News Article: Yes, It’s Time to Trade Jean-Gabriel Pageau (This time, it’s different.)

[danielpalfredsson]

Unless Pageau takes a soft contract to go to a contender, he is getting 6M+ as a UFA if he finishes the season strong. Players usually take a bit less to re-sign with their team vs sign on the open market. On July 1st, Coyle would have gotten more than he signed for in Boston.

Pageau is an elite 3C. He might win the Selke this year. He can score 35-40 points at ES, more if he gets offensive minutes. We've seen multiple coveted 3rd line centers get in the 4.5 million range under a lower cap. He's on pace for 40 goals and 60 points. Even if he slows down and does 25-30 goals and 50+ points, those are still amazing numbers for a matchup center who isn't getting PP deployment. He'll easily get 6 million.

We also could end up seeing a very wacky July 1st because the actual money committed by teams to players is low. This is because players asked for low money in 20-21 to hedge against a lockout. The result of this could be the NHLPA being more comfortable to use a higher amount or their entire cap escalator. In simple terms, the cap could temporarily jump up more than usual next season.

A player like Pageau is in a dream position to cash in Bobby Holik style. The more I write this post, the more I think it might not be 6....it might be 7 million.

 

[JD1]

I think the play for Ottawa is to move Pageau at the TDL and sell high. If he wants to test the market then we cannot prevent that and if he truly wishes to sign here, he can choose to do that next summer.

I don't think the team should be in any rush to sign a 3C to a ufa type deal with the assets we have. I'd rather have JG than Tierney for the next few years, but moving JG buys time to see what happens with Brown, White, Norris and the 2020 draft.

You have to think that Norris is opening some eyes with bis play in Belleville

 

[Sweatred]

I think the play for Ottawa is to move Pageau at the TDL and sell high. If he wants to test the market then we cannot prevent that and if he truly wishes to sign here, he can choose to do that next summer.

I don't think the team should be in any rush to sign a 3C to a ufa type deal with the assets we have. I'd rather have JG than Tierney for the next few years, but moving JG buys time to see what happens with Brown, White, Norris and the 2020 draft.

You have to think that Norris is opening some eyes with bis play in Belleville

I agree - it also allows the Sens to spend that $5-7 million at a different position. 2-4C is probably the strongest position in the org and we could use that money to add a $5-8 DMAN or winger through trade or FA.

 

[Freaky Styley]

What would it cost to get this guy on the Avs? Most of our posters would prefer him over Hall, and he's a guy that would actually make sense to re-sign for us. Jost would probably have to be in the deal, but what else would it take?

 

[JonnyMacSen]

What would it cost to get this guy on the Avs? Most of our posters would prefer him over Hall, and he's a guy that would actually make sense to re-sign for us. Jost would probably have to be in the deal, but what else would it take?

Pretty sure Dorion has blocked Sakic's number, or at least he should have.

 

[Crosside]

What would it cost to get this guy on the Avs? Most of our posters would prefer him over Hall, and he's a guy that would actually make sense to re-sign for us. Jost would probably have to be in the deal, but what else would it take?

Newhook

 

[Freaky Styley]

Newhook

If Newhook wouldn't be included for Hall he definitely wouldn't for Pageau. I was thinking more like Jost + 2nd or conditional 1st if he re-signs.

 

[Micklebot]

If Newhook wouldn't be included for Hall he definitely wouldn't for Pageau. I was thinking more like Jost + 2nd or conditional 1st if he re-signs.

Personally, I'd be happy with Jost + conditional 1st that's a 2nd if he doesn't re-sign. I really liked Jost in his draft year though.

Ideally, I'd want to get an unconditional 1st from somebody, and a prospect.

 

[Sweatred]

If Newhook wouldn't be included for Hall he definitely wouldn't for Pageau. I was thinking more like Jost + 2nd or conditional 1st if he re-signs.

My guess is another team can do better than Jost and a 2nd.

 

[Que]

Unless Pageau takes a soft contract to go to a contender, he is getting 6M+ as a UFA if he finishes the season strong. Players usually take a bit less to re-sign with their team vs sign on the open market. On July 1st, Coyle would have gotten more than he signed for in Boston.

Pageau is an elite 3C. He might win the Selke this year. He can score 35-40 points at ES, more if he gets offensive minutes. We've seen multiple coveted 3rd line centers get in the 4.5 million range under a lower cap. He's on pace for 40 goals and 60 points. Even if he slows down and does 25-30 goals and 50+ points, those are still amazing numbers for a matchup center who isn't getting PP deployment. He'll easily get 6 million.

We also could end up seeing a very wacky July 1st because the actual money committed by teams to players is low. This is because players asked for low money in 20-21 to hedge against a lockout. The result of this could be the NHLPA being more comfortable to use a higher amount or their entire cap escalator. In simple terms, the cap could temporarily jump up more than usual next season.

