Confirmed Signing with Link: [WSH] - John Carlson 8yr/64m (8mAAV)

T REX

Registered User
Feb 28, 2013
10,905
8,249
John Carlson Career Stats

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/-PIMPPGPPPSHGSHPGWGOTGSS%FO%
2009-2010WSH22156118000000214.80
2010-2011WSH827303721441600301444.90
2011-2012WSH8292332-15224701001525.90
2012-2013WSH48616221118050000976.2100
2013-2014WSH82102737-32252201002084.80
2014-2015WSH82124355112831611301936.20
2015-2016WSH5683139161421401411246.50
2016-2017WSH7292837710316013018050
2017-2018WSH8215536803243200412376.30
Career-608772563335919822118151721,3565.725
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

Which season is not like the others? How many times has a guy had career numbers in a contract year and gotten pain only to never live up to those numbers again? I hate when guys get paid based on ONE year. It's bad for sports.
 

Dr Jan Itor

Registered User
Dec 10, 2009
44,922
19,779
MinneSNOWta
John Carlson Career Stats

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/-PIMPPGPPPSHGSHPGWGOTGSS%FO%
2009-2010WSH22156118000000214.80
2010-2011WSH827303721441600301444.90
2011-2012WSH8292332-15224701001525.90
2012-2013WSH48616221118050000976.2100
2013-2014WSH82102737-32252201002084.80
2014-2015WSH82124355112831611301936.20
2015-2016WSH5683139161421401411246.50
2016-2017WSH7292837710316013018050
2017-2018WSH8215536803243200412376.30
Career-608772563335919822118151721,3565.725
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]
Which season is not like the others? How many times has a guy had career numbers in a contract year and gotten pain only to never live up to those numbers again? I hate when guys get paid based on ONE year. It's bad for sports.

2014-15 was pretty darn good.
2015-16 is better than 2014-15 when extrapolated to 82 games.
Prior to 2014-15, he wasn't the #1 offensive option on the blueline (behind Mike Green).

$8M is fine for where he likely going to fall, which is 50 to 65 points.
 

um

Registered User
Sep 4, 2008
15,696
5,292
toronto
John Carlson Career Stats

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/-PIMPPGPPPSHGSHPGWGOTGSS%FO%
2009-2010WSH22156118000000214.80
2010-2011WSH827303721441600301444.90
2011-2012WSH8292332-15224701001525.90
2012-2013WSH48616221118050000976.2100
2013-2014WSH82102737-32252201002084.80
2014-2015WSH82124355112831611301936.20
2015-2016WSH5683139161421401411246.50
2016-2017WSH7292837710316013018050
2017-2018WSH8215536803243200412376.30
Career-608772563335919822118151721,3565.725
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]
Which season is not like the others? How many times has a guy had career numbers in a contract year and gotten pain only to never live up to those numbers again? I hate when guys get paid based on ONE year. It's bad for sports.

Thanks for you're in depth stat watching, It really is the best way to evaluate players.
 

Devil Dancer

Registered User
Jan 21, 2006
18,439
5,406
The band's staying together for another run, I love it.

Except for Trotz, of course. We'll see if he was the glue or not.
 

Skin Tape Session

Registered User
Oct 7, 2017
1,584
725
John Carlson Career Stats

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/-PIMPPGPPPSHGSHPGWGOTGSS%FO%
2009-2010WSH22156118000000214.80
2010-2011WSH827303721441600301444.90
2011-2012WSH8292332-15224701001525.90
2012-2013WSH48616221118050000976.2100
2013-2014WSH82102737-32252201002084.80
2014-2015WSH82124355112831611301936.20
2015-2016WSH5683139161421401411246.50
2016-2017WSH7292837710316013018050
2017-2018WSH8215536803243200412376.30
Career-608772563335919822118151721,3565.725
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]
Which season is not like the others? How many times has a guy had career numbers in a contract year and gotten pain only to never live up to those numbers again? I hate when guys get paid based on ONE year. It's bad for sports.

to be fair he eats a shit ton of minutes and is pretty good defensivly. His numbers dont tell the whole story. The problem is he was massivly underpaid and had the team buy the balls, f*** you pay me. if he left they were f***ed and everyone knew it.

Its a fine contract for the next 4 years and the last four may be very bad. they decided the good four are worth the bad four.
 

