Pre-Game Talk: Winnipeg Jets @ the Detroit Red Wings Jan 13th maybe

[surixon]

The funny thing to me is that our fans can't even see that the problem is that both the top 2 centres are now -s. That's the guys that are supposed to win matchups, that aren't. Lowry is still a plus 5 on 5, marginally. Yet the scapegoat in our losses is him for lack of secondary scoring instead of primary defense. The special teams is the icing on the cake. I do think that Perfetti could make a difference, as I would like to see Stastny in front of the net on the 2nd unit, but that's not the Jets biggest problem.

Having two top centres that struggle on the draw, and struggle in d-zone coverage is. Also Stanley on that 1st PK unit is a problem, and after the Avalanche game the Jets have 4 players left averaging under 10 g/60 or broken down, able to kill off 3 penalties in a row, those are Stastny, Connor, Beaulieu and Morrissey.

That's to me the signs of a non playoff team. And promoting Cole Perfetti because he had AHL success, is not the answer to all our problems. This team in my opinion is built wrong, and still not accountable. God help us if Stastny is out for any length, because he's been the one consistent positive to me, whichever line he is on plays well.

Plus minus is a terrible stat to use here. How many empty net goals have Scheifele and Dunois been out for trying to tie a game that skews those numbers.

Both have a higher 5 on 5 GF% at 5 on 5 then Lowry.

 

[voyageur]

Plus minus is a terrible stat to use here. How many empty net goals have Scheifele and Dunois been out for trying to tie a game that skews those numbers.

Both have a higher 5 on 5 GF% at 5 on 5 then Lowry.

xGF is a voodoo stat. You either score or you don't, you don't predict goals. If you can't see that the Scheif is not putting in an adequate defensive effort then we are going to disagree strongly.

Lowry is still a positive player 5 on 5, any which way.

Scheifele is not. Even if you count him on the ice for all 4 goals scored with the goalie pulled. And that's with more offensive zone time.

Dubois is closer to the average, but you want to be a playoff team? You can't have a power centre consistently lose draws, so at some point coach has to protect him. Because faceoffs matter.

 

[surixon]

xGF is a voodoo stat. You either score or you don't, you don't predict goals. If you can't see that the Scheif is not putting in an adequate defensive effort then we are going to disagree strongly.

Lowry is still a positive player 5 on 5, any which way.

Scheifele is not. Even if you count him on the ice for all 4 goals scored with the goalie pulled. And that's with more offensive zone time.

Dubois is closer to the average, but you want to be a playoff team? You can't have a power centre consistently lose draws, so at some point coach has to protect him. Because faceoffs matter.

I'm not talking XGF I'm talking straight up GF%. I.e the % of actual GF vs GA scored with the player on the ice.

 

[voyageur]

I'm not talking XGF I'm talking straight up GF%. I.e the % of actual GF vs GA scored with the player on the ice.

Well, if you are counting a guy who only plays PP, vs. a guy who kills penalties, the guy who plays PP should have more goals than the guy who kills penalties, on average.

If we are talking 5 on 5 hockey Scheifele is 3.2 GF/60, 3.7 GA/60, Lowry 1.4 GF/60, 1.3 GA/60, the latter is probably among the elite in the league, if you dig more.

Funny Lowry is 5.4 GF/60 on the PP, and Scheifele is only 7.8, so I wouldn't even say that Lowry is dragging down the PP, considering the ice time.

 

[surixon]

Well, if you are counting a guy who only plays PP, vs. a guy who kills penalties, the guy who plays PP should have more goals than the guy who kills penalties, on average.

If we are talking 5 on 5 hockey Scheifele is 3.2 GF/60, 3.7 GA/60, Lowry 1.4 GF/60, 1.3 GA/60, the latter is probably among the elite in the league, if you dig more.

Funny Lowry is 5.4 GF/60 on the PP, and Scheifele is only 7.8, so I wouldn't even say that Lowry is dragging down the PP, considering the ice time.

I'm using natural stattrick numbers which disagree with your numbers.

 

[voyageur]

I'm using natural stattrick numbers which disagree with your numbers.

Hockey Reference. I would trust them as a source. How does a -7 player become a plus? Even with the empty net goals, even with the PP goals against, which I think is 2.

I think you are using bad info to come to your conclusions.