A player like Pageau is in a dream position to cash in Bobby Holik style. The more I write this post, the more I think it might not be 6....it might be 7 million.

Pageau >> Hayes

And look how Hayes cashed in.

 

[Cosmix]

Unless Pageau takes a soft contract to go to a contender, he is getting 6M+ as a UFA if he finishes the season strong. Players usually take a bit less to re-sign with their team vs sign on the open market. On July 1st, Coyle would have gotten more than he signed for in Boston.

Pageau is an elite 3C. He might win the Selke this year. He can score 35-40 points at ES, more if he gets offensive minutes. We've seen multiple coveted 3rd line centers get in the 4.5 million range under a lower cap. He's on pace for 40 goals and 60 points. Even if he slows down and does 25-30 goals and 50+ points, those are still amazing numbers for a matchup center who isn't getting PP deployment. He'll easily get 6 million.

We also could end up seeing a very wacky July 1st because the actual money committed by teams to players is low. This is because players asked for low money in 20-21 to hedge against a lockout. The result of this could be the NHLPA being more comfortable to use a higher amount or their entire cap escalator. In simple terms, the cap could temporarily jump up more than usual next season.

A player like Pageau is in a dream position to cash in Bobby Holik style. The more I write this post, the more I think it might not be 6....it might be 7 million.

too expensive at $5M per, so goodbye and good luck.

 

[Synesthesia]

If Newhook wouldn't be included for Hall he definitely wouldn't for Pageau. I was thinking more like Jost + 2nd or conditional 1st if he re-signs.

Admittedly I don't watch the Avs games, but I lurked on their boards a bit earlier in the season and saw many cases of fans saying how bad he was - is he actually? He seems to pop a lot in trade proposals, which is quite often an indicator of people trying to dump their bad pieces...

 

[DrEasy]

Admittedly I don't watch the Avs games, but I lurked on their boards a bit earlier in the season and saw many cases of fans saying how bad he was - is he actually? He seems to pop a lot in trade proposals, which is quite often an indicator of people trying to dump their bad pieces...

Yeah, it's puzzling. Isn't this the same Jost who dazzled during the WJC?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Yeah, it's puzzling. Isn't this the same Jost who dazzled during the WJC?

Jost tied McDavid's record at the U18 worlds - 14 pts. He was very good at the WJC as well. I doubt the Avs would be as willing as the stat watching fans to part with him cheaply. He might have made the jump from college a year earlier than he should have. He did have 16 g and 19a in 33 games for UND and was 1 and done

 

[Sweatred]

Jost tied McDavid's record at the U18 worlds - 14 pts. He was very good at the WJC as well. I doubt the Avs would be as willing as the stat watching fans to part with him cheaply. He might have made the jump from college a year earlier than he should have. He did have 16 g and 19a in 33 games for UND and was 1 and done

Weird draft with Poolparty, Brown, Nylander, Macleod , Bean etc.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Weird draft with Poolparty, Brown, Nylander, Macleod , Bean etc.

Could add Nylander and Sergachev to that list.. edit I just saw Nylander
McAvoy was the big miss imo

 

[BoardsofCanada]

The few times I've watched Tte Avs this season, Jost reminded me of our own Colin White. He seemed to be overwhelmed by the size and speed of the NHL game. On the other hand, he is 21 and has a lot of potential.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

The few times I've watched Tte Avs this season, Jost reminded me of our own Colin White. He seemed to be overwhelmed by the size and speed of the NHL game. On the other hand, he is 21 and has a lot of potential.

White is really struggling offensively but he remains a trust worthy player defensively. He does lack strength but his positioning and his reads are good. I am not saying that is enough for what we want out of him, but it is enough to keep him playing. If it was my decision. I would be talking to him and convincing him to go back to Belleville for a stretch to get his confidence back and to help him find his offensive game. They have a few options down there to bring up . They had Nick Paul on the 4th line today.. He can move up and they can bring Chlapik up again if they continue to want Balcers and Batherson in Belleville. Its a really tough call. I think the guy's confidence is shattered and he is playing like it. He very , very rarely even tries to make something happen and opts for the safe play even if it means turning it over in a safe are of the ice. Not sure what to do with him.. He's not hurting them. He's helping them but not much offensively, other than being 1st on the puck and creating the odd turn over. It seems like an organizational mistake to start him at 1st line C this year.. clearly not ready for a role like that on this roster. I think if they started him where he is now .. it may have been different.. but as he did not succeed there and was demoted and he is continuing to struggle primarily offensively.. I think he needs time to find his game. The NHL probably isn't the best place for him to do that... Just my opinion. I do not care about his contract. I care more about the player succeeding in the end.

