Speculation: Will Ottawa give the Avs the #4 overall?

[BeastoftheEast85]

OH MY GOD!

Montreal -ites has spread to Ottawa! We've got a pandemic on our hands....Symptoms? Completely delusional ideas on asset swaps to save their teams from drowning in the septic tank they fell into while drunk on the job.

No, nobody is going to jump into the septic tank and lett you stand on their shoulders to climb out, then think "Wow! Cool! Now I'm drowning in sh*t!"

There is one move and one move ONLY that Ottawa fans need concern themselves with, GET RID OF MELNYK, you need to organize your season ticket based and boycott the team,

Let Bettman know you are serious if you don't get rid of that guy NOTHING else matters

If you actually read my original post you would understand how ridiculous you sound. I am also not a Sens fan and don’t really care how the team performs.

Though I do agree Melnyk should sell the team.

 

[terrible dee]

If I agreed to flip a coin, if you call heads and win you get $1000, tails you get $400 you would certainly choose heads.

I now flip the coin and it is tails so you get nothing, do you regret picking heads?

There's this thing called probability. You make the best decision possible with the information you have. You don't give up a top 4 pick for a "we might finish bottom four next year and maybe even win the lottery."

So to answer your question, no I will not come back to say I am wrong if they strike first overall next year. Could it happen? Absolutely, but the best decision isn't to gamble on that very unlikely outcome. The odds that they end up with an equivalent or better pick next year are far less.

That is the most nonsensical B.S I may have ever read in my life

How's this: You trade me your overrated center for a huge return including your choice of first round picks, this year or next, you end up #4 in a draft where of the first 10 only the top two picks are locked in, and from 3-10 its a free for all, in addition to that your team is so completely screwed up that you are the consensus pick for the worst team in hockey next year.

My team is starting to gel and things couldn't be better, I either get a good player this year (Maybe) or a very realistic shot at #1st overall next year, and if not that chance to draft at around the same spot, I'm also integrating a bunch of young players into my system and would like to stagger my top prospects a little so guys can get acclimated to the league and team one at
a time

Either way, I win

Either way you lose

Kepp your $1000, Keep your $400, I spend that much on a weekend out and don't sweat chump change, nor do I play kids games flipping coins while Rome burns.

You are either an Astroturfer who has been sent to try and justify the decision to keep the pick, or you are just really.....really......not that smart

 

[sheriff bart]

Lot of variables, mainly Karlsson or what you can get for him, rookies stepping in, etc.
Also on how Ottawa perceives the value of players at 4.

I think they keep it but it’s a toss up.

I think they should keep it. Way too may variables. So much more likely to end up drafting 5-15 next year than improving on the pick position. Also, they would be getting a guy this year and in their system sooner rather than kicking the can down the road.

 

[LAKings88]

I think they should keep it. Way too may variables. So much more likely to end up drafting 5-15 next year than improving on the pick position. Also, they would be getting a guy this year and in their system sooner rather than kicking the can down the road.

It’s true, just that tingly feeling of watching Colorado take Jack Hughes at number 1 is a bit scary to deal with I imagine. Whatever it is, make the decision and don’t look back I guess.

 

[666]

List of 4OV since lockout:

Year	Team	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	PTS
2017	Colorado Avalanche	Cale Makar	D
2016	Edmonton Oilers	Jesse Puljujarvi	RW	93	13	15	28
2015	Toronto Maple Leafs	Mitchell Marner	C	159	41	89	130
2014	Calgary Flames	Samuel Bennett	C	241	42	47	89
2013	Nashville Predators	Seth Jones	D	393	45	137	182
2012	New York Islanders	Griffin Reinhart	D	37	0	2	2
2011	New Jersey Devils	Adam Larsson	D	416	17	84	101
2010	Columbus Blue Jackets	Ryan Johansen	C	512	116	226	342
2009	Atlanta Thrashers	Evander Kane	LW	574	186	168	354
2008	St. Louis Blues	Alex Pietrangelo	D	617	80	277	357
2007	Los Angeles Kings	Thomas Hickey	D	409	22	89	111
2006	Washington Capitals	Nicklas Backstrom	C	815	209	590	799

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Bender]

The idea that the Avs would add anything at all for the Senators to give us what we are owed is comical.

The Avs are ready to pick at #16 tomorrow night and they'll get a good player there. If dorion decides he wants to put this all behind him and hand over #4, it's his right to do so. Otherwise, he'll have to forfeit their 2019 1st round pick to the Avs and will need to live with that decision for the next calendar year.

End of story.

For those mentioning Vegas as a 'surprise team' and anything can happen, I think you might want to look closer at that situation and the reasons why they were so good. Are the Senators a collection of cast-offs who feel like they've been slighted by every team in the league and feel like they weren't given the respect they deserve? I don't think so.

 

[topshelf15]

The idea that the Avs would add anything at all for the Senators to give us what we are owed is comical.

The Avs are ready to pick at #16 tomorrow night and they'll get a good player there. If dorion decides he wants to put this all behind him and hand over #4, it's his right to do so. Otherwise, he'll have to forfeit their 2019 1st round pick to the Avs and will need to live with that decision for the next calendar year.

