Speculation: Will Ottawa give the Avs the #4 overall?

[BeastoftheEast85]

It still makes 0 sense for the Avs to pay their own 1st. Just roll the dice and have 2 firsts next year in a strong draft even if it’s not number 4.

This logic just makes 0 sense unless you’re a Sens fan who thinks they’re going to get a free asset for something they already traded away. I’m sorry but that’s just a dumb train of thought.

So you think given up a mid 1st in exchange for a guaranteed blue chip prospect who could make an impact to a young bubble team as early as this year instead of a very nice mystery box next year makes 0 sense?

I don’t believe this will happen, see the case not to do this from both POV, and think the Sens would need to add a 2nd/3rd, but I still believe it makes some sense to do this.

 

[Freudian]

So you think given up a mid 1st in exchange for a guaranteed blue chip prospect who could make an impact to a young bubble team as early as this year instead of a very nice mystery box next year makes 0 sense?

I don’t believe this will happen, see the case not to do this from both POV, and think the Sens would need to add a 2nd/3rd, but I still believe it makes some sense to do this.

Giving up a 1st rounder from a team that finished 30th and look to be weaker next year just to move up from 16 to 4 makes zero sense. It would be complete idiocy.

This isn't an amazing draft and Zadina/Tkachuk aren't slam dunks. They are fairly average top ten picks and chances are you can get as good a player 5-10 next year and a significantly better player 1-3.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Thanks for this detailed analysis, but my takeaway from your results is the opposite: considering A) the greater likelihood that the 2019 pick will be equal to or worse than this year's pick, B) the unpredictability of team results, particularly high PDO, which could lead to a better finish than expected/desired even with a terrible team, and C) the poor optics involved with forfeiting such a high pick (not to mention how Melnyk would feel about fewer tickets being sold and the fact that PD signaled he is trying to remain competitive by acquiring Boedker), Ottawa should take the BPA at 4. The only thing that might make me change that assessment is if the top 8 or so is predicted to be significantly better in 2019, which I don't know anything about. I will agree that if Ottawa is intent on picking in 2019, trying to get a 2nd or 3rd out of the Avs to get them to give up 4OA is not a bad plan and Colorado might be willing to pay it for the reasons I stated above.

Thanks again for taking the time to do actual math for this discussion.

It all comes down to where an individual puts their range of expected finish, and of course their plan. If they trade off Karlsson, and potentially Duchene as well, on paper they have to be the worst team in the league, but like you said luck can cause a bad team to be better which is why I used the bottom 5 range. Now it's entirely possible they are better than that as well, but IMO that's the likely range of outcomes, and unlike my percentages you'd probably weigh the bottom could more likely than #4 or 5. If you take #5 out of the equation and assume a bottom 4 result is likely, then it's basically even odds to get a better or worse pick than #4. 37.725% for a better pick v. 37.3% for a worse pick. And like I said, I'd be more than willing to risk dropping a couple of spots to try to get that coveted #1 pick. The benefit of gaining far outweighs the risks of dropping IMO. The #7 pick next year isn't going to be that much worse than the #4 this year.

1 last thing I didn't mention until now is how this decision could impact the offseason moving forward. IMO they should make the decision on their direction and then make this decision based off of that. But IMO they could decide to keep the pick, and then realizing they'll be bad next year be more inclined to keep UFAs like Karlsson and Duchene. They can't afford to be losing guys to UFA without trading them because they worry about being terrible without owning their pick. If giving up next years pick means they don't trade a UFA and lose them for nothing, or get less value later then that's another negative to keeping this years pick. If you can't sign Karlsson or Duchene to an extension they better trade them regardless of whether they own their pick or not.

Mathematically, the decision is close enough that I wouldn't ridicule anyone for taking either side. I totally understand not wanting to part with the 4th pick this year. It's a really good pick to be just handing over to someone else. Especially since I really like Zadina, maybe more than Svechnikov TBH(And perhaps I should be ridiculed for that) so if he's there at 4 it makes it all the more difficult for myself if I were making that call. But whatever they decide to do they better make their plan for their direction next year seperate from that decision, and not try to be good next year and lose value on UFAs because their down own their pick. If it's going to become a distraction in causing bad decisions later then just give it up and be done with it.

I absolutely expect them to keep it though, the Boedker thing is a pretty good indication of that, but they need to be smart and not lose UFAs for nothing because they have to compete. That would be dumb.

 

[These Are The Days]

Duchene is just gonna be the gift that keeps on giving for the Avs.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Duchene is just gonna be the gift that keeps on giving for the Avs.

 

[These Are The Days]

Not that I'm saying anything that Senators fans don't already know but the organization needs to just buck up and cut their losses by giving Colorado the pick this year. They're literally counting on Boucher to save the team from disaster and if history tells us anything he's gonna charge full speed ahead into the iceberg. Once the Senators tank to the bottom of the standings there's no reason to believe their stars are coming back. Not unless there's verbal commitment from guys like Duchene and Karlsson to stay around no matter what or they sign their extensions now. The only way it makes sense for the Senators to hold onto the pick is if they know something we don't about their star players coming back.

