Young Malkin VS Matthews

[Regal]

Following the principle that one should compare the two players when one of them was a year and a couple months older than the other, instead of comparing the two when one of them was just a couple months older than the other (in which case Matthews would have come out ahead in points both at ES and on the PP).

No comparison is going to be perfect. If you use Malkin's rookie year he's losing out on experience, which is huge for a player, especially one who didn't play in North America. Malkin made a big leap in his second year, and showed greater improvement than Matthews did in his. The assumption that any player who is better at 20 is more likely to continue to be is incredibly flawed and one of the major reasons why scouting is so difficult. Their production at same ages is certainly worth considering, but not at the cost of ignoring what Malkin became.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Following the principle that one should compare the two players when one of them was a year and a couple months older than the other, instead of comparing the two when one of them was just a couple months older than the other (in which case Matthews would have come out ahead in points both at ES and on the PP).

So it's better to compare by age rather than by the fact one will have the benefit of a full year's NHL experience?

This way is more fair since both have a full year to acclimatize to the NHL under their belt, and it's their second season. Your method basically assumes that just being a year older will offset the fact it's their rookie season.

 

[SUX2BU]

Malkin AINEC

 

[zeke]

EVTOI:
Matthews - 989:20
Malkin - 1269:09

PPTOI:
Matthews - 133:04
Malkin - 412:42

ES Points:
Matthews - 50
Malkin - 66

PP Points:
Matthews - 13
Malkin - 40

If Matthews played the *exact* same minutes as Malkin played in 2007-08, based on his production in the minutes he played this past season, his totals would look like:

ES Points - 64 (50 divided by 989:20 multiplied by 1269:09)
PP Points - 40 (13 divided by 133:04 multiplied by 412:42)

Their "projected" numbers look similar based on my rudimentary calculations, but it is based on the assumption that Matthews' game wouldn't be affected by the extra minutes (fatigue-factor).

The irony? Malkin projects to be a better ES producer than Matthews, despite the belief that it would be the PP where Malkin holds the edge.

(Note: I did the above really quickly. If the numbers are off or I missed a calculation, blame me hurrying)

calculations look bang on to me, sid!

so Matthews was as good offensively at 20 as Malkin was at 21 - even while playing MUCH tougher minutes.

fascinating.

 

[zeke]

how good is it, btw, that people are pretending that Matthews would havel to match malkin's production while playing in 20 LESS GAMES for us to be allowed to call them comparable?

 

[member 298589]

Not sure why people bother advocating for Matthews. He is a Leaf. Thus, because we can be an insufferable fan base and because other fan bases are self conscious, he will always seen below where he actually is.

The way I see it, Toronto fans mentioning him being McDavid level and other fans mentioning him being #25 C basically cancel each other out.

 

[biotk]

No comparison is going to be perfect. If you use Malkin's rookie year he's losing out on experience, which is huge for a player, especially one who didn't play in North America.

So it's better to compare by age rather than by the fact one will have the benefit of a full year's NHL experience?

This way is more fair since both have a full year to acclimatize to the NHL under their belt, and it's their second season. Your method basically assumes that just being a year older will offset the fact it's their rookie season.

The acclimatize/NHL experience argument is extremely stupid. Good players have consistently done well right away. Ovi (better numbers in his first season than his second) Kovalchuk, Fedorov, Bure, Zhamnov, Yashin, etc. Malkin was the same. He had 7 goals and 11 points in his first 6 games. It is pure nonsense. ​

 

[Regal]

The acclimatize/NHL experience argument is extremely stupid. Good players have consistently done well right away. Ovi (better numbers in his first season than his second) Kovalchuk, Fedorov, Bure, Zhamnov, Yashin, etc. Malkin was the same. He had 7 goals and 11 points in his first 6 games. It is pure nonsense. ​

Ovechkin is literally the only player you listed who did worse in his second season. The fact that a player does well his first year doesn't mean he wasn't still adjusting to the league. Its hilarious youd use Bure for example when he spent half of his first year looking great but struggling to actually score.

 

[biotk]

Yawn. I apologize for thinking you were worth responding to initially

Sorry that you are wrong about things. You could improve that through learning.

 

[Brownies]

Matthews came into the League and scored 40 goals. Malin came into the league and was a top player right away. You might have a favorite, but the discussion is valid. I like em both a lot, but my choixe is Malkin. I like his intensity and his superior playmaking skills (while being as good a goal scorer IMO).

 

[1972]

Matthews severely lacks the vision and playmaking ability to be in that class. He’s as good of a pure goal scorer as I’ve seen, that’s his bread and butter.

 

[bionic]

Matthews severely lacks the vision and playmaking ability to be in that class. He’s as good of a pure goal scorer as I’ve seen, that’s his bread and butter.

Pure nonsense, what he lacks is a winger that isn't Hyman. The amount of plays that died on his stick was a running joke amongst leaf fans.
Anyway the numbers posted in this thread already proves Matthews at 20 was just as good as Malkin at 21, don't Know why people are still trying to argue.

 

[CanadienShark]

Young and current Malkin is a at least whole level above Matthews.

 

[CanadienShark]

They're in the same tier.

I know people don't understand context at all on HFboards, so I'll have to explain it here, but you can't compare their numbers at early points because the situations were way different.

Malkin was getting nearly 6 minutes of PP time a game in that 20 year-old rookie season, no, that's no joke.

In fact, Malkin got over 5 minutes per game on the PP in each of his first 3 seasons in the NHL.

