Wings vs. Leafs prospect pools

[Finnish your Czech]

No leafs fans actually think Aulie has top 2 potential right?

well when you play first line (5v5) ice time for ~ 20 games, and do it very well and steadily, especially at an age of 21/22, yes he does have #2 potential.

 

[Man Hole Inspector*]

Aulie will be a top 4 defenseman ideally used to shutdown team's topline.. LOL anyone who actually thinks Aulie will be a #2 guy is pretty bias. The only #2 pure shutdown defenseman I can even think of would be Robyn Regher which Aulie will not be in all realism

 

[Anchor Town*]

Wait, I don't understand how Mursak is a prime example of the overripe method. He got called up because of injuries... not because he was overripe. What exactly do you think the overripe method is?

If he was a better player, he would play more than 8:00 minutes. He would also have more points.



Another example of a player being put in the lineup because he was the best available option and not because he was overripe.



And yet neither of these guys are lighting up the league? Perhaps it's just the case that they weren't ready for the NHL?

Abdelkader played some games due to the injury bug (i.e., because he was the best available option).

Is it better for Kindl to play 13:00 minutes a night in the NHL or 20:00 minutes a night in the AHL?



Those are assumptions.



No, Detroit just doesn't have that good of prospects. Helm and Mursak were obviously not overripe. Same goes for Filppula*, Hudler** and Kronwall***. Abdelkader and Kindl may be examples... but they also aren't that good in the first place.

When Detroit has good prospects (Helm, Filppula, Hudler, Kronwall), they bring the prospects up earlier. Obviously, better prospects will be brought up earlier because they are more ready to make a contribution at the NHL level. If Detroit truly held to a strong "overripe" method, none of their prospects would play a game in the NHL until they lose waiver eligibility (barring special circumstances).



*Made the NHL at 22/23 after one season in the AHL. Had 17 points in 73 games.
** Played 12 games in the NHL at 20/21 after some AHL duty.
*** Played 20 games in the NHL at 22/23 after some AHL duty.

You realize players can overripen in the AHL while getting a call up or two due to injuries right?

Detroit would rather have a player like Smith (who is NHL ready) hone his game a bit more in the AHL while playing 25 minutes a night rather than playing 8 minutes a night in the NHL. After overripening in the AHL this year he will likely be placed into a 4/5 role with lots of PP time instead of a 6/7 role like he likely would if he only got 8 minutes a night the year before and didn't get much opportunity to improve his game

 

[Benttheknee]

You realize players can overripen in the AHL while getting a call up or two due to injuries right?

Detroit would rather have a player like Smith (who is NHL ready) hone his game a bit more in the AHL while playing 25 minutes a night rather than playing 8 minutes a night in the NHL. After overripening in the AHL this year he will likely be placed into a 4/5 role with lots of PP time instead of a 6/7 role like he likely would if he only got 8 minutes a night the year before and didn't get much opportunity to improve his game

While you may think that is the case, look at it from Smith's side.

Smith
"I want to make 1.2 million in the NHL"
Detroit
"Not quite yet my friend, your not just ripe yet"

What player likes to get burried? None. If that is what is truly happening, Detroit will have a hard time keeping kids. It isn't like they all have 10+ year careers. The average is about 4. Taking away that kinda cash gets people miffed.

 

[Anchor Town*]

While you may think that is the case, look at it from Smith's side.

Smith
"I want to make 1.2 million in the NHL"
Detroit
"Not quite yet my friend, your not just ripe yet"

What player likes to get burried? None. If that is what is truly happening, Detroit will have a hard time keeping kids. It isn't like they all have 10+ year careers. The average is about 4. Taking away that kinda cash gets people miffed.

Detroit has done it for the past 10 years, no prospects have ever complained. What if Ken Holland explained to Smith that if he seasoned in the AHL for another year, he would be more ready to take on a top 4 role next year, and his future as a hole would be brighter, thus begin able to negotiate for more money in the future?

Just playing devils advocate here

 

[Anchor Town*]

HF has Nestrasil as your #8 prospect.

I'd put him at 12, but still.. easily within your top 20.