End of story.

For those mentioning Vegas as a 'surprise team' and anything can happen, I think you might want to look closer at that situation and the reasons why they were so good. Are the Senators a collection of cast-offs who feel like they've been slighted by every team in the league and feel like they weren't given the respect they deserve? I don't think so.

After what has been said about the team this off season .......Yeah i can see Ottawa players wanting to show up the league next season

 

[Hasbro]

After what has been said about the team this off season .......Yeah i can see Ottawa players wanting to show up the league next season

Being capable of showing up the league is the issue.

 

[Stealth JD]

after seeing what Colorado did after dumping Duchene, i don't know what Ottawa couldn't have the same effect after dumping Hoffman. it could simply be addition by subtraction and the Sens won't completely suck. You've got to draft #4 this year if you're the Sens, and hope for the best next year. If they keep Karlsson and Stone...they're not completely helpless next year.

Defer to next year and keep this year's pick, Ottawa.

 

[topshelf15]

Being capable of showing up the league is the issue.

Like your team then???Humm,glass houses

 

[RockLobster]

Like your team then???Humm,glass houses

It's not that Ottawa is not capable of doing it, obviously the Avs last year showed it can happen.

However I do feel like at least some context needs to be placed here: The Avs went down to nearly the end of the wire to get the 8th seed in the Playoffs, and did so on the back of Nathan MacKinnon having not just a CAREER year, but an MVP-Caliber Career year; Mikko Rantanen having a PPG sophomore year; Tyson Barrie having a career offensive year; and Gabe Landeskog recording his 2nd best offensive year to date. A lot of things went right for Colorado with important players having career (or 2nd best) offensive years. All of that and they still got in pretty much at the end, and it was the last spot.

So it's not impossible for OTT to do it, I'll never say otherwise, but it I do strongly believe it will require players having absolutely insane years.

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

Here's a question for you.....does Montreal trade #3 overall for Duchane and Chabot?

They need a center...Duchane (for reasons I don't understand) is valued quite highly in that field of work,

They need a young D to make the loss of Sergey hurt less, Chabot is young and looks to be quite talented.....AND HE'S FRENCH DON'T CHA' KNOW!

Montreal would have to include some warm bodies in the deal as well, but nothing that would hurt, a couple of "B" prospects, like that giant ape of a kid...what's what's his name?

And that Russian prospect that was supposed to be good but hasn't been so far? What's his name?

Anyway, this lets the Senators draft Tkachuck, a guy who stands out, makes his presence known and would give the team a new face, focal point and attitude, he's also a guy who can play center (Not like Drouin can "Play" center, but REALLY play center....not like Duchane either, who is a winger who lines up in the middle)

Duchene is Froot Loops, to put it politely. He can only perform when nothing is expected of him, and much, much, much will be expected of him if he's in Montréal. He'll be expected to be a star, produce a ton and be one of the faces of the franchise. Also, he bristled when Turris was outperforming him so...We don't really want to trade Chabzz, he is a cornerstone piece for our upcoming (potential?) rebuild and we need him. We could trade Ceci, who is garbage but Dorion will push him as being a "shut-down guy" (rofl, don't look at reality that shows he gets swamped in shot attempts when he's on the ice) or someone else. Ceci is also French, or at least can handle himself.

The problem is we end up being garbage next year too so we end up with Zadina and nothing next year. Seems bad.
I'd rather just hope Duchene grows a pair over the summer, Ceci is catapulted into space and Chabzz can take charge with Karlsson's potential absence. Sorry.

 

[topshelf15]

It's not that Ottawa is not capable of doing it, obviously the Avs last year showed it can happen.

However I do feel like at least some context needs to be placed here: The Avs went down to nearly the end of the wire to get the 8th seed in the Playoffs, and did so on the back of Nathan MacKinnon having not just a CAREER year, but an MVP-Caliber Career year; Mikko Rantanen having a PPG sophomore year; Tyson Barrie having a career offensive year; and Gabe Landeskog recording his 2nd best offensive year to date. A lot of things went right for Colorado with important players having career (or 2nd best) offensive years. All of that and they still got in pretty much at the end, and it was the last spot.

So it's not impossible for OTT to do it, I'll never say otherwise, but it I do strongly believe it will require players having absolutely insane years.

Our best players either were injured or played through some bigger injuries,Stone played less that 60 games,EK wasnt EK after a pretty big procedure last off season...One of our hopeful kid broke his arm in preseason......The list of bad luck goes on and on ,why on earth would we go into next season thinking every piece of crappy luck that plagued us last season will repeat its self this next year???

Ottawa does have a great list of prospects and young players that should help a injury free core to start he season next year,names like White,Brown,Batherson,Formenton,Chalpik, Wolanin,Gustafson the 4OA...This nonsense about us being dead in the water and a forsure lottery team is far far too over blown

 

[Hasbro]

It's not that Ottawa is not capable of doing it, obviously the Avs last year showed it can happen.