 

[Eyeseeing]

This start-stop-start-stop pattern is killing all the momentum of the season. Hard to stay invested with weeks long breaks between games.

Yep
If it’s difficult as a fan cannot be easy for the coaches or players either.

 

[surixon]

Hockey Reference. I would trust them as a source. How does a -7 player become a plus? Even with the empty net goals, even with the PP goals against, which I think is 2.

I think you are using bad info to come to your conclusions.

Lowry has a -1 5 on 5 goal differential based on the site i'm using, Scheifele -2. Dubois +2.

NHL.com has Dubois and Lowry at +1 ES goal differential, and Scheifele -4 goal differential.

I think it is pretty clear that our centers in general are not doing a good enough job at outscoring their opponents.

 

[Jets 31]

Well, if you are counting a guy who only plays PP, vs. a guy who kills penalties, the guy who plays PP should have more goals than the guy who kills penalties, on average.

If we are talking 5 on 5 hockey Scheifele is 3.2 GF/60, 3.7 GA/60, Lowry 1.4 GF/60, 1.3 GA/60, the latter is probably among the elite in the league, if you dig more.

Funny Lowry is 5.4 GF/60 on the PP, and Scheifele is only 7.8, so I wouldn't even say that Lowry is dragging down the PP, considering the ice time.

Lowry has hands of stone pure and simple and should never be on the PP . Scheifele is definitely having a down year but all our numbers took a big hit after losing 7-1 . If the Jets win next game 8-0 the guys numbers will all look a little better.

 

[voyageur]

Lowry has hands of stone pure and simple and should never be on the PP . Scheifele is definitely having a down year but all our numbers took a big hit after losing 7-1 . If the Jets win next game 8-0 the guys numbers will all look a little better.

I don't think you necessarily put him out there to score goals. 1st PP you have some puck movement capabilities with Scheif and Connor on their shooting sides. Dubois is tough, and Copp has good hands around the net. Pionk gets a fair number of shots through, and is pretty good at knocking down pucks.

2nd PP Lurch is a great screen. That's a hard player to move, and so he can create the traffic to get shots through. I would personally put someone else on there that can shoot, and keep Stastny in front, but I don't think that's what is hampering us, per se. His numbers on the PP are actually better than Ehlers, so maybe there is something about having that net front presence. I think the 2 player screen that I have seen from our 2nd PP can be effective. Most goals come on the doorstep. You kind of knew that when Dave Lowry took over as coach, son Adam's ice time wasn't going to suffer. Coach knows the player, and vice versa, so the directive is pretty clear.

Yes some of the numbers took a hit after a whooping. Especially the top two centres who were out for every even strength goal, and the penalty killers.

This is a big game, Detroit is slumping, and the Jets, they need all the points they can get. There should be some motivated players on our side.

It's a wierd trip though, because I suspect they come back home after the game, and practice to make up the cancelled weekend games, before heading back out on the road. 4 games over a month takes some of the rythym out of a team.

 

[Jets 31]

I don't think you necessarily put him out there to score goals. 1st PP you have some puck movement capabilities with Scheif and Connor on their shooting sides. Dubois is tough, and Copp has good hands around the net. Pionk gets a fair number of shots through, and is pretty good at knocking down pucks.

2nd PP Lurch is a great screen. That's a hard player to move, and so he can create the traffic to get shots through. I would personally put someone else on there that can shoot, and keep Stastny in front, but I don't think that's what is hampering us, per se. His numbers on the PP are actually better than Ehlers, so maybe there is something about having that net front presence. I think the 2 player screen that I have seen from our 2nd PP can be effective. Most goals come on the doorstep. You kind of knew that when Dave Lowry took over as coach, son Adam's ice time wasn't going to suffer. Coach knows the player, and vice versa, so the directive is pretty clear.

Yes some of the numbers took a hit after a whooping. Especially the top two centres who were out for every even strength goal, and the penalty killers.

This is a big game, Detroit is slumping, and the Jets, they need all the points they can get. There should be some motivated players on our side.

It's a wierd trip though, because I suspect they come back home after the game, and practice to make up the cancelled weekend games, before heading back out on the road. 4 games over a month takes some of the rythym out of a team.

