Will Matthews hit 70 goals in a season in his career?

[Leafsfan74]

I am going to go off of my usual sober view of the sport and defy logic and suggest that yes, he can score 70. The odds are strongly against him and I would hope this objective is never his priority over wins and Cups. Cup winners are by far the most admired in this sport. However, he has the tools.

My reasoning for this is that he illustrated in the season that he can be more than just a lethal shot-sniper, he can also drive and make quick, flashy moves in tight spaces when needed. This alone has contributed to a few goals this year that I wouldn't normally see him score in the past. I can count off the top of my head at least four, and I'm sure I've seen probably twice as many in this short season. I don't think he should become a driving goal scorer, that would create more injuries, but, he can pick his spots and win.

I also think if the Leafs can be a team that draws more penalties, and, their PP gets on track as it was early in this season, you can probably add 40-50% more goals for him on special teams if he finds a groove in a season.

Then there is the factor I think can be a difference maker, at least as long as he is a Leafs: the salary power the Leafs have. Oilers went 9-0 against the Sens, the one team that just happens to have the least use of Cap space in the North. Coincidence? Say what you will, but spending matters, the rich will get richer and will still demand the ability to always have top players and dynamic talent. Middle of the pack teams play the trap for a reason.

A great goal scorer like Matthews becomes that much more lethal with talented teammates. I've said before, if he and Marner both stay on the same line together their career, the Leafs career record book will be theirs. Imagine being able to say that about this 100+ year franchise? This is not just once in a generation, these are historic numbers ranging over 100 years.

Now, go and win the Cup!

 

[Mugzy97]

If OV never did it, then I can’t see Matthews doing it.

OV had 65 one year, imagine how many posts he hit that year? A little puck luck likely could have pushed him to 70

 

[Holymakinaw]

I think he will hit 55 without anything going really well. You think if he played 33 more games this year he would only get 15 goals?

Who knows? But he's scored at a pace way above his career average, so it's LIKELY that on any given year, he would score at a lower pace. It's always possible he has an "insane" year like this one, but those are super rare, and unlikely to happen multiple years.

So yeah, if THIS year was an 82 game year, he could have possibly done it. Almost every other year? No.

 

[Mugzy97]

Who knows? But he's scored at a pace way above his career average, so it's LIKELY that on any given year, he would score at a lower pace. It's always possible he has an "insane" year like this one, but those are super rare, and unlikely to happen multiple years.

So yeah, if THIS year was an 82 game year, he could have possibly done it. Almost every other year? No.

You're saying that as if he isn't young and getting better. He's playing above his career average because he's getting better at hockey.

Marchand has been well over a point per game for 5 seasons, but his "career average" or total career points is still well behind games played. He didn't hit point per game until his 28-29 yr old season. Was he not LIKELY to hit PPG for the last 5 years?

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think he will hit 55 without anything going really well. You think if he played 33 more games this year he would only get 15 goals?

Yeah I'd say he's almost a lock to hit 55 at some point. I'd also say the odds of him hitting 60 are better than 50%.

 

[Holymakinaw]

You're saying that as if he isn't young and getting better. He's playing above his career average because he's getting better at hockey.

Marchand has been well over a point per game for 5 seasons, but his "career average" or total career points is still well behind games played. He didn't hit point per game until his 28-29 yr old season. Was he not LIKELY to hit PPG for the last 5 years?

And you're assuming he'll have career years every year now, or something. LOL. No, he won't. He'll be up & down, like everyone else. He MIGHT have another year like this, but look at Ovechkin.

How many 60+ goal seasons did Ovie, the greatest pure goal scorer in the NHL, ever have? ONE. And he never hit 70.

Matthews is shooting at a percentage of 19% or something right now. That's unusually high. That, and the likelyhood of missed games, will make what you're "hoping for", unlikely. Anything is possible, of course. But some things are simply unlikely.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You're saying that as if he isn't young and getting better. He's playing above his career average because he's getting better at hockey.

Marchand has been well over a point per game for 5 seasons, but his "career average" or total career points is still well behind games played. He didn't hit point per game until his 28-29 yr old season. Was he not LIKELY to hit PPG for the last 5 years?

