With the 1st overall pick... (Part 2)

[flomarilius]

Is anyone going to be at Bokamper's on Friday? Would be nice to share thoughts collectively and not over a laptop!

 

[Thankstoo]

THIS mentality right here is the problem. This isn't the NBA where bringing in a player or two will drastically change the teams future. Most teams in the NHL are built through the draft. Bill Torrey preached this and the Islanders won 4 straight cups. Trading quality for quantity almost never works. It's a flawed mindset from the get-go

Screw mortgaging the future to win now. We're not that close. I want a team with a strong core, built from the draft.

I see "EXPECTATIONS" that are being floated as a major issue. This team is not close, at least one more draft away from setting any realistic expectations. The depth that is often mentioned is largely over-hyped. Other than Barkov & Bjugstad I have a real concern over the development & trajectory of many younger players. I have seen flashes from Kulikov but the jury is out on Gudbranson & Huberdeau.

Huberdeau concerns me the most. I have concerns his game will not translate to the next level. He has magical puck skills but his skating concerns me for his skill set, not to mention that he has still has not developed more physically.

I know the term 'rebuild' has been going on along time, but in 10 years there may have been no better time to retool' and 'rebuild' then through the 2013,2014 & 2015 drafts. Free agents will not come here until they see the core developing and like I said were probably at least a year away from that.

 

[Crossbar]

Evander Kane sucks though. There's a reason the fans in Winnipeg want him dealt, post haste.

The reason I mentioned quality for quantity is because Evander Kane is the textbook definition of mediocre and someone who will never reach his full potential. If you trade the #1 overall pick, it better be for a leader. Evander Kane is not that player. In fact, none of the players mentioned in these threads are.

So who would you personally say is worth trading the #1 overall pick?

 

[Ekblad]

I really dont want tallon to trade down. Just pick the BPA at number 1 and be happy. Short cuts rarely work out in the long run

 

[I am not exposed]

I really dont want tallon to trade down. Just pick the BPA at number 1 and be happy. Short cuts rarely work out in the long run

I concur, and I think most people around these parts do. However, Tallon is under pressure to deliver this season. And a 1st overall pick in this draft will not have enough quality to make a huge change.

 

[Madhatter73]

I'll be happy if...

I'll be happy as long as we don't draft defense with a top 10 pick.

Defense takes 3+ years to develop (~300 games) and reach their potential much less often then top 10 forwards do.

I would rather we acquire our D via FA/trade than sit and wait 3 years to see if maybe our drafted D-man will develop into what we hope he can be.

Quality defensive players also often drop quickly in the draft (see Seth Jones) because elite forwards can usually contribute much quicker (0-2 years) and are much harder to acquire via FA/trade.

I would rather our high pick go to forward and aim to add our defensive prospects via later pick(s). It's more likely to work in our favor.

 

[South Florida Canuck]

I concur, and I think most people around these parts do. However, Tallon is under pressure to deliver this season. And a 1st overall pick in this draft will not have enough quality to make a huge change.

But neither will the quantity you get back. How many extra wins will one lesser draft pick and one above average player give you? Going from the 2nd worst team in the league to the 6th worst team in the league isn't exactly my definition of "winning now" Plus, you lose out on a potential blue chip prospect in Aaron Ekblad.

 

[I am not exposed]

But neither will the quantity you get back. How many extra wins will one lesser draft pick and one above average player give you? Going from the 2nd worst team in the league to the 6th worst team in the league isn't exactly my definition of "winning now" Plus, you lose out on a potential blue chip prospect in Aaron Ekblad.

I overall agree, and hence why I think we should draft Ekblad. He just won't have much of an impact next season. Nor will any of the forwards in this draft. If Tallon can pick an established NHL D/top 6 forward, whilst still retaining a top 8 pick this draft, then he will probably pull the trigger.

 

[Number 17]

I really dont want tallon to trade down. Just pick the BPA at number 1 and be happy. Short cuts rarely work out in the long run

But what if Tallon thinks that Nylander or Ehlers is BPA and wants to trade down because he knows that they are available later.

 

[Ekblad]

But what if Tallon thinks that Nylander or Ehlers is BPA and wants to trade down because he knows that they are available later.

If tallon believes either of those two are the best players available, I think Viola should give him an airplane ticket out of SoFla. Tallon does not know better than all the experts and scouts who spend months and months each year scouting these playersfor a living, that decided that the sams, ekblad, dal colle and draisatl should be the top 5 picks.

