Wings vs. Leafs prospect pools

newfy

Registered User
Jul 28, 2010
14,771
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Are you sure about that?

Kadri GP: 44 P: 41 PPG: 0.93

Tatar GP 70 P: 57 PPG: 0.81

Tatar also played on a much better team.

I did a comparison mid season of them when Tatar had played about 55 games and it was teh same, I assumed it stayed pretty close. Their goals per game is pretty much the same however. When they had played the same amount of games it was teh same and I'm sure Kadris would havve balanced out

And the griffins were a worst team than the Marlies last year so Im not sure what youre talking about.
 

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
48,889
11,446
Kadri and Tatar had virtually the exact same production in the AHL last season yet Kadri is playing on Torontos top line for a good chunk of the year and Tatar gets a brief little stint with barely any playing time.
Your stats have been corrected, but Kadri didn't spend much time with Kessel. He played roughly 5-6 games with him and only 2-4 of those games were together. It was a quick experiment and Kadri's longer call-up saw him spend the majority of him time on the 3rd line.
 

jntadt22

Registered User
Mar 6, 2011
255
5
Fort Wayne, IN
Prospect pool is Toronto over Detroit by a bunch.

If you limited your "better organization" to the past 20 years then you'd have a case.

At any rate, it'll be interesting to see what happens to Detroit once Lidstrom retires. They miraculously got out of the first wave of retirements on the backs of Zetterberg and Datsyuk. We'll see what happens this time around.

Worth noting that we're comparing one of the oldest teams in the league with one of the youngest:

Justin Abdelkader - 24
Todd Bertuzzi - 36
Danny Cleary - 32
Pavel Datsyuk - 33
Patrick Eaves - 27
Valtteri Filppula - 27
Johan Franzen - 31
Darren Helm - 24
Tomas Holmstrom - 38
Jiri Hudler - 27
Drew Miller - 27
Jan Mursak - 23
Henrik Zetterberg - 30

Mike Commodore - 31
Jonathan Ericsson - 27
Jakub Kindl - 24
Niklas Kronwall - 30
Nicklas Lidstrom - 41
Brad Stuart - 31
Ian White - 27

Ty Conklin - 35
Jimmy Howard - 27

vs.

Colby Armstrong - 28
Tyler Bozak - 25
Mike Brown - 26
Tim Connolly - 30
Philippe Dupuis - 26
Mikhail Grabovski - 27
Nazem Kadri - 20
Phil Kessel - 23
Nikolai Kulemin - 25
Matthew Lombardi - 29
Joffrey Lupul - 27
Clarke MacArthur - 26
Colton Orr - 29

Keith Aulie - 22
Cody Franson - 24
Carl Gunnarsson - 24
Mike Komisarek - 29
John-Michael Liles - 30
Dion Phaneuf - 26
Luke Schenn - 21

Jonas Gustavsson - 26
James Reimer - 23


Detroit Average
Forwards: 29.2 y/o
Defense: 30.1 y/o
Goalie: 31 y/o
Overall: 29.6 y/o

Toronto Average
Forwards: 26.2 y/o
Defense: 25.1 y/o
Goalie: 24.5 y/o
Overall: 25.7 y/o


I don't think I can disagree with anything you have said with this post. That is why these two teams shouldn't even be close to compared. They're not in the same situation, so they shouldn't have the same prospect ideals or needs. I think it would be more accurate to rate the difference between like teams in the NHL. Not two teams that are in different places organizationally.

And so you know, I am saying they are a better organization currently and for the past decade and a half. I don't think anyone in their right mind thinks the Detroit of the 80's resembles anything of Today's Detroit Red Wings. And yes I understand that for quite awhile Toronto was the class of the league, but I think even you can admit, that it's been sometime since that's been the case.

In addition, I think the one thing that might not be conveyed properly is the fact that because Detroit doesn't have a whole lot of needs at the NHL level, they can go out and sign or trade, for guys that are older for a year or two and for a lot less than what Toronto could do. That in itself is part of the reason that Detroit might not have the prospects that Toronto has.

