Will Matthews hit 70 goals in a season in his career?

[Joey Hoser]

How many of Gretzky's 92 were empty netters or against bad teams?

Anyone know?

Didn't think so.

 

[Zybalto]

Matthews has 9 goals in 8 games vs Ottawa and 9 goals in 9 games vs Van City this year in the Scotia North Div.

That's 18 of his 40 goals and almost 1/2 this year production against only 2 non playoff teams. That's an 87 goal pace on a full season just for context.

Unfortunately your analysis over the last 83 games production together, overlaps the last 49 of this season [=~60%] that is badly skewed and tainted by the above factor I quoted, on this 1 year anomaly.

So for future forecasting and predicting the sample set of this year really shouldn't be the bases as we know beginning next year there will be no more all Canadian Div and only playing 6 different teams in a regular season.

All Im saying is that he had 26 goals in 34 games once he and Marner were put on the same line last year against the whole league.

There are so many factors to consider with this small a sample. Is he going to score more goals against a whole league on non-playoff teams? maybe.

Did his wrist injury play a part in his decrease in goals during the middle of the season and did the fact the team didn't play Ottawa or the Canucks a ton when he was hurt make a difference in your percentages? maybe.

The only way to know is to watch things play out I guess. Going full "half empty" when we may be looking at one of the greatest goal scorers in history blossoming before our eyes who actually plays for the Leafs. Better to soak it in and enjoy the moment than try to find ways to tear it down IMO.

 

[Zybalto]

Vancouver and Ottawa rank 26th and 28th defensively this year- Matthews can expect a similar share of games vs. Bottom 6 defenses in every normal year too.

Putting aside the fact you are equating goals-against purely with defense (Yea im calling you out!), I'd imagine Matthews would have a field day in the East with 3 of the 5 leakiest teams in the NHL there.

 

[zeke]

Putting aside the fact you are equating goals-against purely with defense (Yea im calling you out!), I'd imagine Matthews would have a field day in the East with 3 of the 5 leakiest teams in the NHL there.

I am trying to speak Mess' language.

 

[zeke]

East: 432 games, 1273 goals = 2.95 goals per game per team
North: 362 games, 1059 goals = 2.93 goals per game per team
West: 418 games, 1206 goals = 2.89 goals per game per team
Central: 430 games, 1211 goals = 2.82 goals per game per team

North isn't a particularly high scoring division despite arguably having the best individual scoring talent of any division.

 

[Apotheosis]

East: 432 games, 1273 goals = 2.95 goals per game per team
North: 362 games, 1059 goals = 2.93 goals per game per team
West: 418 games, 1206 goals = 2.89 goals per game per team
Central: 430 games, 1211 goals = 2.82 goals per game per team

North isn't a particularly high scoring division despite arguably having the best individual scoring talent of any division.

Arguably?

 

[ToneDog]

How many of Gretzky's 92 were empty netters or against bad teams?

Anyone know?

Didn't think so.

No idea but what I do know is 99 did it against the whole league and some pretty bad goalies.

 

[TheScandal89]

As great of a goal scorer as he is, I don't see it happening, if Ovechkin couldn't I don't think Matthews could. I'd be happy enough with him being the first Leaf to hit 60

Let's not forget we go back to facing tougher competition next year, the defence in the North Division is not the greatest.

I am, however, extremely happy that he most likely will win the Rocket Richard award as the first Leaf to ever do that.

 

[Golden_Jet]

He’s only played 49 games. 66 goal pace actually.

That’s true, but pace doesn’t matter in order to get a season high of 70.
I think he can get to 60 though.

 

[zeke]

Since Keefe starting treating him like a superstar for the first time in his career, Matthews has been at a 62 goal pace through 93 games now - and that's with a PP that has sputtered for long stretches, and which gets very few opportunities compared to most teams.

It's pretty easy to see that pace bumped up to 70+ when the PP gets hot and/or given more opportunities.

Some empty net goals would help too.

 

[ZEBROA]

I hope he does, but i dont think he will. Playing this many games in a short span, makes more teams tierd and should result in snipers scoring more goals. But thats just a feeling. Got no stats to back that up, guess i dont care. As long as we win he can score 0g.