We are currently doing polls on our top 20 prospects, we are on #19 and he currently has 2.44% of the vote with 6 guys having more than him. So I would argue that hardly any wings fans would put him in our top 20, possibly not even in our top 25

How would you rank our top 20?

 

[Phion Keneuf]

No leafs fans actually think Aulie has top 2 potential right?

he certaintly does... just because you gave him up doesnt mean he sucks ... he was absolutely stellar ... defensively sound and rarely made mistakes ... he wont be a big point getter but he's certaintly going to become a top 4 dman ... (he is already imo)

hopefully he keeps his game up from last year, he's a great kid to have on our team going forward

 

[Pneuma]

Detroit fans, just stop debating as it's clear that our prospects are simply inferior, mediocre, sub-par etc...

At least we have our old and soft team to look forward to.

 

[Benttheknee]

Detroit fans, just stop debating as it's clear that our prospects are simply inferior, mediocre, sub-par etc...

At least we have our old and soft team to look forward to.

I happen to have the opinion that the Detroit pool is actually in good shape, especially considering where they have drafted.

My beef is more the false perceptions about the (IMO) mythical Detroit drafting and development strategies.

IMO Detroit has drafted poorly over the last decade+ (2010 looking to be the exception). The reason for Detroits dominance on the ice is due to the great work done in the 90's, the ability to find great free agents and trades. This has masked the recent failures at the draft table (draft position is a real problem of course).

The idea that they ripen guys in the minors is hogwash. If that was the case, those that do make the club would perform at a higher level, since that is the reason to hold them back, yet they are like every other prospect (ok, the kind that work their way up a system). This ripening idea is simply used to provide cover for poor prospect depth. It only applies to Detroit, no other team can use this reasoning, and that is why I say hogwash

 

[embracedbias]

You realize players can overripen in the AHL while getting a call up or two due to injuries right?

Detroit would rather have a player like Smith (who is NHL ready) hone his game a bit more in the AHL while playing 25 minutes a night rather than playing 8 minutes a night in the NHL. After overripening in the AHL this year he will likely be placed into a 4/5 role with lots of PP time instead of a 6/7 role like he likely would if he only got 8 minutes a night the year before and didn't get much opportunity to improve his game

Okay now use a recent example that has actually happened.

 

[cheerupmurray]

Toronto has quite surprising drafted Sweden argually better than Detroit. I was very surprised when looking it up.

Not counting the 2010 and 2011 picks, 6 out of 7 the picks from Sweden Toronto have made since 2000 have made NHL and played 50+ games.

Tellqvist, Staffan Kronwall, Alex Steen, Strålman, Stålberg and Gunnarsson isn't the best group ever by no means but considering most of them was lateround picks it's a sign of good scouting.

In the period 2000-2006 Detroit drafted 20 swedes, they found Franzén, Nicklas Kronwall and Jonathan Ericsson (and Ritola with 38 Nhl-games) Some impressive finds but also 16 busts.

HÃ¥kan is a genius but he is no mr. 100%.

 

[RedMachine87]

While you may think that is the case, look at it from Smith's side.

Smith
"I want to make 1.2 million in the NHL"
Detroit
"Not quite yet my friend, your not just ripe yet"

What player likes to get burried? None. If that is what is truly happening, Detroit will have a hard time keeping kids. It isn't like they all have 10+ year careers. The average is about 4. Taking away that kinda cash gets people miffed.

Depends on if you look at it the right way. Sure if you're of the opinion that Detroit's over ripening development methods are just eating away at a player's prime income years then obviously the prospects may be a little miffed. But in my opinion, Detroit is providing these players with a far better opportunity to (1) stick in the NHL and (2) increase their earning potential. Sacrificing development for more money right now can bite you in the ass .

I happen to have the opinion that the Detroit pool is actually in good shape, especially considering where they have drafted.

My beef is more the false perceptions about the (IMO) mythical Detroit drafting and development strategies.

IMO Detroit has drafted poorly over the last decade+ (2010 looking to be the exception). The reason for Detroits dominance on the ice is due to the great work done in the 90's, the ability to find great free agents and trades. This has masked the recent failures at the draft table (draft position is a real problem of course).