Sure they're both very talented, but when it comes to players ranked in the top 10-15 of each draft, all of the prospects are put under the microscope by experts and scouts to make sure they have a grasp on how good they are/will be. There are reasons to why those players go between 6-12 in most mock drafts, and I put more trust in that than tallon's possible crushes.

 

[RogerRoger]

I'll be happy as long as we don't draft defense with a top 10 pick.

Defense takes 3+ years to develop (~300 games) and reach their potential much less often then top 10 forwards do.

A little (probably flawed) analysis of imo who "reached" their potential, or at least play up to where he was picked. To me, a guy like Jordan Staal, picked second overall and averaging less than 40 points has not reached his potential. I didn't count dman that were not top 3 on their team.

2010: 0/2 dman, 5/8 forwards.
2009: 3/3 dman, 4/7 forwards.
2008: 2/4 dman, 1/6 forwards.
2007: 2/3 dman, 4/7 forwards.
2006: 1/1 dman, 4/9 forwards.
2005: 1/2 dman (I didn't count Bourdon, since he died), 2/6 forwards, 1/1 Goalie.

So dman were a hit on 60% of the picks and forwards were a hit on 47%. So I wouldn,t say that picking a dman lead to less success than a forward.

 

[Juggernaut27]

I think the argument will be that a D-Man picked top-10 needs to be a top-pairing guy on a good team sort of player. Not just a 3rd on the depth-chart kinda guy.

 

[RogerRoger]

I think the argument will be that a D-Man picked top-10 needs to be a top-pairing guy on a good team sort of player. Not just a 3rd on the depth-chart kinda guy.

Alright, then take out one dman. I won't take away guy for being on bad teams though, otherwise I'll also have to do it for forwards and it would be silly to take away Bobby Ryan or Kadri because they are not on the top line and/or on a good team.

 

[South Florida Canuck]

If tallon believes either of those two are the best players available, I think Viola should give him an airplane ticket out of SoFla. Tallon does not know better than all the experts and scouts who spend months and months each year scouting these playersfor a living, that decided that the sams, ekblad, dal colle and draisatl should be the top 5 picks.

Sure they're both very talented, but when it comes to players ranked in the top 10-15 of each draft, all of the prospects are put under the microscope by experts and scouts to make sure they have a grasp on how good they are/will be. There are reasons to why those players go between 6-12 in most mock drafts, and I put more trust in that than tallon's possible crushes.

Best post of the week!!

 

[RCDeltaFixer]

I think we walk away from the draft MUCH better off with:
Ehlers/Nylander, a proven NHL player, and a prospect if we trade down
than if we don't trade and get:
Ekblad.

 

[Dread Clawz]

I think we walk away from the draft MUCH better off with:
Ehlers/Nylander, a proven NHL player, and a prospect if we trade down
than if we don't trade and get:
Ekblad.

MUCH better? Come on.

 

[EnforceTheLaus]

@DarrenDreger: Action should heat up tomorrow. If the offers on the 1st pick overall don't improve, Florida intends on holding on to it. #stillearly #TSN

Considering Dreger is pretty much a Leafs PR guy, I'm growing more and more confident Tallon takes the pick.

 

[batting1k]

Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 8m
Action should heat up tomorrow. If the offers on the 1st pick overall don't improve, Florida intends on holding on to it. #stillearly #TSN

Edit: too late lol

 

[FrolikFan67]

i have a question: if we were to draft ekblad, would anyone be in favor of trading gudbranson for another top-10 pick (ehlers/nylander), or traded for a winger in general? i don't think i would, but just thinking of ekblad, an 18yr old who will take a couple years before he really starts to find his footing in the league + kulikov who has some consistency issues (although i think he'll be fine with a proper line mate and a better all around team) + gudbranson who is still just 22 and still rough on the defensive side of things. having that make up half our D would be slightly worrisome. in the short term at least.
ekblad would start on the 3rd obviously, hopefully sign someone like mitchell to pair with him. gudbranson would be paired with kulikov, which in a couple years could make a great combo but right now is a little scary. they're both young, id prefer a vet with either but that wouldnt be the case most likely with ekblad in the lineup.

