Speculation: Will the 11th Overall Pick be traded ?

[CanucksSayEh]

Dude come on man. Hogs was in the AHL. Love the guy and think / hope he can parlay his success in abby to Van this year and keep it going but he's not better than Laf.

And I will be more than happy to be wrong when their careers are over but I wouldn't bet on that being the case.

Meh, switch their draft positions and it's Laf in the A. Hoggy was jerked around here all year, but he showed more as a rookie than Laf ever has. I wouldn't make that trade straight up. Hogs is a beauty skater, Laf just lugs around.

 

[Nuckster]

Meh, switch their draft positions and it's Laf in the A. Hoggy was jerked around here all year, but he showed more as a rookie than Laf ever has. I wouldn't make that trade straight up. Hogs is a beauty skater, Laf just lugs around.

I haven't watched Laff enough but I was under the impression he was a good skater. First overall and huge points in Junior, I assumed he could skate.

 

[Petey But Really Jim]

Agreed, the drop off from 11 to say 18 -20 range is noticeable. Unless we've uber scouted someone who no one else thinks is a top 10 player but we do...which I doubt. At 11 we will get a good player and potentially elite if someone above us reaches. You don't pass that up with your prospect pool is thin.

Yes we could find a gem in the second round with the extra pick, but so many ASSUME just because some teams find players like Shea Weber, doesn't mean we will. So many people make that comment " look how many great dmen are found in the second round!"

People don't look at the odds of a second rounder becoming a NHL'er however - that's only 34%. And of that 34% that's simply playing 99 games in the NHL in his career, not being an every day player, and certainly not an impact player.

So you're betting on a less than a coin flip. Many don't realize this and point to outliers like Weber as their rationale.

Also lottery picks have a 75% chance of playing > 99 games in the NHL, You drop lower than 15 and you lose 10% of that down to 65%. And again you're getting only 35% odds on the second rounder.

So do you take 10% less odds of a player being an NHL'er to gain another pick with only 35% odds? to me I said no way. That's stupid. It's also why the Canucks probably don't care too much of second round picks, because they are low odds darts, but are seemingly valued by teams alot.

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Meh, switch their draft positions and it's Laf in the A. Hoggy was jerked around here all year, but he showed more as a rookie than Laf ever has. I wouldn't make that trade straight up. Hogs is a beauty skater, Laf just lugs around.

He is slower than average..I think that there is considerable doubt that he will ever be a first line player..Doesnt really have a standout skill, and did nothing in the playoffs.

Because he was picked 1st OA, his name does carry some kind of premium..If he continues at this trajectory, he'll probably be traded for a 2nd next season.