Speculation: William Karlsson/VGK salary arbitration filings Player ask: $6.5M Team offer: $3.5

[Spectra]

The only players with reasonable asks and willing to take discounts for the good of their team are Swedes. Some smart GM should build an all Swede team, that team would be a Cup contender for a long time.

 

[Stuzchuk]

No team is going to give him that much money for 1 season of success.

exactly... his previous best was 9 goals on middle 6 minutes (but 0 PP time) in CBJ. Thats a 477% jump in Goals, so no I wouldnt give him 7Mx8yrs

 

[GKG18]

Maybe VGK made such a low offer that the Arbitrator HAS to go with the players ask. I assume they don't know what the ask is going to be before they make their number available. There is simply no doubt that GMGM want Karlsson and will extend him barring a complete disaster of a season. To me, the whole arbitration road that they are taking is an analytical hedge against the impulse to lock up a potential PPG 1C without taking any risk. Karlsson and his agent are well aware of this.

 

[super6646]

I would offer 5.5 for 6 years. Yes there is a lot of risk, but your likely gonna regret not signing him long term if he continues to produce as a #1 center.

 

[DRW204]

If Wild Bill regresses to a 55-60 pt 2-way force and perennial lady byng monster( ), 6Mish would be a fair deal.

 

[Connor McConnor]

He should take a 2 year bridge around 4.75-5.25m and then hit it big. If he does it again next year he'd probably get an extension for $7m+

 

[Pinkfloyd]

exactly... his previous best was 9 goals on middle 6 minutes (but 0 PP time) in CBJ. Thats a 477% jump in Goals, so no I wouldnt give him 7Mx8yrs

I wouldn't give him 8 years at 7 mil. I think Vegas is handling this appropriately if Karlsson isn't willing to take a one year deal at whatever amount. Whatever the result of this arbitration is, Vegas will opt for the one year contract to keep him restricted next year and pay him appropriately for the two seasons he'd have with Vegas in his current role. The only number that is unsustainable with Karlsson is the shooting percentage. Even at league average, he's still a 20 goal scorer and a 55 point player with quality defensive ability. That's still going to get him an 8 year, 56 mil contract after this next season unless he legitimately falls to 20 goals this year which I doubt occurs. I don't expect him to stay at 23.4% shooting but 14 or 15% still puts him in the 23-28 range.

 

[Henkka]

exactly... his previous best was 9 goals on middle 6 minutes (but 0 PP time) in CBJ. Thats a 477% jump in Goals, so no I wouldnt give him 7Mx8yrs

If you combine his 2-season totals, he's on the ballpark of Duchene and Landeskog. 0.63 points per game players. 5.5M and 6.0M.

That's the ballpark.

 

[ijuka]

Wow, he's asking very little.

The team's offer is honestly insulting. That's been established to be 4th liner money. He's not that bad.

 

[DRW204]

Anyone check to see whose pajamas he wore as a kid?

He's been a life-long Vegas fan brah

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Ive never seen someone be more undervalued/underrated in a thread before

This is a bizzare thread to read thru

 

[McDonald19]

A 2 year deal would take him right to UFA, so IMO it's either going to be a 1 year deal, or a long term extension.

Agreed: 1 year 5 mil and a giant extension next Summer if he has another good season.

 

[lwvs84]

I know if you sign a UFA you have to wait until later in the season to re-sign them (January?), but say WK gets a 1 year arb deal and the sides agree to a contract in like 2 months, can he sign a long term deal with them since he was with the team last year or does he have to wait?

 

[olli]

I know if you sign a UFA you have to wait until later in the season to re-sign them (January?), but say WK gets a 1 year arb deal and the sides agree to a contract in like 2 months, can he sign a long term deal with them since he was with the team last year or does he have to wait?

Pretty sure they couldn't extend him until January.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

One of those situations where his ask is pretty realistic for the type of player he is

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

Why are people acting like paying a guy well after 1 EXTREMELY unbelievable season is so rare and bad idea? Have u guys not been watching the contracts being handed out the past few years? There are players getting paid massively pretty much on potential alone nowadays(without having had a huge season.. Or an impressive partial season only).. WK showed what he can do last season and was a huge reason his team was in the SC finals..

