Speculation: Will Ottawa give the Avs the #4 overall?

[Alan Wake]

Karlson, Bowers, Turris, Hammond and a 3rd for

Duchene and Barrie.

I kinda hope Duchene was worth it. Man Ottawa is dumb.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Would be a bonehead move to give them their 4th overall, so I expect them to do it

 

[StreetHawk]

Would be a bonehead move to give them their 4th overall, so I expect them to do it

Unless there are multiple players in the 2019 that are at least as good or better than what is expect extend to be there in 2018, I think you keep the pick and live with the consequences.

This is why teams who go on a Cinderella run need to be honest with themselves.

 

[Icelevel]

Not a chance.

 

[Hasbro]

I kinda hope Duchene was worth it. Man Ottawa is dumb.

Not next season I don't.

I'm obsessed with this trade. I want books written and a 30-for-30 on this deal.

 

[ljb4]

We're so boned. Keep the pick I guess and hope Anderson has one of 'those' years next year.

If Ottawa gets league average goaltending, they will finish higher than last season. They should keep the pick this draft and hope the lottery balls don't bounce the Avs way.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

No.

 

[Petes2424]

You cant run your team this way... So that means Ottawa probably does it...

In all seriousness though, you dont give up top 5 picks. How many times does the worst team win the lotto as it is? Should be a big NO but it is the Sens.

 

[JLo217]

To those Ottawa fans saying Colorado should pay the Sens to take this years pick instead of 19, please see Pierre LeBruns Twitter. It says what all CO fans were taking heat for yesterday.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Ottawa needs to have a direction. If that direction is trading Karlsson than it's really difficult to keep this years pick and essentially potentially the worst team in the league next year without your pick. I think if that's the direction they go they give up the pick and hope they can get some small sweetener from Colorado to get the 4th overall pick this year. It's possible The Avs prefer to have next years pick but I think they'd probably prefer 4th overall this year, and wouldn't mind giving up something small like say a 2nd round pick to make it happen.

From Ottawa's perspective lets assume both drafts(2018, and 2019) are identically equal. If you are certain you're a bottom 5 team next year what is the right decision mathematically? Well for simplicity sake lets say there's a 20% chance that Ottawa finishes in each of the 5 worst positions. The following are their pick odds

	1st Pick	2nd pick	3rd Pick	4th Pick	5th Pick	6th Pick	7th Pick	8th Pick
Last Place	18.5	16.5	14.4	50.6	0	0	0	0
2nd Last	13.5	13.0	12.3	33.3	27.9	0	0	0
3rd Last	11.5	11.3	11.1	13.2	37.7	15.2	0	0
4th Last	9.5	9.6	9.7	2.8	26.1	34.0	8.3	0
5th Last	8.5	8.7	8.9	0	8.4	34.5	26.7	4.3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Now the odds of getting each pick if the odds of finishing in each of the last 5 places were identical would be the average of the possibilities

1st Pick	2nd Pick	3rd Pick	4th Pick	5th Pick	6th Pick	7th Pick	8th Pick
12.3	11.82	11.28	19.98	20.2	16.87	7.0	0.86

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So if we assumed Ottawa had equal chance of finishing from last to 5th last next year they'd have a 44.93 chance of getting a worse pick, and a 34.5 chance of getting a better one. Along with a 19.98 chance of getting the same pick next year. Those odds would say if you assume Ottawa is a bottom 5 team next year, with equal chance of every spot then keep the pick this year. However with increasing value of picks I think I'd gamble the 45% chance of getting a worse pick for the 35% chance of getting a better one with a 12.3% chance of getting the 1st overall pick. Especially if I could get something small out of Colorado to make it happen.

As for the Avs side of things in an asset only world you could say the reciprocal of Ottawa's situation applies. But I'd suggest it doesn't. While Ottawa should be in an asset collection spot with the possibility of being bad on purpose or out of necessity(can't lose Karlsson for nothing) next year, and can afford to play the odds to try to get that 1 special prospect Colorado is on it's way up and could really use a 4th overall pick and a prospect like Zadina(if Montreal takes Kotkaniemi) now instead of playing the odds and waiting a year to possibly get a worse pick. If a player like Zadina is on the board I think Colorado would be very content with getting him right now.

For that reason I think it makes more sense for both teams to have the Avs have the 4th overall pick this year, though I don't believe that's what will happen. It would be an interesting game of chicken to see exactly how much Ottawa could pry out of Colorado to make that a reality. I'd suggest a 2nd round pick would be sensible, but like I said I expect Ottawa to keep the pick so I don't think it will happen

I went a little light on the math compared to the article Dom Luszczyszyn wrote for The Athletic, but I figured I'd link it here for anyone who has a subscription to The Athletic as it was interesting to read for me.

Which first-round pick should the Senators send to the...

He goes into an actual model to predict the percentages the Sens finish in each position and then uses the lotrery odds(like I did above) to determine what their odds to pick in each spot are based on the model. Both with and without Karlsson.Then he uses an expected pick value model to determine what the average value of the pick wil be next year compared to the average value of the 4th pick this year. I can't actually quote the article since it's behind a paywall, but I'll give you the end result percentages of picking better or worse both with and without Karlsson, and the expected pick numbers. It's a very small fraction of the article so I think that would be ok.

With Karlsson:
Better Pick: 29.9%
Same Pick: 17.0%
Worse Pick: 53.1%

Without Karlsson:
Better Pick: 38.7%
Same Pick: 30.3%
Worse Pick: 31.0 %

Average Pick Value(with a baseline of 1000 given to a 1st overall pick
2019 1st Round Pick (Without Karlsson): 758
2018 4th Overall Pick: 737
2019 1st Round Pick (With Karlsson): 672

So basically in an asset only world if they're planning on trading Karlsson they should give up the pick and if they're keeping him they shouldn't.

Sounds like they're keeping the pick, and I don't blame them for that decision. It's a pretty close call either way. It will be interesting to see exactly what direction they go next year, and whether Karlsson and Duchene are a part of that with or without extensions. That's the bigger decision to be made really.

 

[Gargyn]

To those Ottawa fans saying Colorado should pay the Sens to take this years pick instead of 19, please see Pierre LeBruns Twitter. It says what all CO fans were taking heat for yesterday.

For those that don’t follow twitter what did he say.

 

[JLo217]

For those that don’t follow twitter what did he say.

Sakic is 100% content letting the Sens pick either year. They have plans for both scenarios but won’t pay for a pick they already have.

 

[Goulet17]

 

[SoulDynasty]

Sakic is 100% content letting the Sens pick either year. They have plans for both scenarios but won’t pay for a pick they already have.

Which is and was the only logical conclusion to this. Anyone thinking there was anything more than a 0% chance of Sakic trying to trade for one of those picks was completely absurd. Made no sense at all then, and thankfully we can throw out that argument for good now.

 

[Jetsetter]

I feel terrible for the fans of the Sens.

 

[Hmmm]

That's the sad part about being a sports fan, you take the good times but the hard times suck a** but we are still there cussing them out because we are fans.

 

[Hasbro]

So no.