Proposal: Young LD for Petry

[sansabri]

IMO no team is going to pay out the nose for a guy who is over 30 like that. Now if he was 28 then it would make a difference to most GM's but the fact that he will be 31 in a month means his best years are behind him.

No team will move a top prospect D + 1st + for him. If that is the type of return expected he will sit like Tanev has in Vancouver.

Especially considering that the Habs only moved a 2nd and 5th for him originally. We'll see what others have to say.

Shop elsewhere.

 

[Baksfamous112]

He's the Leafs top prospect and most certainly not a B prospect. He's in the AHL at 18 and impressed Leaf management in training camp.

Either way, like I said, you guys only paid a 2nd for him to get him. Much older now he will not return 2-3 times that price in trade.

Doesn’t matter what price we paid 3 years ago. He was pending UFA, the Oilers were out of the playoff picture and he had no desire to stay there.

Ask yourself, had I bought Apple’s share 3 years ago and kept them and decided to sell them now, would I sell them 5x what I paid them (what they worth now) or sell them for what I paid back then because “It’s what I paid back then”

 

[Captain Mountain]

what if Gardiner was extended? I think market for him is going to be high $5M's to $6M as a ceiling, probably 6 years

Gardiner isn't going to extend until free agency. And his market is probably just under $6mil to around $7 mil if he's going to a new team (might be the same in Toronto too). And I really don't see Montreal considering Gardiner for Petry.

Well you also have to be realistic too. Petry is 30 and a 2nd pair RD on a contending team although he could play the top pair (which the Leafs are desperate enough to use him as). However he isn't going to return a younger top pairing LD or even a young future top pairing LD 1 for 1 as that is just a poor trade for the other team.

So either it will be Petry + something to make up that value for a younger guy like Dermott or Petry for a young player who might get there (like a Sandin) + a few other things in a package for him (Like Sandin + draft pick + some depth roster player).

I think Dermott is going to need to show what he can do higher in the line-up to get any plus of note on Petry.

And unless the pick with Sandin is really good, I don't see the reason for Montreal to make a trade.

 

[57special]

Are you talking about Mike or Morgan? Hopefully Mike...

Mike Reilly
Morgan Rielly

 

[Captain Mountain]

Good enough to play big minutes on two Cup winners.

Funny enough, TOI isn't really a measure of if a D-man is good or not.

And Maatta was 5th in TOI/GP in 15/16 and 3rd in TOI/GP in 16/17 on the Pens runs. Behind such great D-men like Hainsey and Daley.

You think Maatta is a good young D-man. I'm not a fan. Enjoy him on the Pens.

 

[Captain Mountain]

With Reilly as an offensive talented, defensively challenged LHD, I don't see room for another, let alone one who wants north of 5.5M. I think MTL wants a good skater to match their up tempo game, but one with defensive chops.

Petry for Montreal native Scandella? Big LHD, with decent skating and defensive skills. BUFF would've said no after last season, but I'm sure they are already turning on him after a slow start to the season.

I really wouldn't call Scandella good defensively. He's also only two years younger and has less team control.

 

[57special]

I really wouldn't call Scandella good defensively. He's also only two years younger and has less team control.

I would. Especially in the right system, where the forwards do their share. Scandella was more than adequate in MN. In BUF? Well, he was a godsend to them last year, but I don't know what sort of defensive system they have there. Certainly not the equal of what they have in MN or MTL.

 

[Connor McConnor]

No. Weber traded first. Not petry

Who in their right mind would want Weber and his contract? Unless you are retaining a significant amount.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Gardiner isn't going to extend until free agency. And his market is probably just under $6mil to around $7 mil if he's going to a new team (might be the same in Toronto too). And I really don't see Montreal considering Gardiner for Petry.

I think that's presumptuous, there's a whole year to play where he could get hurt or bomb, either of which could cost him money. He would probably have to feel like what he was offered is close to market but $5.75-$6M should be that. I don't see an argument for Gardiner at $7M when Ellis just took $6.25M for a contract that takes effect at the same time

 

[Captain Mountain]

I would. Especially in the right system, where the forwards do their share. Scandella was more than adequate in MN. In BUF? Well, he was a godsend to them last year, but I don't know what sort of defensive system they have there. Certainly not the equal of what they have in MN or MTL.

