Confirmed Signing with Link: [WSH] - John Carlson 8yr/64m (8mAAV)

[Voight]

About what's expected, bit high AAV but a fair price to pay considering his UFA options.

Certainly sets off discussions in the Karlsson & Doughty camps how much AAV they should ask for if Carlson gets 8.

I imagine they both get between 10-11 million. When DD got 7 million per year back in 2011 it was very rare for d-men to be getting that. Now hes the best defenseman in the league and has two SCF runs + a Norris behind him, just comes down to who signs first/who tops who.

I named my account after Carlson in 2011. The shine on him has worn off, unfortunately.

You do know you can change it, yes?

Side note - I became a huge Carlson fan after the 2010 WJC, even tho he was the reason Canada lost - helped that he played for the Knights tho.

Wounded Devils fan who was under the misguided impression that he was talking to and considering the Devils.

& signing for a "hometown discount"

In retrospect Burns will be getting 8 million per year until his late 30s whereas Carlsons deal will be done by 36.

 

[Sam Spade]

Eugh, that term is gonna hurt in a few years eg. Seabrook/Keith

Keith's contract was 13 years long when he signed it, if it was 8 years long it would have ended this season with Keith being 35 the same age Carlson will be when his contract ends.

8M is fine 8 years on the other hand.....

What do you think Reilly is gonna get in four years when he is 28/29? You have to give 8 years to keep the player.

It reminds me of the Brent Seabrook contract

Except for the three years difference in age between Carlson and Seabrook at the time of the signing.

 

[third man in]

Norris is one thing... But still, we need to think about this. It's a UFA signing, free of assets.

Say his value would be a 1st, a 2nd, a prospect and a #4 defenseman. Might be pretty fair, right? And let's say his actual, fair contract is 6mil per year.

Would you trade away 2 mil of cap space for a 1st, 2nd, a prospect and a #4 defenseman? Of course. That's why it's stupid to say this contract isn't good.


BTW, this is a steal in comparison to that OEL contract.

Right just say Carlson left as a UFA. The caps didn't have a replacement in house.

They would have to trade for a lesser player giving up those assets. Say they traded for Faulk. He would be cheaper for the two more years then he would want big money anyway plus all the assets it would take to acquire him.

Caps like Carlson, already know he fits well on the team, and has shown he could be the #1 on a Cup winning team. No doubt keeping the guy that doesn't cost you any more assets is the right move here.

 

[smd333]

he is not 8M dollar d-men imho. 6-6.5

This just isn't realistic at all. He was going to get more than 8M if he tested other teams.

 

[Fazkovsky]

He is already 28 that’s surprising

 

[tictactoe]

This just isn't realistic at all. He was going to get more than 8M if he tested other teams.

ok.. I would not want my team to pay him 8M a year

 

[1865]

I remember when $5m was considered insane money. I guess this is what you have to pay to keep players like Carlson. He’s not my cup of tea, but it’s a fair enough deal.

 

[haveandare]

I mean, I get the logic Washington fans are pointing here as to why it's 8 years, but the odds of this deal being even decent when he's 35 or 36 are really, really low.

 

[OviTaughtMe]

I mean, I get the logic Washington fans are pointing here as to why it's 8 years, but the odds of this deal being even decent when he's 35 or 36 are really, really low.

Then you just move him on. It’s not that hard.

Can someone name me a deal for 8 or more years that’ll look good at the end??

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Bring him in at 7 years and 7.9 mil per. It's always that extra year and token cash that sinks these deals!

You don't think they tried to get him cheaper? Carlson likely could have gotten more in AAV on the open market. The Caps were the only team who could offer him 8 years instead of 7.

I highly doubt the Caps offered him 8x8, Carlson said, "no, you should pay me less and for fewer years," and the Caps said, "no, we insist," before Carlson begrudgingly accepted a more lucrative deal.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Then you just move him on. It’s not that hard.

Can someone name me a deal for 8 or more years that’ll look good at the end??

Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Hedman, Subban, Kuznetsov, Ekblad, Tarasenko, Backstrom.

Probably some more as well.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

You don't think they tried to get him cheaper? Carlson likely could have gotten more in AAV on the open market. The Caps were the only team who could offer him 8 years instead of 7.

I highly doubt the Caps offered him 8x8, Carlson said, "no, you should pay me less and for fewer years," and the Caps said, "no, we insist," before Carlson begrudgingly accepted a more lucrative deal.

The point I'm making is people tend to freak out over the extra year, the extra $500,000 (or whatever). I'm not a Caps fan but IMO this is a market deal for this caliber of player.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

Caps fans - I am sorry. I'm not sorry for you re-signing Carlson. I'm sorry for all the other fans, perhaps slightly jealous of the cup win and of keeping the core together, perhaps not, coming in to tell you that your player isn't worth this contract.

