Will Ovechkin beat Gretzky in all-time goals?

[Fantomas]

Do these adjusted stats have the difference in sticks, skates, quality of ice etc etc in calculation? If not, it's no use.

The use is in adjusting for the value of a goal, which is completely valid. The more goals are scored in a league the less value you can assign to every goal scored. The fewer goals are scored the more value one can assign each goal.

It doesn't matter what sticks and skates are being used.

One thing that's not accounted are differences in ice time, and ice time has dropped as the league has gotten deeper across the board, which suggests that modern-era players may be underrated by adjusted stats.

 

[ItWasJustified]

We don't have to be intellectually dishonest. It is way harder to score goals now than it was in the 80s.

Athletes are also way more athletic today than they were in the 80s.

More use then comparing games that averaged 8+ goals per game to games with 5 goals per game and calling them equal. I get it, you miss old school hockey and that's fine, but the league is, as a whole, far more skilled today. Also Ovi is a better pure goal scorer, and likely will have more when all is said and done.

The only thing I miss with old school hockey is the violence. Of course the league is more skilled today and the talent is way more evenly spread. I don't even argue against that Ovechkin may be a better pure goal scorer than Gretzky either, but Gretzky was on a whole other level compared to his peers than Ovechkin is to his.

 

[Bedards Dad]

Athletes are also way more athletic today than they were in the 80s.
The only thing I miss with old school hockey is the violence. Of course the league is more skilled today and the talent is way more evenly spread. I don't even argue against that Ovechkin may be a better pure goal scorer than Gretzky either, but Gretzky was on a whole other level compared to his peers than Ovechkin is to his.

No one is arguing the delta in players. Gretzky was so far ahead of everyone else (not Mario), that sort of gap just doesn't happen anymore. 4th line guys today would be 2nd or maybe 1st line guys in the 80's.

 

[authentic]

39 year old Joe Thornton with two Steve Austin bionic knees might score 20 goals this year. I think today’s players can play a lot longer than they did in the past.

I truly think for Ovechkin it will come down to personal desire on how long he wants to play.

True, he should be good for over 30 every year until 40 unless injured or retired.

 

[authentic]

The use is in adjusting for the value of a goal, which is completely valid. The more goals are scored in a league the less value you can assign to every goal scored. The fewer goals are scored the more value one can assign each goal.

It doesn't matter what sticks and skates are being used.

One thing that's not accounted are differences in ice time, and ice time has dropped as the league has gotten deeper across the board, which suggests that modern-era players may be underrated by adjusted stats.

No, they definitely are. Gretzky regularly played around 30 minutes in the 80s and was double shifted against 4th lines who could hardly skate.

 

[Dondini]

The thing is I just can’t imagine ovechkin scoring less than 30 in a season until 40. Brett Hull was legit 30+ goal scorer in his 30s and the game just got harder to score as his career went on. Lots to adjust for. For ovy if anything it’s getting easier. That shot isn’t going anywhere. It basically comes down to health and how long he wants to play. If he plays till 39-40 and averages 70 games a season he’s gonna be right there.

Age 33- 55 goals
Age 34- 46 goals
Age 35- 43goals
Age-36 26 goals injury
Age 37- 37goals
Age 38- 32 goals
Age 39- 20 goals injury
Age- 40 29 goals

895 goals

Seems possible. Still way way less than a 50% chance but how many guys have you said it was possible?

In my opinion the two seasons after this is make or break for him if he’s gonna try and go for the record. Still young enough to put up big numbers considering what he is doing now. Has to average 40+ for the next two seasons.

My guess is just over 801

 

[BallardEra]

#650

 

[The Panther]

Gretzky regularly played around 30 minutes in the 80s

False. Gretzky never in his career averaged thirty minutes a game. He did once score fifty goals in half a season with two of those 4th-liners you refer to on his wing.

I don't really get the obsession this main board has with Gretzky. For a guy who you all want to discredit, you talk about him in every third thread.

Even most Gretzky fans don't consider him the best goal scorer in terms of career value (different when looking at five to seven seasons). Y'all should have more discussion of Ovechkin compared to Bobby Hull.

 

[Suntouchable13]

If that 04-05 season wasn't wiped out + some of the 12-13 season, he'd be at 700 by now. Then we'd be having a real serious convo about this.

 

[authentic]

False. Gretzky never in his career averaged thirty minutes a game. He did once score fifty goals in half a season with two of those 4th-liners you refer to on his wing.

I don't really get the obsession this main board has with Gretzky. For a guy who you all want to discredit, you talk about him in every third thread.

Even most Gretzky fans don't consider him the best goal scorer in terms of career value (different when looking at five to seven seasons). Y'all should have more discussion of Ovechkin compared to Bobby Hull.

I said around, he played nearly half the game on many occasions, don't tell me he didn't because I've watched them.

 

[The Panther]

No, they definitely are. Gretzky regularly played around 30 minutes in the 80s and was double shifted against 4th lines who could hardly skate.

This is what you said: "Gretzky regularly played around 30 minutes".

That is false. He regularly played around 23-26 minutes per game in the 1980s. No doubt there were occasions when he played more. (As an example, with the Oilers facing elimination in game six of the '86 Calgary series, he was clocked at about 32 minutes.) But your statement's use of the word "regularly" is clearly misleading.

 

[WingsFan95]

Seems possible. Still way way less than a 50% chance but how many guys have you said it was possible?

It really comes down to health and his desire to play. I think at this point his chances if he simply continues to play are above 50%. Hard to guage nowadays because players make so much but legacy doesn't go away. Ovechkin just needs people in his ear telling him to look at the odds of him getting beat if he gets the record. I honestly don't think anybody is going to break 700 for his generation so he record could last longer than Gretzky's into the 2050s. Tell him that and maybe he plays 2-3 more years than he really wants. I think it's 60%.

