Speculation: Will the 11th Overall Pick be traded ?

[RandV]

I'm stating the fact that the last decade or so every year there's people saying the team will be better but it almost never turned out to be true. I did not blame the current management for a decade of failure. Stop misinterpreting my post and make up your own bullshit.

You're still making a major false equivalency here. First its kind of a pointless statement because while you're indicating the last 10 years really for any team in any given year you're going to find fans who are positive or negative on their chances in their upcoming season.

More to the point though, during Benning's time here the vast majority of the HF Canucks board recognized he was terrible while on the other hand there was always a small group of die hard Benning fans. It's not like they were going "the teams going to be good this season!" ever year though, through a good chunk of time the Benning bros thought he was doing a great job "rebuilding" and that signing players like Beagle & Roussel would have a positive impact on the kids.

With Benning gone though, the Benning bros have more or less dispersed. What you have on the board is the remaining larger group splitting in opinion on whether the team should be rebuilding more, whether long term or short, or if they're supportive/okay/accepting the actual management direction of trying to build around the young core they have. This is most certainly not the 'same thing happening again and again'. Among the people more supportive of the current direction you also don't see people with the same blind Benning bro faith that the team is going to do awesome.

Blackjack isn't purely random either. Them walls are high and wide for a reason.

Technically I'd say it is, just if you're discarding cards as they're played it gets less random as you play if you can keep an idea on whats in the discard pile and whats left to play.

 

[valkynax]

You're still making a major false equivalency here. First its kind of a pointless statement because while you're indicating the last 10 years really for any team in any given year you're going to find fans who are positive or negative on their chances in their upcoming season.

More to the point though, during Benning's time here the vast majority of the HF Canucks board recognized he was terrible while on the other hand there was always a small group of die hard Benning fans. It's not like they were going "the teams going to be good this season!" ever year though, through a good chunk of time the Benning bros thought he was doing a great job "rebuilding" and that signing players like Beagle & Roussel would have a positive impact on the kids.

With Benning gone though, the Benning bros have more or less dispersed. What you have on the board is the remaining larger group splitting in opinion on whether the team should be rebuilding more, whether long term or short, or if they're supportive/okay/accepting the actual management direction of trying to build around the young core they have. This is most certainly not the 'same thing happening again and again'. Among the people more supportive of the current direction you also don't see people with the same blind Benning bro faith that the team is going to do awesome.


Technically I'd say it is, just if you're discarding cards as they're played it gets less random as you play if you can keep an idea on whats in the discard pile and whats left to play.

Fair enough, I'll see what the team can do next year. Until then, I'm gonna hang on to my skepticism.

 

[HairyKneel]

Oh but NOOOO, according to the poster's logic unless you're singing praises for our management, any criticism or doubts, and I mean ANYTHING even the slightest bit negative means you're blaming last decade of failure on Skeletor and Moleman, and you can't do that! You gonna hurt people's feewings by being a negative Nancy!

Maybe come with better burns than than Skeletor, Moleman and JEB.

 

[valkynax]

Maybe come with better burns than than Skeletor, Moleman and JEB.

JEB is just that I don't ever want to say his name again. Skeletor yeah could use some work.

But come on now, Moleman is the perfect name!

 

[CanucksSayEh]

Skeletor is built like the terminator.

 

[VancouverJagger]

I dont know. 11.5 & 7 - 7.5 seems likely to me.

There is zero incentive to take a paycut to stay here. Its not like we are in a contention window. Its more likely we will need to overpay to keep players until there is at least a somewhat clear path to becoming a contender.

Hronek aint' getting 7.5 no way...........he's not gonna get the PP time to get enough points to warrant that here. I see 6-6.5 ish........7.5 is a doomsday prediction that won't happen unless Hughes gets hurt and he takes over that #1 PP D spot for a long stretch this year.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

If Hronek is in the 7.5M range that means he played really well and we should be happy about having that player. I wouldn't take that as a loss would be able to find room for a 7.5M dman that we desperately need.

But cant afford.

Hronek aint' getting 7.5 no way...........he's not gonna get the PP time to get enough points to warrant that here. I see 6-6.5 ish........7.5 is a doomsday prediction that won't happen unless Hughes gets hurt and he takes over that #1 PP D spot for a long stretch this year.

So... I am saying 7-7.5 You are saying 6-6.5

That .5 makes my prediction "doomsday" somehow...?

 

[strattonius]

But cant afford.

I think wed be able to afford Hronek if he's 7.5. A lot of movement by next off season will happen. Myers, Beauvillier off the books. Boeser with 1 yr left. If OEL sucks this year potential buy out. The CAP is speculated to go up this year and probably the year after. Like it's literally impossible to predict but unable to afford Hronek at 7.5 is a pretty unlikely scenario.

 

[timw33]

Justin Faulk's 7 year 6.5MM seems like a pretty decent comparable for Hronek, although Faulk's goals/game rate was far higher and he blocks almost 3x the amount of shots.

 

[Ninjadude]

Nucks need some good players on Entry Level Contracts... Hronek is an example of us jumping the gun and forcing the team to jettison players at a low value. Teams know the nucks have payroll issues and no one is going to help them out for free.

 

[Petey But Really Jim]

Nucks need some good players on Entry Level Contracts... Hronek is an example of us jumping the gun and forcing the team to jettison players at a low value. Teams know the nucks have payroll issues and no one is going to help them out for free.