I agree with alot of what you say but i want all our best talent on PP1 , this needs to be tried. You can have Lowry, Copp and Stastny on the second PP if you want but Scheifele, Connor, Dubois, Ehlers should get a go on PP1. The Jets should come out pissed off and flying against Detroit because they will have been sitting on a 7-1 thumping for a long time.

 

[surixon]

I agree with alot of what you say but i want all our best talent on PP1 , this needs to be tried. You can have Lowry, Copp and Stastny on the second PP if you want but Scheifele, Connor, Dubois, Ehlers should get a go on PP1. The Jets should come out pissed off and flying against Detroit because they will have been sitting on a 7-1 thumping for a long time.

The issue is that a lot of the Jets top talent is very similar in what it wants to do on the PP, as such there is role overlap between Scheifele, Ehlers, Conner, and Perfetti in the future.

All four prefer to be HB players. I think in the future this should allow us to dress two very dangerous units that can each work out of both sides.

Dubois is excellent as a net front and down low presence. Wheeler will likely be able to do this on PP2. Now you just need the bumper players and Copp, Stastny should do fine there.

Cycle through Pionk, Morrissey, Schmidt as the top of the umbrella.

 

[Jets 31]

The issue is that a lot of the Jets top talent is very similar in what it wants to do on the PP, as such there is role overlap between Scheifele, Ehlers, Conner, and Perfetti in the future.

All four prefer to be HB players. I think in the future this should allow us to dress two very dangerous units that can each work out of both sides.

Dubois is excellent as a net front and down low presence. Wheeler will likely be able to do this on PP2. Now you just need the bumper players and Copp, Stastny should do fine there.

Cycle through Pionk, Morrissey, Schmidt as the top of the umbrella.

I agree with what you are saying but i just would like to see it tried, all our best offensive players on the ice at the same time. It's the old saying don't know until you try thing for me, especially with a new coach this is a good time to try things out.

 

[surixon]

I agree with what you are saying but i just would like to see it tried, all our best offensive players on the ice at the same time. It's the old saying don't know until you try thing for me, especially with a new coach this is a good time to try things out.

If you can get buy in from some to play roles they don't want to play then sure.

 

[SM]

DAMMIT

 

[JetsUK]

DAMMIT

Jeebus. That is not good news at this point. Hopefully Nik is well and out of protocol soon.

I'd actually completely forgotten where and even whether the Jets were/ are playing at this point. The schedule has really thrown a wrench into my game anticipation. Feels like I need to set a push notification for "Jets are actually really truly honest-to-goodness playing a game today/ tonight/ this month."

 

[Jetsfan79]

I wonder if the NHL will try to re-structure the remaining league wide schedule. Maybe we see Jets road games pulled/moved up from March and April into Feb and transfer the postponed home games into the last couple months of the season.

 

[RetroWinnipeg]

Alexa, are the Jets playing tonight?

 

[Jet]

Wow, that's some serious change. As in, almost a thousand pairs of Manolo Blahniks serious.

Thanks to both of you for the numbers.

I love the Sex In The City Measurement system

 

[Jet]

Small samples is also called results. The ceiling for Perfetti is high, but no one would put Perfetti on a checking line now, because his game isn't suited for it. Reichel looks like he belongs on the bottom lines in the NHL. If Perfetti belongs in the top 6, he should get his chance to prove it on this road trip.

I would also suggest this is probably Reichels last shot at making the team. Perfetti has a lot of runway left.

So, are you going to throw away a potential prospect in order to rush a very young one along?

I don’t think that's sound asset management.

 

[WolfHouse]

DAMMIT

He looked really off last game... was wondering if covid was spreading thru the locker room at warp
Speed

 

[kanadalainen]

DAMMIT

Well well, that stinks quite nicely.

 

[WolfHouse]

I wonder if the NHL will try to re-structure the remaining league wide schedule. Maybe we see Jets road games pulled/moved up from March and April into Feb and transfer the postponed home games into the last couple months of the season.

I don’t have much faith that the cons will lift Manitoba restrictions by then...

 

[jetsforever]

DAMMIT

That sucks but silver lining is he shouldn't miss many games since so many are postponed
Hope no one else got it

 

[Jets 31]

Can Covid just f*** off already, it's winter and i'd like to watch a Jets game more than once a month. Hope Ehlers makes a fast recovery.