At the end of the day, prospects don't really mean squat anyhow! What matters is today, this month, this season and this year's Stanley Cup Champs. So I guess we might as well say that Boston is the team to beat and forget this whole thread!!!

Let's go have a beer!!!!!!!
 

newfy

Registered User
Jul 28, 2010
14,771
8,328
Your stats have been corrected, but Kadri didn't spend much time with Kessel. He played roughly 5-6 games with him and only 2-4 of those games were together. It was a quick experiment and Kadri's longer call-up saw him spend the majority of him time on the 3rd line.

Actually Kadri did in fact spend his most time with Kessel, his most common line was him bozer and kessel.

On his call up he did spend most time with Boyce and Crabb.
 

Pneuma

Registered User
Apr 10, 2011
179
0
When Lidstrom, captain of the Detroit senior citizen home retires, the franchise will plummet into the depths of despair. However, this is not before Toronto, armed with a dynasty in the making, begins their dominance over the league with youthful exuberance.

All joking aside, this disussion has been had many a times in many different forums. It has absolutely no relevance to this thread and, per the old saying, you're beating a dead horse. For the record, we know that our core is aging and we're certainly worried about our future when they're gone.

I don't think there's much else to be said. Nearly every wings fan has admitted Toronto has a better prospect pool with the only contention being that Toronto fans are detracting from our prospects in the process. You have an excellent prospect, a great young core, and a bright future. Hopefully, posters will take a step back and realize that it's possible to debate the merits of your prospects without dismissing those of another team's(this goes for both sides).
 

embracedbias

Registered User
Jan 11, 2009
6,224
82
Waterloo
What you dont understand apparently is that the wings over ripen all their prospects.

Yeah they can survive without having those prospects on their team but Detroit this year would be a better team with Smith in the lineup over Commodore or Kindl.

They choose not to bring him up because they think it is better for his long term development.

Most teams in the NHL would take a guy of this calibre and play him. Not all teams do this to the extent Detroit does

Again, your only example is something that hasn't happened... and that is predicated on something that may not be true (i.e., Smith is better than Commodore).
 

embracedbias

Registered User
Jan 11, 2009
6,224
82
Waterloo
I don't think I can disagree with anything you have said with this post. That is why these two teams shouldn't even be close to compared. They're not in the same situation, so they shouldn't have the same prospect ideals or needs. I think it would be more accurate to rate the difference between like teams in the NHL. Not two teams that are in different places organizationally.

And so you know, I am saying they are a better organization currently and for the past decade and a half. I don't think anyone in their right mind thinks the Detroit of the 80's resembles anything of Today's Detroit Red Wings. And yes I understand that for quite awhile Toronto was the class of the league, but I think even you can admit, that it's been sometime since that's been the case.

In addition, I think the one thing that might not be conveyed properly is the fact that because Detroit doesn't have a whole lot of needs at the NHL level, they can go out and sign or trade, for guys that are older for a year or two and for a lot less than what Toronto could do. That in itself is part of the reason that Detroit might not have the prospects that Toronto has.

At the end of the day, prospects don't really mean squat anyhow! What matters is today, this month, this season and this year's Stanley Cup Champs. So I guess we might as well say that Boston is the team to beat and forget this whole thread!!!

Let's go have a beer!!!!!!!

