GDT: Your Ottawa Senators VS Les Canadiens de Montréal -7pm - RDS & TSN5

[BondraTime]

Define "likely". We finished 30th in 2018 but picked fourth. Buffalo's odds of picking first were only 5% better than ours. Colorado finished last in 2017 but picked fourth. It's a weighted lottery, there's no guarantee.

Can you say for certain Tkachuk is worse than someone you might draft in the top four next year? Also, at the time of the draft I think it's safe to assume there was still a chance Karlsson would be on the team, are you comfortable betting on a last or near last place finish with him there?

Don't get me wrong, we could finish last, watch Colorado draft a superstar, and moan about the choice for a decade. However, at the time of the draft I'm not convinced the decision made zero sense with the information available.

Right now, definitely.

Hughes/Dach/Cozens as franchise level #1 Centers, Kappo as one of the best offensive wingers in the past decade.

Could all change of course, but the top 5 from this draft is absurdly good.

 

[Micklebot]

Right now, definitely.

Hughes/Dach/Cozens as franchise level #1 Centers, Kappo as one of the best offensive wingers in the past decade.

Could all change of course, but the top 5 from this draft is absurdly good.

When is the last time a draft actually ended up with 5 players panning out the way they were projected? I mean, looking back at 2005, Pouliot was supposed to be an absolute stud. In 2008 Schenn and Bogosian were supposed to set up the team that drafted them for years on the backend.

I think those guys are probably stronger prospects than Tkachuk, but I'm very hesitant to deem them franchise level guys this far out.

 

[BondraTime]

When is the last time a draft actually ended up with 5 players panning out the way they were projected? I mean, looking back at 2005, Pouliot was supposed to be an absolute stud. In 2008 Schenn and Bogosian were supposed to set up the team that drafted them for years on the backend.

I think those guys are probably stronger prospects than Tkachuk, but I'm very hesitant to deem them franchise level guys this far out.

Very possible I'm over-rating guys, very possible.

I do know that guys like Dach don't come along often, and when they do they usually go #1. A bigger, better skating, smarter Dylan Strome. Teams are going be falling over themselves for him. He's not even a consensus top 5 pick at this point.

This draft is bonkers at the top end.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

The Duchene thing is irrelevant. We are only comparing the pick we made this past summer vs next summers pick.

Again it makes zero sense to pick this past summer at 4 when we likely will only pick higher next year. And especially since there's a good shot we get top pick.

How can you say that?
Do you know where Ottawa is going to finish in the overall standing this season?
What will their Odds be in the Lottery draft, if they're in it?
Will they win one the Lotteries?
Where will Colorado end up selecting (using the Ottawa pick) after the Lotteries?

Pierre Dorion must have weighed all these questions, and more, before deciding that using the first to select this year, and picking a known player that they've scouted for over a year, rather than waiting to select next year.


Like I mentioned before, IF PD had given Colorado this years pick, and they used it. ....... there would be a segment of fans whining about that, and even more next year when they ended up with a lesser prospect.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Pierre Dorion must have weighed all these questions, and more, before deciding that using the first to select this year, and picking a known player that they've scouted for over a year, rather than waiting to select next year.

lol

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

How can you say that?
Do you know where Ottawa is going to finish in the overall standing this season?
What will their Odds be in the Lottery draft, if they're in it?
Will they win one the Lotteries?
Where will Colorado end up selecting (using the Ottawa pick) after the Lotteries?

Pierre Dorion must have weighed all these questions, and more, before deciding that using the first to select this year, and picking a known player that they've scouted for over a year, rather than waiting to select next year.


Like I mentioned before, IF PD had given Colorado this years pick, and they used it. ....... there would be a segment of fans whining about that, and even more next year when they ended up with a lesser prospect.

I dont think too many fans have much faith in Dorion's judgement these days.

 

[Brannstorm]

I don't know,

If I was with an organization which went up and down year to year drastically I wouldn't gamble on multiple assuming factors a flippin year from now lol.

That is a bad gamble, prospects could turn out, anderson could stand on his head. Duchene and Stone could burn up. And I hope all of this happens.

 

[Brannstorm]

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. People lose lotteries all the time too, all the time. I never win.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

I dont think too many fans have much faith in Dorion's judgement these days.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. People lose lotteries all the time too, all the time. I never win.

The point is if our pick is in the top 7 or 8 we'd be getting a much better player than Tkachuk and that was known in June. Its not just Hughes or bust. We could lose the lottery and still be in better shape.

 

[Korpse]

The point is if our pick is in the top 7 or 8 we'd be getting a much better player than Tkachuk and that was known in June. Its not just Hughes or bust. We could lose the lottery and still be in better shape.