In the meantime Melnyk needs to go. Tampa fans know more about bad ownership than any fanbase in North America with the likes of Nameoli, Culverhouse and OK! Hockey. I desperately implore all Senators fans reading this to cut all funding to the team and even skip watching games. Hit Melnyk where it hurts him most.... his wallet. It worked for all 3 of our teams and it will with yours

 

[BeastoftheEast85]

Giving up a 1st rounder from a team that finished 30th and look to be weaker next year just to move up from 16 to 4 makes zero sense. It would be complete idiocy.

This isn't an amazing draft and Zadina/Tkachuk aren't slam dunks. They are fairly average top ten picks and chances are you can get as good a player 5-10 next year and a significantly better player 1-3.

You are overestimating the 2019 draft. As many people will say the top picks in 2018 are better as will say 2019 is better. And that’s not considering the fact people always tend to say next year’s draft will be better, even if it’s not the case.

The Sens are also a team that was one goal away from the SCF last year. There is no guarantee they will finish in the bottom 5, escpecially if they don’t have their first and arebt tanking. Assuming they finish 5-10 (though it is true may finish last, they may also finish 15th) you are giving up a ~8OA next year and 16OA this year for a guaranteed 4OA this year and say a 2nd this year. That’s a fair trade. It also takes risk out of the equation which if you know anything about asset management adds a lot of value.

 

[bdp]

They is 0 chance they give up the pick this year. The plan is to compete next year.

 

[JLo217]

What a great way to characterize it. You want them to "Just roll the dice". Which is a statement of your tolerance for a higher level of risk in order to achieve potentially greater reward. GMs are paid millions of dollars to manage assets and risk. Colorado ensuring that they obtain the #4 overall this year by dealing away another asset (for example a mid-1st) instead of "rolling the dice" on a 2019 mystery 1st would be one path for Colorado to take. The only "dumb train of thought" is believing that this somehow isn't a logical and potentially mutually-beneficial route.

I get what you’re trying to say but you have it all wrong.

The Sens are the team rumored to want the pick in 19 back. Sakic and the team has more or less indicated they’ll take the 18 or 19 1st.

You are creating a scenario in favor of the team who is at a disadvantage. The only real way the Avs send anything to Ottawa is the rights to whichever 1st back as part of a larger deal that would only be for Stone or EK.

 

[These Are The Days]

They is 0 chance they give up the pick this year. The plan is to compete next year.

I don't really see how that's possible when it's going to be hard enough competing this year. They screw this up and it's damage control by New Years

 

[bdp]

I don't really see how that's possible when it's going to be hard enough competing this year. They screw this up and it's damage control by New Years

Management think this year was a fluke and they should be a playoff team next year.

 

[GoldiFox]

I get what you’re trying to say but you have it all wrong.

The Sens are the team rumored to want the pick in 19 back. Sakic and the team has more or less indicated they’ll take the 18 or 19 1st.

You are creating a scenario in favor of the team who is at a disadvantage. The only real way the Avs send anything to Ottawa is the rights to whichever 1st back as part of a larger deal that would only be for Stone or EK.

I can't be wrong because I'm not advocating any position. My personal opinion is that Ottawa should keep this pick, use it or trade it to improve the roster, and overhaul for next year. This was my exact same opinion in 2014 when Buffalo fans were telling Islanders fans that they better give up #5 instead of risking next year's 1st which was surely a top-2 pick (by the way, the Islanders made the Playoffs the next year and that pick ended up being #21).

If you can't see the potential benefit in Colorado adding Zadina or Tkachuk to their roster next year then we are at an end. Ottawa is not at a disadvantage. Ottawa just has a decision to make. 2018 pick or 2019 pick. Colorado has the ability to influence that decision in many ways, some of which I have outlined extensively.

 

[Freudian]

It also takes risk out of the equation which if you know anything about asset management adds a lot of value.

It also takes reward out of the equation.

Avs have much better odds of getting good NHL players with #16th overall + 1st-16th overall than 4th overall this year.

I guess some are so risk averse they don't see the point of hanging on to a 1st round pick from one of the weakest teams in the league. I do.

 

[sheriff bart]

Ottawa forfeiting this year's #4 for a magic bean next year is not smart. A lot of things have to fall right (or wrong) for that to pay off. Take the pick. It isn't like you're talking about the 20th selection in the draft. 4OA is nothing to sneeze at. Next year's pick is as likely to be #12 as #1.

 

[These Are The Days]

Management think this year was a fluke and they should be a playoff team next year.

Are you talking about the season just played or the season to come? If the former then I get what you're driving at. But if you mean the Sens fall apart and are in last place by Christmas 2018 and giving guys like Karlsson and Duchene no reason to come back then I don't see how they call that a fluke if they both are either traded or leave via UFA.

