Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent IV: Live Free or Be Discontented

[Bluelines]

We would be in Year 2 of Bautistas 5 Year $150 million deal right now if we had given him what he felt he deserved.

I cant recall one batter who's looked so bad so quickly.

 

[Woodman19]

I cant recall one batter who's looked so bad so quickly.

In fairness, he looked like he was declining the year before.

 

[phillipmike]

Fangraphs depth chart is either acting screwing again or they have the Jays as the favorite for the 2nd wildcard spot due to projection updates.

Depth Charts » Projected Standings | FanGraphs Baseball

It was 88 for the Angels and 84 for the Jays after the Angels start to the off-season.
Then 86 for the Angels and 85 for the Jays.
Then 88 for the Angels and 85 for Jays.
Now it is 86 for the Jays and 84 for the Angels.

The difference is that they actually improved the numbers of the Jays projections before the expected wins were changing but the expected WAR of players werent. Donaldson, Smoak and Travis all saw increases and Jansen and Tulo saw small dips. The difference is on the pitching side; Stroman almost saw a full WAR increase, Estrada went from 1.1 to 1.7 and i believe Sanchez and Happ got bumps too. On the pen side Osuna saw a huge bump as did Tepera.

I know these numbers of heart because i was arguing with a guy in another forum about why the Jays are in a good position to try to compete one more year and he was against it; the Jays projected pitching WAR has gone from 13.2 to 13.7 to 14.1 and now at 16.3 WAR. Its easy to say that it might be because of Garica but the only bump the Jays saw was from 13.7 to 14.1 WAR.

Seems like there was an update in their system as they had Greg Holland as a 0.1 WAR player and he is now a 1.1 WAR player.

 

[BlueForever75]

Donaldson will not get anything more then what JD Martinez just signed for as a Boras agent. If he thinks otherwise he will come out a loser in all of this just as EE did with his contract.

Donaldson is a great player do not get me wrong, but he is also 32 years old and will be closer to 33 when his free agency season will be happening. Anything more then what he is making right now on a 3-4 year deal he should be jumping on it. Have an out put in after year 2 if he wants to test FA water again but other then that he is risking a lot if he thinks he will make anything more.

So I foresee a contract mid season for 4 years - 100 million broken down as such 30, 30, opt out(player), 22 , 18.

This is more then fair. If not trade him off.

 

[Discoverer]

I know these numbers of heart because i was arguing with a guy in another forum about why the Jays are in a good position to try to compete one more year and he was against it; the Jays projected pitching WAR has gone from 13.2 to 13.7 to 14.1 and now at 16.3 WAR. Its easy to say that it might be because of Garica but the only bump the Jays saw was from 13.7 to 14.1 WAR.

Is it possible that they just recently added ZiPS into the projections? We know Steamer is low on the Jays pitching, so adding ZiPS in should be expected to add another win or two.

 

[Discoverer]

Donaldson will not get anything more then what JD Martinez just signed for as a Boras agent. If he thinks otherwise he will come out a loser in all of this just as EE did with his contract.

Donaldson is a great player do not get me wrong, but he is also 32 years old and will be closer to 33 when his free agency season will be happening. Anything more then what he is making right now on a 3-4 year deal he should be jumping on it. Have an out put in after year 2 if he wants to test FA water again but other then that he is risking a lot if he thinks he will make anything more.

So I foresee a contract mid season for 4 years - 100 million broken down as such 30, 30, opt out(player), 22 , 18.

This is more then fair. If not trade him off.

Donaldson will be three years older than Martinez when he reaches free agency, but he's also a vastly superior player.

To wit: Josh Donaldson just has the worst season of his career, missed 49 games, and tied Martinez's career-best 5.0 fWAR.

 

[Brown Dog]

Toronto would have gotten more for Donaldson this past winter than what they'd get at the trade deadline. Let's be honest - Shapiro and Atkins have no interest in re-signing Donaldson. They can say all they want about how they want Donaldson to remain a Blue Jay, but they know the going cost and they aren't going to pay that. They either want the blue chip prospects they'll get in a trade or the draft pick compensation that they'll get for letting Donaldson walk.

