Speculation: Will Ottawa give the Avs the #4 overall?

[Donzo]

Ottawa needs to have a direction. If that direction is trading Karlsson than it's really difficult to keep this years pick and essentially potentially the worst team in the league next year without your pick. I think if that's the direction they go they give up the pick and hope they can get some small sweetener from Colorado to get the 4th overall pick this year. It's possible The Avs prefer to have next years pick but I think they'd probably prefer 4th overall this year, and wouldn't mind giving up something small like say a 2nd round pick to make it happen.

From Ottawa's perspective lets assume both drafts(2018, and 2019) are identically equal. If you are certain you're a bottom 5 team next year what is the right decision mathematically? Well for simplicity sake lets say there's a 20% chance that Ottawa finishes in each of the 5 worst positions. The following are their pick odds

	1st Pick	2nd pick	3rd Pick	4th Pick	5th Pick	6th Pick	7th Pick	8th Pick
Last Place	18.5	16.5	14.4	50.6	0	0	0	0
2nd Last	13.5	13.0	12.3	33.3	27.9	0	0	0
3rd Last	11.5	11.3	11.1	13.2	37.7	15.2	0	0
4th Last	9.5	9.6	9.7	2.8	26.1	34.0	8.3	0
5th Last	8.5	8.7	8.9	0	8.4	34.5	26.7	4.3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Now the odds of getting each pick if the odds of finishing in each of the last 5 places were identical would be the average of the possibilities

1st Pick	2nd Pick	3rd Pick	4th Pick	5th Pick	6th Pick	7th Pick	8th Pick
12.3	11.82	11.28	19.98	20.2	16.87	7.0	0.86

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So if we assumed Ottawa had equal chance of finishing from last to 5th last next year they'd have a 44.93 chance of getting a worse pick, and a 34.5 chance of getting a better one. Along with a 19.98 chance of getting the same pick next year. Those odds would say if you assume Ottawa is a bottom 5 team next year, with equal chance of every spot then keep the pick this year. However with increasing value of picks I think I'd gamble the 45% chance of getting a worse pick for the 35% chance of getting a better one with a 12.3% chance of getting the 1st overall pick. Especially if I could get something small out of Colorado to make it happen.

As for the Avs side of things in an asset only world you could say the reciprocal of Ottawa's situation applies. But I'd suggest it doesn't. While Ottawa should be in an asset collection spot with the possibility of being bad on purpose or out of necessity(can't lose Karlsson for nothing) next year, and can afford to play the odds to try to get that 1 special prospect Colorado is on it's way up and could really use a 4th overall pick and a prospect like Zadina(if Montreal takes Kotkaniemi) now instead of playing the odds and waiting a year to possibly get a worse pick. If a player like Zadina is on the board I think Colorado would be very content with getting him right now.

For that reason I think it makes more sense for both teams to have the Avs have the 4th overall pick this year, though I don't believe that's what will happen. It would be an interesting game of chicken to see exactly how much Ottawa could pry out of Colorado to make that a reality. I'd suggest a 2nd round pick would be sensible, but like I said I expect Ottawa to keep the pick so I don't think it will happen

Thanks for this detailed analysis, but my takeaway from your results is the opposite: considering A) the greater likelihood that the 2019 pick will be equal to or worse than this year's pick, B) the unpredictability of team results, particularly high PDO, which could lead to a better finish than expected/desired even with a terrible team, and C) the poor optics involved with forfeiting such a high pick (not to mention how Melnyk would feel about fewer tickets being sold and the fact that PD signaled he is trying to remain competitive by acquiring Boedker), Ottawa should take the BPA at 4. The only thing that might make me change that assessment is if the top 8 or so is predicted to be significantly better in 2019, which I don't know anything about. I will agree that if Ottawa is intent on picking in 2019, trying to get a 2nd or 3rd out of the Avs to get them to give up 4OA is not a bad plan and Colorado might be willing to pay it for the reasons I stated above.

Thanks again for taking the time to do actual math for this discussion.

 

[Shad]

Take notes of anyone who says they should give the 4th away and ignore everything they ever post on these boards again

 

[LaP]

I would think about it if the 2019 pick is not protected. Can't risk losing the 1st overall next year imo. They will be a lottery team next season. Might as well lose this first while their awful GM is still there.

 

[LaP]

Take notes of anyone who says they should give the 4th away and ignore everything they ever post on these boards again

I don't know if their 2019 pick is protected but if not and they don't give their pick this year and happen to lose the first overall next year will you come back here to say you were wrong? I bet not.

 

[Shad]

I don't know if their 2019 pick is protected but if not and they don't give their pick this year and happen to lose the first overall next year will you come back here to say you were wrong? I bet not.

If I agreed to flip a coin, if you call heads and win you get $1000, tails you get $400 you would certainly choose heads.

I now flip the coin and it is tails so you get nothing, do you regret picking heads?

There's this thing called probability. You make the best decision possible with the information you have. You don't give up a top 4 pick for a "we might finish bottom four next year and maybe even win the lottery."

