Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent IV: Live Free or Be Discontented

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Nineteen67

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Some big "if's"

Not really. Assuming the Jays have a normal amount of man games lost to injury they should be able to get close to 85 W.

At the same, I wouldn’t be shocked if they ended up under 500 either.
 

Discoverer

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I would be surprised if the Jays aren't in the top 5 of man games lost

That's why adding guys like Solarte and Diaz, who play the positions of the players most likely to be injured, was so important this offseason.
 

Suntouchable13

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Not really. Assuming the Jays have a normal amount of man games lost to injury they should be able to get close to 85 W.

At the same, I wouldn’t be shocked if they ended up under 500 either.

I still don't know if I should be excited about a potential race for the 2nd wild card spot.
 

zeke

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Not really. Assuming the Jays have a normal amount of man games lost to injury they should be able to get close to 85 W.

At the same, I wouldn’t be shocked if they ended up under 500 either.

they're projected for 85 W even with a higher than average amount of games missed.

that being said, if they are as injured as they were last year, then 85 wins is unlikely.
 
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Discoverer

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they're projected for 85 W even with a higher than average amount of games missed.

that being said, if they are as injured as they were last year, then 85 wins is unlikely.

Yep. In particular, they're still not in a position where they can withstand Sanchez missing almost the entire season.
 
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Suntouchable13

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Jays were chasing for a playoff spot from 1994 to 2017. I dont see why we should turn our noses up at a chase for a playoff spot now.

I know, I know. But I just hate taking a back seat to the Yankees and Red Sox again. I want us to have a great team, not a OK team. We should be happy to just be chasing the 2nd wild card while if the Sox or Yanks were in our position they would be very unhappy.
 

phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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We will see what Donaldson is worth when he signs but he will be 33 years old and 4 months when he takes the field on his next contract. Martinez will be 30 and 7 months when he suits up for Red Sox.

Anyone that gives Donaldson more than 4 years might regret it. But with the deep position at 3B, Donaldson age, the options in the 2019 free agency period, the very slow market the last 2 seasons and the potential of an injury or a down season between now and November if i were Donaldson i would be all ears regarding an extension with the Jays now if he truly wants to stay. The uncertainty of going to the market isnt as comforting as it was before.

But if he wants to bet on himself then all the power to him. Means he is more motivated.
 

phillipmike

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I know, I know. But I just hate taking a back seat to the Yankees and Red Sox again. I want us to have a great team, not a OK team. We should be happy to just be chasing the 2nd wild card while if the Sox or Yanks were in our position they would be very unhappy.

Its just projections plus the Yankees and Red Sox were the proverbial favorites from 1996 to now (in the last 22 years the Yankees and Red Sox won the division 17 times). In my opinion the Yankees and Red Sox are chasing a playoff spot and that could be the division or a wildcard spot - doesnt need to be one or the other. You chase the playoff spot and if you end up with the division or a WC spot then so be it - it is the playoffs. Yankees and Red Sox are both chasing a the division - at least one of them are gonna be disappointed because you cant have 2 division winners.

You dont give up because you turn your nose up at a wildcard spot. You are telling me if on April 3rd, 2016 someone told you that the Jays would be in the wildcard hunt would you say no to that? Because the Jays beat the O's in the Wildcard game and then beat Texas. I say chasing for a playoff spot can lead to great things like winning a wildcard spot and getting to a best of 5 series.

At least let some of the season play out before you give up.
 

BlueForever75

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Jays are better equipped this season then last if injuries occur once again. I am actually very confident that this season we will be in the playoff picture from the get go and possibly surprise a lot of people.
 

Eyedea

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Jan 29, 2012
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I know, I know. But I just hate taking a back seat to the Yankees and Red Sox again. I want us to have a great team, not a OK team. We should be happy to just be chasing the 2nd wild card while if the Sox or Yanks were in our position they would be very unhappy.

Meh, the wildcard Jays advanced further than the division winning Red Sox in 2016. Wildcards are still capable of winning championships, and they've been fairly effective since the new playoff format was established (6/12 WC winners have beat the 1st seeded team in the divisional series).
 

