Your Team's Top 10 Prospects

[hockeynorth]

1. Liljegren
2. Sandin
   
3. Amirov
4. Robertson
5. Niemela
6. Knies
7. Hirvonen
8. Abramov
9. Miettinen
10. Kokkonen

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

All u wings fans are sleeping on Albin Grewe.

Grewe is looking like a Swedish Mitchell Callahan. All of the signs that he COULD become a bottom 6 pain in the ass but there's just something missing, and that's why I think he's going to be a career minor leaguer with the potential to be a pretty good player in a European league.

 

[Satanphonehome]

7 of the 1st 97 picks this year including the 1st overall pick has really strengthened the Sabres depth. Be interesting to see how the Euros progress this year. They are quite strong in goal, on the wings and on D. Major gap at centre.

Power
(Cozens)

Quinn
Rosen

Peterka
Poltopov
Lukkonen
Ruotsalainen
Samuelsson
Johnson
Kisakov

HM: Portillo, Levi

 

[majormajor]

Here's a list for CBJ with projections. It's tricky to describe a player's outcomes with a consistent shorthand, I'll try here mentioning what I think is their 75% upside and their 25% downside. "x" means not in the NHL.

1. Cole Sillinger - 1C - 2C
2. Kent Johnson - 1W - x

3. Kirill Marchenko - 1W - 2W

4. Yegor Chinakhov - 2W - 4W
5. Liam Foudy - 2W - 4W
6. Dimitri Voronkov - 3C, 4W

7. Stanislav Svozil - 2P, x
8. Corson Ceulemans - 2P, x
9. Daniil Tarasov - 1G, x
10. Tyler Angle - 3W, x

If these seem a little high, take note that they're actually more modest than a simple NHLe model would suggest:

 

[majormajor]

7 of the 1st 97 picks this year including the 1st overall pick has really strengthened the Sabres depth. Be interesting to see how the Euros progress this year. They are quite strong in goal, on the wings and on D. Major gap at centre.

Power
(Cozens)

Quinn
Rosen

Peterka
Poltopov
Lukkonen
Ruotsalainen
Samuelsson
Johnson
Kisakov

HM: Portillo, Levi

I'd have a middle tier with Quinn, Peterka, Rosen, and Poltapov. I think those four are closer in value to each other than they are to those above and below.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Here's a list for CBJ with projections. It's tricky to describe a player's outcomes with a consistent shorthand, I'll try here mentioning what I think is their 75% upside and their 25% downside. "x" means not in the NHL.

1. Cole Sillinger - 1C - 2C
2. Kent Johnson - 1W - x

3. Kirill Marchenko - 1W - 2W

4. Yegor Chinakhov - 2W - 4W
5. Liam Foudy - 2W - 4W
6. Dimitri Voronkov - 3C, 4W

7. Stanislav Svozil - 2P, x
8. Corson Ceulemans - 2P, x
9. Daniil Tarasov - 1G, x
10. Tyler Angle - 3W, x

If these seem a little high, take note that they're actually more modest than a simple NHLe model would suggest:

Those models are awful though.

 

[jfrank21]

That model says that detroit has 1 potential "star" in the system and only 5 potential nhl players. And it includes Zadina based on the parameters...I'm thinking that it's wrong. Not that I'm saying Zadina is going to be a star, but he is most definitely already a NHLer so that means out of the entirety of their system the model says that only 4 more of their prospects will even make it...sure.

 

[AKL]

Those models are awful though.

I don't know if they're necessarily awful, I just don't think they mean what people try to make them mean.

EDIT: I guess the models that use NHLe to try to predict anything are awful, I was just saying NHLe itself isn't necessarily awful.

 

[L13]

That model says that detroit has 1 potential "star" in the system and only 5 potential nhl players. And it includes Zadina based on the parameters...I'm thinking that it's wrong. Not that I'm saying Zadina is going to be a star, but he is most definitely already a NHLer so that means out of the entirety of their system the model says that only 4 more of their prospects will even make it...sure.

Getting 4 regular NHLers out of your prospect pool would be a huge success, statistically speaking. Criticising the model on those grounds suggests an unrealistic understanding of how many drafted prospects turn into NHL players.

 

[jfrank21]

Getting 4 regular NHLers out of your prospect pool would be a huge success, statistically speaking. Criticising the model on those grounds suggests an unrealistic understanding of how many drafted prospects turn into NHL players.

Statistically speaking, a regular prospect pool doesnt have a total of TWENTY TWO 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks over the past 4 drafts. This includes six 1st round picks. Over those same four drafts, the Wings have had a total of 41 picks, to end up with only 5 NHLers and 1 "star" would be a catastrophic failure of drafting. I've been following this a for a hot minute, and I've seen sure things come and go, so I get what you are trying to say. But then to turn around and have the same model say that a team like the Blue Jackets is predicted to have 10 regulars come out of their pool? Ha!