This seems so obvious, how anyone that follows the Leafs needs to have this explained to them is beyond me.

 

[Suntouchable13]

OV had 65 one year, imagine how many posts he hit that year? A little puck luck likely could have pushed him to 70

I am not going to argue. I hope he does it, it will be a treat to watch.

 

[zeke]

What people don't seem to realize is that Matthews is close to a 70gl pace even though the PP has been ice cold AND even though the team gets some of the fewest PP opportunities in hockey.

That's what's truly incredible - to score at this kind of pace usually would require a red hot PP with tons of PP minutes. But he's doing it without either.

So imagine what happens when the PP finally gets hot again. Or heaven forbid what happens if the Leafs started getting a reasonable amount of PP opportunities.

P.s. for everyone saying it's only 49gms.......nope. he's been comfortably over a 60gl pace since Keefe took over...100gms ago.

 

[Confucius]

3 games left all he needs is 2, 5 goal games for 50. Not impossible... lol

 

[Holymakinaw]

This seems so obvious, how anyone that follows the Leafs needs to have this explained to them is beyond me.

I don't need it explained to me, Binky. I understand how "peak years" works. And I agree that Matthews is just entering his, and the next 4-5 seasons should be great.

But that STILL doesn't mean we should expect 70 goals from him.

 

[Lauro]

As mentioned his health and especially an at least normal PP are big factors, but Marner's health as well!

 

[Hogan86]

Hes on a wild tear this season, and his 40 goals in 49 games is 67 goal pace for 82 games. He may come close, but to replicate what hes done this year, and do it even better, I cant see it happening.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Hes on a wild tear this season, and his 40 goals in 49 games is 67 goal pace for 82 games. He may come close, but to replicate what hes done this year, and do it even better, I cant see it happening.

I'm not sure why you would assume he can't do this again. It's not like he's getting lucky goals and a disproportionate amount of empty netters, or something.

Guy couldn't even shoot for 3-4 weeks

 

[Mess]

Auston Matthews Splits

Splits	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	GWG	OTG
Home	25	24	12	36	18	6	3	4	0	0	6	2
Road	24	16	12	28	5	4	7	9	0	0	6	0
In Wins	31	30	20	50	33	8	7	9	0	0	12	2
In Losses	12	4	3	7	-7	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
Overtime Losses	6	6	1	7	-3	0	2	2	0	0	0	0
JAN	9	6	4	10	0	0	3	3	0	0	3	0
FEB	11	12	9	21	10	4	4	6	0	0	3	0
MAR	13	6	5	11	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	2
APR	13	12	6	18	5	2	2	3	0	0	3	0
MAY	3	4	0	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Monday	8	8	2	10	2	2	2	2	0	0	2	0
Tuesday	4	3	2	5	-3	0	2	3	0	0	0	0
Wednesday	9	5	6	11	6	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
Thursday	9	9	6	15	6	2	2	3	0	0	3	1
Friday	3	0	0	0	-3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Saturday	12	12	6	18	11	2	3	4	0	0	5	1
Sunday	4	3	2	5	4	0	1	1	0	0	1	0
Scotia North	49	40	24	64	23	10	10	13	0	0	12	2
vs MTL	9	7	6	13	5	2	2	3	0	0	2	0
vs OTT	8	9	7	16	5	2	3	4	0	0	1	0
vs CGY	9	5	4	9	4	2	2	2	0	0	2	0
vs EDM	6	5	1	6	1	0	1	1	0	0	2	1
vs VAN	9	9	1	10	4	4	1	2	0	0	4	0
vs WPG	8	5	5	10	4	0	1	1	0	0	1	1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[WillyC]

I definitely can see Auston Matthews scoring 70 goals.

a few more years of Mitch Marner on his wing... watch for 50 goals in 39 games.

 

[Mess]

Hes on a wild tear this season, and his 40 goals in 49 games is 67 goal pace for 82 games. He may come close, but to replicate what hes done this year, and do it even better, I cant see it happening.

In 2019-20 when Matthews played against the full NHL he scored 47 goals in 70 games = 55 goal pace.