 

[zeke]

As great of a goal scorer as he is, I don't see it happening, if Ovechkin couldn't I don't think Matthews could. I'd be happy enough with him being the first Leaf to hit 60

Let's not forget we go back to facing tougher competition next year, the defence in the North Division is not the greatest.

I am, however, extremely happy that he most likely will win the Rocket Richard award as the first Leaf to ever do that.

East: 432 games, 1273 goals = 2.95 goals per game per team
North: 362 games, 1059 goals = 2.93 goals per game per team
West: 418 games, 1206 goals = 2.89 goals per game per team
Central: 430 games, 1211 goals = 2.82 goals per game per team

North isn't a particularly high scoring division despite arguably having the best individual scoring talent of any division.

 

[TheScandal89]

East: 432 games, 1273 goals = 2.95 goals per game per team
North: 362 games, 1059 goals = 2.93 goals per game per team
West: 418 games, 1206 goals = 2.89 goals per game per team
Central: 430 games, 1211 goals = 2.82 goals per game per team

North isn't a particularly high scoring division despite arguably having the best individual scoring talent of any division.

I blame Calgarys crappy offence for us not being the highest scoring division lol

 

[zeke]

I blame Calgarys crappy offence for us not being the highest scoring division lol

They've got lots of scorers. Must not be too easy a division to score in.

 

[Golden_Jet]

They've got lots of scorers. Must not be too easy a division to score in.

Interesting on your goals per game per team, how does the North do in goals against vs the other divisions.
Will also be interesting to see how modified divisions compare to historical in the 2 categories of total goals for and against per team, when all is said and done.

 

[Once]

He realistically collects a few 60 goal seasons. I do think, however, that if the stars aligned and everything went perfectly (no debilitating injuries, lethal PP, etc.), he could notch 70 at his peak.

 

[zeke]

Interesting on your goals per game per team, how does the North do in goals against vs the other divisions.
Will also be interesting to see how modified divisions compare to historical in the 2 categories of total goals for and against per team, when all is said and done.

Well....goals against would be the exact same number as goals for, of course.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Well....goals against would be the exact same number as goals for, of course.

Oh ya duh, this year that’s right.

 

[Notsince67]

Lets try to keep him healthy and have him hit 50 on an annual basis first. I believe the 70 goal seasons are a thing of the past, cannot happen in today's NHL with goalies equipment and all. But I can definitely see him as 50 goal a season player flirting with close to 60 a couple of times.

He would have easily eclipsed 55 goals this season if we played a full 82 game schedule.

I see Matthews if all health holds up, plays rest of career with Marner, he will be a top 5 NHL goals scored for his career.

I think Matthews has more to give as does Marner. Thinking these boys have peaked is a bit premature.
70 goals would require a big season but with a functioning powerplay, there is no reason why it couldnt be reached.

 

[Byron Bitz]

If your asking if he can, the answer is yes he is capable of it. If your asking if he for sure will the answer is no. I would give him about a 30% chance if doin it.

 

[WillyC]

It's quite possible, Auston Matthews becomes a better hockey player over the next 4 years... as in, much better at scoring than NHL goalies become at stopping goals.

 

[hamzarocks]

Nah I see him being a 55-60 goal scorer the next 5 years and taking 4-5 rockets.

No one is hitting 70 goals or 150 points in a proper NHL

 

[HandshakeLineRespect]

In a career year where he stays 100% healthy, plays 82 games, everything goes right for him, bags a few empty netters ya he can hit 70.

 

[MSZ]

How many of Gretzky's 92 were empty netters or against bad teams?

Anyone know?

Didn't think so.

Not sure about ENs. But against non playoff teams(Hartford, Washington, Detroit, Leafs), he had 14G, 17A, 31pts in 12 games.

 

[saffronleaf]

I know this is a bit silly but especially now that he's good defensively and trusted to close out games... he should pot a few empty net goals. He has like what zero this year? Could be the difference between, say, a 65 goal season and a 70 goal season.