Agreed, the drop off from 11 to say 18 -20 range is noticeable. Unless we've uber scouted someone who no one else thinks is a top 10 player but we do...which I doubt. At 11 we will get a good player and potentially elite if someone above us reaches. You don't pass that up with your prospect pool is thin.
Yes we could find a gem in the second round with the extra pick, but so many ASSUME just because some teams find players like Shea Weber, doesn't mean we will. So many people make that comment " look how many great dmen are found in the second round!"
People don't look at the odds of a second rounder becoming a NHL'er however - that's only 34%. And of that 34% that's simply playing 99 games in the NHL in his career, not being an every day player, and certainly not an impact player.
So you're betting on a less than a coin flip. Many don't realize this and point to outliers like Weber as their rationale.
Also lottery picks have a 75% chance of playing > 99 games in the NHL, You drop lower than 15 and you lose 10% of that down to 65%. And again you're getting only 35% odds on the second rounder.
So do you take 10% less odds of a player being an NHL'er to gain another pick with only 35% odds? to me I said no way. That's stupid. It's also why the Canucks probably don't care too much of second round picks, because they are low odds darts, but are seemingly valued by teams alot.
Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to
dobberprospects.com