Against the 6 Canadian teams only he is on pace for 67 goals in 82 games. This is a 1 year only unique situation and not the standard this prediction should be based on.

When we return to normalcy next year and AM plays against the full NHL again his goal production pace would be expected to go DOWN and not UP as the QofC increases. IMO

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't need it explained to me, Binky. I understand how "peak years" works. And I agree that Matthews is just entering his, and the next 4-5 seasons should be great.

Good to know twinky. I look forward to that knowledge being reflected in your future posts instead of the nonsense you've been spewing to this point.

But that STILL doesn't mean we should expect 70 goals from him.

I already said I'd set the probability of him hitting 70 at about 15%. If you think that means I'm saying you should expect it then you need some other things explained to you as well.

 

[Buds17]

I'd only lean towards 'no' because it's a feat that has been accomplished by only eight players in league history. There's also that the mark hasn't been achieved since 92-93. Can't rule out any player ever reaching or eclipsing that total again though and Matthews is one of the best bets to do so IMO.

 

[Sweetpotato]

Highly doubtful but not impossible.

 

[Zybalto]

In 2019-20 when Matthews played against the full NHL he scored 47 goals in 70 games = 55 goal pace.

Against the 6 Canadian teams only he is on pace for 67 goals in 82 games. This is a 1 year only unique situation and not the standard this prediction should be based on.

When we return to normalcy next year and AM plays against the full NHL again his goal production pace would be expected to go DOWN and not UP as the QofC increases. IMO

One thing to take into consideration is the Marner factor here.

How many goals is Matthews pacing for since one of the best setup players in hockey was put on his wing? (Wonder why no one thought of putting them together full time)?

Incidentally, it happened in the middle of a game 83 games ago against the Wings.

In those 83 games under Keefe and with Marner, Matthews has 66 goals.

So in other words, Matthews is pacing for almost the exact number of goals with Marner as a linemate this year as last year.

 

[AvroArrow]

Doubt it. I'll be happy if he hits 60, which he can if he stays healthy. 70 seems like a stretch, but if anyone in the current NHL can do it, it's him.

 

[Mess]

One thing to take into consideration is the Marner factor here.

How many goals is Matthews pacing for since one of the best setup players in hockey was put on his wing? (Wonder why no one thought of putting them together full time)?

Incidentally, it happened in the middle of a game 83 games ago against the Wings.

In those 83 games under Keefe and with Marner, Matthews has 66 goals.

So in other words, Matthews is pacing for almost the exact number of goals with Marner as a linemate this year as last year.

Matthews has 9 goals in 8 games vs Ottawa and 9 goals in 9 games vs Van City this year in the Scotia North Div.

That's 18 of his 40 goals and almost 1/2 this year production against only 2 non playoff teams. That's an 87 goal pace on a full season just for context.

Unfortunately your analysis over the last 83 games production together, overlaps the last 49 of this season [=~60%] that is badly skewed and tainted by the above factor I quoted, on this 1 year anomaly.

So for future forecasting and predicting the sample set of this year really shouldn't be the bases as we know beginning next year there will be no more all Canadian Div and only playing 6 different teams in a regular season.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'd only lean towards 'no' because it's a feat that has been accomplished by only eight players in league history. There's also that the mark hasn't been achieved since 92-93. Can't rule out any player ever reaching or eclipsing that total again though and Matthews is the best bet to do so IMO.

FYP.

 

[zeke]

Matthews has 9 goals in 8 games vs Ottawa and 9 goals in 9 games vs Van City this year in the Scotia North Div.

That's 18 of his 40 goals and almost 1/2 this year production against only 2 non playoff teams. That's an 87 goal pace on a full season just for context.

Unfortunately your analysis over the last 83 games production together, overlaps the last 49 of this season [=~60%] that is badly skewed and tainted by the above factor I quoted, on this 1 year anomaly.

So for future forecasting and predicting the sample set of this year really shouldn't be the bases as we know beginning next year there will be no more all Canadian Div and only playing 6 different teams in a regular season.

Vancouver and Ottawa rank 26th and 28th defensively this year- Matthews can expect a similar share of games vs. Bottom 6 defenses in every normal year too.