The way they went about the off-season, I really wish they had traded Donaldson (assuming the prospoect return was as good as you would hope).

Very unlikely Donaldson is here beyond this year and very unlikely we are able to contend this year. So why are we holding him exactly? Especially when you would expect the prospects returned to ripen in time to coincide with the emergence of Vlad/Bo. Feels like an attempt to pander to the fan base.

 

[BlueForever75]

Donaldson will be three years older than Martinez when he reaches free agency, but he's also a vastly superior player.

To wit: Josh Donaldson just has the worst season of his career, missed 49 games, and tied Martinez's career-best 5.0 fWAR.

Still don't think that he will get paid what he or his agent thinks. Remember there will younger players available (Harper, Machado, Puig, Dozier) that will get paid and that is only position players. Add in the pitchers available and there will be even less money to go around. I can see those players being paid prior to Donaldson for what he wants. All being 31 and younger.

Sorry I just don't see it.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I have no issue with conducting the Donaldson situation the same way the Mets conducted the Cespedes situation.

Play out the year, test free agency, give me a call when you're ready, and give me a chance to match your best offer (which is what should have happened with Edwin). If we can find a reasonable deal (i.e. 3 years @ $26MM aav + MO), then we love you and come on back. If someone gives a 33 year old 3B significant term, then you wish him the best and send him on his way.

After what we just saw this offseason, I'm cool with rolling the dice from a management perspective. If I was his agent, I would be actively negotiating throughout the first few months of the season (if he indeed wants to remain in Toronto) trying to get a guaranteed fourth year, and trading aav to do so.

 

[zeke]

Martinez is basically a more inconsistent, more injured version of EE.

 

[phillipmike]

Is it possible that they just recently added ZiPS into the projections? We know Steamer is low on the Jays pitching, so adding ZiPS in should be expected to add another win or two.

Quite possible, before each individual player page didnt have a ZiPS projection but now they do. So it looks like ZiPS is the direct factor the change. Good catch.

 

[Bluelines]

Fangraphs depth chart is either acting screwing again or they have the Jays as the favorite for the 2nd wildcard spot due to projection updates.

Depth Charts » Projected Standings | FanGraphs Baseball

It was 88 for the Angels and 84 for the Jays after the Angels start to the off-season.
Then 86 for the Angels and 85 for the Jays.
Then 88 for the Angels and 85 for Jays.
Now it is 86 for the Jays and 84 for the Angels.

The difference is that they actually improved the numbers of the Jays projections before the expected wins were changing but the expected WAR of players werent. Donaldson, Smoak and Travis all saw increases and Jansen and Tulo saw small dips. The difference is on the pitching side; Stroman almost saw a full WAR increase, Estrada went from 1.1 to 1.7 and i believe Sanchez and Happ got bumps too. On the pen side Osuna saw a huge bump as did Tepera.

I know these numbers of heart because i was arguing with a guy in another forum about why the Jays are in a good position to try to compete one more year and he was against it; the Jays projected pitching WAR has gone from 13.2 to 13.7 to 14.1 and now at 16.3 WAR. Its easy to say that it might be because of Garica but the only bump the Jays saw was from 13.7 to 14.1 WAR.

Seems like there was an update in their system as they had Greg Holland as a 0.1 WAR player and he is now a 1.1 WAR player.

Great post but do you think Travis will actually be healthy enough to make a difference? Do you think Estrada's struggles last year was a blip or is it an indication of what is to come (I've heard he was tipping his pitches)? Is Smoak going to be the 1st half Smoak or the 2nd half Smoak? Will TuLo's replacement (cause we know TuLo will be hurt for a good portion of the season) perform well enough to not hurt us? Is Martin going to have a bounce back season? Our closer kinda looked human at times, will he be the dominant player we know or the guy who blows a lot of saves?

We are pretty much the same team as the year before and I guess we expect to see team W/L gains just from our key players like Donaldson, Sanchez and Travis being healthy? I guess our season comes down to if we are healthy or not?

Not argumentative question - Did we add anyone who we can say yeah he is a good legit starter (pitching/position)?

