You Are The GM Fill in the ? _____ needs

[FlyerNutter]

Fletch really has a complicated task if he wants to be smart about it. He needs to go to Scot and say "Hey we need a ****ton of money to sign Panarin," and if that fails he needs to have the vision and foresight to say "hey I believe in our team and our kids, we need to have patience." It's really an impossible task.

I’m very much in favour of this kind of approach.

Want nothing to do with Duchene. Panarin or EK, and if not just roll out with the kids for next year. Don’t really have interest in overpaying for mediocrity.

The foolish thing would be to go and chase a mediocre “vet” dman imo. Play talent over experience.

 

[Striiker]

I need to know where I fall. Thank you.

Well you're not last, or even 2nd or 3rd from the bottom, so take solace in that.

I'd have to see the whole list of people to be sure.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Well you're not last, or even 2nd or 3rd from the bottom, so take solace in that.

I'd have to see the whole list of people to be sure.

Blessings be upon your offspring.

 

[Striiker]

Blessings be upon your offspring.

No such creature exists, luckily.

But I appreciate the sentiment. You've moved up the list.

 

[Strawberry Fields]

I must be in the top five posters on this board with a Beatles reference in their username.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

Wrong thread

 

[deadhead]

I’m very much in favour of this kind of approach.

Want nothing to do with Duchene. Panarin or EK, and if not just roll out with the kids for next year. Don’t really have interest in overpaying for mediocrity.

The foolish thing would be to go and chase a mediocre “vet” dman imo. Play talent over experience.

This is where you look for expiring contracts of overpaid players who are still good players - we have the short-term cap money to take on one or two of these guys, since you're helping a team shed salary the price should be cheap.
If we can't land a star, we're better off with depth we can easily move to make room when a kid shows he's ready.

Not a Lehtera/Filppula salary dump, rather, someone good enough to play but too expensive to justify keeping on a salary cap strapped team. Someone in their early 30s with 1-2 years left on their deal.

What I don't want to do is give 7yrs, $60-70M for Duchene at 28/29, and have to try and dump him at 32/33 with three years left on his deal. He's a 40-45 ES point 2C right now, but in 4 years could be a 30-35 point 3C with below average defense (imagine being stuck with 3 years of Filppula at $9-10M a year!!!!).

And I'm always wary of guys who have big contract years.

 

[deadhead]

. I'm not suggesting the Flyers go nuts signing either to a huge long-term deal, but if they can't get Panarin or Duchene, I'd certainly be looking into their contract demands.

I'd be looking into Erik Karlsson on D, also, but I have a very, very strong feeling the Flyers will end up signing Tyler Myers.

The nub of the matter is both the AVV and the length.
Basically, unless a player is a bonfide star, no contracts past age 32.
General rule is run of the mill guys fall off by 30, top six guys by 32, top guys by 35.
Add a year or two for a defenseman.
And take a year or two off for guys who hit above their weight class, like Simmonds (wear and tear).

 

[Rebels57]

We have so many prospects close to making an impact that we need to give them a chance. It's really kinda lame that we signed Raffl because that roster spot could go to Farabee or NAK or Allison. Also there are a ton of big-name stars who will become available in the coming years, we shouldn't be locked out on those guys because we signed Matt Duchene.

Farabee playing 1st line in LHV > 4th line in NHL

 

[baudib1]

Farabee playing 1st line in LHV > 4th line in NHL

No.

 

[Magua]

Both have 20+ more points than Nolan "2nd line center" Patrick this year.

What a reductive and facile statement /laughing emoji.

The question isn't are they better this season. It's will they be better for the next 4-6 years. Because that might be their contract demands. Perhaps exceeding Patrick's 2nd contract in AAV as well. This isn't a stopgap 1 or 2 year deal or trade. It's a UFA signing, with both players coming off career seasons, the sustainability of which is in question. Long-term UFA deals have long-term ramifications on roster building.

Hayes averaged 46 points/82 games in the 4 seasons prior; Nelson 40 points. Patrick has averaged 34 points/82 games in his age 19 and 20 seasons, with sizable jumps in the 2nd halves. Nelson this season actually has a 0.1 worse overall Goals Above Replacement (according to Evolving Hockey's model) compared to Patrick. Hayes has been worth 1.5 more wins than both, and to be fair, he's having a very good season. I'd be more willing to believe he can sustain it to some degree. But wouldn't you know! Last season, rookie Patrick actually had a higher WAR than Hayes and Nelson. Care to explain that? Likely, Hayes is having a career season; Patrick is still ascending. That doesn't even bring Frost into the equation. Someone gets blocked. For an absolutely superior talent, fine. But for those two UFAs?