 

[Pavels Dog]

Getting 4 regular NHLers out of your prospect pool would be a huge success, statistically speaking. Criticising the model on those grounds suggests an unrealistic understanding of how many drafted prospects turn into NHL players.

The model should only be used on forwards and even then with massive caveats.
It has no use for rating d-men. Unfortunately twitter analytics crowd try to shoehorn their models into catch-all projections and people eat it up.

 

[GunnarStahl]

Anaheim Ducks Top 10 Prospects

1. Trevor Zegras
2. Jamie Drysdale
3. Mason McTavish
4. Lukas Dostal
5. Jacob Perreault
6. Open Zellweger
7. Sasha Pastujov
8. Jackson Lacombe
9. Henry Thrun
10. Bo Groulx

The prospect pool is looking genuinely deep for the Ducks now, like even some the players left of this list I feel have impact player upside. A couple other interesting notes are the approaching log jam of LD and the lack of RD and physical D, LaCombe and Thrun have some size and weight to them but I wouldn’t really call them physical, an odd thing for the Ducks to be lacking in. Also some players fell due to COVID messing with their seasons for example Thrun, Tracey, Colangelo

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

That model says that detroit has 1 potential "star" in the system and only 5 potential nhl players. And it includes Zadina based on the parameters...I'm thinking that it's wrong. Not that I'm saying Zadina is going to be a star, but he is most definitely already a NHLer so that means out of the entirety of their system the model says that only 4 more of their prospects will even make it...sure.

The model has Toronto with more future NHLers and future stars than Detroit. How accurate can it be?

 

[majormajor]

The model should only be used on forwards and even then with massive caveats.
It has no use for rating d-men. Unfortunately twitter analytics crowd try to shoehorn their models into catch-all projections and people eat it up.

I would also tend to think that NHLe type models aren't going to be useful for D-men. I think that's possibly where the Wings are shortchanged because half of their prospects are defensive LD.

Statistically speaking, a regular prospect pool doesnt have a total of TWENTY TWO 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks over the past 4 drafts. This includes six 1st round picks. Over those same four drafts, the Wings have had a total of 41 picks, to end up with only 5 NHLers and 1 "star" would be a catastrophic failure of drafting. I've been following this a for a hot minute, and I've seen sure things come and go, so I get what you are trying to say. But then to turn around and have the same model say that a team like the Blue Jackets is predicted to have 10 regulars come out of their pool? Ha!

I would expect the Wings to have the better D and G prospects, by a substantial margin. I'm big on Edvinsson. I'm guessing that the model output is largely reflecting the fact that the Jackets' forward prospects are outscoring the Wings forward prospects. It's mostly just a points based model and Jackets prospects have

- the 1st, 3rd, and 6th best points per game totals among U21s in the KHL.

- the 1st and 5th best points per game totals among U21s in the AHL (minimum 10 gp).

- Cole Sillinger, who had the second highest NHLe this draft.

So no I don't think it means the Jackets have the best prospect pool. It just means their forward prospects have been scoring a lot, and I appreciate that the model output has brought that to folks' attention.

 

[majormajor]

The model has Toronto with more future NHLers and future stars than Detroit. How accurate can it be?

If you want to check the accuracy of a model just run it for previous years and see how well it predicts real life results. That's standard practice. I hear @TomasHertlsRooster knows about this stuff.

 

[Larmer83]

Chicago Blackhawks list: Too sad to mention

1. Lukas Reichel
2. Wyatt Kalnyuk
3. Wyatt Kaiser
4. Landon Slaggert
5. Nicholaus Beaudin
6. Drew Commesso
7. Colton Dach
8. Nolan Allan
9. Ethan Del Mastro
10. Alex Vlasic

 

[Osakahaus]

The model has Toronto with more future NHLers and future stars than Detroit. How accurate can it be?

biased leafs fans lol

 

[Ulysses31]

Wild great at drafting i think, leafs too, red wings too (drw my team)

 

[bossram]

The model should only be used on forwards and even then with massive caveats.
It has no use for rating d-men. Unfortunately twitter analytics crowd try to shoehorn their models into catch-all projections and people eat it up.

Because your vast scouting knowledge and immeasurable viewings can impart us with much more wisdom.

Everyone knows what the flaws of NHLe models are. They're not really akin to the "twitter analytics" models you clearly have no idea about considering they basically are purely points-based.

They're ideal use is more for a ballpark likelihood of success, not a granular ranking or evaluation. But of course, the scouts have never been wrong either and are practically infallible, so statistical models I guess are pretty useless.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Because your vast scouting knowledge and immeasurable viewings can impart us with much more wisdom.