I just don't see Montreal's need for LHD to justify trading Petry for an inferior player (offensively, transition, possession impacts, defensive impacts) that's not a lot younger or have more upside and offers less control. Montreal isn't that hard up for LHD, trading Petry is more of a long-term planning thing (Montreal has Weber locked up forever, Juulsen looks good and Montreal's best D prospects are RHD).

 

[Captain Mountain]

I think that's presumptuous, there's a whole year to play where he could get hurt or bomb, either of which could cost him money. He would probably have to feel like what he was offered is close to market but $5.75-$6M should be that. I don't see an argument for Gardiner at $7M when Ellis just took $6.25M for a contract that takes effect at the same time

I'm just basing it on recent UFA or pending UFA comparable, the fact that his stats are really good, he'll still be the best LHD UFA by a large margin and comments from guys like Bobby Mac and LeBrun.

UFAs always get overpaid by at least a mil, usually more. Ellis was an RFA.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I'm just basing it on recent UFA or pending UFA comparable, the fact that his stats are really good, he'll still be the best LHD UFA by a large margin and comments from guys like Bobby Mac and LeBrun.

UFAs always get overpaid by at least a mil, usually more. Ellis was an RFA.

Ellis was a UFA who signed the summer heading into his last RFA year, the same as what Gardiner is now plus a couple of months

Ryan Ellis - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Captain Mountain]

Ellis was a UFA who signed the summer heading into his last RFA year, the same as what Gardiner is now plus a couple of months

Ryan Ellis - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Fair enough. I still don't think that's probably at the lower end of what Gardiner would get. Look at Schmidt, look at Yandle, look at Shattenkirk.

And remember the rising cap.

Ellis took a small discount to stay in Nashville. Gardiner might do that in Toronto. He wont do it on the open market.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Fair enough. I still don't think that's probably at the lower end of what Gardiner would get. Look at Schmidt, look at Yandle, look at Shattenkirk.

And remember the rising cap.

Ellis took a small discount to stay in Nashville. Gardiner might do that in Toronto. He wont do it on the open market.

rising cap won't have any effect, the deals are effective in the same year, the only thing that could have an effect is if a Gardiner deal was done after the cap number for 19-20 was announced. Ellis just signed this summer, he still had a year left on his deal

I think Ellis' situation is the most comparable to what we're talking about here, Gardiner would get the security of guaranteed money to justify a small discount and ward off the risks of injury/regression hurting his open market number. My premise was a current sign-and-trade with Gardiner so it wouldn't be an open market scenario

 

[Captain Mountain]

rising cap won't have any effect, the deals are effective in the same year, the only thing that could have an effect is if a Gardiner deal was done after the cap number for 19-20 was announced. Ellis just signed this summer, he still had a year left on his deal

I think Ellis' situation is the most comparable to what we're talking about here, Gardiner would get the security of guaranteed money to justify a small discount and ward off the risks of injury/regression hurting his open market number

Fine, but the only situation he might take a small cut is if he's staying in Toronto. He's not going to do a mid-season sign and trade.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Fine, but the only situation he might take a small cut is if he's staying in Toronto. He's not going to do a mid-season sign and trade.

I don't think the real benefit that he would be after is staying in Toronto, it's the financial security. He would probably want to control his situation, I'll give you that, but if it were a sign-and-trade he was signing off on ahead of time I don't see why he wouldn't. Montreal probably isn't that destination I guess with the expected trajectory of the team for the next little bit and the language barrier

 

[Kamiccolo]

Gardiner isn't going to extend until free agency. And his market is probably just under $6mil to around $7 mil if he's going to a new team (might be the same in Toronto too). And I really don't see Montreal considering Gardiner for Petry.



I think Dermott is going to need to show what he can do higher in the line-up to get any plus of note on Petry.

And unless the pick with Sandin is really good, I don't see the reason for Montreal to make a trade.

He has some of the best numbers of any third pairing D and elevates the numbers of his partners like crazy. Athletic had an article of the difference of Polak's numbers with and without Dermott which was insane.

Not his fault he has two 50 point D ahead of him that is for sure, and by the time he shows more he is going to be an early 20's proven top 4 D which is one of the most valuable pieces in the game.