If you want to argue whether or not Patrick (with Frost in waiting) is ready to be a 2C on a contending team, fine. There are plausible, albeit hard to find, solutions. I'm not sure of it myself, but that's not the only question mark either. Patience might just be the most realistic option, as we upgrade other positions in and out of house. Emptying the coffers for Brock Nelson or Kevin Hayes, as if they are such too, is textbook management myopia.

 

[Rebels57]

No.

Yes.

Callup option when injuries happen to top 9? Sure. Id rather he not play 8-10 min a night with Laughton as his Center at his age.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

What a reductive and facile statement /laughing emoji.

The question isn't are they better this season. It's will they be better for the next 4-6 years. Because that might be their contract demands. Perhaps exceeding Patrick's 2nd contract in AAV as well. This isn't a stopgap 1 or 2 year deal or trade. It's a UFA signing, with both players coming off career seasons, the sustainability of which is in question. Long-term UFA deals have long-term ramifications on roster building.

Hayes averaged 46 points/82 games in the 4 seasons prior; Nelson 40 points. Patrick has averaged 34 points/82 games in his age 19 and 20 seasons, with sizable jumps in the 2nd halves. Nelson this season actually has a 0.1 worse overall Goals Above Replacement (according to Evolving Hockey's model) compared to Patrick. Hayes has been worth 1.5 more wins than both, and to be fair, he's having a very good season. I'd be more willing to believe he can sustain it to some degree. But wouldn't you know! Last season, rookie Patrick actually had a higher WAR than Hayes and Nelson. Care to explain that? Likely, Hayes is having a career season; Patrick is still ascending. That doesn't even bring Frost into the equation. Someone gets blocked. For an absolutely superior talent, fine. But for those two UFAs?

If you want to argue whether or not Patrick (with Frost in waiting) is ready to be a 2C on a contending team, fine. There are plausible, albeit hard to find, solutions. I'm not sure of it myself, but that's not the only question mark either. Patience might just be the most realistic option, as we upgrade other positions in and out of house. Emptying the coffers for Brock Nelson or Kevin Hayes, as if they are such too, is textbook management myopia.

I think I've been pretty clear that my interest in Hayes, and then Nelson, as backup options this summer is contract-dependent. You seem eager to twist it into my arguing in favor of signing them at any cost, which isn't close to an accurate representation. What I do think is that you are underrating both. Brock Nelson has scored at least 20 goals in 4 out of his last 5 seasons, including 26 once and 24 this season. The only season in the last 5 he didn't score 20, he scored 19. He is 60th in the entire NHL in goals over the last 5 years. Tied with Niederreiter in goals during that span with 109. One goal ahead of O'Reilly and Kopitar. 6 ahead of Couturier and Backstrom. 7 ahead of Justin Williams. 7 behind Giroux. And you're laughing and acting like he's a bum.

I get that the last year or two of their deal both Hayes and Nelson will be on the decline. I'm willing to risk that to ensure being better the next two seasons before Giroux and Voracek go downhill. And as I already showed in this thread, signing a top 6 forward for next season does not block Frost. Each of Duchene, Hayes, and Nelson can easily slide to LW when/if Frost/Patrick prove capable of handling the 2C spot. In the interim, you have a nice third line with Frost and Lindblom on Patrick's wings.

Edit: I should also add that Brock Nelson is 37th in the NHL in even strength goals over the last 5 seasons.

 

[baudib1]

Yes.

Callup option when injuries happen to top 9? Sure. Id rather he not play 8-10 min a night with Laughton as his Center at his age.

You're making this judgment without even seeing how he looks compared to the other Flyers wingers. It's really possible he could just be one of the top 6-8 wingers in camp.

I'd rather he play with Laughton than with Mike Vecchione.

 

[Rebels57]

You're making this judgment without even seeing how he looks compared to the other Flyers wingers. It's really possible he could just be one of the top 6-8 wingers in camp.

I'd rather he play with Laughton than with Mike Vecchione.

Id be cool with Farabee in the top 9, but that would mean Fletcher does nothing in trade or free agency, which I sincerely doubt.

