Speculation: Will Petry be traded before the season starts?

[ML16]

BUF, CBJ and CHI would be my top 3 guess all have cap space and near Michigan…

Trading Petry (and/or DeSmith) to Buffalo shouldn’t be complex cap-wise, with or even without retention; the Sabres have about 7M available and could send an expiring UFA under 3M AAV (Lyubushkin or Jokiharju) to alleviate the salary differential.

In the same spirit, Columbus has about 5.5M left and trading Petry to Ohio would likely require a NHL contract coming back, even with Petry @ 2.35M ; likely Bean (2.3M, RFA 2024) or - more ambitiously - Boqvist (2.6M, RFA 2025). If Petry’s traded with retention, Columbus could also maybe take DeSmith has well?

Chicago has ample cap space to pull the trigger with or without retention; Zaitsev (4.5M, UFA 2024) looks like the swap candidate if Petry’s traded without retention.

If I also add Dallas to the list; the Stars are at about 300K over the cap with a 23-men roster. Moving Petry would thus likely entail retention, since the swap candidates are Hakanpaa (1.5M, UFA 2024) or maybe Suter (3.6M, UFA 2025). In the latter’s case, the return would have to be prohibitive, unless Suter lands to a third party from the outset.

Finally, as for the potential incentives in each scenario:

- Buffalo : Besides Lyubushkin to sell at TDL 2024 and 4.7M in cap space next year, I could see the Habs gaining a 2nd round pick maybe more, if DeSmith’s involved as well.

- Columbus: Boqvist has much more value than Lyubushkin/Zaitsev, so it’s a different dynamic than with Buffalo or Chicago. Would be the choice most reminiscent of the Petry+ vs Matheson+ trade last year.

- Chicago: Besides Zaitsev to sell at TDL 2024 and 4.7M in cap space next year, I could see the Habs gaining a 2nd round pick since Chicago could use Petry’s experience for 18 months and then sell him with retention at TDL 2025 to further their rebuild.

- Dallas: A 3-way deal involving Petry with retention to Dallas and Suter passing through Montreal and landing to a third party would be awesome. Even if the Habs have to split the spoils with a third wheel, getting out of a veteran D contract to make room for a younger defenseman, all the while gaining at least a 2nd for cap space rental.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Well that's obvious but it's option B bud. I think Hughes talked to other GM's before agreeing to the trade. I'm 75/25 he gets traded.

If the deal is decent why not?

If such a deal is not on the table, we play him, simple.

Trading Petry (and/or DeSmith) to Buffalo shouldn’t be complex cap-wise, with or even without retention; the Sabres have about 7M available and could send an expiring UFA under 3M AAV (Lyubushkin or Jokiharju) to alleviate the salary differential.

In the same spirit, Columbus has about 5.5M left and trading Petry to Ohio would likely require a NHL contract coming back, even with Petry @ 2.35M ; likely Bean (2.3M, RFA 2024) or - more ambitiously - Boqvist (2.6M, RFA 2025). If Petry’s traded with retention, Columbus could also maybe take DeSmith has well?

Chicago has ample cap space to pull the trigger with or without retention; Zaitsev (4.5M, UFA 2024) looks like the swap candidate if Petry’s traded without retention.

If I also add Dallas to the list; the Stars are at about 300K over the cap with a 23-men roster. Moving Petry would thus likely entail retention, since the swap candidates are Hakanpaa (1.5M, UFA 2024) or maybe Suter (3.6M, UFA 2025). In the latter’s case, the return would have to be prohibitive, unless Suter lands to a third party from the outset.

Finally, as for the potential incentives in each scenario:

- Buffalo : Besides Lyubushkin to sell at TDL 2024 and 4.7M in cap space next year, I could see the Habs gaining a 2nd round pick maybe more, if DeSmith’s involved as well.

- Columbus: Boqvist has much more value than Lyubushkin/Zaitsev, so it’s a different dynamic than with Buffalo or Chicago. Would be the choice most reminiscent of the Petry+ vs Matheson+ trade last year.

- Chicago: Besides Zaitsev to sell at TDL 2024 and 4.7M in cap space next year, I could see the Habs gaining a 2nd round pick since Chicago could use Petry’s experience for 18 months and then sell him with retention at TDL 2025 to further their rebuild.

- Dallas: A 3-way deal involving Petry with retention to Dallas and Suter passing through Montreal and landing to a third party would be awesome. Even if the Habs have to split the spoils with a third wheel, getting out of a veteran D contract to make room for a younger defenseman, all the while gaining at least a 2nd for cap space rental.

I don't think Hughes is retaining 50% on Petry this year and next.

 

[Rapala]

I'm not so sure we have plans of keeping Petry though. Very curious to know what they are planning because our D is cluttered.

Petry is 35/36 this season and 36/37 next season. He has value but it could get worse if you wait. Do you think we use him in high usage if we keep him?