Fair enough compadre, fair enough. :cheers:
 

obey86

Registered User
Jun 9, 2009
8,013
1,274
Concerning the question of "which teams had the most success at the draft" I took the NHL draft history and focused on two stats: GP and Pts. I took the mean (average) GP and Pts for each team both from 1994-2009 and from 2000-2009. That gives us the average GP and Pts per draft pick. Next, I ranked the teams for each category. Finally, I added the ranks for GP and Pts and divided the result by 2. Here's the list:

1994-2009
Ottawa
San Jose
Buffalo
Florida
Boston
New Jersey
Colorado
NY Islanders
Anaheim
Pittsburgh
Vancouver
Los Angeles
Montreal
Toronto
Edmonton
Philadelphia
Dallas
Calgary
Nashville
Minnesota
Detroit
St. Louis
Tampa Bay
NY Rangers
Chicago
Atlanta
Carolina
Washington
Columbus
Phoenix

2000-2009
Buffalo
Pittsburgh
Minnesota
Philadelphia
Montreal
Los Angeles
Ottawa
Boston
Washington
San Jose
Toronto
Columbus
Anaheim
Atlanta
Colorado
Edmonton
Florida
Nashville
Chicago
Dallas
Calgary
NY Rangers
Carolina
NY Islanders
St. Louis
New Jersey
Detroit
Vancouver
Phoenix
Tampa Bay


Notes: It isn't very clean, but this is a rough estimation of drafting success. I didn't exclude goaltenders, so they contribute to the means for GP and Pts. It would be better to exclude them altogether, but I don't feel like doing the work.

Also, this isn't just 1st round drafting success. It's every round.

Pretty clear that Detroit is not as successful at the draft as people think. See for yourself: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Detroit_Red_Wings_draft_picks

this is dumb. prospects from bad teams are inherently going to play more games and score more points. a team lacking quality players at the NHL level/rebuilding is more likely to give a prospect a chance in the NHL and/or allow them to play on the 1st or 2nd line and hence a chance to score more points than a team like the redwings who's 1st and 2nd line have been stacked over the years.

more opportunity for prospects on bad teams to put up points and play games. common sense.

given an average player (lets call him player x), would he play more games and put up more points on the maple leafs of 2008 or the redwings of 2008? extrapolate that over a 20 year sample size with multiple prospects and you will see what I am talking about. Brendan Smith is a very good example...on numerous bad teams across the league he would have been in the NHL last season and playing in the top 4 while he gained experience. On the wings he probably wont even make the team THIS season.
 
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The Chiddler

Registered User
Feb 4, 2011
519
0
Toronto
I did a comparison mid season of them when Tatar had played about 55 games and it was teh same, I assumed it stayed pretty close. Their goals per game is pretty much the same however. When they had played the same amount of games it was teh same and I'm sure Kadris would havve balanced out

And the griffins were a worst team than the Marlies last year so Im not sure what youre talking about.

Kadri 44 GP 17 G 24 A 41 P
GPG: 0.39
APG: 0.55

If Kadri stayed on pace and played as many games as Tatar he'd have about:

70 GP 27 G 38 A 65 P

Tatar 70 GP 24 G 33A 57 P
GPG: 0.34
APG: 0.47

I'm not sure if Kadri could of kept up his stats the whole year but we'll never know, because he was up playing in the NHL, but I'm not going to assume that he wouldn't have.

Marlies with 40 or more points last year:

Mike Zigomanis 64 GP 47 Points
Nazem Kadri 44 GP 41 Points

Griffins with 40 or more points last year:

Illari Filppula 76 GP 64 Points
Tomas Tatar 70 GP 57 points
Jamie Tardif 77 GP 54 Points
Francis Pare 80 GP 54 Points

The Marlies might have had a couple more points then the Griffins, but Tatar had more help up front then Kadri did. If Kadri wasn't called up he probably would have continued to be the teams leading scorer.

People really like to crap on Kadri around here, but he really hasn't shown much reason to doubt him.

Edit: The Marlies Goalies played a lot better the the Grand Rapids goalies.
 
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Eaglepride*

Guest
Well drafting is only side the other is development. Its not Wingsfans overrating their draftings, its mostly others. If you are picking late year after year after year after year chances are extremely slim, of drafting another Zetterberg or Datsyuk.

Nowadays always every team does invest heavily into scout and development, so its way more difficult for "us" getting the players we want.