However I do feel like at least some context needs to be placed here: The Avs went down to nearly the end of the wire to get the 8th seed in the Playoffs, and did so on the back of Nathan MacKinnon having not just a CAREER year, but an MVP-Caliber Career year; Mikko Rantanen having a PPG sophomore year; Tyson Barrie having a career offensive year; and Gabe Landeskog recording his 2nd best offensive year to date. A lot of things went right for Colorado with important players having career (or 2nd best) offensive years. All of that and they still got in pretty much at the end, and it was the last spot.

So it's not impossible for OTT to do it, I'll never say otherwise, but it I do strongly believe it will require players having absolutely insane years.

Not just a lot of things "going right" Sakic put in a ton of work improving the roster last offseason and given the absolute meltdown in Ottawa things are neither going right nor are they improving their roster for 2018-19.

 

[tucker3434]

Our best players either were injured or played through some bigger injuries,Stone played less that 60 games,EK wasnt EK after a pretty big procedure last off season...One of our hopeful kid broke his arm in preseason......The list of bad luck goes on and on ,why on earth would we go into next season thinking every piece of crappy luck that plagued us last season will repeat its self this next year???

Ottawa does have a great list of prospects and young players that should help a injury free core to start he season next year,names like White,Brown,Batherson,Formenton,Chalpik, Wolanin,Gustafson the 4OA...This nonsense about us being dead in the water and a forsure lottery team is far far too over blown

Any team that doesn’t make the playoffs is a lottery team, so that’s part of it.

 

[Dick Whitman]

We're so boned. Keep the pick I guess and hope Anderson has one of 'those' years next year.

 

[topshelf15]

Any team that doesn’t make the playoffs is a lottery team, so that’s part of it.

Yep and ,we are a team that is more than capable of making the playoffs...

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Erik Karlsson
For
Tyson Barrie & 4th Overall Pick

So it becomes

Karlsson
for
Duchene and Barrie

 

[tucker3434]

Yep and ,we are a team that is more than capable of making the playoffs...

In today’s NHL, there are 31 teams that are capable of making the playoffs. The odds of it happening vary.

Ottawa had a lot go wrong this year and puck luck tends to average out to neutral. But that doesn’t mean it fully corrects the next year.

As it stands now, I think Ottawa will be better next year, but I’ll be surprised if their name isn’t in the lottery.

 

[Sensung]

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/article/the-math-behind-ottawa-s-draft-decision-1.1119232

To provide some much needed logic to this discussion.

 

[Spilot23]

Needless to say that this draft will be fun to watch. Nice to see that both teams benefited from that trade. Sens got the better player and Avs got a massive haul that still needs to be proven before declared the clear winner in this trade. But to me Avs benefited so much which I didn't expect. After those games in Sweden I already thought it was over and we would be in the bottom standing again. But Mackinnon went on a MVP caliber season, Rants being PPG as a sophomore and our D improved alot after Girard coming in. So to me whether the Sens keeps the pick or not, I'll be happy with the outcome anyway.

 

[EdAVSfan]

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/article/the-math-behind-ottawa-s-draft-decision-1.1119232

To provide some much needed logic to this discussion.

Yup, this is pretty much been discussed ad nauseum.

The sens shouldn’t give up the pick. Odds are in their favour.

In the same way the avs shouldn’t give the sens their 16th overall and 2019 1st to get the 4th this year.

Odds are decent that the sens pick is worse than this year. But the lottery hasn’t taken place yet. So I’m pretty sure the Avs will happily draft 10-20, knowing there’s a chance at a top 3 pick, while not having to have a terrible season to have a chance.

 

[Shad]

That is the most nonsensical B.S I may have ever read in my life

How's this: You trade me your overrated center for a huge return including your choice of first round picks, this year or next, you end up #4 in a draft where of the first 10 only the top two picks are locked in, and from 3-10 its a free for all, in addition to that your team is so completely screwed up that you are the consensus pick for the worst team in hockey next year.

My team is starting to gel and things couldn't be better, I either get a good player this year (Maybe) or a very realistic shot at #1st overall next year, and if not that chance to draft at around the same spot, I'm also integrating a bunch of young players into my system and would like to stagger my top prospects a little so guys can get acclimated to the league and team one at
a time

Either way, I win

Either way you lose

Kepp your $1000, Keep your $400, I spend that much on a weekend out and don't sweat chump change, nor do I play kids games flipping coins while Rome burns.

You are either an Astroturfer who has been sent to try and justify the decision to keep the pick, or you are just really.....really......not that smart

I didn't come to a hockey forum for a logical debate, but I've certainly found logical fallacies.

 

[Canadian Game]

Erik Karlsson
For
Tyson Barrie & 4th Overall Pick

So it becomes

Karlsson
for
Duchene and Barrie

More like

Karlsson and 4th overall (Zadina/Tkachuk/other)
For
Duchene and Barrie.

Showing the 4th overall in the trade really shows the reality of what Ottawa would be facing.

Regardless of Ottawa keeps the 4th overall or defers it, the Duchene trade will likely end up as a poor deal for Ottawa.

 

[Hasbro]

Karlson, Bowers, Turris, Hammond and a 3rd for

Duchene and Barrie.