Not sure we have enough talent/health to be an above .500 team.

 

[zeke]

yep, looks like fangraphs has officially folded in the zips into the projections.

they now have angels/jays projected within one war of each other, a good 5-6 ahead of the next best twins, but a good 7-9 behind the yanks/tribe/sox.

replace one of our offseason adds with a legit impact add, and we'd be projected as clear faves for the final playoff spot.

 

[Bluelines]

In fairness, he looked like he was declining the year before.

Was he? Maybe EE/JD in the lineup masked that for me. When you got one guy struggling and other guys picking up the load, its easier for batter to hide in the lineup.

 

[Nineteen67]

Donaldson will not get anything more then what JD Martinez just signed for as a Boras agent. If he thinks otherwise he will come out a loser in all of this just as EE did with his contract.

Donaldson is a great player do not get me wrong, but he is also 32 years old and will be closer to 33 when his free agency season will be happening. Anything more then what he is making right now on a 3-4 year deal he should be jumping on it. Have an out put in after year 2 if he wants to test FA water again but other then that he is risking a lot if he thinks he will make anything more.

So I foresee a contract mid season for 4 years - 100 million broken down as such 30, 30, opt out(player), 22 , 18.

This is more then fair. If not trade him off.

Right now, Donaldson is a top 15 player in MLB. If he continues that this year he’ll get paid. Where, is the question.

I suspect the Jays will hover around the 500 mark and contend for the 2nd WC most of the season.

 

[Bluelines]

yep, looks like fangraphs has officially folded in the zips into the projections.

they now have angels/jays projected within one war of each other, a good 5-6 ahead of the next best twins, but a good 7-9 behind the yanks/tribe/sox.

replace one of our offseason adds with a legit impact add, and we'd be projected as clear faves for the final playoff spot.

You thinking we have a legit chance at a wild card?

 

[zeke]

You thinking we have a legit chance at a wild card?

both the major projection systems think we do.

 

[Nineteen67]

You thinking we have a legit chance at a wild card?

If they can beat up on Baltimore and Tampa and tread water against the Yanks and Red Sox, sure they can.

 

[Woodman19]

We should be well positioned to add at the deadline if we need to.

 

[phillipmike]

Great post but do you think Travis will actually be healthy enough to make a difference? Do you think Estrada's struggles last year was a blip or is it an indication of what is to come (I've heard he was tipping his pitches)? Is Smoak going to be the 1st half Smoak or the 2nd half Smoak? Will TuLo's replacement (cause we know TuLo will be hurt for a good portion of the season) perform well enough to not hurt us? Is Martin going to have a bounce back season? Our closer kinda looked human at times, will he be the dominant player we know or the guy who blows a lot of saves?

We are pretty much the same team as the year before and I guess we expect to see team W/L gains just from our key players like Donaldson, Sanchez and Travis being healthy? I guess our season comes down to if we are healthy or not?

Not argumentative question - Did we add anyone who we can say yeah he is a good legit starter (pitching/position)?

Not sure we have enough talent/health to be an above .500 team.

Just got to play it out and see.

Me personally im not banking Travis playing a full season but we have great depth in Solarte, Diaz and Urena - maybe Gurriel too. Even with his struggles Estrada was a 2.6 WAR pitcher last year - there are theories that he had personal issues last season and if he is past that then he might be ok again - having Martin catching a full season should help (rather not having Salty, Montero, Ohlman or Lopez catching helps too).

Smoak - well he made adjustments and had a good start but then he battled knee and leg injuries;

Smoak struggled down the stretch, posting just a .638 OPS in September, partly because he was physically banged up. In particular, he dealt with some knee tendinitis but still played in a team-high 158 games. Over the winter, he worked on his hips, glutes and quads to take pressure off his knees in anticipation of the months ahead.

Blue Jays Notebook: Smoak ready to build on 2017 breakout - Sportsnet.ca

He also played the most baseball of his career on the offensive side and defensive side. He needs to adjust or perhaps have Morales/Pearce play a little more to keep him fresher. Smoak pulled a micro-Romero and had knee and leg injuries - told no one and played through it... he didnt help himself nor his stats.

