Will Ovechkin beat Gretzky in all-time goals?

[rintinw]

Actually, scoring is almost identical in the 1980's vs 2000's. Do you know who put scoring higher in the 1980's? Gretzky, thats who.

1979-92:
- there were 92 occurrences of 50 G seasons (Gretzky contributed to that number with 9, which equals to ~ 10%)
- notable others: Bossy (7), Dionne, Goulet, Kerr, Kurri, Yzerman (4), Hull, Lemieux, Vaive (3), 19 players with (2)

2005-18:
- there were 20 occurrences of 50 G seasons (Ovechkin contributed to that number with 7, which equals to ~ 35%)
- notable others: Heatley, Kovalchuk, Stamkos (2)

Yeah, almost identical.

 

[pezpunk]

Actually, scoring is almost identical in the 1980's vs 2000's. Do you know who put scoring higher in the 1980's? Gretzky, thats who.

i feel dumber for even engaging this guy, but if you're going to do that, then remove Ovechkin from modern results and see where goal scoring is. not that your argument has any merit at any point anyway -- there's no reason to remove Gretzky from those stats, and even if you do, it doesn't move the needle enough to change the obvious fact that scoring was much easier back then.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

But the real stat that means most to me is shots for.

Ovi in his career so far has 5,128 shots. in his nearly 14 year careers.

Gretzky has only 5,088 for his entire career.

That tells everyone that Gretzky is a much much better sniper than Ovi.

Or... maybe the goaltending is much better now than it used to be?

 

[filinski77]

Lets talk variables then. He played in the hooking era and redline offsides. He had at least one crappy winger almost his entire career who was a goon. That is real. I watched him destroy my favourite teams all the time. I hated the guy, but there is no denying that he played with a boat anchor on his left and right wings most of the time. Thats real. It happened.

People thinking Ovi is better than Gretzky dont have a clue to how good he was. Not you, but most here saying Ovi is better. Those variables count. I remember so many times that some knucklehead was out to get him, and the hooking non stop on him and he had to shake that off. He was a centre and Ovi is a one trick pony on the left face-off circle. Gretzky scored all over the ice. These young kids nowadays only grew up watching Ovi, they should really watch more old youtube video's about him.

If anyone thinks Ovi is better than Gretzky, then I dont have time for them. They clearly have learning disabilities. lol

You probably shouldn't be calling people special needs essentially, but whatever. Either way I agree that as an overall hockey player, Ovi is nowhere near Gretzky, but I personally feel it is quite okay to think that Ovi is a better goalscorer than Wayne was.

 

[Bedards Dad]

Or... maybe the goaltending is much better now than it used to be?

Bing

Average sv% over Gretzkys career - .887
Average sv% during Ovis career - .910

 

[Sam Spade]

My favorite player of all time is Wayne Gretzky, my second favorite player of all time is Alex Ovechkin. I would be perfectly happy if Ovechkin finished with 808 goals, 8 Rockets and 8 fifty goal seasons.

 

[Fantomas]

Lets break it down even further.

Year 1
Ovi-52
Gretzky 51
Ovi by 1 goal.

Year 2
Ovi-46
Gretzky 55
Gretzky by 9 goals.

Year 3
Ovi-65
Gretzky-92
Gretzky by 27

Year 4
Ovi-56
Gretzky-71
Gretzky by 15

Year 5
Ovi-50
Gretzky-87
Gretzky by 37

Year 6
Ovi-32
Gretzky-73
Gretzky by 41

Year 7
Ovi-38
Gretzky-52
Gretzky by 14

Year 8
Ovi-32
Gretzky-62
Gretzky by 30

Year 9
Ovi-51
Gretzky-40
Ovi by 11.

Year 10
Ovi-53
Gretzky-54
Gretzky by 1.

I might add also there were only 80 game seasons for Gretzky's first 10 years.

Wow, this is some galaxy brain thinking over here.

 

[BallardEra]

39 year old Joe Thornton with two Steve Austin bionic knees might score 20 goals this year. I think today’s players can play a lot longer than they did in the past.

I truly think for Ovechkin it will come down to personal desire on how long he wants to play.

 

[ItWasJustified]

Or... maybe the goaltending is much better now than it used to be?

Bing

Average sv% over Gretzkys career - .887
Average sv% during Ovis career - .910

The equipment, the game, the training etc etc are much more advanced today than it was in the 80s and 90s.

It's literally impossible to compare players from different eras. You can only compare how good the players were/are in comparison to their peers.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

39 year old Joe Thornton with two Steve Austin bionic knees might score 20 goals this year. I think today’s players can play a lot longer than they did in the past.

I truly think for Ovechkin it will come down to personal desire on how long he wants to play.

Sidenote: There's only one Steve Austin, and he never wrestled in the WWE...

 

[BallardEra]

Sidenote: There's only one Steve Austin, and he never wrestled in the WWE...

And he's the one I was referring to.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

And he's the one I was referring to.

Oh I know. Just picking up the ball and taking it to the end zone.

 

[BallardEra]

Oh I know. Just picking up the ball and taking it to the end zone.

The Sasquatch footage with Andre the Giant is still awesome to watch on YouTube.

 

[Bedards Dad]

The equipment, the game, the training etc etc are much more advanced today than it was in the 80s and 90s.

It's literally impossible to compare players from different eras. You can only compare how good the players were/are in comparison to their peers.

I can tell you that a goalie who stands up and kicks his leg at a puck is much easier to score on. They have era adjusted stats for a reason. NHL & WHA Career Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

This quote will also put some context into eras

They’re not kidding. Last season, NHL teams averaged 227 goals for and 227 against, or about 5.5 goals per game. When Gretzky scored 92 goals in the 1981-82 season, teams averaged over eight goals per game.

