Post-Game Talk: World Junior Championships 2020 in the Czech Republic: Canada Wins 2020 Gold

[Shaman464]

Couple of things, I understand and provided all the stats from last year, with context. Projecting a player like Veleno to be between 40-50 points isn’t outrageous. Based on the minimum requirements, he can easily achieve 2nd line center status.

Smaller point, Veleno has played about 30 games of professional hockey, if you’re going to make your assessment based on juniors hockey (where he was among the best players in the league in his final year) and 30 AHL games, I’m just going to drop this conversation here. I know you are very confident in your opinions, and considering we seem to view things on opposite sides here, we won’t really meet anywhere in the middle.

For me it comes down to I am sure on the current Wings peak Veleno would be a great 2nd line center. But looking at the teams that win cups, he seems much more suited towards a third line role. That's my basic point.

 

[Shaman464]

right, I edited that he was 2nd. It doesn’t change my point at all.

It does when you put into context of his games played in the Q to date (1 more year than similar D+1s) and the insane amount of points Drummondville scored last season (20 goals more than the next closest team, and nearly 70 more than the average team).

 

[ArmChairGM89]

It does when you put into context of his games played in the Q to date (1 more year than similar D+1s) and the insane amount of points Drummondville scored last season (20 goals more than the next closest team, and nearly 70 more than the average team).

when you have the second highest point producer per game in the league you’re going to have a lot more goals than other teams. Also, he out scored all other D+1’s maybe having 1 more year effected that to a point but it surely doesn’t account for him outscoring nearly every player in the league. Including many guys older than him.

We aren’t that far off on projection, maybe ten points. I just hate when people discount his stats last season.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

2011 was a very long time ago. Last year 51 centers scored more than 50 points. 60 scored more than 45 points. But, that's not the whole story. Good teams don't just put the #60 center on their 2nd line and call it good. If Veleno does peak where I think he will and is the 2nd line center in Detroit that would signal a severe lack of center depth on the team. And would likely mean they aren't contending. Sure they could put him above his ability and buoy his stats that way, but, other than one good season in the CHL, there has been very little evidence that Veleno has the ability to center a top 6 line.

As someone else mentioned, you can't extrapolate a career projection based off ~30gp in the AHL, at least not accurately. Also, JV scored 266pts/230gp in the Q. I know the Q to be a higher scoring league, but not quite as much as it used to be, according to the experts. Either way those are good if not great #'s all things considered. That's 94.83pt. pace/82gp, what I'd consider very solid. By comparison, AL is 255pts/153gp, 1.6666666pts/gp, or 136pts/82gp. If AL is considered a sure-fire 1LW, "Big Patrick Kane" type, then JV based on Q production should be a RNH type production 2C, 50-55pt+. I set a 2C bar at 50pts.

 

[Henkka]

when you have the second highest point producer per game in the league you’re going to have a lot more goals than other teams. Also, he out scored all other D+1’s maybe having 1 more year effected that to a point but it surely doesn’t account for him outscoring nearly every player in the league. Including many guys older than him.

We aren’t that far off on projection, maybe ten points. I just hate when people discount his stats last season.

Funny fact is how he scored more SH (7) goals than PP goals (6).

At least not easy cherry-picking one-trick-pony.

 

[Shaman464]

As someone else mentioned, you can't extrapolate a career projection based off ~30gp in the AHL, at least not accurately. Also, JV scored 266pts/230gp in the Q. I know the Q to be a higher scoring league, but not quite as much as it used to be, according to the experts. Either way those are good if not great #'s all things considered. That's 94.83pt. pace/82gp, what I'd consider very solid. By comparison, AL is 255pts/153gp, 1.6666666pts/gp, or 136pts/82gp. If AL is considered a sure-fire 1LW, "Big Patrick Kane" type, then JV based on Q production should be a RNH type production 2C, 50-55pt+. I set a 2C bar at 50pts.