The idea that they ripen guys in the minors is hogwash. If that was the case, those that do make the club would perform at a higher level, since that is the reason to hold them back, yet they are like every other prospect (ok, the kind that work their way up a system). This ripening idea is simply used to provide cover for poor prospect depth. It only applies to Detroit, no other team can use this reasoning, and that is why I say hogwash

Blah, blah, blah. This is very original, I've never heard anyone else on HF boards state this drivel.

 

[Midna]

No leafs fans actually think Aulie has top 2 potential right?

No. He will never be a #2 D-man, but he will be a good compliment to a #1 D-man.

 

[newfy]

Kadri and Reimer are better than any Wings prospect, clear cut.

Colborne and Gardiner are right in the same area as Smith.

So, at the top you have the Leafs clearly winning.

That's not even taking into account other really solid prospects in Keith Aulie (top 2 potential), Luca Caputi (2nd/3rd line potential), Tyler Biggs (top six potential), Stuart Percy (top 4 potential), Brad Ross, Jesse Blacker, and Jerry D'Amigo. That's 7 other guys with a decent shot at being an impact player, beyond the top 4. So a total of 11 real solid prospects.

Detroit?

They have bang or bust guys like Nestrasil and Nyquist, or potential grinders like Callahan in the same rank spots.

Leafs have the better top end talent, and the better depth.

This isn't even close. But, it's not a fair comparison either. Toronto should have a better prospect depth than Detroit, given that Detroit has been contending for ages.

Well I dont really think Reimer is a better prospect than Smith, nor do I think Kadri is that far ahead.

Smith is on a much higher level than Gardiner, Smith wasnt dominant compared to him when they played on the same NCAA team.

When you list Nestrasil as a prospect even worth discussion, I realize you have no clue about the wings prospects, maybe familiarize yourself with them before making posts on the subject

Ok, so lets pretend that this is in fact the case. What are the benefits to Detroit? One has to assume that since the players are 'more NHL ready' they would perform more closely to their peaks.

I guess that means that Fillupula, Kindl, Helm and Abdelkader have peaked?

What I think this is, is simply a myth. You have Smith available and he has experience. Why did Detroit pick up Commodore and White? Are they better than Smith?

Again, assuming this is the case, would the NHLPA not be a little miffed that Detroit is burying players in the minors? How would a player feel if they got picked up by Detroit and left to "ripen" at 80k a year, rather than making 1.2 million in the NHL for a team like Ottawa?

This simply is not true. Look at Condra and Greening in Ottawa, did they 'ripen' or were they just needing more development time in the AHL?

Detroit leaves players down until they are out of waiver options.

Whats better for the wings? Having White in their top 5, than if any of them go down injured they have a stellar prospect to call up in his place who can move freely because of waivers, or just playing Smith and having no depth?

You also have Smith playing another year of pro hockey and building confidence instead of him coming up, getting burned and having no confidence

That is the benefit to Detroit.

Wait, I don't understand how Mursak is a prime example of the overripe method. He got called up because of injuries... not because he was overripe. What exactly do you think the overripe method is?

If he was a better player, he would play more than 8:00 minutes. He would also have more points.



Another example of a player being put in the lineup because he was the best available option and not because he was overripe.



And yet neither of these guys are lighting up the league? Perhaps it's just the case that they weren't ready for the NHL?

Abdelkader played some games due to the injury bug (i.e., because he was the best available option).

Is it better for Kindl to play 13:00 minutes a night in the NHL or 20:00 minutes a night in the AHL?



Those are assumptions.



No, Detroit just doesn't have that good of prospects. Helm and Mursak were obviously not overripe. Same goes for Filppula*, Hudler** and Kronwall***. Abdelkader and Kindl may be examples... but they also aren't that good in the first place.

When Detroit has good prospects (Helm, Filppula, Hudler, Kronwall), they bring the prospects up earlier. Obviously, better prospects will be brought up earlier because they are more ready to make a contribution at the NHL level. If Detroit truly held to a strong "overripe" method, none of their prospects would play a game in the NHL until they lose waiver eligibility (barring special circumstances).