 

[Sweatred]

White is really struggling offensively but he remains a trust worthy player defensively. He does lack strength but his positioning and his reads are good. I am not saying that is enough for what we want out of him, but it is enough to keep him playing. If it was my decision. I would be talking to him and convincing him to go back to Belleville for a stretch to get his confidence back and to help him find his offensive game. They have a few options down there to bring up . They had Nick Paul on the 4th line today.. He can move up and they can bring Chlapik up again if they continue to want Balcers and Batherson in Belleville. Its a really tough call. I think the guy's confidence is shattered and he is playing like it. He very , very rarely even tries to make something happen and opts for the safe play even if it means turning it over in a safe are of the ice. Not sure what to do with him.. He's not hurting them. He's helping them but not much offensively, other than being 1st on the puck and creating the odd turn over. It seems like an organizational mistake to start him at 1st line C this year.. clearly not ready for a role like that on this roster. I think if they started him where he is now .. it may have been different.. but as he did not succeed there and was demoted and he is continuing to struggle primarily offensively.. I think he needs time to find his game. The NHL probably isn't the best place for him to do that... Just my opinion. I do not care about his contract. I care more about the player succeeding in the end.

40 Games in the AHL is the best place for him. It will help with confidence and show him where his current talent/skill fit in the org. I hope he would be a top 2-3 forward in Belleville.He will have to decide if he wants to improve his strength over the summer or just collect his $26 million.

It won’t be long before Chaplik, Brown21, Formenton, Norris, Balcers, Abramov, Paul, etc pass him on the death chart and Ennis, Brown type guys are better suited for 3-4th line rolls. He is close to not earning a top 9 spot on this team in 2020. Even now his minutes are more gifted than earned.

 

[Matsens15]

His value keep climbing ... he’s still putting his name on the board every game this will be a tough descision for GMPD

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I'm worried that it might take a full NMC to sign him to reasonable terms. If he ends up reverting to what he was prior to this year, we're stuck protecting a 30 point forward in the expansion draft.

 

[Matsens15]

I'm worried that it might take a full NMC to sign him to reasonable terms. If he ends up reverting to what he was prior to this year, we're stuck protecting a 30 point forward in the expansion draft.

no way GMPD give him a full NMC that will be absolutely brutal

 

[tardigrade81]

I think the play for Ottawa is to move Pageau at the TDL and sell high. If he wants to test the market then we cannot prevent that and if he truly wishes to sign here, he can choose to do that next summer.

I don't think the team should be in any rush to sign a 3C to a ufa type deal with the assets we have. I'd rather have JG than Tierney for the next few years, but moving JG buys time to see what happens with Brown, White, Norris and the 2020 draft.

You have to think that Norris is opening some eyes with bis play in Belleville

Agreed.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Why would we want to not protect Pageau? He will still be a very valuable player a year from now. His value isn't in points. They are just the cherry on top.

He won't get a NMC. We've never given a player a full NMC, and apparently with Stone we only offered him one for part of his contract. Stone is a lot more of a star than Pageau, even with Pageau's elevated game. It's logical to assume that a NMC won't be on the table.

If he does get a NMC, it would probably require a really outlandish situation like he takes a huge discount because he wants to stay in Ottawa. In which case, it would be a good tradeoff.

Pageau is a tricky situation because he's in a prime position to get way overpaid. He is not the worst player to overpay, because unlike some of the bad UFA signings in the past, at least he can play 18-20 minutes a night shutting down top competition. So if he gets 6M+ from someone, even if he is not scoring above 30 or so points, he will always be doing the job of a 4.5M+ center. Where as, with a guy like Ryan, if he's scoring 30 points, he isn't bringing anything beyond those points.

If we are going to actually spend "close to the cap" and we pay Pageau in the 5M range, I would be fine with that. He doesn't need to be a first line producer to live up to that. If we trade him for a 2020 1st +, I would also be fine with that.

If we're a budget team, we should trade him. If there is any internal concern about his ability to hold up over the next 4-5 years, we should trade him. I don't have access to info to answer either of those questions though, so it's hard to have an informed opinion.

5M now is not what it was 2-3 years ago. It's not what it will be 2-3 years from now.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Agreed.

Double dipping by trading him for picks and then re-signing him is the dream scenario. But in real life, it can't always work that way.

Montreal did that a few years back with Plekanec. That sort of things works better with players like Plekanec who aren't going to be super hot free agents.

If we really want to keep Pageau, and something under 5M is on the table now, if we trade him and let him talk to other teams the price could be driven way up July 1st. He could end up being offered 6 or 7 million. People are going to say that's absurd, but who would have thought Hayes would get 7, or that Skinner would get 9?

So if we evaluate that Pageau really wants to stay in Ottawa and is willing to leave money on the table to do it, then dealing him and double dipping might be viable. But if we really want to keep Pageau, there are risks in doing that.