Like cmon, he is getting paid massively and he 100% deserves it

You mean like Tom Wilson? Lol.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

since when do we look at the old seasons of a player and not his current season or his playoffs amazing performance ?
god, you don't make any sense it's pathetic and I don't even know where to start.

Marchesseault got 5,5M for 65 goals on 201 NHL games (which was clearly deserved) ? was it a "mistake'' from your pov ?
Tom wilson ? 5.2M after 1 season.

why would he even take a discount for his early prospects season ? you also tend to forget that he is still young.


please enlighten me, lmao.


EDIT: ohhh you are a columbus fan that is why LOL.

Lets start with this, i'm a Hawks fan.

Kinda dumb to compare Marchy's contract to him.

Marchessault last 2 seasons; 57 goals, 126 points, completely different thing wouldn't you agree?
- also Marchessault was a beast in the juniors, so you would expect something to this nature
from him, where as Karlsson... couldn't even score goals in the AHL.

His 40+ goals was mostly result of Knights system,tactics, not because he is a amazing player per say
Marchessault helped him a lot as well, so did Riley Smith, Schmidt, Theodore, Miller and Tuch.

Not dissing Karlsson here, he had a really strong season, scored many many goals, he surely knows how to
score goals (even thou couldn't much before) but most likely he will not repeat his 40+ goal season.

3,5 is the real money for him and George McPhee knows this, he shouldn't change his mind
and give more money than that, if an agreement cannot be made...then, so be it.

 

[Magnus the Duck]

His 40+ goals was mostly result of Knights system,tactics, not because he is a amazing player per say Marchessault helped him a lot as well, so did Riley Smith, Schmidt, Theodore, Miller and Tuch.

It's pretty obvious you didn't watch many VGK games. William Karlsson was a great player last year, created a lot by himself and helped Marchessault and Smith a lot too.

 

[gwh]

Thanks for Tuch AND Haula.

Instead of Staal or Dumba? Thank the league for the draft. your GM even dropped the ball taking Tuch instead of Kaprizov.

Still failed, LV fans just don't know the players yet.

So

 

[gwh]

Yeah... but he scored from the High-Danger area mostly.

Drop his shooting percentage to 16%-18% and he would score 30-33 goals.

That's still damn good.

If all WK's shots would be from high danger areas, his theoretical maximum sh% between 15% and 20%. On the otherhand, the king of short range hack Hornqvist has career shooting 9.6%.

I d think WK's floor could be 25goals on 1st line with PP, which is still worth 6mil a year. Arbitration works in both parties favor here. WK gets paid next summer, while LV gets reduced risk from seeing another season of WK.

Worst case:

2019 summer WK is a 26yo Selke finalist with 35 goal season. He should get the Kopitar at 14% or 11mil until 35 yo with NMC and the works.

 

[Aurinko]

Looking at the historical stats, there are not many cases where a 43 goal scorer would have gone below 25 goals the next season.

As discussed previously his strength doesn't necessarily lie barely on scoring. He has elite class defensive skills and balanced 5v5 game:

 

[airbus220]

Instead of Staal or Dumba? Thank the league for the draft. your GM even dropped the ball taking Tuch instead of Kaprizov.

Still failed, LV fans just don't know the players yet.

So

Stall is 34 soon. Haula is 27, Tuch just became 22.

Haula and Tuch together had 9 goals, 19 points in the playoffs.
Stall 1 goal, 2 points.

Kaprizov, how would he have helped in the playoffs?

Dumba wasn't needed. Vegas got their D elsewhere.

When was it that MIN reached the finals?

 

[airbus220]

As discussed previously his strength doesn't necessarily lie barely on scoring.

Still, Karlsson started the season on the 3rd line playing with Leipsic who was waived later.

 

[neXis]

Vegas is smart for not initially wanting to overpay him. I don't think he will repeat the 40 goal season. Probably around 20-25 goals is where he fits. He isn't worth $6.5m, $4.5m is fair for him.

 

[Iceman]

$6.5 seems reasonable for someone scoring 43 goals, besides, all young players sign a long term deal after 1 good year (that wasn't quite as good as W. Karlsson's) so I don't see why this should be any different.