*Made the NHL at 22/23 after one season in the AHL. Had 17 points in 73 games.
** Played 12 games in the NHL at 20/21 after some AHL duty.
*** Played 20 games in the NHL at 22/23 after some AHL duty.

Do you not understand what the wings do at all?

Mursak was an NHL calibre player, they call him up when there are injuries. This gives the wings depth, allows Mursak to develop more and also gives him a taste of the NHL to get used to the speed.

Every prospect of the wings comes up full time whe he is out of waiver options.

The top prospects are given some time in the NHL due to injuries and whatnot the season before that so they can become accustomed to what it is like while being very sheltered.

This is what they have done for a very long time.


Than you say all this bullcrap about how thye should be lighting up the league?

Filppula is a pretty standard second line center with middle of the pack production and probably the best defense behind Kesler.
Hudler had 60 points from the third line.

Helm almost hit 40 points last year, if he isnt ripened up a bit in the AHL he gets stuck in the NHL not moving from Detroits 4th line and geting limited ice time. He would be stuuck as a 4th liner for a long time probably, instead now he has a decent set of hands.


Just because they make them overripe doesnt mean they should hop into the league and tear up. It means they develop their skills more by getting lots of icetime in bigger roles than they would in the NHL. Then when they crack the NHL they are given smaller roles to adjust to the speed and skill etc and eventually work their way up higher.

Helm is what 24? You think he is done developing? Abdelkader played his first season last year, he still could be a big producer. He was called up and played over Mark Hartigan in the playoffs because his team wasnt in the playoffs, whats better for development playing or not playing? hmmmm

This is the difference that you cant understand, crappy teams like the leafs can risk putting young guns like Kadri on their top lines because noone on the team is a better option.

Who exactly is Mursak gonna beat out when he is 22?

 

[embracedbias]

What you just described is the strategy that is used by every team in the league.

As you say, the only major difference in terms of when prospects make good vs. bad teams is that young players have more competition on good teams. This does not mean that the better teams have a different strategy for dealing with prospects.

When a deep team has a prospect that will help them win, they will put that player in the lineup. Couture in San Jose is a good example.

This holds for Detroit as well. That is why players like Helm, Filppula, Hudler and Kronwall made the NHL before they ran out of waiver eligibility. How is this so difficult to understand?

 

[embracedbias]

Just to be clear.

Mursak was an NHL calibre player, they call him up when there are injuries. This gives the wings depth, allows Mursak to develop more and also gives him a taste of the NHL to get used to the speed.

Every team in the league does this.

Every prospect of the wings comes up full time whe he is out of waiver options.

Every team in the league does this with players that run out of waiver options. The other option is to lose them for nothing. (which happens sometimes for every team... Ritola, for example)

The top prospects are given some time in the NHL due to injuries and whatnot the season before that so they can become accustomed to what it is like while being very sheltered.

Every team in the league does this.

Than you say all this bullcrap about how thye should be lighting up the league?

Filppula is a pretty standard second line center with middle of the pack production and probably the best defense behind Kesler.
Hudler had 60 points from the third line.

Helm almost hit 40 points last year, if he isnt ripened up a bit in the AHL he gets stuck in the NHL not moving from Detroits 4th line and geting limited ice time. He would be stuuck as a 4th liner for a long time probably, instead now he has a decent set of hands.

You are describing the benefits of bringing up a player before they are overripe. I.e., so they can learn in the NHL.

Can you please describe to me in more detail what you think "overripe" means?

This...

Just because they make them overripe doesnt mean they should hop into the league and tear up. It means they develop their skills more by getting lots of icetime in bigger roles than they would in the NHL. Then when they crack the NHL they are given smaller roles to adjust to the speed and skill etc and eventually work their way up higher.

... doesn't make any sense. Every team in the league does that.

Helm is what 24? You think he is done developing? Abdelkader played his first season last year, he still could be a big producer. He was called up and played over Mark Hartigan in the playoffs because his team wasnt in the playoffs, whats better for development playing or not playing? hmmmm

I really have no idea why you think I think Helm and Abdelkader are done developing. My point is that they don't seem "overripe". You apparently have a different definition of that word than I do. Your definition seems to hold for pretty much every prospect in the NHL, though.

