Would You Have Made The Duchene Trade?

[IranCondraAffair]

To me, this is the Ryan deal all over again.

Ryan is better than any of the assets we gave up for him, he's just suffered through injuries and costs too much so we were probably better off NOT making the trade. Similarly, Duchene is a very good player but if we re-sign him it will cost too much and we will end up endlessly debating it.

We gave up Turris, Bowers, a 1st and a 3rd. Except Turris, none of those assets are particularly concerning for me. Bowers is an alright prospect, but he's been severely overshadowed by Formenton and Batherson. Giving Bowers up is fine just like giving up Noesen was. Similarly, the 1st isn't the end of the world, though we did get bit by a poor finish with the Ryan trade, I'm not overly impressed by Nick Ritchie.

The real asset was Turris. I don't even mind trading him either. The issue is that he is cheap and we're a budget team. If we keep Duchene and he does well, I'll be happy with it. Seeing Turris re-sign in Nashville for the exact contract I thought was fair is annoying. Just like Silfverberg, he is a quality player on a fair contract and we're taking a big risk by acquiring Duchene.

I mean, it will all work out if we end up winning a cup, but if we end up as an also-ran, I'm not overly impressed.

 

[topshelf15]

Remember when people weren't pissed when we gave up Silfverberg, Noesen and a 1st for Ryan?

Works both ways.

I wasnt and still would make that deal,the contract is a little rich but we still recieved the best player there

 

[swiftwin]

Remember when people weren't pissed when we gave up Silfverberg, Noesen and a 1st for Ryan?

Works both ways.

I would 100% make that trade again. He was the best player for us in the playoffs last year. He was looking just as good this year again.

We can afford to make these trades because our drafting has been phenomenal. We keep finding gems later in rounds. Since 2009 Hoffman in the 5th, Stone in the 6th, Dzingel in the 7th. Heck, even the draft a few months ago is already looking amazing. Formenton in the 2nd almost made the team and Batherson picked in the 4th is leading the Q in scoring.

If we were stripping the cupboards for these trades, sure I'd understand people being upset. But this is not the case. We have very healthy prospect pool right now.

 

[Punchbowl]

I'm very optimistic about this trade, but with a couple small reservations.

As I mentioned a few months back (before we knew about the bleak Turris contract situation), I don't think Duchene is a premiere #1C (i.e. a top 15C) which has been the backbone of every cup winner since the lockout. Maybe Anaheim is an exception, but they had two #1 D on the team. Unless Chabot and Brown turn into Neidermayer and the equivalent of young Getzlaf, I'm not sure we can count on replicating the Anaheim model.

That being said, given that we risked losing Turris for nothing at the end of the season, something had to be done. That changes things.

We turned Bowers + 1st, + 3rd --> a better, slightly younger Turris signed to a 1 year extension with no increased salary (since we dumped Hammond).

That's pricy, but well worth it IF we can re-sign Duchene to a reasonable deal (e.g. ~7M per year).


I'm pretty excited to see how Duchene does in a system with much better support and coaching! Friday is so far away!

 

[swiftwin]

My problem is that I would have traded for Duchene without including Turris but since it is what it is the answer is probably no. However, it's quite possible Duchene makes the team better & that's what is most important with any deal. If the team gets better after the deal is made & supposedly Ottawa got the best player in the deal & they got the Hammond contract off their hands then I think they did fine with this deal. I assume PD will make another deal or two to try & recover a pick or two, I suspect Wideman should be the next to be dealt.

I don't think we had the cap space to keep both Turris and Duchene. No, not Melnyk budget space, but actual NHL cap space. We're sitting at $1.9m in cap space right now. Turris was getting paid $3.5m.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I guess I just think that success is so unlikely that I think Duchene will need to be here long-term for this trade to look good.

Obviously if this team can pick up a Cup win, or a couple of ECF appearances or whatever, than it will have paid off. I just don't think that's very likely.

I really, really hope Duchene is here long-term.

I very much doubt Duchene will re-sign here.

People kept saying how we wasted some of Karlsson's best years.

They got what they asked for.

I am SO pumped.

 

[RedWhiteBlackGold]

I very much doubt Duchene will re-sign here.

People kept saying how we wasted some of Karlsson's best years.

They got what they asked for.

I am SO pumped.

I actually think it's always been one of Turris/Brass/Duchene here beyond year 3, with White/Brown filling in the second slot by then. If they don't pan out well that's still a bridge yet unknown, but it keeps two top line centers here until we have a better look at it.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I don't think we had the cap space to keep both Turris and Duchene. No, not Melnyk budget space, but actual NHL cap space. We're sitting at $1.9m in cap space right now. Turris was getting paid $3.5m.