I really like Pulkkinen, Smith, Tatar and Jarnkrok. I am one of the few who didn't like this years draft cause of too many high risk high reward picks.

Jurco is a marvelous stickhandler but lacks work ethic so not exactly what I call a babstype player.

Toronto prospects I like are Reimer, Gardiner, Coburne and Frattin.

Summary for me: the Toronto has way more save picks with decent updside, Wings other than the ones mentioned too many high risk high reward picks.
 

Benttheknee

Registered User
Jun 18, 2005
3,153
325
Ottawa
Here is something that I think favours the Detroit prospect pool.

If you look at the HF top 50, there are names that rise and fall, and in the last 2 lists, I would have to say that 3 of Detroits prospects would have to be considered 'hot' for the lack of a better word.

In last Falls top 50, Smith(35) and Tatar(36) both made the list for the first time. This is impressive because the Fall list includes all of the recent draft picks. So that list is far more impressive than the Spring list. Skinner was 31 and Burmistov was 42nd to provide perspective.

In the spring list, Smith came in at 22nd and Tatar at 26th solidifying their top prospect status. Coming out of nowhere was Pulkkinen (34th), who was just months earlier was drafted in the 4th round. Etem for example was 32nd. That is an astonishing progression, and in my estimation makes Pulkkinen the fastest riser of all the 2010 picks by a substantial amount.

So, if your looking for top prospects that are trending upwards, Detroit is likely the most impressive team out there.

(This is all based on HF Top 50 lists of course)
 

Shaolin

Registered User
Jul 24, 2011
31
0
Toronto, ON
The thing is that Detroit's development system seems to be so much more effective than Toronto's. Some of their prospects might not seem so impressive now but could end up excelling in the Red Wings organization.

Don't forget that Datsyuk's best statistical season before being drafted saw him getting only 26 points in 46 games, and he's never done worse than that since.
 

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
48,889
11,446
Actually Kadri did in fact spend his most time with Kessel, his most common line was him bozer and kessel.

On his call up he did spend most time with Boyce and Crabb.
5-7 games isn't "a good chunk" no matter how you slice it.
 

Lonewolfe2015

Rom Com Male Lead
Sponsor
Dec 2, 2007
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Tatar + Kadri... Tatar became the youngest wing to score a goal since Jiri Fischer made the team as an 18 year old.

I have very little to add to this thread besides point out that this is false.

Tatar was younger than Fischer. (20yr, 1 month versus 20yr, 9 month)

Continue.
 

TyBOZAK*

Guest
Gardiner and Smith are pretty close talents. Neither are future #1 defensemen, but still. I know how much Wings fans like to overrated Brendan Smith but he isn't that far ahead of Gardiner.

Also, Kadri is clearly a better prospect than Tatar right now.

Overall, it is close. Detroit has so many question marks while Toronto has the safer prospects. Really is a toss up IMO.

I agree with this, both have prospects that could really improve and blow people away. (Mckegg, Sheahan, etc.)
 

TyBOZAK*

Guest
Kadri actually played 3% more with Kessel and Bozak than he did with Boyce and Crabb, no matter how you slice it

Where did you get this from? I know for a fact he played a chunk of his game's with Armstrong.
 

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
48,889
11,446
Kadri actually played 3% more with Kessel and Bozak than he did with Boyce and Crabb, no matter how you slice it
...which still does not mean he spent most or a good chunk of the season with Kessel. He barely spent "a good chunk" of his year in the NHL.
 

Probie

Registered User
Feb 19, 2009
504
1
Vancouver Is, Canada
Wait wait.. you think Franzen is playing better than Kaberle ever did?

I read that, and stopped reading.

For one thing, it's apples and oranges. Kaberle is a defencemen, Franzen is a forward. However, Kaberle was a top pairing defencemen. Kaberle actually has scored 65+ points in his career, Franzen has never topped 60. Kaberle at one time was counted on for nearly 30 minutes a game. Franzen?