This is the difference that you cant understand, crappy teams like the leafs can risk putting young guns like Kadri on their top lines because noone on the team is a better option.

The Leafs are putting Kadri on their top line? Boy that's a surprise.

 

[newfy]

Just to be clear.



Every team in the league does this.



Every team in the league does this with players that run out of waiver options. The other option is to lose them for nothing. (which happens sometimes for every team... Ritola, for example)



Every team in the league does this.



You are describing the benefits of bringing up a player before they are overripe. I.e., so they can learn in the NHL.

Can you please describe to me in more detail what you think "overripe" means?

This...



... doesn't make any sense. Every team in the league does that.



I really have no idea why you think I think Helm and Abdelkader are done developing. My point is that they don't seem "overripe". You apparently have a different definition of that word than I do. Your definition seems to hold for pretty much every prospect in the NHL, though.



The Leafs are putting Kadri on their top line? Boy that's a surprise.

But thats the thing, not every team in the league does it at all. This is basically the rule for every wings prospect, not just the ones that arent good enough for the NHL.

Holland has already said Smith could play this year, he is good enough but he wants him playing more minutes in the AHL and will be the first injury call up.

Smith is a much better prospect than Aulie, but why is it that Aulie is playing on the top pairing last season where Smith is in the AHL? Because Toronto doesnt overipen their players like Detroit does.

Kadri and Tatar had virtually the exact same production in the AHL last season yet Kadri is playing on Torontos top line for a good chunk of the year and Tatar gets a brief little stint with barely any playing time.

Caputi has seen quite a bit of time as well.

Detroit doesnt operate close to how Toronto does in terms of prospects and I wouldnt say Toronto even rushes their prospects.

Yes every team brings up players when they are out of waiver options, but not every team forces every prospect to wait that long to make the big club full time, Detroit does.

If you actually think Detroit brings along prospects the same way as every team in the league than you need a mental evaluation

 

[Benttheknee]

This development strategy is not unique to Detroit. It is used by all teams with mid level prospects that are in the upper echelon for a period of time. Good team just don't have roster spots.

I suspect this is more an issue of how long Detroit has been a super competitive team, when compared to others, and the fact that they have not had the blue chip prospect that pushes himself onto a roster spot at 19 or 20. All of their kids have to do this, so people think it applies across the board.

 

[Benttheknee]

Depends on if you look at it the right way. Sure if you're of the opinion that Detroit's over ripening development methods are just eating away at a player's prime income years then obviously the prospects may be a little miffed. But in my opinion, Detroit is providing these players with a far better opportunity to (1) stick in the NHL and (2) increase their earning potential. Sacrificing development for more money right now can bite you in the ass .



Blah, blah, blah. This is very original, I've never heard anyone else on HF boards state this drivel.

Given your first comment, I am surprised at your second. What I wrote was pertinent to the discussion and did not warrant a rude comment.

 

[embracedbias]

But thats the thing, not every team in the league does it at all. This is basically the rule for every wings prospect, not just the ones that arent good enough for the NHL.

Holland has already said Smith could play this year, he is good enough but he wants him playing more minutes in the AHL and will be the first injury call up.

Smith is a much better prospect than Aulie, but why is it that Aulie is playing on the top pairing last season where Smith is in the AHL? Because Toronto doesnt overipen their players like Detroit does.

Kadri and Tatar had virtually the exact same production in the AHL last season yet Kadri is playing on Torontos top line for a good chunk of the year and Tatar gets a brief little stint with barely any playing time.

Caputi has seen quite a bit of time as well.

Detroit doesnt operate close to how Toronto does in terms of prospects and I wouldnt say Toronto even rushes their prospects.

Yes every team brings up players when they are out of waiver options, but not every team forces every prospect to wait that long to make the big club full time, Detroit does.

If you actually think Detroit brings along prospects the same way as every team in the league than you need a mental evaluation

I'll just re-post this because you clearly didn't understand it.

What you just described is the strategy that is used by every team in the league.

As you say, the only major difference in terms of when prospects make good vs. bad teams is that young players have more competition on good teams. This does not mean that the better teams have a different strategy for dealing with prospects.