Carlson is worth $8M in today's NHL. He'll be 36 when the deal ends, which is on the old side, but it is not too old for a defenseman. I'd expect Carlson still top be a top pairing, or middle pairing offensive defenseman at worst by that age. If you had lost Carlson, who would replace him? What would your D look like? Do the Caps have an immediate replacement for Carlson? No. Sometimes you have to pay your players what they're worth to keep them.

Carlson's 68 point season is mind-bogglingly good. But he isn't paid with the expectation of scoring 68 points every year. If he scores 45 points with 10 goals, + hockey, plays 24 minutes a night, and goes up against very good competition, he's worth the money.

I'd much rather have Carlson at $8M than Evander Kane at $7M. If I had the opportunity to get Carlson on my team without giving up any assets for $8M, I'd absolutely take it. It's not a steal, but it's a fair contract.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

I mean, I get the logic Washington fans are pointing here as to why it's 8 years, but the odds of this deal being even decent when he's 35 or 36 are really, really low.

But by then Washington doesn't care because it's window is closed and Ovi is close to retirement

As others have said, they pretty much had to give him that length in order for his AAV to start with an 8
If they wanted to give him 6 yrs I bet he was asking for $9M and he likely gets it on the open market.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Caps fans - I am sorry. I'm not sorry for you re-signing Carlson. I'm sorry for all the other fans, perhaps slightly jealous of the cup win and of keeping the core together, perhaps not, coming in to tell you that your player isn't worth this contract.

Carlson is worth $8M in today's NHL. He'll be 36 when the deal ends, which is on the old side, but it is not too old for a defenseman. I'd expect Carlson still top be a top pairing, or middle pairing offensive defenseman at worst by that age. If you had lost Carlson, who would replace him? What would your D look like? Do the Caps have an immediate replacement for Carlson? No. Sometimes you have to pay your players what they're worth to keep them.

Carlson's 68 point season is mind-bogglingly good. But he isn't paid with the expectation of scoring 68 points every year. If he scores 45 points with 10 goals, + hockey, plays 24 minutes a night, and goes up against very good competition, he's worth the money.

I'd much rather have Carlson at $8M than Evander Kane at $7M. If I had the opportunity to get Carlson on my team without giving up any assets for $8M, I'd absolutely take it. It's not a steal, but it's a fair contract.

Stop with this stuff.

Reasoned analysis without hot takes has no place here.

 

[Kuz]

People talked about 9-9,5 million before he signed and that 8 million would be a discount. When he signs for 8 million everyone goes the other way and its to much.

Most likely it will be way to much in 4-5 years, but if he keeps his level until then while Kuznetsov is in his prime and before Ovechkin and Backström starts to decline then it will be a good deal for the Caps. Now they have secured they are competive for the next years. So for Caps its a good deal as they would have to unload good assets just to get a worse player to replace him and for a team that have the pieces to contend right now there are now reason to want to make your team worse now.

 

[OviTaughtMe]

Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Hedman, Subban, Kuznetsov, Ekblad, Tarasenko, Backstrom.

Probably some more as well.

The best players on the planet. Wow.

Unfortunately there is a rising cap and a players union that is fighting for ALL players to get the most money possible. In this imperfect world, you do what you have to do.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

The best players on the planet. Wow.

Unfortunately there is a rising cap and a players union that is fighting for ALL players to get the most money possible. In this imperfect world, you do what you have to do.

Carlson is absolutely in the Backstrom/Ekblad tier. I'm sure there are more contracts of that ilk that won't look bad at the end either. That's merely a two minute compilation.

As a percentage of the Cap, Carlson's deal is worth less than Niskanen's was at the time of signing. Does Niskanen's deal seem like an overpayment now?

 

[caliamad]

I hope in the next CBA the max length of a contract is reduced to 6 years. 8 years is just too much risk for any team, but the team's have very little leverage not to give it out (other than miss out on top players).

 

[895]

Carlson is absolutely in the Backstrom/Ekblad tier. I'm sure there are more contracts of that ilk that won't look bad at the end either. That's merely a two minute compilation.

As a percentage of the Cap, Carlson's deal is worth less than Niskanen's was at the time of signing. Does Niskanen's deal seem like an overpayment now?

This isn't true btw. Niskanen was 5.75/69million =8.33%

Carlson's is 8/79.5million=10.01%

Though obviously your overall point stands that it's a reasonable contract for Carlson.

 

[895]

People are still stuck in the mentality that number one defensemen should make 7 million. The cap has risen and so have salaries. Elite number ones like Doughty and Karlsson will make 12. Average number ones make 8.

 

[T REX]

No way, He had careers highs in a contract year? That never happens. ANd they then never regress back to their mean.

Look for him to be a 30-40 point player next year...just like the rest of his career.

 

[beowulf]

Damn that's a lot of money for a guy that has been good but had one exceptional year this year. Without this past season how much less does he get? Will he repeat it?

 

[Rabid Ranger]

No way, He had careers highs in a contract year? That never happens. ANd they then never regress back to their mean.

Look for him to be a 30-40 point player next year...just like the rest of his career.

So he'll have his production cut in half? Why?

 

[Dr Amazing204]

nice good job for Washington