Kaberle at his best was a #1 defencemen. Franzen has never been more than a 2nd line center thus far in his career.

You realize Kaberle is a defencemen right?

Wow.

:help:

Been away for a while.

I meant to say at their best (NOW) IE 2011 both giving 100% i would rather have Franzen vs Kaberle. Obviously comparing career stats Kaberle comes out on top, no questions, he has put up good numbers I'm no idiot, its not hard to look up career stats. He is good offensively, no doubt. I will leave it at that.

Maybe now that's clarified, try reading the post of mine.

I made it quite clear now Toronto has a slight edge in prospect pools. I also made it quite clear that its not due to Toronto having superior drafting, where my team obviously has the advantage. That's my whole point here in the thread. I got arguments against that fact, so I put forward facts showing this.

I showed that If Toronto had not traded players off its roster(you can call it a rebuild) its current prospect pool(I listed the one before the new hf rankings came out since they weren't out yet) would be left looking something definitely less then it is right now. If you also remove additional draft picks that Toronto had at its disposal due to trading roster players for picks then their current pool of prospects is not as good either. You combine these two factors and compare players drafted from original picks, then our current prospect pool would be better obviously, and that would mean our drafting is better too right?



@Other Leaf fans in the thread:
I see some of you have disagreed that getting additional draft picks from trading roster players is not going to effect the outcome of your prospect pool? Lets make this really simple: THIS IS JUST AN EXAMPLE. If TEAM A has twice as many draft picks as TEAM B, it makes sense TEAM A's prospect pool is going to look better since they have twice as many chances of drafting players.

Now leaf fans if we were to look at ability of drafting, let us compare what each team has drafted(in our current pools) via original picks, and then compare prospect pools. Detroit has the better pool. Your team also picks before Detroit and usually not just by a bit. Just re-read my post, and you will see it.

If you add in the prospects your team traded roster players for, and add in the additional prospects that they drafted by obtaining ADDITIONAL picks, THEN Toronto's prospect pool looks slightly better. My point is it doesn't mean you have better drafting. Who would have the better prospect pool if Detroit traded roster players for 3 new additional top prospects, and then also traded 3 roster players for multiple picks, like firsts and seconds? Obviously Detroit would.




@OTHER LEAF FANS:
One of you guys sad its silly I'm comparing 30 years of draft history between the two teams to show who is better at drafting. The reason I'm doing this is because their is a little girl in the thread whining that it is luck Detroit was able to obtain better players in late rounds via the draft during a twenty year period and that's the only reason why our drafting was better. So i go back another ten years, and we compare again our drafting, so our team again out drafts you, so for a 30 year period Detroit out drafts Toronto. My argument is you cant argue that a team is better at drafting continually better players over a thirty year period because luck cancels itself out after such a long period of time. So I made my point with evidence (that no leaf fan has attempted or can try to refute). Which is all I wanted to do. Thank you.

@LEAF FANS SAYING THE LAST FEW YEARS TORONTO HAS PUT FORWARD MORE NHLers:
If our team picks near last every time and picks for skill, then our picks are going to be deficient in one area or another that means it takes longer for them to arrive. Guys that get drafted in the top 10 or around that in the first round have a good chance at being nhl ready, the guys later on in the draft order are often projects that are going to need time to be nhl ready (usually lack of size or strength). That's one reason some more of Toronto's recent picks have made it to the NHL sooner then Detroit's-see the 2006 and reference earlier in the thread by EmbrasedBias. Another reason is Detroit has a stronger team than Toronto so its harder for prospects to make the team, which means the have to wait longer, or sometimes have to get traded before they see significant nhl duty(See Quincey). So because of this a bit more Toronto draftees lately make it to the Nhl. Some of them wouldn't make Detroit in the first place.
This is talked about in this article:
 
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Probie

Registered User
Feb 19, 2009
504
1
Vancouver Is, Canada
Here is something that I think favours the Detroit prospect pool.