 

[wintersej]

Leafs desperately need a top 4 RD and have one of the deepest LD in the league. There would certainly be a deal there somewhere but I suspect there will be significant disagreement in values.

For example Dermott is a no go he might be just as good as Petry by the end of the year and is only 21. However Borgman or Rosen is a rip off. Then you have Sandin but the Leafs are high on him. Then a bunch of depth pieces.. Marincin, Neilsen for example.

A lot will depend on what they want to do with Gardiner as well... but they make good partners here.

I mean, Dermott PLUS is the answer here, but I understand that Dermott is (1) loved by the fan base and (2) Gardiner insurance. Because of that... I mean they obviously don't make good partners?

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Maatta for Petry with 1.5 mil per retained to balance out the cap.

Maata is garbage

 

[Captain Mountain]

He has some of the best numbers of any third pairing D and elevates the numbers of his partners like crazy. Athletic had an article of the difference of Polak's numbers with and without Dermott which was insane.

Not his fault he has two 50 point D ahead of him that is for sure, and by the time he shows more he is going to be an early 20's proven top 4 D which is one of the most valuable pieces in the game.

I like Dermott a lot. I've read all that stuff. But Montreal has a better 3rd pair D-man this season based on those numbers by the name of Jordie Benn (and Ouellet is there too). And I still remember Beaulieu entering the league like gangbusters too. I don't want or expect a team to trade any D-man with term that shows he can play tough minutes and thrive for young D-man that has only played on a third pair (and doesn't have high pedigree). Let alone add.

 

[Kamiccolo]

I like Dermott a lot. I've read all that stuff. But Montreal has a better 3rd pair D-man this season based on those numbers by the name of Jordie Benn (and Ouellet is there too). And I still remember Beaulieu entering the league like gangbusters too. I don't want or expect a team to trade any D-man with term that shows he can play tough minutes and thrive for young D-man that has only played on a third pair (and doesn't have high pedigree). Let alone add.

Come on dude. Jordie Benn? You talking the piss right now?

 

[Captain Mountain]

I don't think the real benefit that he would be after is staying in Toronto, it's the financial security. He would probably want to control his situation, I'll give you that, but if it were a sign-and-trade he was signing off on ahead of time I don't see why he wouldn't. Montreal probably isn't that destination I guess with the expected trajectory of the team for the next little bit and the language barrier

But isn't that the problem? How many teams are:

a) projected to be competitive now or really soon;
b) have the cap space for Gardiner;
c) have the depth at RHD to trade a comparable D away; and
d) have a RHD with term to send the other way?

 

[Captain Mountain]

Come on dude. Jordie Benn? You talking the piss right now?

Don't cite Tulloch's article looking at Dermott's shot share and chance share and be upset when I name a player that has outperformed him in both on the 3rd pair this season. Dermott hasn't proven himself yet. He's not going to get a guy with term, great underlying numbers, 41 points last season and is P/GP this season. Plus.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Don't cite Tulloch's article looking at Dermott's shot share and chance share and be upset when I name a player that has outperformed him in both on the 3rd pair this season. Dermott hasn't proven himself yet. He's not going to get a guy with term, great underlying numbers, 41 points last season and is P/GP this season. Plus.

Dermott is a cost controlled 21 year old, petry is 30 years old with some years left on his contract.
No team should be giving away young dman with good to great potential for dman like petry(who i like and would want on the leafs).

Also comparing jordie benn to dermott is very disingenuous. He has struggled to be a good nhl dman for a long time. Just cause Hes had a good 9 game sample doesnt undo the last 6 years. Compare that to Dermott who has looked good at every level of competition hes played, its just silly.

 

[Randy Randerson]

But isn't that the problem? How many teams are:

a) projected to be competitive now or really soon;
b) have the cap space for Gardiner;
c) have the depth at RHD to trade a comparable D away; and
d) have a RHD with term to send the other way?

a - maybe, that may not be Gardiner's priority. Maybe he'd prefer somewhere warm or out of the spotlight over being on a team that's at the top of the contention totem pole. It's hard to know from the outside
b - sure, but a $6M player should fit on all but a few teams if they want him
c & d - I think would depend on what the Leafs are willing to take back. It would be great to get a RHD upgrade but if Dermott is healthy and looking like he's capable of top 4 minutes by the TDL I think we would take a futures package