When a deep team has a prospect that will help them win, they will put that player in the lineup. Couture in San Jose is a good example.

This holds for Detroit as well. That is why players like Helm, Filppula, Hudler and Kronwall made the NHL before they ran out of waiver eligibility. How is this so difficult to understand?

 

[The Chiddler]

Kadri and Tatar had virtually the exact same production in the AHL last season yet Kadri is playing on Torontos top line for a good chunk of the year and Tatar gets a brief little stint with barely any playing time.

Are you sure about that?

Kadri GP: 44 P: 41 PPG: 0.93

Tatar GP 70 P: 57 PPG: 0.81

Tatar also played on a much better team.

 

[jntadt22]

Who has the better "Prospect Pool"? Toronto over Detroit, but not by much.

Who has the better "Organization"? Detroit over Toronto, by a bunch.

Who has the better "NHL Caliber Team"? Detroit over Toronto, by a bunch.

Which situation would I rather be in as an NHL fan? Detroit over Toronto, by a bunch.

Enough said!!!!

 

[embracedbias]

Who has the better "Prospect Pool"? Toronto over Detroit, but not by much.

Who has the better "Organization"? Detroit over Toronto, by a bunch.

Who has the better "NHL Caliber Team"? Detroit over Toronto, by a bunch.

Which situation would I rather be in as an NHL fan? Detroit over Toronto, by a bunch.

Enough said!!!!

Prospect pool is Toronto over Detroit by a bunch.

If you limited your "better organization" to the past 20 years then you'd have a case.

At any rate, it'll be interesting to see what happens to Detroit once Lidstrom retires. They miraculously got out of the first wave of retirements on the backs of Zetterberg and Datsyuk. We'll see what happens this time around.

Worth noting that we're comparing one of the oldest teams in the league with one of the youngest:

Justin Abdelkader - 24
Todd Bertuzzi - 36
Danny Cleary - 32
Pavel Datsyuk - 33
Patrick Eaves - 27
Valtteri Filppula - 27
Johan Franzen - 31
Darren Helm - 24
Tomas Holmstrom - 38
Jiri Hudler - 27
Drew Miller - 27
Jan Mursak - 23
Henrik Zetterberg - 30

Mike Commodore - 31
Jonathan Ericsson - 27
Jakub Kindl - 24
Niklas Kronwall - 30
Nicklas Lidstrom - 41
Brad Stuart - 31
Ian White - 27

Ty Conklin - 35
Jimmy Howard - 27

vs.

Colby Armstrong - 28
Tyler Bozak - 25
Mike Brown - 26
Tim Connolly - 30
Philippe Dupuis - 26
Mikhail Grabovski - 27
Nazem Kadri - 20
Phil Kessel - 23
Nikolai Kulemin - 25
Matthew Lombardi - 29
Joffrey Lupul - 27
Clarke MacArthur - 26
Colton Orr - 29

Keith Aulie - 22
Cody Franson - 24
Carl Gunnarsson - 24
Mike Komisarek - 29
John-Michael Liles - 30
Dion Phaneuf - 26
Luke Schenn - 21

Jonas Gustavsson - 26
James Reimer - 23


Detroit Average
Forwards: 29.2 y/o
Defense: 30.1 y/o
Goalie: 31 y/o
Overall: 29.6 y/o

Toronto Average
Forwards: 26.2 y/o
Defense: 25.1 y/o
Goalie: 24.5 y/o
Overall: 25.7 y/o

 

[newfy]

I'll just re-post this because you clearly didn't understand it.

What you dont understand apparently is that the wings over ripen all their prospects.

Yeah they can survive without having those prospects on their team but Detroit this year would be a better team with Smith in the lineup over Commodore or Kindl.

They choose not to bring him up because they think it is better for his long term development.

Most teams in the NHL would take a guy of this calibre and play him. Not all teams do this to the extent Detroit does

 

[RedMachine87]

Given your first comment, I am surprised at your second. What I wrote was pertinent to the discussion and did not warrant a rude comment.

Lol sorry. I was probably projecting a bit. I'm just tired of reading the same old "Detroit's drafting is so overrated bs..." It may not be the mythical success it's sometimes made out to be, but it is by no means sub par.