Even with that though, both Malkin and Matthews are two of only six centers that have averaged a point-per game in their 20 year old season, going back over 20 years.

That's impressive.

Matthews is also the only teenage rookie to finish top 3 in goals for a season(tied for 2nd).

This is why they're in a same tier.

Matthews has a lot of work to do to have the legacy that Malkin has, but the talent is there.

So your argument (in brief form) is:

1. People don't understand context here on HFBoards.
2. Malkin played a lot on the PP.
3. Malkin and Matthews both went PPG as 20 year olds, two of only six to do so in the last 20 years.

That last point is impressive, but that's one comparison you can make between the two. They're not on the same tier. Not even close.

 

[Battle Lin]

probably the closest center to a young malkin since malkin

 

[bionic]

So your argument (in brief form) is:

1. People don't understand context here on HFBoards.
2. Malkin played a lot on the PP.
3. Malkin and Matthews both went PPG as 20 year olds, two of only six to do so in the last 20 years.

That last point is impressive, but that's one comparison you can make between the two. They're not on the same tier. Not even close.

So far in the first two years in the league Matthews is a better goal scorer. That's another comparison

 

[ScaredStreit]

Matthews is easily the most overrated player on HF (at least the main boards). He's an awesome young player...but I've seen him compared to McDavid, Malkin, Crosby, etc. Let's wait until Matthews scores 80+ points before we even consider those conversations.

Matthews's best year ppg was this year with 63 points in 62 games. Malkin has never scored 63 points or lower in any season where he's played 62 games and has actually outscored that while playing fewer than 62 games before. in 2017 Malkin played 62 games (exact amount Matthews just did), and scored 9 more points than Matthews. In a full season Malkin has never scored lower than 69 points in any season where he played in at least 60 games.

Factor in 2 Art Rosses, a Hart, Lindsay, Conn Smythe and Matthew's nowhere Malkin. He's nowhere near Malkin even in Malkin's first few years

 

[X66]

So your argument (in brief form) is:

1. People don't understand context here on HFBoards.
2. Malkin played a lot on the PP.
3. Malkin and Matthews both went PPG as 20 year olds, two of only six to do so in the last 20 years.

That last point is impressive, but that's one comparison you can make between the two. They're not on the same tier. Not even close.

The point is, comparing their numbers early on in their careers needs to be put in the right context.

Playing nearly 6 minutes a game on the PP in your first season, and well over 5 minutes per-game the next two seasons will boost your numbers greatly.

I doubt Matthews is going to score 100+ points next year like Malkin did in his 21 year-old season, but I doubt Malkin would as well if you cut 3 mins of PP time a game.

The even-strength points Matthews was putting up this year were right up there with Malkin on the years he was winning and contending for scoring titles early in his career. The main difference is the 3+ minutes of PP time.

To say they're not even close is just flat out wrong.

They're legacies might not be close, but that's a different story.

 

[authentic]

Rookie season was close but 2nd season is Malkin.

 

[X66]

Matthews severely lacks the vision and playmaking ability to be in that class. He’s as good of a pure goal scorer as I’ve seen, that’s his bread and butter.

This is also not true, and it'll be more apparent with some better luck.

Matthews is an elite high-danger shot assist player, higher than Marner even on the Leafs.

He's in the 90th percentile for primary assists, but in the 50s for secondary assists, which is completely out of his control.

I agree in the sense that he'll always be a shoot-first center, but he's the complete package.

 

[ScaredStreit]

So far in the first two years in the league Matthews is a better goal scorer. That's another comparison

Even that's debatable. All other aspects of the game aren't up to debate: Malkin was better.

 

[ScaredStreit]

This is also not true, and it'll be more apparent with some better luck.

Matthews is an elite high-danger shot assist player, higher than Marner even on the Leafs.

He's in the 90th percentile for primary assists, but in the 50s for secondary assists, which is completely out of his control.

I agree in the sense that he'll always be a shoot-first center, but he's the complete package.

Matthews has never scored 30 assists in a season. Malkin is a much better all around player. I know you're a Leaf fan and all...but there's nothing biased in what I stated: just facts.

 

[authentic]

Even that's debatable. All other aspects of the game aren't up to debate: Malkin was better.

No, no it's not.

 

[ScaredStreit]

No, no it's not.

-Malkin scored more goals over his first 2 season than Matthews
-Malkin has the highest goal total out of his and Matthews's first two seasons
-Malkin's highest finish was 4th, Matthews's was 3rd

The above are all facts.

How is Matthews clearly (aka not up for debate) a better goal scorer than Malkin was his first 2 seasons?

Unless you meant as an overall player...I'd love to hear how Matthews comes close to Malkin as an overall player in their first 2 seasons.

 

[X66]

-Malkin scored more goals over his first 2 season than Matthews
-Malkin has the highest goal total out of his and Matthews's first two seasons
-Malkin's highest finish was 4th, Matthews's was 3rd

How is Matthews clearly (aka not up for debate) a better goal scorer than Malkin was his first 2 seasons?

Were those in his 19/20 seasons?

Lol.

We'll see what Matthews puts up next year.

I don't know why people are so upset that Matthews is in the same tier as Malkin in terms of his hockey skill.

He was a better prospect than Malkin at the same age, and his 20 year-old season is right there with Malkin's as well.

I'd say it's even more impressive, considering he did it against harder competition and with 4 less minutes of PP time a game...

Lets circle back in a few years and see how they stack-up.

Matthews is more than capable of putting up a 50/50 season next year, and yet people will still be in denial.