First of all we didn't go from picking up a waiver wire player last season to being cluttered at RD. Secondly Petry at 35-36 will be better than Kovacevik period. So if we need to move something Kovacevik is an easy out. How is the idea of getting better now while waiting on prospects to develop at the lower levels not a plan? TDL this season or TDL next season does not stymie us at all. Paranoia that he will suddenly fall off a cliff or will get injured is not how GM's think. Petry's mobility will keep him playing at a decent level for the next two seasons. Don't forget we are the ones who gave him the contract to begin with. Did we have any doubts then because we gave him 6.25M for the four years. I don't see Hughes giving him away for nothing and I also don't see Hughes retaining to move him now. If there was no covid we would currently have Petry on our roster at 6.25M. No Hoffman No Pitlick and Petry at a reduced rate is not the problem some are making it out to be.

 

[The Real Timo]

After 4 kids she's still looking like that? I like Julie Petry!!!

Make 'em stay

A special photo of Julie Petry with a current Habs forward is igniting the web and makes us love Jeff's return even more

While many believe that defenseman Jeff Petry had definitively ruled out anything related to the Montreal Canadiens

www.habsfanatics.com

 

[Le Barron de HF]

If the deal is decent why not?

If such a deal is not on the table, we play him, simple.


I don't think Hughes is retaining 50% on Petry this year and next.

What makes you adamant about that? I know it hasn't been done but it's mostly because opportunity hasn't arise. It's not like the salary component is a huge element given how his contract is structured and how signing bonus was already paid for.
In the upcoming two seasons here are the players where retaining might be necessary or beneficial to improve value:
Dvorak
Allen
Savard (next year)
Armia
Monahan (overkill IMO)

Given we have two left for this season, I don't think it handcuffs team as much especially with Hoffman shot out of a cannon who would have definitely required retention at TDL

 

[BaseballCoach]

What makes you adamant about that? I know it hasn't been done but it's mostly because opportunity hasn't arise. It's not like the salary component is a huge element given how his contract is structured and how signing bonus was already paid for.
In the upcoming two seasons here are the players where retaining might be necessary or beneficial to improve value:
Dvorak
Allen
Savard (next year)
Armia
Monahan (overkill IMO)

Given we have two left for this season, I don't think it handcuffs team as much especially with Hoffman shot out of a cannon who would have definitely required retention at TDL

Hughes is on record as saying he won't retain for multiple years. I'm not the one adamant, he is, but I do agree with him.

 

[Le Barron de HF]

Hughes is on record as saying he won't retain for multiple years. I'm not the one adamant, he is, but I do agree with him.

I must have missed that quote, my bad. Do you recall around what time this was discussed?

 

[BaseballCoach]

I must have missed that quote, my bad. Do you recall around what time this was discussed?

Press conferences, more than once.

 

[BaseballCoach]

What makes you adamant about that? I know it hasn't been done but it's mostly because opportunity hasn't arise. It's not like the salary component is a huge element given how his contract is structured and how signing bonus was already paid for.
In the upcoming two seasons here are the players where retaining might be necessary or beneficial to improve value:
Dvorak
Allen
Savard (next year)
Armia
Monahan (overkill IMO)

Given we have two left for this season, I don't think it handcuffs team as much especially with Hoffman shot out of a cannon who would have definitely required retention at TDL

Hughes has been a bulldog in avoiding long-term cap bloat. Retaining in future seasons is not a strategy to be emplyed if the goal is to maximize cap space.

People wanted Hughes to retain on Petry last year, but he did not. Everyone wanted retention on Hoffman, and he avoided it. Retention, and buyouts, come at a cost of dead space. It's best to avoid that, unless it is to complete a season wwhere you are not competing and donM't need to acquire assets at the TDL.

 

[Le Barron de HF]

Hughes has been a bulldog in avoiding long-term cap bloat. Retaining in future seasons is not a strategy to be emplyed if the goal is to maximize cap space.

People wanted Hughes to retain on Petry last year, but he did not. Everyone wanted retention on Hoffman, and he avoided it. Retention, and buyouts, come at a cost of dead space. It's best to avoid that, unless it is to complete a season wwhere you are not competing and donM't need to acquire assets at the TDL.

I agree with you but the cap space is not crucial this season nor the next with how Hughes has structured his contracts unless they plan on making a big splash in Free Agency (and even then trading all/some of the guys I listed would help out there). Retaining on Petry last year would have been quite commitment, this year not so much.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I agree with you but the cap space is not crucial this season nor the next with how Hughes has structured his contracts unless they plan on making a big splash in Free Agency (and even then trading all/some of the guys I listed would help out there). Retaining on Petry last year would have been quite commitment, this year not so much.

It seems that Hughes has not yet given up on 2024-25 and has not opened the door yet to dead cap space beyond this year.

