Oddbob]

One thing I will say in defence of the Oilers and all their 1sts, is that they picked the consensus players each time and the majority of all teams were taking those same players. Hall, Yakupov and RNH were the main guys slotted in 1st those 3 years. Maybe they didn't do a great job developing them, but I honestly think fans put too much into that being the only reason they weren't as good as hoped for. Hall is still 2nd in pts from his draft class and RNH is 5th. Yak only played 350 games, but he still 35th or so in pts from his draft year which was a pretty bad year overall.

 

[Henkka]

One thing I will say in defence of the Oilers and all their 1sts, is that they picked the consensus players each time and the majority of all teams were taking those same players. Hall, Yakupov and RNH were the main guys slotted in 1st those 3 years. Maybe they didn't do a great job developing them, but I honestly think fans put too much into that being the only reason they weren't as good as hoped for. Hall is still 2nd in pts from his draft class and RNH is 5th. Yak only played 350 games, but he still 35th or so in pts from his draft year which was a pretty bad year overall.

That's kind of interesting, how this consensus-stupidity is finally over.

Teams on the last decade would have taken Shane Wright at 2022, thanks to consensus.

But last 2022 draft was the first sign, that finally organizations have to guts to go against consensus, with Slafkovsky-Nemec-Cooley-Wright as 1-2-3-4.

Think Zadina-pick goes also for same model, had to draft because of "consensus".

"He fell so low that you can't pass him" or whatever it was said by Tyler Wright.

 

[norrisnick]

Message board posts are not "unbearable." Not any more unbearable than people who overreact to any and all criticism.

Secondly, Detroit fans don't need to chill. They can and should do, think and say whatever they want.
If they're unhappy about year 7 out of the playoffs? Fine. If they're frustrated Yzerman has now tossed in his hand twice during the rebuild (first on AA/Mantha, now on Hronek/Bertuzzi/Vrana), so be it. There's nothing outlandish about it.

Nobody thinks there's any "magic way" to get superstars by finishing at the bottom. You can still screw up those picks.

But we're also not stupid. We know exactly where the NHL's difference makers are most like to be found. That's the very top of the draft.

And we know that the worst place to finish in hockey is on the outside of the bubble - where you don't get a good crack at the elite talent and you don't get in the playoffs.

Yzerman knows the state of this team. He understands it's still quite a ways away from competing. He knows he's still got to find the right players.

And we all know that picking 10th or 11th and 17th this year... well, even if you land core players at those spots, you can't really count on them for four years.

So what? 10-11 years with no playoffs? If they pan out?
Or are you going to UFA and trade your way there? Yzerman knows that's a pretty difficult way to build a team.

I think Yzerman is on a path that's going to make it hard for him to get the kind of talent he needs to turn this thing around before Year 10.

In that respect, that's why I respect the Blues' tank.
Kind of like the Rangers a few years ago.

They just said, f*** it.
We're going on a tank mission. It'll be quick. It'll be painful. But hopefully it doesn't last long.

I don't think we see the light at the end of the tunnel here in Detroit yet.

You respect the Rangers' "tank" when they underperform for a few seasons, finish where we are standings wise, but vault up the draft twice due to the lottery.

And we are right next to the blues in the standings who are in year 1. But I'm guessing the "respect" you have for them is trading their UFA to be captain as if ROR and Larkin of 2023 are at all comparable, because you are nothing if not predictable.

 

[Pavels Dog]

And we all know that picking 10th or 11th and 17th this year... well, even if you land core players at those spots, you can't really count on them for four years.

Very few players can be counted on as core pieces within 2-3 years of being drafted. It's just how it goes.

 

[Winger98]

One thing I will say in defence of the Oilers and all their 1sts, is that they picked the consensus players each time and the majority of all teams were taking those same players. Hall, Yakupov and RNH were the main guys slotted in 1st those 3 years. Maybe they didn't do a great job developing them, but I honestly think fans put too much into that being the only reason they weren't as good as hoped for. Hall is still 2nd in pts from his draft class and RNH is 5th. Yak only played 350 games, but he still 35th or so in pts from his draft year which was a pretty bad year overall.

One of the big issues with the Oil was the rest of their draft board after those 1st picks. They got so little from those drafts outside of the relative gimme picks they had.