Did you write this out four years ago or does it just seem like it? It’s deja vu all over again.

 

[VanJack]

If some team like the Hawks or Wings came along offering a first round pick in the 18-20 range along with a second rounder for the Canucks 11th overall pick, you'd have to at least consider it wouldn't you?

I think what bothers me most about the Hronek deal is that it also cost the Canucks their second round draft pick in a deep draft.

 

[VintageBure]

Pretty dark days lads... hard to remain a fan. Its like 29 out of 32 teams are legitimately trying to win the Stanley cup and we are just there...

 

[strattonius]

If some team like the Hawks or Wings came along offering a first round pick in the 18-20 range along with a second rounder for the Canucks 11th overall pick, you'd have to at least consider it wouldn't you?

I think what bothers me most about the Hronek deal is that it also cost the Canucks their second round draft pick in a deep draft.

I think we'll have a consensus very high player drop to us at 11. Make the pick.

The 19-25 range you're hoping that a consensus 15 drops to you. The prospects are starting to be even harder to predict and are much more likely to not amount to much. So even 2 of those players is not worth the 11. Not close to me.

 

[Ninjadude]

Did you write this out four years ago or does it just seem like it? It’s deja vu all over again.

I think I write this every year! Different management group but same mentality…win now!

 

[AlainVigneaultsGum]

Inb4 11 for Carter Hart

 

[Petey But Really Jim]

I think I write this every year! Different management group but same mentality…win now!

It’s the Miller trade but with a quarter of the affordable years.

Pretty dark days lads... hard to remain a fan. Its like 29 out of 32 teams are legitimately trying to win the Stanley cup and we are just there...

The Vancouver Canucks: Just There

 

[CanucksSayEh]

If some team like the Hawks or Wings came along offering a first round pick in the 18-20 range along with a second rounder for the Canucks 11th overall pick, you'd have to at least consider it wouldn't you?

I think what bothers me most about the Hronek deal is that it also cost the Canucks their second round draft pick in a deep draft.

The Depth really just refers to the top players, early in the 1st round. After that, nobody knows shit about f***.

If Hronek comes as hoped, then we got a bargain. RD's just aren't up for grabs these days.

 

[Nuckster]

The Depth really just refers to the top players, early in the 1st round. After that, nobody knows shit about f***.

If Hronek comes as hoped, then we got a bargain. RD's just aren't up for grabs these days.

Agreed, the drop off from 11 to say 18 -20 range is noticeable. Unless we've uber scouted someone who no one else thinks is a top 10 player but we do...which I doubt. At 11 we will get a good player and potentially elite if someone above us reaches. You don't pass that up with your prospect pool is thin.

Yes we could find a gem in the second round with the extra pick, but so many ASSUME just because some teams find players like Shea Weber, doesn't mean we will. So many people make that comment " look how many great dmen are found in the second round!"

People don't look at the odds of a second rounder becoming a NHL'er however - that's only 34%. And of that 34% that's simply playing 99 games in the NHL in his career, not being an every day player, and certainly not an impact player.

So you're betting on a less than a coin flip. Many don't realize this and point to outliers like Weber as their rationale.

Also lottery picks have a 75% chance of playing > 99 games in the NHL, You drop lower than 15 and you lose 10% of that down to 65%. And again you're getting only 35% odds on the second rounder.

So do you take 10% less odds of a player being an NHL'er to gain another pick with only 35% odds? to me I said no way. That's stupid. It's also why the Canucks probably don't care too much of second round picks, because they are low odds darts, but are seemingly valued by teams alot.

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

 

[Raistlin]

Inb4 11 for Carter Hart

or Lafreniere on one of their vintage shortcut age gap trades.

 

[Nuckster]

or Lafreniere on one of their vintage shortcut age gap trades.

If you could get a center of Lafrenierre's age and pedigree, you'd have to consider it heavily. Laffreniere I would consider as well. He's only 21 and got 39 pts last year with little PP time. There's alot more there.

Are we guaranteed to even get an NHL'er from 11th? Maybe a star, maybe a flop, maybe something in between.

Its not so simple I would argue.

 

[Raistlin]

If you could get a center of Lafrenierre's age and pedigree, you'd have to consider it heavily. Laffreniere I would consider as well. He's only 21 and got 39 pts last year with little PP time. There's alot more there.

Are we guaranteed to even get an NHL'er from 11th? Maybe a star, maybe a flop, maybe something in between.

Its not so simple I would argue.

If the Canucks don't try to develop him, theres a very good chance whoever is there at 11 will be an NHLer.

 

[Nuckster]

If the Canucks don't try to develop him, theres a very good chance whoever is there at 11 will be an NHLer.

Lol fair enough. But its still a crap shoot. I'll take a proven 22 year old NHL 40 pt player who's got first overall pedigree and has upside still vs a dice roll. It's not like we're trading him for Sven Baerschi. This kid has elite talent.

My only issue with AL is he's a winger. We have too many but I still think he's worth the 11th.

 

[CanucksSayEh]

Hoglander as a teenager was twice the player Laf is now. Unless he's free, hard pass.

 

[Nuckster]

Hoglander as a teenager was twice the player Laf is now. Unless he's free, hard pass.

Dude come on man. Hogs was in the AHL. Love the guy and think / hope he can parlay his success in abby to Van this year and keep it going but he's not better than Laf.

And I will be more than happy to be wrong when their careers are over but I wouldn't bet on that being the case.