If you look at the HF top 50, there are names that rise and fall, and in the last 2 lists, I would have to say that 3 of Detroits prospects would have to be considered 'hot' for the lack of a better word.

In last Falls top 50, Smith(35) and Tatar(36) both made the list for the first time. This is impressive because the Fall list includes all of the recent draft picks. So that list is far more impressive than the Spring list. Skinner was 31 and Burmistov was 42nd to provide perspective.

In the spring list, Smith came in at 22nd and Tatar at 26th solidifying their top prospect status. Coming out of nowhere was Pulkkinen (34th), who was just months earlier was drafted in the 4th round. Etem for example was 32nd. That is an astonishing progression, and in my estimation makes Pulkkinen the fastest riser of all the 2010 picks by a substantial amount.

So, if your looking for top prospects that are trending upwards, Detroit is likely the most impressive team out there.

(This is all based on HF Top 50 lists of course)

yeah we have three of our top prospects in the top 50 of HF listing where Toronto only has two. I think Toronto right now due to the reasons I have posted, has the slightly better pool. There are a couple other sources besides HF Boards (which ranks TO above DET),that favors DET having the better prospect pool:

1 ESPNS's (via yahoo) not sure i can agree with it.
2 Hockey prospectus

Not sure I favor those two over HF boards listing though, thats for sure.
 

Probie

Registered User
Feb 19, 2009
504
1
Vancouver Is, Canada
What you just described is the strategy that is used by every team in the league.

As you say, the only major difference in terms of when prospects make good vs. bad teams is that young players have more competition on good teams. This does not mean that the better teams have a different strategy for dealing with prospects.

When a deep team has a prospect that will help them win, they will put that player in the lineup. Couture in San Jose is a good example.

This holds for Detroit as well. That is why players like Helm, Filppula, Hudler and Kronwall made the NHL before they ran out of waiver eligibility. How is this so difficult to understand?

One of the reason why your team brings more players into the league younger then we do is we do have a different approach and your team does rush players instead of letting them over ripe and your team admits they do rush players:

Maple Leafs said it themselves that they rushed Keith Aulie’s developement last year.


Stop saying other teams do exactly as detroit does in terms of developing and not rushing players:

Speaking of Phoenix, they are a great example of what happens when prospects are rushed.


More people saying leafs have in the past rushed their prospects
 

Benttheknee

Registered User
Jun 18, 2005
3,153
325
Ottawa
One of the reason why your team brings more players into the league younger then we do is we do have a different approach and your team does rush players instead of letting them over ripe and your team admits they do rush players:

Maple Leafs said it themselves that they rushed Keith Aulie’s developement last year.


Stop saying other teams do exactly as detroit does in terms of developing and not rushing players:

Speaking of Phoenix, they are a great example of what happens when prospects are rushed.


More people saying leafs have in the past rushed their prospects

I have heard this, but have yet to see an really good example. What is the benefit of an over ripe prospect? I would assume that they adjust faster to the NHL and are closer to their true potential when they arrive. Who fits the over-ripe profile?
 

newfy

Registered User
Jul 28, 2010
14,771
8,328
I have heard this, but have yet to see an really good example. What is the benefit of an over ripe prospect? I would assume that they adjust faster to the NHL and are closer to their true potential when they arrive. Who fits the over-ripe profile?

Or you could take a guy who projects to be a 4th liner, leave him to become overripe and let him play more minutes in an offensive role to develop a scoring touch.

When Helm came in everyone touted him as a 4th line center, with his speed alone he would have made most NHL teams. They left him develop longer then he shouldve so he got to play as more of a scorer instead of just 4th line minutes, and now hes looking like he'll put up 40 points or so next season.

It doesnt mean theyll jump into the NHL and dominate right away, but it does mean they have a chance to take a 3rd line prospect, develop his confidence and scoring touch in a bigger role, than all of a sudden he develops into a secondliner
 

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