 

[batting1k]

i have a question: if we were to draft ekblad, would anyone be in favor of trading gudbranson for another top-10 pick (ehlers/nylander), or traded for a winger in general? i don't think i would, but just thinking of ekblad, an 18yr old who will take a couple years before he really starts to find his footing in the league + kulikov who has some consistency issues (although i think he'll be fine with a proper line mate and a better all around team) + gudbranson who is still just 22 and still rough on the defensive side of things. having that make up half our D would be slightly worrisome. in the short term at least.
ekblad would start on the 3rd obviously, hopefully sign someone like mitchell to pair with him. gudbranson would be paired with kulikov, which in a couple years could make a great combo but right now is a little scary. they're both young, id prefer a vet with either but that wouldnt be the case most likely with ekblad in the lineup.

Tallon has said several times that Guddy is going to be apart of our future and that he'll be the captain some day. Don't see us trading him.

 

[Madhatter73]

A little (probably flawed) analysis of imo who "reached" their potential, or at least play up to where he was picked. To me, a guy like Jordan Staal, picked second overall and averaging less than 40 points has not reached his potential. I didn't count dman that were not top 3 on their team.

2010: 0/2 dman, 5/8 forwards.
2009: 3/3 dman, 4/7 forwards.
2008: 2/4 dman, 1/6 forwards.
2007: 2/3 dman, 4/7 forwards.
2006: 1/1 dman, 4/9 forwards.
2005: 1/2 dman (I didn't count Bourdon, since he died), 2/6 forwards, 1/1 Goalie.

So dman were a hit on 60% of the picks and forwards were a hit on 47%. So I wouldn,t say that picking a dman lead to less success than a forward.

There is no doubt that, if given 3 years, a defenseman can evolve. With that sample size of 60 players, the evolution potential is about even. It's about how long it takes to help the team.

I do not believe we should wait around 3 years for the chance that a guy we draft with a top pick will turn into an impact player. A high pick forward has a greater chance of making an impact sooner.

Last year most people pegged Seth Jones as clearly #1 overall, yet Colorado took McKinnon and turned around significantly. Jones wouldn't have helped us win last year more than Barkov. In fact, he ran a -23 last year with Nashville. Over 20 points worse than any of the other defensemen on the team. Jones isn't a bust, he just needs his 300+ games.

This team cannot survive another 3 years of waiting, we need improvement in 1-2 years. The only way we achieve that goal is to roll the dice on a forward (that will likely show promise/bust in 1-2 years) and gain a couple proven defensemen via other means. Even overpaying a bit if we have to.

 

[I am not exposed]

i have a question: if we were to draft ekblad, would anyone be in favor of trading gudbranson for another top-10 pick (ehlers/nylander), or traded for a winger in general? i don't think i would, but just thinking of ekblad, an 18yr old who will take a couple years before he really starts to find his footing in the league + kulikov who has some consistency issues (although i think he'll be fine with a proper line mate and a better all around team) + gudbranson who is still just 22 and still rough on the defensive side of things. having that make up half our D would be slightly worrisome. in the short term at least.
ekblad would start on the 3rd obviously, hopefully sign someone like mitchell to pair with him. gudbranson would be paired with kulikov, which in a couple years could make a great combo but right now is a little scary. they're both young, id prefer a vet with either but that wouldnt be the case most likely with ekblad in the lineup.

It would be a step backwards to trade Gudbranson for a draft pick. Unless it was someone like Connor McDavid!

 

[batting1k]

We're getting closer....

Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 1m
High-Tech draft board awaits the players, teams and fans in Philadelphia. #TSN pic.twitter.com/SFrYnT7IYm

 

[Dr Beinfest]

Tallon has said several times that Guddy is going to be apart of our future and that he'll be the captain some day. Don't see us trading him.

Talking about how a player can be a captain is different from saying he will be the captain.

Bad players don't become captain. There's a certain level of leadership by example that Gudbranson Gauls at. He's not exactly captain in waiting as you describe, although I would admit Tallon doesn't seem keen on trading him.

 

[batting1k]

Talking about how a player can be a captain is different from saying he will be the captain.

Bad players don't become captain. There's a certain level of leadership by example that Gudbranson Gauls at. He's not exactly captain in waiting as you describe, although I would admit Tallon doesn't seem keen on trading him.

So you're saying you have to be Crosby if you want to be a captain? Do you know who our captain is right now? Tallon has stated publicly on a few occassions that Gudbranson will be the captain of the team some day.