We might have had the cap space if we LTIR'ed MacArthur other than that we would not have had enough space

 

[Boud]

The only thing I don't like about this deal is that I feel like we could've easily avoided giving up so much because:

1) Nashville was willing to work out a deal with Turris, and Turris was willing to sign with Nashville. Ottawa could've easily played the conditional pick card and at least get a pick back in the deal. What we traded is not Kyle Turris, it is an extended Kyle Turris at very decent term and salary in today's NHL. Even if Turris and Ottawa couldn't reach an agreement, it is valuable for Dorion to know that Turris was willing to go forward with a deal and at the same time Dorion can always play the ''we're going to sign him ( to a 7 or 8 year deal) if we don't get what we want'' card.

2) By having Turris on the market, it affects Duchene's value. Duchene and Turris really aren't far from each other in terms of what they bring to a team. They are different players, but impact is similar. Ottawa willing to trade Turris takes a big player for Duchene away and we already know Sakic was not getting the offers he was looking for.

By making this happen, Colorado got a pretty good return. Even though the best part of the deal is Girard, they acquired him by leveraging Turris ( which is something we should've done IMO). Sakic is very smart for making this happen. In the process of this deal he basically had the 2 best C on the market instead of competing against Ottawa. All the teams that were in on Duchene probably turned and looked at Turris (22 scouts from 20 different teams at the Ottawa game the other day), and then Sakic had Turris in his hands without Duchene being on the market... That's a very smart move. Kinda like what Boston did with the Lucic and Jones trade.

 

[BigRig4]

Guys, go look at hockeydb and take a look at 1st round picks from the bottom 10-12 of the first round, and see how many are impact players. There's very, very few. We essentially traded away a ~20-25% chance a top 6 forward or top 4 D, and another prospect who's not even top 8ish in our farm and doesn't project a very high ceiling. Not to mention, our 1st is top 10 protected anyway. I really think we just gave up a bunch of guys who probably won't be NHLers (and if they do it'll be 4-5+ years down the road) for a coveted #1 center.

 

[Punchbowl]

Both our top 2 centres' contracts expire after next season, I should hope we making an effort to re-sign both of them (esp. given what we paid for them).

IF not, we're putting a ton of pressure on Brown to be ready to jump from the OHL in 2017-2018 to a first/second-line centre in a Boucher-run system by 2019-2020.

If Duchene is willing to stay, Dorion will almost certainly re-sign him imo.

 

[The Lewler]

Both our top 2 centres' contracts expire after next season, I should hope we making an effort to re-sign both of them (esp. given what we paid for them).

IF not, we're putting a ton of pressure on Brown to be ready to jump from the OHL in 2017-2018 to a first/second-line centre in a Boucher-run system by 2019-2020.

If Duchene is willing to stay, Dorion will almost certainly re-sign him imo.

I think looking at the roster the plan is to sign Duchene long term, then let Brown replace Brassard.

I'm sure we all have timelines we would prefer, but it sure seems like it's headed that way.

 

[trentmccleary]

No. It's possible we could have waited until closer to the deadline and gotten a 50 point winger for 16 months for Bowers, 1st & 3rd... while keeping Turris. The way we did it, we traded a 55 point center, Bowers, a 1st and 3rd for a 55 point center. I respect Dorion and hope to god he's right that this was an upgrade worth doing. However, at this moment; it just doesn't.

 

[Punchbowl]

I think looking at the roster the plan is to sign Duchene long term, then let Brown replace Brassard.

I'm sure we all have timelines we would prefer, but it sure seems like it's headed that way.

I was mainly speaking to the notion that "we won't sign Duchene," but I think an effort will be made to keep Brass as well. I don't think it's as much of a priority as Duchene, but I think we'll inquire.

Brassard is a "local guy" (management loves those locals) and Dorion pursued him quite avidly, apparently. If he could be persuaded to stay for a home-town discount, we might be able to get him back for a little less than what he's earning now ($5.00M avg. per year).


I suppose the issue is term, though -- Brassard will likely want one last lucrative contract with job security before retirement, and his contract expires when he still should be able to demand that as a UFA. Kind of awkward timing given we hope to be giving a few guys well-earned raises in only a few years.

Hard to say.

 

[Ralph Malfredsson]

Turris had shown his clutch ability in the playoffs. Duchene remains an unknown commodity aside from a clutch SO goal vs Luongo. I would have stuck with the known commodity even for an overpayment.

 

[playasRus]

I was mainly speaking to the notion that "we won't sign Duchene," but I think an effort will be made to keep Brass as well. I don't think it's as much of a priority as Duchene, but I think we'll inquire.

Brassard is a "local guy" (management loves those locals) and Dorion pursued him quite avidly, apparently. If he could be persuaded to stay for a home-town discount, we might be able to get him back for a little less than what he's earning now ($5.00M avg. per year).