I would say Diaz, Solarte and Urena are better than Goins and Barney. Plus the bar isnt that high as Tulo was only a 2.8 WAR player for us when healthy and he is projected for 2-2.2 WAR.

Martin really doesnt need to bounce back - he was already good last season as he was on pace for a 2.5 WAR season if he played 120-130 games. Still put up 1.8 WAR in 91 games. Martin needs health more than anything.

Major League Leaderboards » 2017 » Catchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Osuna was 3rd in WAR, 5th in SIERA, and 7th in K-BB%. Everything might look human in vacuum but in comparison he is one of the best relievers in baseball.

Major League Leaderboards » 2017 » Relievers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

The team is better and is built stronger with a better balance and depth. Jays had big injuries to Saunders and Stroman in 2015 then had the boost by the trades. In 2016 they were pretty much as healthy as a team could get - Travis and Bautista missed time but they still player 100+ games each. Only big loss was Colabello's suspension. In 2017 we had big injuries to Donaldson, Sanchez, Martin, Tulo, Travis, Liriano and Happ. We had more injuries in 2017 than we did in 2015 and 2016 combined. If the Jays had those type of injuries in 2015 and 2016 then we arent making the playoffs in those years. Its just that simple the Jays need health like any other team and if they do not have health then it will be tough. You do not have control over your team's injuries but a bulk of the injuries came at the beginning of the year all at the same time - if the injuries are spread out over the course of a season like a normal team then we can weather the storm a lot easier then what happened last season. Again sometimes it is great just to let things play out and play baseball to see what your team does before writing them off or awarding them the World Series like some did after the Dickey/Marlin deals.

 

[phillipmike]

both the major projection systems think we do.

Fangraphs and ??? What other projection system are you using. Im curious.

 

[zeke]

Fangraphs and ??? What other projection system are you using. Im curious.

Fangraphs uses Zips and Steamer projections.

 

[Bluelines]

both the major projection systems think we do.

OK thanks.

 

[zeke]

Fangraphs' Depth Charts Projections (they use both Zips and Steamer)


2B Travis: 445pa, 102wrc+, 2.7war650
3B Donaldson: 644pa, 141wrc+, 6.3war650
1B Smoak: 630pa, 116wrc+, 2.3war650
DH Morales: 560pa, 105wrc+, 0.7war650
LF Pearce: 455pa, 108wrc+, 1.4war650
RF Grichuk: 525pa, 103wrc+, 2.2war650
C Martin: 448pa, 100wrc+, 3.8war650
SS Tulo: 546pa, 97wrc+, 2.6war650
CF Pillar: 630pa, 89wrc+, 2.8war650

UT Solarte: 210pa, 104wrc+, 2.5war650
OF Granderson: 441pa, 107wrc+, 1.5war650
OF Carrera: 140pa, 84wrc+, 0.0war650
IF Diaz: 182pa, 91wrc+, 1.4war650
C Jansen: 160pa, 83wrc+, 2.0war650


SP Stroman: 32gs, 3.72era, 4.3war32
SP Happ: 29gs, 4.09era, 3.1war32
SP Sanchez: 23gs, 4.15era, 2.8war32
SP Estrada: 31gs, 4.68era, 1.9war32
SP Garcia: 21gs, 4.50era, 2.1war32
SP Biagini: 16gs, 4.55era*, 2.4war32* - numbers inflated by being mixed in with RP IP
SP Borucki: 6gs, 4.93era, 1.1war32

RP Osuna: 65.0ip, 3.10era, 1.7war65
RP Tepera: 65.0ip, 3.95era, 0.7war65
RP Loup: 55.0ip, 3.63era, 0.7war65
RP Barnes: 55.0ip, 4.31era, 0.4war65
RP Biagini: 30.0ip, 4.55era*, 0.0war65* - numbers deflated by being mixed in with SP IP
RP Ramirez: 45.0ip, 4.97era, -0.3war65
Everyone else replacement level

 

[Bluelines]

If they can beat up on Baltimore and Tampa and tread water against the Yanks and Red Sox, sure they can.

Some big "if's"