TMLeafs18

Registered User
Aug 7, 2015
671
420
Canada
I didn’t realize Carlson’s underlying numbers throughout his career were so rough. Still if I was the Capitals I would have done this deal. You just won a cup and he was a major contributor. He also is a right handed dman which is about as rare as a first line center, you can’t let those guys walk in free agency.
 

txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
69,649
14,131
New Bern, NC
Norris is one thing... But still, we need to think about this. It's a UFA signing, free of assets.

Say his value would be a 1st, a 2nd, a prospect and a #4 defenseman. Might be pretty fair, right? And let's say his actual, fair contract is 6mil per year.

Would you trade away 2 mil of cap space for a 1st, 2nd, a prospect and a #4 defenseman? Of course. That's why it's stupid to say this contract isn't good.

Personally, I think suggesting Carlson's fair value is $6m is insulting to the player unless you are also discounting the rest of the contracts in this category.
 

third man in

Registered User
Jul 27, 2007
4,507
1,204
Maryland
to be fair he eats a **** ton of minutes and is pretty good defensivly. His numbers dont tell the whole story. The problem is he was massivly underpaid and had the team buy the balls, **** you pay me. if he left they were ****ed and everyone knew it.

Its a fine contract for the next 4 years and the last four may be very bad. they decided the good four are worth the bad four.
I don't even get the last 4 years are going to be bad part. Unless you expect JC to be a complete shell of himself, I'm not understanding. The Cap keeps rising, 6-7 years from now 8mil might be #3 money. Similar to Niskanen's deal. Everyone thought that was crazy at the time. Dude has earned every penny. 5.75 seems cheap now. Carlson shouldn't be a scub in his early to mid 30s.

Same with Eller. Extend Eller until he's 33: "gasp, but that's so ancient" will he even be able to walk by then. Caps just had an overpaid but effective 37 year old defenseman who played tough minutes last season. Even contributed to their cup win.
 

Fallschirmyager

Registered User
Jun 25, 2009
5,481
866
You got me there pal.. No idea.. with that type of contract? I like Carlson and I was hoping Flyers would target him but he is not 8M dollar d-men imho. 6-6.5 but he is making as much as Hedman or Shea Weber... Contracts are getting out of hand and Caps bought Carlson at the very high price.

6-6.5 offer would earn a response of "I'm not going to my client with that offer." Carlsons value is what the market will pay and this player would have garnered more offers over 8 mil per than under it in free agency.
 

tictactoe

Registered User
Jan 15, 2017
18,601
9,709
6-6.5 offer would earn a response of "I'm not going to my client with that offer." Carlsons value is what the market will pay and this player would have garnered more offers over 8 mil per than under it in free agency.
Caps should of walked... guy is going to pull Seabrook real soon.. again this is just my opinion.
 

Nsjohnson

Hockey.
Jun 22, 2012
4,814
1,660
Miami
Good signing. They have like a two or three year window that is real good to make it to the Cup finals again. It's worth it.
 

T REX

Registered User
Feb 28, 2013
10,905
8,249
You're an actual joke.

Even your stat watching is weak if you think Carlson is a 30-40 point defenseman. No surprise given your playoff hot takes, but I would think you'd have seen more of Carlson than that for some reason. Hard to put a finger on it....
He'll regress to his mean. Not sure what the issue is...I'm sure it will be closer to the 40 number. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he doesn't repeat his career year(during a contract season).

Care to wager some $$$$?
 

Dr Jan Itor

Registered User
Dec 10, 2009
44,922
19,779
MinneSNOWta
He'll regress to his mean. Not sure what the issue is...I'm sure it will be closer to the 40 number. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he doesn't repeat his career year(during a contract season).

Care to wager some $$$$?

His "mean" isn't variable free.
 

T REX

Registered User
Feb 28, 2013
10,905
8,249
His "mean" isn't variable free.

I didn't say it wasn't. My point is that he head a career year during a contract year. That was more my point than anything else. It happens in all sports. Then some poor team signs the guy expecting that year's results and a majority of the time the player does not live up to the contract. I am sorry that this ground breaking observation is ruffling some feathers. My bad.
 

Dr Jan Itor

Registered User
Dec 10, 2009
44,922
19,779
MinneSNOWta
I didn't say it wasn't. My point is that he head a career year during a contract year. That was more my point than anything else. It happens in all sports. Then some poor team signs the guy expecting that year's results and a majority of the time the player does not live up to the contract. I am sorry that this ground breaking observation is ruffling some feathers. My bad.

The "ground breaking" part of your observation is that you think he's going to go back to producing like he was the 2nd option behind Mike Green in his early 20's. And not the years between then and now, where he has been, and will continue to be, the bonafide #1 offensive option on the blueline.
 
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