I suppose the issue is term, though -- Brassard will likely want one last lucrative contract with job security before retirement, and his contract expires when he still should be able to demand that as a UFA. Kind of awkward timing given we hope to be giving a few guys well-earned raises in only a few years.

Hard to say.

Unless we do something like 6/5/4/3 million, for 4.5 million average over 4 years, I don't see how Brassard's going to get paid at a lower cap hit. Take Hanzal for example, who's a lesser player than Brassard, went from a 3.1 mil to 4.75 million cap hit for 3 years at the age of 30. Unless we go mid-range term (4-5 years), Brassard is going to command a good 5.5million contract.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

The idea should be to build around Duchene as 1C long term and be prepared to move on from Brassard with some combo of Duchene, Brown, White, and Pageau down the middle (not particularly in that order).

Brassard trade was a short term move and I think when the Sens made it they justified it by looking at a high probability that Zibanejad would be forced into a 2 year deal via arbitration, so they were getting 3 years of a player regardless. Unless Brassard takes a hometown discount, I don't think we will be able to afford to extend him, and I think we have the organizational depth at C where it's plausible either Pageau could be a fringe 2C for us, or one of White or Brown could be sniffing that 2C spot.

Look at Frans Nielsen's contract as an example of what Brassard might attract on the open market.

 

[Duncstar]

I think Brass does take a discount. You forget that this is a chance for a cup with this team... players will take discounts on occasion.

Brass signs 4.5x3 is my bet, and we play him as a winger eventually.

Duchene wants to be here, if people think he wont sign you should really listen to the introduction of Duche as a Senator from yesterday. The org views him differently than Turris and wants 6-7 years I bet.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

No. It's possible we could have waited until closer to the deadline and gotten a 50 point winger for 16 months for Bowers, 1st & 3rd... while keeping Turris. The way we did it, we traded a 55 point center, Bowers, a 1st and 3rd for a 55 point center. I respect Dorion and hope to god he's right that this was an upgrade worth doing. However, at this moment; it just doesn't.

Based on what we know, it didn't look like Turris was coming back due to contract demands. So its a risk to keep him until the end of the season and him walking for nothing

 

[Giacomo]

You could have made that three way deal and probably got Tavares

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

No. It's possible we could have waited until closer to the deadline and gotten a 50 point winger for 16 months for Bowers, 1st & 3rd... while keeping Turris. The way we did it, we traded a 55 point center, Bowers, a 1st and 3rd for a 55 point center. I respect Dorion and hope to god he's right that this was an upgrade worth doing. However, at this moment; it just doesn't.

Its a risk either way... waiting and hoping for an available player is a risk... Losing Turris for nothing by hanging on to him is a risk, Sigining Turris for 7 years is a risk, makig the trade for Duchene is a risk... the thing about getting Duchene is you have him and can plot your future even if its only for 2 years

 

[trentmccleary]

Its a risk either way... waiting and hoping for an available player is a risk... Losing Turris for nothing by hanging on to him is a risk, Sigining Turris for 7 years is a risk, makig the trade for Duchene is a risk... the thing about getting Duchene is you have him and can plot your future even if its only for 2 years

The risk now is that we gave up a lot more than Turris, will probably sign him for more than Turris and there's a good possibility that he continues to essentially be another "Turris"... just one that we have invested a heck of a lot more into.

I would love to be wrong. I'd love it if he became a star. But right now, there's precious little evidence to believe that will happen.

 

[Hale The Villain]

It's not really accurate to compare the Ryan trade as Bobby for Silf, Noesen and Ritchie.

Sens only ended up selecting 10th in 2014 because Murray traded for Hemsky at the deadline, even though we didn't have a shot at the playoffs at that point. Wasn't a trade we would have (or should have) made if we were at the bottom of the league and still had our 1st. When the trade was made, the Sens were set to select 8th - right where the Leafs selected Nylander, and one spot above where the Jets selected Ehlers. Hemsky was close to a PPG for us in the 20 games he played for us, and certainly helped us move a couple spots up the standings by helping re-invigorate the top line.

Silfverberg, Noesen, Ritchie + 3.5M in cap space for Ryan looks bad, but Silfverberg, Noesen, Nylander/Ehlers + 3.5M in cap space for Ryan looks even worse, and that's what the trade might have ended up costing us.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

You could have made that three way deal and probably got Tavares

If we added chabot/ceci. Brown/white. That's the package it would have taken and a price I don't think Sens were willing to pay paisan.

Turris chabot white 1st 2nd.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

You could have made that three way deal and probably got Tavares

When the nest piece coming the otherway is very likely Girard... I don't think so or are you saying only the Sens side of the trade going to NYI... Still not enough for JT.. they would need at least 1 prize piece added