Dubas is caught between a rock and hard place between his own public stance on proving he can win with 1/2 your cap invested on 4F, and also desperately needing a major upgrade on D to save his own job so adding AP addresses a vital need on defense.
The plan to add Pietrangelo on this board seems to be trade Kapanen $3.2 mil (done), Kerfoot $3.5 mil , Johnsson $3.4 mil for futures and use those 3 combined forwards cap recapture to afford to sign AP. We don't yet know if this our GM's strategy as well, but we do know he has shopped/listened to offers on AJ and Kerfoot, because Dubas went public saying he was getting good offers for them and they have value.
We haven't seen any appetite to trade Marner/Nylander and "We can and we will" is almost a defiance position to suggest that is not on the table as a viable option to fit AP.
Bolded for truth...He signed these big deals -- and trading any one of them would be admitting a wrongdoing.
Ultimately, if the Leafs are going to sign Pietrangelo, I do believe you are correct. It will be AJ and Kerfoot that are on the way out -- maybe Andersen to get a guy that makes $1m less.
They'll backfill the roster with talent near league minimum, and this year, and to Kyle Dubas' credit, this year, it actually may be a viable strategy. Teams are going to be hesitant to give guys contracts for this year until we have a start date and projection of how many fans will be in the stands -- especially guys in that 28-32 year old age. They may be able to approach a guy who was hoping for $2.5m before the pandemic, now hoping for $1.5m, to take a $200k signing bonus and sign for $1m. I'm sure that is part of the thought consideration with Evan Rodrigues.
The question / challenge is what happens beyond this year. Presumably we will be in an economic recovery next offseason, so the mid-level salaries will rise; but the cap will not. The same condition may be true the year after, and then you have Morgan Rielly up for a new deal.
Obviously, if they move Johnsson & Kerfoot in pure futures deals, they will have stocked themselves up pretty well in terms of talent coming in... which should help beyond this season... but relying entirely on ELCs doesn't seem like the best idea, certainly not when you consider that your real need is for role players -- not some young kid with a bunch of talent to provide some secondary/tertiary scoring.
Ultimately, signing AP will likely force the trade / release of one of Marner, Nylander, or Rielly in the next 2 years. I think you objectively have to ask yourself -- if that's the case, is it really the best idea?
Yes, he's free, but would they not be better served backing up some metaphorical brinks truck to the Carolina Hurricanes and getting Brett Pesce locked up for 4 years at $4m?