Era Adjusted: Greatest NHL goal-scoring seasons of all-time - Sportsnet.ca

 

[WingsFan95]

I really wish I could find some people's projections for Ovechkin's pace to catch Gretzky after 2016-17 season. Many expected a rebound from 33 goals but at the same time many figured his 50 days were over. I saw projections putting his 2020s between 20-30 goals, which is still a possibility but nearly no one thought he'd be posting 49 & 50+ these past two seasons.

This discussion might as well be on if Ovechkin plays to 40 or not. If he does, record might as well be his barring serious injury.

Seriously this is how likely it is now if he ends up with a seemingly modest prediction of 53 goals this year:

(Age 34) 2019-2020: 37
2020-21: 43
2021-22: 38
2022-23: 32
2023-24: 28
2024-25: 30
(Age 40) 2025-26: 27

That's one 40 goal season right there. For a man who now has 10. Selanne had 27-27-31-26 in his age 38-41 seasons and 3 of those were shortened including 27 goals in 54 games!!!!

So again, it's a question of him playing to 40. Jagr would have probably gotten the record with 4 additional seasons in his 30s.

 

[BallardEra]

Just did some stats digging on Ovechkin that I'd like to share.

During his first 7 seasons he scored 339 goals in 553 games. He was scoring at a .613 goals per game rate.

At this point he was coming off a 32 goal season in year 6 and a 38 goal season in year 7.

He was 555 goals! behind Gretzky and people would laugh at the notion that he'd ever catch him. Most thought Ovechkin's best days were clearly behind him and that his 50 goal days were done.

In the next 7 seasons after that and up to today, he has scored 310 goals in 509 games. This is at a goals per game rate of .609.


He now stands at 245 goals behind Gretzky's record of 894.

 

[ItWasJustified]

I can tell you that a goalie who stands up and kicks his leg at a puck is much easier to score on. They have era adjusted stats for a reason. NHL & WHA Career Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

This quote will also put some context into eras

Era Adjusted: Greatest NHL goal-scoring seasons of all-time - Sportsnet.ca

Do these adjusted stats have the difference in sticks, skates, quality of ice etc etc in calculation? If not, it's no use.

 

[BallardEra]

So if Ovechkin plays until 40 years old we can break his career down into 3 separate 7 year segments:

First 7 years: 339 goals
Middle 7 years: 320 (giving him 10 more goals this season to finish with 52)
Last 7 years: 235 goals needed to tie Gretzky

 

[Brucelenok]

I really wish I could find some people's projections for Ovechkin's pace to catch Gretzky after 2016-17 season. Many expected a rebound from 33 goals but at the same time many figured his 50 days were over. I saw projections putting his 2020s between 20-30 goals, which is still a possibility but nearly no one thought he'd be posting 49 & 50+ these past two seasons.

This discussion might as well be on if Ovechkin plays to 40 or not. If he does, record might as well be his barring serious injury.

Seriously this is how likely it is now if he ends up with a seemingly modest prediction of 53 goals this year:

(Age 34) 2019-2020: 37
2020-21: 43
2021-22: 38
2022-23: 32
2023-24: 28
2024-25: 30
(Age 40) 2025-26: 27

That's one 40 goal season right there. For a man who now has 10. Selanne had 27-27-31-26 in his age 38-41 seasons and 3 of those were shortened including 27 goals in 54 games!!!!

So again, it's a question of him playing to 40. Jagr would have probably gotten the record with 4 additional seasons in his 30s.

He wouldn't. Jagr himself gave bunch of interviews basically stating that he needed to rejuvenate his career and thats why he moved and played in RSL (pre-KHL). If he stayed in NHL, he would retire much earlier compare to where he is now due to the fact that NHL was much heavier and physical league than it is right now

 

[Bedards Dad]

Do these adjusted stats have the difference in sticks, skates, quality of ice etc etc in calculation? If not, it's no use.

More use then comparing games that averaged 8+ goals per game to games with 5 goals per game and calling them equal. I get it, you miss old school hockey and that's fine, but the league is, as a whole, far more skilled today. Also Ovi is a better pure goal scorer, and likely will have more when all is said and done.

 

[Fantomas]

More use then comparing games that averaged 8+ goals per game to games with 5 goals per game and calling them equal. I get it, you kiss old school hockey, and that's fine, but the league is, as a whole, far more skilled today. Also Ovi is a better pure goal scorer, and likely will have more when all is said and done.

Most annoying type of logic I encounter here: if a stat is not perfect then it must be deemed useless. Unless of course it's the dumbest, simplest stat one can find.

 

[SkinsFan09]

The equipment, the game, the training etc etc are much more advanced today than it was in the 80s and 90s.

It's literally impossible to compare players from different eras. You can only compare how good the players were/are in comparison to their peers.

We don't have to be intellectually dishonest. It is way harder to score goals now than it was in the 80s.

 

[King Mapes]

Actually, scoring is almost identical in the 1980's vs 2000's. Do you know who put scoring higher in the 1980's? Gretzky, thats who.

Lol what? You need to check your stats. You're literally the only person I've ever heard say this.

 

[King Mapes]

Since the lockout Pittsburgh has the highest Goals/Game with 3.09. Over Gretzky's first 14 seasons the lowest scoring team was the Hartford Whalers with 3.38 Goals/Game, way higher than any team post lockout.

Yeah but that's because Gretzky was in the league

 

[ABCUser]

The fact that we're even talking about this during 2 decades of much lower scoring is truly remarkable. Everybody should say what he's doing is incredible weather he breaks it or not and clearly a strong argument can be made that he's the greatest goal scorer of all-time.