 

[MBH]

One of the big issues with the Oil was the rest of their draft board after those 1st picks. They got so little from those drafts outside of the relative gimme picks they had.

Oil in the top 10.

Year - Player - Draft position- Next 3 picks
2009 - Paajarvi - 10th - Ellis, DeHaan, kassian
2010 - Hall - 1st - Seguin, Gudbranson, Johansen
2011 - Nugent-Hopkins - 1st -Landeskog, Huberdeau, Larsson
2012 - Yakupov - 1st - Murray, Galchenyuk, Reinhart (yikes)
2013 - Nurse - 7th - Ristolainen, Horvat, Nischuskin
2014 - Draisaitl - 3rd - Bennett, DalColle, Virtanen
2015 - McDavid - 1st - Eichel, D Strome, Marner
2016 - Puljujarvi - 4th - Juolevi, Tkachuk, Keller

3 of these picks are the right call - no doubt (Hall, Drai, McDavid).
The Nurse call is debatable, but easy to defend.
The Nuge pick was the wrong pick but turned out fine.

 

[Shaman464]

Oil in the top 10.

Year - Player - Draft position- Next 3 picks
2009 - Paajarvi - 10th - Ellis, DeHaan, kassian
2010 - Hall - 1st - Seguin, Gudbranson, Johansen
2011 - Nugent-Hopkins - 1st -Landeskog, Huberdeau, Larsson
2012 - Yakupov - 1st - Murray, Galchenyuk, Reinhart (yikes)
2013 - Nurse - 7th - Ristolainen, Horvat, Nischuskin
2014 - Draisaitl - 3rd - Bennett, DalColle, Virtanen
2015 - McDavid - 1st - Eichel, D Strome, Marner
2016 - Puljujarvi - 4th - Juolevi, Tkachuk, Keller

3 of these picks are the right call - no doubt (Hall, Drai, McDavid).
The Nurse call is debatable, but easy to defend.
The Nuge pick was the wrong pick but turned out fine.

In retrospect drafting Nail first was a mistake but at the time he was the consensus 1OA.

 

[Frk It]

Right - but in our year.... we lost 3 spots.
They corrected that a year or two later.

Honestly, there only needs to be one lottery - for the top spot. But the NHL is trying really hard (and failing) to make the lottery an event.

In my opinion, the league had a choice. It was help teams at the bottom OR deter teams from tanking. You can't do both. And after the bad PR with the Oilers, they planted their flag.

6 years later, even with the odds being pretty shit, it still seems like teams are willing to tank.

So they should be looking at amending this lottery structure, or honestly, I don't get why you need a lottery at all. They way the NFL does things seems fine to me. Although the NFL kind of has a benefit where it is not as clear that the top 2-3 spots in the draft yield the best players. It is a lot more random.

 

[Retire91]

Yes there are tanking deterrents, but endlessly tanking makes just as much strategic sense as signing your way to marginal goodness and just to tread water as a bubble team endlessly. Thankfully Yzerman is doing neither and succeeding quite nicely at what he is doing.

There is a difference between:
1.) endlessly and intentionally being bad to try and draft the next superstar

and

2.) leveraging the window where you are "going to be bad no matter what" to maximize your chances to secure core talent

Nothing Yzerman is doing indicates "forever" to me. Our "going to be bad no matter what" phase is just longer than normal because of how bad the team was when he took over.

 

[MBH]

In my opinion, the league had a choice. It was help teams at the bottom OR deter teams from tanking. You can't do both. And after the bad PR with the Oilers, they planted their flag.

6 years later, even with the odds being pretty shit, it still seems like teams are willing to tank.

So they should be looking at amending this lottery structure, or honestly, I don't get why you need a lottery at all. They way the NFL does things seems fine to me. Although the NFL kind of has a benefit where it is not as clear that the top 2-3 spots in the draft yield the best players. It is a lot more random.

You want to prevent a race to the bottom, I get it.
Tanks can get pretty embarrassing.
But we've been living with the Coyotes for a long time now. How much worse can it get?

So I'm fine putting #1 up for a lottery. But the worst team should pick no worse than 2nd.

In retrospect drafting Nail first was a mistake but at the time he was the consensus 1OA.

Right. But it clearly didn't work out so well - the whole top of the draft was crap.