 

[justafan22]

There's only a 18% chance at best they give the Avs jack hughes next year.

 

[BKarchitect]

The concept that the Avs are going to cough up additional assets to guarantee the pick this year is some high level spin. Absolutely not going to happen. If the Sens rebound this year and the pick in 2019 for the Avs ends up being #15 and not top 3, bully for the Sens. But the Avs can absolutely sit back and let things play out here.

 

[BKarchitect]

There's only a 18% chance at best they give the Avs jack hughes next year.

Considering he very well may not be the top prospect in the class, that’s absolutely fine. It’s not “Hughes or bust” we are talking about here.

 

[justafan22]

Considering he very well may not be the top prospect in the class, that’s absolutely fine. It’s not “Hughes or bust” we are talking about here.

Yeah, he reminds me more of Kane in a prospect than Eichel/matthews. But the sens only have a 52%? shot of a top 3 pick if they finish dead last next year

 

[LAKings88]

Ottawa forfeiting this year's #4 for a magic bean next year is not smart. A lot of things have to fall right (or wrong) for that to pay off. Take the pick. It isn't like you're talking about the 20th selection in the draft. 4OA is nothing to sneeze at. Next year's pick is as likely to be #12 as #1.

Lot of variables, mainly Karlsson or what you can get for him, rookies stepping in, etc.
Also on how Ottawa perceives the value of players at 4.

I think they keep it but it’s a toss up.

 

[JLo217]

How people don’t see that the Senators are the team at a disadvantage right now is mind boggling.

I feel like half this thread thinks the Avs need to pay for a pick they could have for free. Sakic has indicated they’re good to take either 1st. Most Avs fans thought Ottawa would contend after the trade. So whichever year and wherever the first lands is just a continuous fleecing of the Senators.

 

[terrible dee]

Here's a question for you.....does Montreal trade #3 overall for Duchane and Chabot?

They need a center...Duchane (for reasons I don't understand) is valued quite highly in that field of work,

They need a young D to make the loss of Sergey hurt less, Chabot is young and looks to be quite talented.....AND HE'S FRENCH DON'T CHA' KNOW!

Montreal would have to include some warm bodies in the deal as well, but nothing that would hurt, a couple of "B" prospects, like that giant ape of a kid...what's what's his name?

And that Russian prospect that was supposed to be good but hasn't been so far? What's his name?

Anyway, this lets the Senators draft Tkachuck, a guy who stands out, makes his presence known and would give the team a new face, focal point and attitude, he's also a guy who can play center (Not like Drouin can "Play" center, but REALLY play center....not like Duchane either, who is a winger who lines up in the middle)

 

[terrible dee]

So you think given up a mid 1st in exchange for a guaranteed blue chip prospect who could make an impact to a young bubble team as early as this year instead of a very nice mystery box next year makes 0 sense?

I don’t believe this will happen, see the case not to do this from both POV, and think the Sens would need to add a 2nd/3rd, but I still believe it makes some sense to do this.

OH MY GOD!

Montreal -ites has spread to Ottawa! We've got a pandemic on our hands....Symptoms? Completely delusional ideas on asset swaps to save their teams from drowning in the septic tank they fell into while drunk on the job.

No, nobody is going to jump into the septic tank and lett you stand on their shoulders to climb out, then think "Wow! Cool! Now I'm drowning in sh*t!"

There is one move and one move ONLY that Ottawa fans need concern themselves with, GET RID OF MELNYK, you need to organize your season ticket based and boycott the team,

Let Bettman know you are serious if you don't get rid of that guy NOTHING else matters

 

[BeastoftheEast85]

It also takes reward out of the equation.

Avs have much better odds of getting good NHL players with #16th overall + 1st-16th overall than 4th overall this year.

I guess some are so risk averse they don't see the point of hanging on to a 1st round pick from one of the weakest teams in the league. I do.

I don’t believe you really understand risk aversion. You should read up on it and the point that multiple people are making on this thread will make sense to you:
Risk aversion - Wikipedia

Once you get this then:
- Consider the fact that the Avs who are a team looking to contend get a top pick this year rather than maybe one next year, which actually adds value.
- Look back at some recent drafts and the players who go around 4OA vs around 16OA. You will find there is a huge gap.

 

[Freudian]

I don’t believe you really understand risk aversion. You should read up on it and the point that multiple people are making on this thread will make sense to you:
Risk aversion - Wikipedia

Once you get this then:
- Consider the fact that the Avs who are a team looking to contend get a top pick this year rather than maybe one next year, which actually adds value.
- Look back at some recent drafts and the players who go around 4OA vs around 16OA. You will find there is a huge gap.

Avs are a team looking to contend? They're still in a rebuild. Among the youngest teams in the league and just, barely, turned the corner.

Ottawas first round pick fits right into what they are doing. Getting good players on ELCs that will be able to contribute when the team is good.