I would be careful trying to extrapolate that much from his Q production. Other than his last year his production was lackluster. RNH on the other hand produced that way before his draft year and in a much less offensive league. His production this year and next year in the AHL will be much more telling as to what his real trajectory is.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I would be careful trying to extrapolate that much from his Q production. Other than his last year his production was lackluster. RNH on the other hand produced that way before his draft year and in a much less offensive league. His production this year and next year in the AHL will be much more telling as to what his real trajectory is.

1. Actually, they're almost equal production.
JV scored 266pts/230gp in the Q= 94.83pt. pace/82gp
RNH scored 177pts/141gp in the Q= 99.44pt. pace/82gp


2. "Other than his last year his production was lackluster. RNH on the other hand produced that way before his draft year and in a much less offensive league."

Actually...they both had monster last yr in the Q. What you're not considering is JV's p/gp in the 2nd-4th yrs.

JV:

RNH:

 

[Shaman464]

1. Actually, they're almost equal production.
JV scored 266pts/230gp in the Q= 94.83pt. pace/82gp
RNH scored 177pts/141gp in the Q= 99.44pt. pace/82gp


2. "Other than his last year his production was lackluster. RNH on the other hand produced that way before his draft year and in a much less offensive league."

Actually...they both had monster last yr in the Q. What you're not considering is JV's p/gp in the 2nd-4th yrs.

JV:
View attachment 304035

RNH:
View attachment 304031

Except RNH wasn't in the Q and that was his draft year and third year in the WHL not his fifth year in the Q. The fact you can't even wrap your mind around the fact he was in the WHL not the Q and played significantly less games to get to that production should be disqualifying.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Except RNH wasn't in the Q and that was his draft year and third year in the WHL not his fifth year in the Q. The fact you can't even wrap your mind around the fact he was in the WHL not the Q and played significantly less games to get to that production should be disqualifying.

Fair enough, but I still see JV as a 2C/50pt+ JV flanked by any combo of (Zadina/Fabbri/AL?/Bert/Mantha), assuming Hronek/Seider/DDK/ UFA? Top4/Nemeth

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Ramblngs: Laviolette fired; Shestorkin called up; Crosby return?; Kovy’s first game; World Juniors – January 7 | DobberHockey – Fantasy NHL Projections and Analysis

Dobber on Moritz @ WJC: paraphrasing (Moritz was the best D in the tourney)

"Moritz Seider is definitely as advertised. He may take some time to grow into his skills and maybe the skating needs some work, but it’s obvious what the Red Wings saw in him when they jumped on him so high. It may have been the best team that Germany has offered the WJC’s in my lifetime, but a lot of that has to be attributed to their defenceman who was regularly playing 24, 25 or more minutes. I said I wanted to see him control the play and that he most certainly did. He knew when to get the puck up to his talented forwards and when he needed to do it himself. It’s not that he was playing 25 minutes a game because he was playing for Germany; it’s hard seeing any defenceman in this tournament superseding him on the depth chart, regardless of nation. He looks like a special talent. "

 

[Shaman464]

Ramblngs: Laviolette fired; Shestorkin called up; Crosby return?; Kovy’s first game; World Juniors – January 7 | DobberHockey – Fantasy NHL Projections and Analysis

Dobber on Moritz @ WJC: paraphrasing (Moritz was the best D in the tourney)

"Moritz Seider is definitely as advertised. He may take some time to grow into his skills and maybe the skating needs some work, but it’s obvious what the Red Wings saw in him when they jumped on him so high. It may have been the best team that Germany has offered the WJC’s in my lifetime, but a lot of that has to be attributed to their defenceman who was regularly playing 24, 25 or more minutes. I said I wanted to see him control the play and that he most certainly did. He knew when to get the puck up to his talented forwards and when he needed to do it himself. It’s not that he was playing 25 minutes a game because he was playing for Germany; it’s hard seeing any defenceman in this tournament superseding him on the depth chart, regardless of nation. He looks like a special talent. "