So to answer your question, no I will not come back to say I am wrong if they strike first overall next year. Could it happen? Absolutely, but the best decision isn't to gamble on that very unlikely outcome. The odds that they end up with an equivalent or better pick next year are far less.

 

[Zerotonine]

They will get a first back for 2019 with Karlsson trade simple, that's why they won't be trading this year's pick away .and for the most part the teams that can afford Karlsson I wouldn't be surprised if it will still be a top 10 pick in '19

 

[iFan]

This is the issue when you have a dying team and trying to save it, if they had this pick and next years and the assets from a Karlsson trade it could be a quick rebuild. Unfortunately this is a common issue with Canadian teams with the spot light on them to compete

 

[Meeqs]

Even if the sens finish dead last, the odds are higher that it’s 4th overall. So if Ottawa finishes better than last(anywhere in the bottom 5) how are the odds greater that the pick is better than this year?

You add up the probabilities of the top 4 picks not the top 3. I personally consider next years draft to be better so I'd give the tie breaker to next year, as well as simply getting another roll of the dice.

But yeah, I'm accounting for the chance its not worse, not that it is better. Hope that clears up some confusion.

 

[Chandrashekhar Limit]

Give up the pick this year, and do a sign and trade for Karlsson to Colorado with that pick and whatever else it takes Colorado

In all seriousness, I think Ottawa keeps the pick this year. Never know what transpires next year.

 

[Meeqs]

Yes, I'm sure the Sens are quaking in their skates worried about the next article mentioning the pick.

Probably won't be able to sleep a wink the entire season!

Teams hate bad press and avoid problems like the plague. I mean hell they just gave away Hoffman for free pretty much to get rid of his bad press.

If they start failing next year, which is likely, there will be non-stop stories of how they aren't even getting a high end pick out of the deal. If they give away the #1OA pick it becomes one of the most one sided trades of all time and will haunt Ott for decades.

 

[Byzantium]

If I agreed to flip a coin, if you call heads and win you get $1000, tails you get $400 you would certainly choose heads.

I now flip the coin and it is tails so you get nothing, do you regret picking heads?

There's this thing called probability. You make the best decision possible with the information you have. You don't give up a top 4 pick for a "we might finish bottom four next year and maybe even win the lottery."

So to answer your question, no I will not come back to say I am wrong if they strike first overall next year. Could it happen? Absolutely, but the best decision isn't to gamble on that very unlikely outcome. The odds that they end up with an equivalent or better pick next year are far less.

Well the 4th overall pick is definite and a lottery pick is still a lottery pick. If they trade EK they will have 1 good line, the weakest defense in the league and a weak goalie. Looks a lot like a 30-31 place finish to me. In that case it would absolutely be worth it to gamble. Even if it's probable they lose the lottery it's still such a high reward it could be worth it.

 

[Balthazar]

If I agreed to flip a coin, if you call heads and win you get $1000, tails you get $400 you would certainly choose heads.

I now flip the coin and it is tails so you get nothing, do you regret picking heads?

There's this thing called probability. You make the best decision possible with the information you have. You don't give up a top 4 pick for a "we might finish bottom four next year and maybe even win the lottery."

So to answer your question, no I will not come back to say I am wrong if they strike first overall next year. Could it happen? Absolutely, but the best decision isn't to gamble on that very unlikely outcome. The odds that they end up with an equivalent or better pick next year are far less.

That's not how you should look at it.

It's not that bad to lose 4OA this year and draft 10OA next year (pretty much worst case scenario if you surrender the pick this year).

On the other hand, it's really, really bad to draft 4OA this year and lose Jack Hughes next year (worst case scenario is you keep the pick this year).

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

If I am Colorado the minute Ottawa chooses to pick #4 this year is when I start preparing my offer sheet for Mark Stone.
If Ottawa matches it they use up more of their precious budget so that they can't bolster other areas of need or they don't match it and they lose Mark Stone.

Lose or lose.

Either way Ottawa probably does worse next year and Colorado gets a higher pick.

 

[BPD]

The Senators should keep this pick, barring one noteworthy exception.

Mathematically, even if the Senators are the worst team in the NHL, there is a (slightly) greater than 50% chance that next year's pick is 4th overall. If the Senators are even one point better than worst, those odds increase pretty rapidly. Plus, with the new lottery system, it's a lot easier to be the worst team and not end up with the best pick.

Basically, the logic of giving Colorado the pick is entirely predicated on the "mystery box" scenario. If the Senators think they're even marginally better than the worst team in the NHL, the mathematical odds dictate that they need to keep the pick this year.

Now - the exception scenario is as follows: Colorado's guy is on the board, and they're willing to add to the "rights to the Senators 2019 pick" to take the 2018 pick. I'm wholly unsure as to why Colorado might add aside from trying to accumulate the assets for a "win now" deal (let's face it, 4+16 is a pretty solid package for a higher end defender)

 

[Freudian]

Even if the sens finish dead last, the odds are higher that it’s 4th overall. So if Ottawa finishes better than last(anywhere in the bottom 5) how are the odds greater that the pick is better than this year?

The odds of this years pick being a top three pick < the odds of next years pick being a top three pick.