Brown Dog

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Jays are better equipped this season then last if injuries occur once again. I am actually very confident that this season we will be in the playoff picture from the get go and possibly surprise a lot of people.

Geez I don't know. If Smoak reverts to Smoak of old, I'm not really too jazzed about any of the bats beyond Donaldson to believe they can compete in the AL East.
 

Discoverer

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Geez I don't know. If Smoak reverts to Smoak of old, I'm not really too jazzed about any of the bats beyond Donaldson to believe they can compete in the AL East.

They basically have league-average or better offensive players at every position and average offensive players on the bench. They'll be just fine.

And if any middle-of-the-order hitter for any team reverts to a replacement-level player, that team's offense will be in trouble.
 

Brown Dog

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They basically have league-average or better offensive players at every position and average offensive players on the bench. They'll be just fine.

And if any middle-of-the-order hitter for any team reverts to a replacement-level player, that team's offense will be in trouble.

True, but Smoak's potential to regress to replacement level seems pretty high. And if that happens, who do you rely on? Morales? Grichuk? Tulo/Travis? Lots of question marks.
 

phillipmike

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Dont feel bad for Votto one bit - he will be collecting dough no matter what. He signed there for that long so let him stay there. Anyone signing anywhere but with the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and maybe Cardinals should expect a dip in wins and competition - he knew what he was getting himself into. And in a division with the Cards and currently constructed Cubs (maybe even the Brewers too) Votto should expect 2-3 more years of no playoffs.
 
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phillipmike

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True, but Smoak's potential to regress to replacement level seems pretty high. And if that happens, who do you rely on? Morales? Grichuk? Tulo/Travis? Lots of question marks.

You could ask those questions of Judge who was a -0.3 WAR player in 2016 or Stanton who was a 1.8 WAR player in 2016 and a player who has missed 40 games on average a season in the last 5 years. Every team has question marks...
 

Eyedea

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True, but Smoak's potential to regress to replacement level seems pretty high. And if that happens, who do you rely on? Morales? Grichuk? Tulo/Travis? Lots of question marks.

Dip back to 2016 production? No that doesn't seem reasonably high at all. Projections have him in between, not quite as good as his 2017, but certainly not as bad as any of his previous seasons.
 

Brown Dog

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You could ask those questions of Judge who was a -0.3 WAR player in 2016 or Stanton who was a 1.8 WAR player in 2016 and a player who has missed 40 games on average a season in the last 5 years. Every team has question marks...

Ok, sure, but do you really feel like Judge/Stanton are as likely as Smoak to crash back to earth?
 

phillipmike

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Ok, sure, but do you really feel like Judge/Stanton are as likely as Smoak to crash back to earth?

I dont see Judge as a 8 WAR player nor Stanton as a 7 WAR player but i get what you are trying to say.

It doesnt have to go that far. I dont see Gardner as a 3.8 WAR player again. I dont see Severino going from a 0.6 WAR pitcher to 5.7 WAR. I dont see Hicks putting up 0.8 WAR in his 1289 PAs from the start of his career to 2016 then going to 3.3 WAR in 351 PAs in 2017.

Everyone has their question marks.
 

Discoverer

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Ok, sure, but do you really feel like Judge/Stanton are as likely as Smoak to crash back to earth?

Judge? Absolutely.

Neither is likely to become a replacement-level player, but projections have both Smoak and Judge being worth somewhere around half their 2017 WAR total in 2018.

Any outlier season like that should be taken with a grain of salt, but expecting a player to fully regress makes no sense at all. It's the most recent, meaningful information we have... why would we treat it as if it never happened?
 

barilko05

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Steve Phillips (TSN) said he thinks it's not about $$ with Donaldson. It's about term. He figures Jays are offering 3 or 4. JD wants 6 or 7. Both have essentially agreed on money, but are apart on years. I say saw it off with 3 plus a player option for Yr 4 and Team option for 5. Both sides get what they want (essentially) but both have an out after 3 if things aren't going the way each wants. Seems pretty simple, which is why it probably won't happen.
 
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