This is something we can agree on. Seider might be the steal of the draft. He looks great in the AHL and looked amazing at the WJC. He might be considered the a top 3 talent and best defender from the 2019 draft if he continues the way he is.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

I’d take Seider over byram in a redraft. I was very against the pick at the time. Kids legit stud.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Except RNH wasn't in the Q and that was his draft year and third year in the WHL not his fifth year in the Q. The fact you can't even wrap your mind around the fact he was in the WHL not the Q and played significantly less games to get to that production should be disqualifying.

You also should take into account the fact that he was in the Q a year earlier than anyone in the history of the league. His poor rookie stats (and those extra games played) seem to be something you really hold against him. But he was the youngest player In the Q EVER if I’m not mistaken. You could really see his development take a step forward when he got traded from saint johns. His play just catapulted from there.

 

[SirloinUB]

Scott Wheeler had Seider on his all snub team ie. second all star team

Seider was Seider. He was patient with the puck, he was always in position without it, he made smart choices on the power play and he gapped extremely well. When he was on the ice, Germany never looked out of place in one of the tournament’s toughest groups in recent memory. He was tasked with shutting down the best players in the tournament and creating offence. If he did neither, Germany was going to get exposed. He did both, and they excelled. I’m confident (and by confident I mean almost certain) if they were in Group A instead of Group B that Germany wouldn’t have played for relegation. Slovakia would have. His cross-ice vision has improved, too, which gives him an added playmaking ability.
Germany head coach Tobias Abstreiter acknowledged Seider was the deciding factor in Germany’s success.
“He had 27 minutes average ice time, so it was a big, big factor,” Abstreiter said. “He took this team on his back.”
Technically, Seider is eligible to return to Edmonton and Red Deer for the 2021 world juniors. That’s anybody’s guess, though, as his trajectory might be headed toward the NHL.
“What’s next year? I have no idea, I have no clue. It would be a nice thing to play another tournament in Edmonton. But who knows,” he said, before insisting he wasn’t tired from the big role he’d been asked to play this year.
“I had a lot of minutes in Grand Rapids, too. I was above 20. So, I was pretty comfortable, the legs are fine. That’s all you want when you play against the top nations, getting ice time and showing yourself (to) the world. It was nice to see my family. It was a long time without them so that gave me a huge push.”

Also a comment on Veleno from Canada's head scout Brad McEwen:

“The maturity in his game has leapt out. He’s been playing in all situations so he’s going to come back a real good player. He has been in our program so many times and has been a tremendous leader and mentor for our group.
“His game has been fine. He’s a complete guy, he plays all the zones, you talk about a 200-foot player, that’s what he is. He has rounded that side of the game out more. In Quebec last year he was so important to his team offensively. This year he has rounded some things off.”

 

[Henkka]

Seider could just be a freak of nature what comes to his ice-time.

Just as a reminder, he had the second best rating at Aerobic Fitness VO2max test at 2019 draft combine.

2019 NHL Combine results: Top 10 at each drill - Sportsnet.ca

Aerobic fitness is assessed by measuring the amount of oxygen utilized (VO2 max) during maximal exercise employing volume determination and analysis of expired air. In addition, heart rate is monitored continuously, providing data for heartrate-based training. This test will be performed on a professional grade spin bike (Watt Bike) cycle ergometer using a Cortex Metalyzer VO2 cart.

He could be just that "lidström" style of guy that who never gets exhausted in regular situations, and you can push the ice-time over 30 minutes in critical games.


Another interesting note about his physical attributes was that 202cm wingspan, which is 10 centimeters more than his height 192cm. This is usually great factor for an athlete in any sports using hands. Have a bigger wingspan than your height. Pavel Datsyuk was that kind of and it made his unbelieveable large puck control area able for him. Short with "monkey" hands.