There is only 1 top 9 winger spot up for grabs at the moment though, before any additions are even made.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

If he wants 7 years, $70M, you see what Hayes & Nelson are asking for & weigh your options. They need another center or they’re likely throwing another season away. Both also can slide to wing when the time comes.

I don’t think any of those three are going to be worth it long term at that hit as a second or third line winger. Broken record but if we don’t land a transcendent talent in free agency then go stop gap via trade for someone who can efficiently play 3c and then slide to wing or drop to 4c—cap hit isn’t an issue, term should be.

Had to check the date on this post. Happy it’s April 1st!


I want Q, Panarin, and Trouba.

There seems to be a little bit of unknown value with trouba but they do have the EK deal to negotiate off of. I wouldn’t trade Sanheim, Myers, or Provy to get him.

I’m more and more worried that the ‘peg decides to roll with trouba this year and then let him walk. For their goals I doubt they get a more helpful asset now than trouba is. He ends up an own rental for the jets.

 

[TheKingPin]

I don’t think any of those three are going to be worth it long term at that hit as a second or third line winger. Broken record but if we don’t land a transcendent talent in free agency then go stop gap via trade for someone who can efficiently play 3c and then slide to wing or drop to 4c—cap hit isn’t an issue, term should be.

I’m more and more worried that the ‘peg decides to roll with trouba this year and then let him walk. For their goals I doubt they get a more helpful asset now than trouba is. He ends up an own rental for the jets.

I’ve wondered that too. They have a big window anyway. I guess it depends on the return. I’d we are dumb enough to pay Myers and our first for example than they will love that. Hopefully it comes out that Provy and Ghost had some lingering injury and that’s why they had down years. Less pressure to get a dman.

 

[baudib1]

The Flyers don't have to be a perfect team to win the Metro next season. Certainly the Caps, Pens and Islanders are not perfect teams. Our window should open next year, and we should be in it for a good 5-8 years if we do things right.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

I’ve wondered that too. They have a big window anyway. I guess it depends on the return. I’d we are dumb enough to pay Myers and our first for example than they will love that. Hopefully it comes out that Provy and Ghost had some lingering injury and that’s why they had down years. Less pressure to get a dman.

A lot of problems contributed to the down year for defenseman and forwards alike.

The poor coaching staff and the system they are/were running. The injured goalies, the weak bottom 6 and overuse of antiquated players. The weak forechecking, none cycling game/wall play and lazy backchecking. Handing the puck like a grenade, being outta position, turnovers, playing like an NHL 19 player, rather then a real NHL player (Farmer) etc etc...

 

[bennysflyers16]

Both have 20+ more points than Nolan "2nd line center" Patrick this year.

Not impressed with Hayes at all in Wpg so far. Def don’t want to give a guy like him a big deal imo

 

[bennysflyers16]

IF we go for a Center, hope it’s a Statsny type. Over pay on cap hit, but keep it to a 2-3 yr deal max.

 

[win88ice2004]

I'll start this off by saying i don't want to trade Ghost, but... does Ghost and Frost or Farabee get you Barkov? Florida gets their D man from his home area and an elite prospect. We get Barkov, enough said. You can leave Patrick on the 3rd line forever, since both Barkov and Coots are on steal of contracts for the foreseeable future. At that point you dont need Frost. Biggest hit is on d obviously, but if they want to sign a veteran d man like they say...

Just a thought. move on

 

[deadhead]

I have no problem overpaying on a short-term contract, or taking an overpriced contract with 1-2 years left.

We have $31M in cap room, figure maybe only $10M or so for a long-term deal (because we need to fit all our RFA extensions), but that means $20M floating around the next two years burning a hole in Fletcher's pocket. Since you can't roll it over, use it to pick up veteran depth, and if some kids are ready come March, make TDL deals and eat half the salary.

It's not MY money.

 

[Rebels57]

Not impressed with Hayes at all in Wpg so far. Def don’t want to give a guy like him a big deal imo

Yep. Hes as blah as it gets. Ill be f***ing furious if we sign him.

 

[Rebels57]

I'll start this off by saying i don't want to trade Ghost, but... does Ghost and Frost or Farabee get you Barkov? Florida gets their D man from his home area and an elite prospect. We get Barkov, enough said. You can leave Patrick on the 3rd line forever, since both Barkov and Coots are on steal of contracts for the foreseeable future. At that point you dont need Frost. Biggest hit is on d obviously, but if they want to sign a veteran d man like they say...

Just a thought. move on

Under no circumstance is Florida trading Barkov.