 

[BaseballCoach]

First of all we didn't go from picking up a waiver wire player last season to being cluttered at RD. Secondly Petry at 35-36 will be better than Kovacevik period. So if we need to move something Kovacevik is an easy out. How is the idea of getting better now while waiting on prospects to develop at the lower levels not a plan? TDL this season or TDL next season does not stymie us at all. Paranoia that he will suddenly fall off a cliff or will get injured is not how GM's think. Petry's mobility will keep him playing at a decent level for the next two seasons. Don't forget we are the ones who gave him the contract to begin with. Did we have any doubts then because we gave him 6.25M for the four years. I don't see Hughes giving him away for nothing and I also don't see Hughes retaining to move him now. If there was no covid we would currently have Petry on our roster at 6.25M. No Hoffman No Pitlick and Petry at a reduced rate is not the problem some are making it out to be.

Concern: But will he take ice time from Kovacevic?

Answer: Yes, and that is just fine with me.

 

[DAChampion]

Concern: But will he take ice time from Kovacevic?

Answer: Yes, and that is just fine with me.

It's not really an issue as it seems like the Habs typically have one or two injuries on D at any given time.

But maybe HuGo wants those opportunities for spot duty for Struble, Mailloux, Trudeau, etc.

 

[JoelWarlord]

I don't think they'd be too cagey on retaining in this case. It made sense not to in the initial trade because we still didn't know about Price's health, didn't know how the Dubois situation would shake out, didn't want to lock that slot in for 3-4 years etc. but at this point I don't see a reason to be a stickler on retaining if it gets us a nice return for him.

Next summer we already have 10.6M in space (which would be a hair under 13M in space if we moved out Petry at 50% retention) with only Xhekaj, Barron, Montembeault, Ylonen, and maybe Monahan needing new contracts. That leaves more than enough space to make a big move next summer, and that's also assuming Dvorak and Anderson are still around which I don't think is likely.

 

[Le Barron de HF]

I don't think they'd be too cagey on retaining in this case. It made sense not to in the initial trade because we still didn't know about Price's health, didn't know how the Dubois situation would shake out, didn't want to lock that slot in for 3-4 years etc. but at this point I don't see a reason to be a stickler on retaining if it gets us a nice return for him.

Next summer we already have 10.6M in space (which would be a hair under 13M in space if we moved out Petry at 50% retention) with only Xhekaj, Barron, Montembeault, Ylonen, and maybe Monahan needing new contracts. That leaves more than enough space to make a big move next summer, and that's also assuming Dvorak and Anderson are still around which I don't think is likely.

Let alone with salary cap likely to start going up to pre covid days.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

It seems that Hughes has not yet given up on 2024-25 and has not opened the door yet to dead cap space beyond this year.

I expect Hughes would only retain for multiple years if the return is worth it. 1st round pick or equivalent.

 

[Andy]

I am not sure if he will be traded before the start of the season, but I wouldnt be surprised if he was.

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

I am not sure if he will be traded before the start of the season, but I wouldnt be surprised if he was.

That's a pretty good Dreger impression you've got there

 

[BaseballCoach]

Let alone with salary cap likely to start going up to pre covid days.

Huh? What was the cap pre COVID?

 

[Le Barron de HF]

Huh? What was the cap pre COVID?

Sorry I meant increase of a few million a year rather than flat cap or small increase during pandemic. English ain't my first language so things don't always come out properly.

 

[CHfan1]

Let alone with salary cap likely to start going up to pre covid days.

I think that takes the cap going up into account (to $87.5 million, which is what capfriendly currently has for next season).

 

[Milhouse40]

I am not sure if he will be traded before the start of the season, but I wouldnt be surprised if he was.

That's kind of the beauty of this deal.

We don't even have one legit top 4 RHD, so we could use Petry and if we trade him, we're not worst than we were a week ago.

Win-win situation and depending how Petry feels about the situation, we can go either way.

 

[The Great Weal]

On the slight chance that he's still here when the season starts, I'm expecting Harris to get sent down and we roll with:

Guhle-Savard
Matheson-Petry
Xhekaj-Barron


Having Harris-Mailloux play 25 min a night in Laval might not be the worst thing, they could complement each other well. Harris has the high IQ and Mailloux has the high end tools.

 

[26Mats]

On the slight chance that he's still here when the season starts, I'm expecting Harris to get sent down and we roll with:

Guhle-Savard
Matheson-Petry
Xhekaj-Barron


Having Harris-Mailloux play 25 min a night in Laval might not be the worst thing, they could complement each other well. Harris has the high IQ and Mailloux has the high end tools.

For any one of Harris, Xhekaj, or Barron it would only help them long term to play 25 minutes in Laval. I think Xhekaj stays because no one else brings his physical presence. And then between Barron and Harris, I think Harris would stay because his game is much more polished. I think Barron would have more to gain by playing in the AHL. Barron was also drafted 2 years later than Harris.

 

[The Great Weal]

For any one of Harris, Xhekaj, or Barron it would only help them long term to play 25 minutes in Laval. I think Xhekaj stays because no one else brings his physical presence. And then between Barronnamd Harris, I think Harris would stay because his game is much more polished. I think Narronnwould have more to gain by playing in the AHL. Barron is also 2 years younger than Harris.

I just think that Harris being able to play on the left side makes more sense to send down to play with Mailloux. If Barron gets sent down he's playing the same role as Mailloux meaning we can't give both players 25+ min.