That's ridiculous. A year out from the 2019 draft it's hard to say who will be the best options at 7 or 8, let alone determining if they will be better player than Tkachuk.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

That's ridiculous. A year out from the 2019 draft it's hard to say who will be the best options at 7 or 8, let alone determining if they will be better player than Tkachuk.

Why?

 

[Korpse]

Why?

Becuase we are a year out and it's the most important year in regards to draft selection, you don't even know who will be there. There's always a number of top 10 prospects in September who fall by the time the draft comes around becuase they dont meet expectations. There's also always guys who rise too. In september you have no idea what kind of player you are getting at 7 or 8.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Can you say for certain Tkachuk is worse than someone you might draft in the top four next year? Also, at the time of the draft I think it's safe to assume there was still a chance Karlsson would be on the team, are you comfortable betting on a last or near last place finish with him there?

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. People lose lotteries all the time too, all the time. I never win.

Let's say you are Vancouver,Detroit or Montreal:Would you honestly give trade your 2019 1st for Brady Tkachuk?

 

[swiftwin]

Let's say you are Vancouver,Detroit or Montreal:Would you honestly give trade your 2019 1st for Brady Tkachuk?

Not the same thing.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Not the same thing.

It basically is though:The team planned on trading EK in February and it was blatantly obviously we would be a bottom 3-5 team without him(ie like Vancouver or Montreal). Even though Brady is a top 5 pick, none of those teams I listed would trade their 2019 1st for him because A.The 2019 draft's top 5 is really good and B.They all want a shot at winning Hughes.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

How can you look at the analytics when Karlsson is not on the ice and think this team will not finish at the bottom?

Oh yeah. I guess that stuff is meaningless to the management/ownership who are “big fans of Cody Ceci”.

 

[Agent Zub]

How can you look at the analytics when Karlsson is not on the ice and think this team will not finish at the bottom?

Oh yeah. I guess that stuff is meaningless to the management/ownership who are “big fans of Cody Ceci”.

yea but we also have "foundational player" Mark Borowiecki

 

[pown]

How can you look at the analytics when Karlsson is not on the ice and think this team will not finish at the bottom?

Oh yeah. I guess that stuff is meaningless to the management/ownership who are “big fans of Cody Ceci”.

Ive actually been impressed by ceci this preseason and im not a ceci fan at all i wanted him gone a long time ago but maybe he will turn a corner this year

 

[Deku]

How can you look at the analytics when Karlsson is not on the ice and think this team will not finish at the bottom?

Oh yeah. I guess that stuff is meaningless to the management/ownership who are “big fans of Cody Ceci”.

Exactly. I like Tkachuk and was fine with using the 2018 pick, back when it seemed like we might have Karlsson until at least the trade deadline. Heathy EK and a youth infusion might’ve been able to pull us out of the bottom 5, but swapping him out for Dylan DeMelo should secure us a bottom 3 finish and I definitely now think they should’ve given up that pick.

 

[Micklebot]

Exactly. I like Tkachuk and was fine with using the 2018 pick, back when it seemed like we might have Karlsson until at least the trade deadline. Heathy EK and a youth infusion might’ve been able to pull us out of the bottom 5, but swapping him out for Dylan DeMelo should secure us a bottom 3 finish and I definitely now think they should’ve given up that pick.

Yep.

Heck, even if we'd gotten the rumoured deal from VGK that included Theodore and futures, or a deal from TB with Sergachev that could have been enough to make me second guess passing on Tkachuk for fear that we might be better than expected.

But adding a 3rd line center and a bottom pair Dman for a generational dman all but guarantees us struggling this year.

 

[MtRundle]

Yep.

Heck, even if we'd gotten the rumoured deal from VGK that included Theodore and futures, or a deal from TB with Sergachev that could have been enough to make me second guess passing on Tkachuk for fear that we might be better than expected.

But adding a 3rd line center and a bottom pair Dman for a generational dman all but guarantees us struggling this year.

And the year after- we are not even close to a .500 team until 2020-2021

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Its absolutely insane how we used our 2018 pick while knowing Karlsson was as good as gone. I had someone tell me if we drafted Tkachuk then its cause EK was almost def staying or staying to the deadline. That's why I was so confident and enthusiastic when we selected Tkachuk and kept the pick.

in hindsight, even marketing Tkachuk, it makes no sense to have kept the pick. Even if the 2019 pick ended up flopping, you don't trade eK for peanuts and then expect the fanbase to enjoy the season knowing there is strong chance of being in the basement and without a pick on a top-end heavy draft. makes no sense.

 

[Sensinitis]

This is gonna be a controversial opinion but idgaf.

I think we’re better off this year without the Karlsson we had last year (save for maybe the last 10-15 games).