Everyone knows what the flaws of NHLe models are. They're not really akin to the "twitter analytics" models you clearly have no idea about considering they basically are purely points-based.

They're ideal use is more for a ballpark likelihood of success, not a granular ranking or evaluation. But of course, the scouts have never been wrong either and are practically infallible, so statistical models I guess are pretty useless.

Does everyone really know the flaws? I don't think so. I saw these NHLe charts passed around for every draft pick made this year as justification or criticism of those picks. No nuance, no clarification about the flaws of the models, just straight up "This is a great pick" or "This is a bad/strange pick".

Reminder that Cale Makar was something like 2% Star, 15% NHLer. Again, why is a strictly point-based model even used on d-men? I seriously question whether a strictly +/- based model wouldn't be more relevant.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Devils are a tough group to figure since so many players under 23 were actually in the NHL lineup at one point - including 20-year-olds Jack Hughes and Ty Smith. Jesper Bratt has played four seasons and turned 23 last week.

Also, two of the three defensemen playing in Russia are wildcards at this point.

For the purposes of this list I excluded anyone with more than 10 NHL games last year.

1, Alexander Holtz
2, Dawson Mercer
3. Kevin Bahl
4. Luke Hughes
5. Nolan Foote
6. Shakir Mukhamadullin
7. Nikita Okhotyuk
8. Graeme Clark
9. Tyce Thompson
10. Nico Daws/Chase Stillman (tie)

1. Luke Hughes
2. Alexander Holtz
3. Dawson Mercer
4. Chase Stillman
5. Nolan Foote
6. Shakir Mukhamadullin
7. Kevin Bahl
8. Nikita Okhotiuk
9. Graeme Clarke
10. Tyce Thompson

HM: Samu Salminen, Patrick Moynihan, Nico Daws, Mike Vukojevic, Case McCarthy

 

[bossram]

Does everyone really know the flaws? I don't think so. I saw these NHLe charts passed around for every draft pick made this year as justification or criticism of those picks. No nuance, no clarification about the flaws of the models, just straight up "This is a great pick" or "This is a bad/strange pick".

Reminder that Cale Makar was something like 2% Star, 15% NHLer. Again, why is a strictly point-based model even used on d-men? I seriously question whether a strictly +/- based model wouldn't be more relevant.

Because hilariously, a points-only model drafts better than like half of NHL teams. It should be the "minimum bar" for teams to clear.

Melvin on the Canucks board created his "potato" drafting model based solely on points/NHLe. It drafts better than quite a few NHL teams.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Because hilariously, a points-only model drafts better than like half of NHL teams. It should be the "minimum bar" for teams to clear.

Melvin on the Canucks board created his "potato" drafting model based solely on points/NHLe. It drafts better than quite a few NHL teams.

Does it though?

It would surely be interesting to try and create a team that's drafted solely based on such models.

Dmitri Klopov over Drew Doughty?
Axel Holmström over Dylan Larkin?
Cody Corbett over Hampus Lindholm?
Ryan Pilon over Thomas Chabot?
David Kvasnicka over Cale Makar?
Ryan Siedem over Moritz Seider?

Extreme examples but it's not hard to find.

My impression is that when those models are correct, they're correct by a little bit (like ranking someone drafted in the 2nd/3rd as a 1st round caliber talent). But when they're wrong, they're extremely wrong.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

Don't think Vancouver even has 10 prospects of note.

It'll be tough, but here's my best effort...

1. Vasily Podkolzin (RW)
2. Jack Rathbone (D)
3. Mike DiPietro (G)
4. Jet Woo (D)
5. Danila Klimovich (RW)
6. Olli Juolevi (D)
7. Jonah Gadjovich (LW)
8. Will Lockwood (RW)
9. Arturs Silovs (G)
10. Linus Karlsson (C)

Huge drop off after 5

 

[Quinnisinoverhishead]

For the Wild, should be pretty similar to the other posts in this thread, with my expectation of where they will play in the NHL if/when they get there:

1. Marco Rossi (Top-6 C)
2. Matt Boldy (Top-6 LW)
3. Jesper Wallstedt (1G)
4. Carson Lambos (Top-4 D)
5. Calen Addison (Bottom-4 D)
6. Ryan O'Rourke (Top-4 D)
7. Marat Khusnutdinov (Middle-6 C)
8. Damian Hunt (3rd pair D)
9. Jack Peart (Bottom-4 D)
10. Vlad Firstov (Middle-6 LW)

Just missing the cut would probably be Alex Khovanov (Bottom-6 C), Nikita Nesterenko (Bottom-6 W), and Hunter Jones (2G)

Rossi lost a full year of development. Boldy has only reinforced that he is a top prospect in the league. I would have agreed with you after last years draft, but now Boldy should be the clear #1.