 

[BPD]

The odds of this years pick being a top three pick < the odds of next years pick being a top three pick.

The odds of next years' pick being >4 are higher than the odds of this year's pick being 4th or higher.

 

[BruinsBtn]

There's zero chance they give up this pick. It would be waving the white flag in the season ahead.

 

[JLo217]

I believe the thinking would be that Ottawa may already be half-tempted just to give Colorado their pick this year, so if Colorado offered something like #16 + Ottawa 2019 1st for #4 then it would push Ottawa into making that deal. Colorado adds a valuable winger like Zadina/Tkachuk this year and Ottawa gets a lesser mid-1st prospect this year + their 2019 pick back.

That makes 0 sense for Co.... do you understand the Duchene trade at all? The Avs got an extra first, this year or next. They will take whichever pick they’re given.

They definitely won’t be giving up a first to get a pick they could get for free if Ottawa chose to opt for 2019. I’m sorry but is the worst proposal I’ve seen.

 

[Freudian]

The odds of next years' pick being >4 are higher than the odds of this year's pick being 4th or higher.

Of course, but the average expected value of the 2019 pick may still be higher than this years 4th overall. Especially if Ottawa trade Karlsson because of the value of a top pick is so much higher than 4th overall this year.

There is a reason most pundits are saying Ottawa should hand over this years pick and go for a rebuild.

 

[SoulDynasty]

That makes 0 sense for Co.... do you understand the Duchene trade at all? The Avs got an extra first, this year or next. They will take whichever pick they’re given.

They definitely won’t be giving up a first to get a pick they could get for free if Ottawa chose to opt for 2019. I’m sorry but is the worst proposal I’ve seen.

What’s crazy is that I’ve seen this proposed all over the place by Sens fans as if it is a logical idea. I think they have/are trying to convince themselves that it makes sense.

 

[JLo217]

What’s crazy is that I’ve seen this proposed all over the place by Sens fans as if it is a logical idea. I think they have/are trying to convince themselves that it makes sense.

The chaos up there is spinning some of them into Leaf and Oiler Facebook fan levels of being out to lunch.

 

[GoldiFox]

That makes 0 sense for Co.... do you understand the Duchene trade at all? The Avs got an extra first, this year or next. They will take whichever pick they’re given.

They definitely won’t be giving up a first to get a pick they could get for free if Ottawa chose to opt for 2019. I’m sorry but is the worst proposal I’ve seen.

I’m not advocating the deal I’m explaining the logic. It appeared it wasn’t obvious to some why it might be desirable for Colorado to add Zadina or Tkachuk to the roster for next year or that there may actually be risk involved with the Draft Lottery (best case scenario there is a 50/50 chance that Colorado is drafting #4 in 2019 and worst case it could be outside the top-10).

 

[JLo217]

Do you think there is any benefit to adding Zadina or Tkachuk to the Avs roster next year? The answer should be pretty obvious.

Assets have time value. This means that assets now are worth more than the same asset a year from now because you get to realize one year of full benefit. It is why (in general) a 2019 1st is not worth as much as a 2018 1st. This is especially true in the modern NHL where even the last-place team has a 50/50 chance of picking 4th Overall.

It still makes 0 sense for the Avs to pay their own 1st. Just roll the dice and have 2 firsts next year in a strong draft even if it’s not number 4.

This logic just makes 0 sense unless you’re a Sens fan who thinks they’re going to get a free asset for something they already traded away. I’m sorry but that’s just a dumb train of thought.

 

[BeastoftheEast85]

I don’t think the Sens are a bottom 5 lock for next year. Even if Karlsson is traded, they still have some decent pieces. If they keep their pick and don’t go into tank mode, it is more likely they finish 5-10 than 1-5.

However, I do see the case made for the Sens to give up their pick this year in exchange for something decent like Colorado (e.g 4AO and 2nd/3rd for 16th AO and Sens 2019 First). Especially if the Sens expect to trade Karlsson (which looks likely) and are prepared to go into a rebuilding/tooling mode (which would proabably be the right move).

However Dorian would never do this as it would be career suicide. It would be tantamount to him admitting he ran this team to ground and expects them to do even worse next year than year. There is no way he would keep his job. At least if he waits a year, there is a chance things somehow turn around.

 

[GoldiFox]

It still makes 0 sense for the Avs to pay their own 1st. Just roll the dice and have 2 firsts next year in a strong draft even if it’s not number 4.

This logic just makes 0 sense unless you’re a Sens fan who thinks they’re going to get a free asset for something they already traded away. I’m sorry but that’s just a dumb train of thought.

What a great way to characterize it. You want them to "Just roll the dice". Which is a statement of your tolerance for a higher level of risk in order to achieve potentially greater reward. GMs are paid millions of dollars to manage assets and risk. Colorado ensuring that they obtain the #4 overall this year by dealing away another asset (for example a mid-1st) instead of "rolling the dice" on a 2019 mystery 1st would be one path for Colorado to take. The only "dumb train of thought" is believing that this somehow isn't a logical and potentially mutually-beneficial route.