What comes to Seider, he will be extremely hard to pass by for forwards thanks to long arms +huge wingspan + long stick together. And when controlling the puck, he can evade opposite forechekers easily and gets the zone exit easier than probably any other defenceman from our current prospect core.

 

[newfy]

I would be careful trying to extrapolate that much from his Q production. Other than his last year his production was lackluster. RNH on the other hand produced that way before his draft year and in a much less offensive league. His production this year and next year in the AHL will be much more telling as to what his real trajectory is.

His production was never lack lustre. For a 16 year old to go almost a point per game is very solid. Its not McDavid or Tavares but its very solid production. To be in your draft year and lead both teams you play on, including one (it might have actually been the highest actually) of the highest scoring teams in the league in points per game is very good production in your draft year. Then in his draft plus one year he arguably had the best season in his league. He didnt completely dominate offensively until his draft+1 season but he was still a very productive player, especially when you consider his game isnt all about putting up points.

Also the myth that the Q is higher scoring needs to die. Its ridiculously not true anymore and hasnt been for a while. Fits a convenient narrative here but doesnt make it true. His production in the AHL will obviously also worth paying attention to but it is fair to consider his whole body of work and not just the ahl because youve made up a story about his offense being lack lustre

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Can't wait for JV, Mo, McIsaac & Berggren to arrive.

 

[Christien]

Can't wait for JV, Mo, McIsaac & Berggren to arrive.
View attachment 304343

Yup exciting times. I think Berggren is going to be a good one. I think his floor is a 3rd line winger in the NHL.

 

[lomekian]

That's not the type of output you'd expect from a guy good for 0.75 ppg in the NHL. He's averaging 0.4 ppg now. Less than Seider. He's 60th in rookie ppg right now. That's not impressive scoring. Zadina's 0.60 ppg last season (with him being a year younger) caused people to hit the panic button.

But also looking at his past, Veleno is a guy who takes a little time to adjust to the next level, and then is dependent on linemate chemistry. He's never been great at scoring without help, but does seem to generally make things easier for his linemates. He's not really a skilled player looking at NHL level, but he does look like a sort of budget Patrice Bergeron, and while unlikely to ever reach that level, can be very productive if paired with skilled/scoring wingers.

That said I see him as 3rd line center when Detroit are good again, but one who can do a job at #2 c when needed. A bit like peak Fil but less shot shy. If Ras can get and stay fit, the wings will have some interesting decisions at center in the next 2-3 years, particularly if they can get hold of a legit #1 guy via draft or FA.

 

[Henkka]

Lafreniere - Veleno - Mantha
Bertuzzi - Larkin - Zadina
Fabbri - Rasmussen - Berggren
Smith - Ehn - Svechnikov
(Grewe, Turgeon, Pearson, Söderblom)

DeKeyser - Seider
McIsaac(Nemeth) - Hronek
Cholowski - Lindström
(Nemeth)

 

[odin1981]

Who do you like at 4th, since the odds are higher Wings pick 4th than top 3.

Byfield

 

[TCNorthstars]

Byfield

Who do you think will be drafted 2 and 3?

 

[Hen Kolland]

Who do you think will be drafted 2 and 3?

2. Quinton Bufeld
3. Quinton Bifold

Coincidentally leaving us with Quinton Byfield.

 

[TCNorthstars]

2. Quinton Bufeld
3. Quinton Bifold

Coincidentally leaving us with Quinton Byfield.

What can we trade to move up to #3 to get Bifold? He's money!

 

[odin1981]

Who do you think will be drafted 2 and 3?

Depends I think Byfield will drop a bit from poor wjc performance but I don't see him falling out of 4-5th. Best on best environment and fell short. Granted very young for draft year.

I believe Stutz and Raymond will contend for two and three personally now. Could be wrong but who knows?

I see very limited junior hockey now that the Whalers relocated. But I'm not good at judging junior players. I'm much better at age 20+ in the Ahl.