If that 04-05 season wasn't wiped out + some of the 12-13 season, he'd be at 700 by now. Then we'd be having a real serious convo about this.

Yeah but the flip-side is with anti-aging measures that time off could be seen as a positive for his body.

 

[Suntouchable13]

It really comes down to health and his desire to play. I think at this point his chances if he simply continues to play are above 50%. Hard to guage nowadays because players make so much but legacy doesn't go away. Ovechkin just needs people in his ear telling him to look at the odds of him getting beat if he gets the record. I honestly don't think anybody is going to break 700 for his generation so he record could last longer than Gretzky's into the 2050s. Tell him that and maybe he plays 2-3 more years than he really wants. I think it's 60%.



Yeah but the flip-side is with anti-aging measures that time off could be seen as a positive for his body.

Very good point there.

 

[BallardEra]

Goals since Ovechkin entered the league in 2005:

1) Ovechkin - 650 (GP 1063)
2) Crosby - 436 (GP 922)
3) E. Staal - 401 (GP 1072)
4) Marleau - 395 (GP 1077)
5) Malkin - 388 (GP 839)

 

[Voight]

The thing is I just can’t imagine ovechkin scoring less than 30 in a season until 40. Brett Hull was legit 30+ goal scorer in his 30s and the game just got harder to score as his career went on. Lots to adjust for. For ovy if anything it’s getting easier. That shot isn’t going anywhere. It basically comes down to health and how long he wants to play. If he plays till 39-40 and averages 70 games a season he’s gonna be right there.

Age 33- 55 goals
Age 34- 46 goals
Age 35- 43goals
Age-36 26 goals injury
Age 37- 37goals
Age 38- 32 goals
Age 39- 20 goals injury
Age- 40 29 goals

895 goals

Seems possible. Still way way less than a 50% chance but how many guys have you said it was possible?

In my opinion the two seasons after this is make or break for him if he’s gonna try and go for the record. Still young enough to put up big numbers considering what he is doing now. Has to average 40+ for the next two seasons.

My guess is just over 801

This and the fact that in his late years he can just park himself in his office and wire home 25-35 every year until he hits the mark. His shot is that good.

I'm not too sure about the injuries tho. "Russian Machine Never Breaks" the dude has always been physical and he has that type of body that can take tons of pain.

 

[Sam Spade]

NHL goals last 25 seasons:

I'm actually disappointed in Ovechkin.

 

[HF007]

Just did some stats digging on Ovechkin that I'd like to share.

During his first 7 seasons he scored 339 goals in 553 games. He was scoring at a .613 goals per game rate.

At this point he was coming off a 32 goal season in year 6 and a 38 goal season in year 7.

He was 555 goals! behind Gretzky and people would laugh at the notion that he'd ever catch him. Most thought Ovechkin's best days were clearly behind him and that his 50 goal days were done.

In the next 7 seasons after that and up to today, he has scored 310 goals in 509 games. This is at a goals per game rate of .609.


He now stands at 245 goals behind Gretzky's record of 894.

He needed those 2 years to change his style up, went from Bobby Hull to more of a Brett Hull

 

[saffronleaf]

244 to go

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

If that 04-05 season wasn't wiped out + some of the 12-13 season, he'd be at 700 by now. Then we'd be having a real serious convo about this.

Ovechkin wasn't going to be in North America for that lockout season, anyway.

He lost probably 23 goals to the most recent lockout if he would have kept up his scoring pace over a full season. (32 goals in 48 games = 55 goals over 82 games)

If he keeps up his scoring pace this season he'll end up with 58 goals and 665 career goals. So, he'd be at 688, which is 2 goals shy of 10th all time.

Now, supposedly another lockout is on the horizon...grrrr...

 

[Beukeboom]

No one is arguing the delta in players. Gretzky was so far ahead of everyone else (not Mario), that sort of gap just doesn't happen anymore. 4th line guys today would be 2nd or maybe 1st line guys in the 80's.

You can't possibly believe this?

Besides, although it might come as a shock for you, other teams did not make a habit of putting their 4th line against Wayne.

Finally, in regards to people mentioning the lock outs. Don't forget those might have kept Ovechkin injury free, helped him having a higher pace in the coming seasons, and/or, prolonged his career.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

You can't possibly believe this?

Besides, although it might come as a shock for you, other teams did not make a habit of putting their 4th line against Wayne.

Finally, in regards to people mentioning the lock outs. Don't forget those might have kept Ovechkin injury free, helped him having a higher pace in the coming seasons, and/or, prolonged his career.

Naw. Ovechkin was playing hockey in Russia during those lockouts. It's not like he was doing nothing. Still accumulated some wear and tear.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

He has a chance to hit 700 next year. I think he's going to chase 900

 

[Bedards Dad]

You can't possibly believe this?

Besides, although it might come as a shock for you, other teams did not make a habit of putting their 4th line against Wayne.

Finally, in regards to people mentioning the lock outs. Don't forget those might have kept Ovechkin injury free, helped him having a higher pace in the coming seasons, and/or, prolonged his career.

Yes many 4th line guys are skilled enough to be 2nd line in the 80s. Not the bottom end scrubs, but a Tyler Ennis (or similar) would, without a doubt, be a 2nd liner on most 80s teams.

 

[Beukeboom]

Naw. Ovechkin was playing hockey in Russia during those lockouts. It's not like he was doing nothing. Still accumulated some wear and tear.

Sure. But for instance, Jagr said himself that the three years in KHL prolonged his career. They have 30 games less in their regular season. Their playoffs are shorter too.

 

[Deluded Puck]

Regardless if he reaches it or not, (I think that it’s unlikely) he already is the greatest pound for pound scorer this league has ever seen.