0 incentive for Chabot to sign right now.
Based on last year, what is Chabot worth? The comparable is probably Aaron Ekblad who signed a deal worth 7.5M per year, so at the very least Chabot can get that.
If he comes in this year and puts up 65+pts, you are looking at 8M+ at least. Even if he gets injured for the entire season, he isn't getting much less than 7.5M, so there is very little risk in waiting until after the season.
Chabot is worth between 10-11 percent of the cap on a 7-8 year term. That puts him in similar company to Doughty, Karlsson, Ekblad, and Pietrangelo. 8 years at 8.72M would be a nice number.
The big problem is that Chabot's agent has to have an idea that if they wait until July 1st 2020, someone will roll the dice with an Aho type offer sheet with low compensation. 5 years at 8.5 with front loaded signing bonuses would be more lucrative than 8 years at 8-9 million because while there isn't as much total money in the deal, it sets Chabot up to become a UFA right in the middle of his prime where he will get a lot more than 8-9 million on the first 3 years of his next contract.
That creates a situation where unless the Senators are going to give him the Aho deal right now, there's no point in Chabot signing. He'd be taking lower than what he can expect from a different team on July 1st as a free agent. At the same time, if the Sens are willing to give him the Aho deal, there's no point in them caving and giving it to him now. They might as well try to get a better deal and then only give Chabot the Aho deal if they are forced to do it by an offer sheet.
If the Senators know they cannot match that Aho deal, and Chabot doesn't re-sign this year, he'll get traded before July 1st. It would be insane for any team to leave a young star player open to be stolen for only a (probable) late 1st/2nd/3rd. It's the same reason why I knew right away that CAR was going to match the Aho sheet. If a fan like me can predict this stuff, there's no way that professionals with a lot more experience and knowledge don't see it coming. I've been harping on the possibility of a Chabot offer exactly the same as the Aho one months before the Aho one happened. CAR had to know it was a possibility, so they only let things go to July 1st knowing they'd match a worst case scenario offer sheet. The Senators especially now after seeing the Aho offer sheet must know it's a possibility.
My prediction is that Chabot will get traded at the 2020 draft after "thumbing his nose" at a 7 year 6.72M extension that would have paid him more than Erik Karlsson got after a Norris win. What a jerk! We'll trade him for a package deal that includes a good young #4 defenseman, a few draft picks, and a decent prospect. We'll play Sesame Street by citing the number of assets to validate the trade as a win. At the same time, we'll blame the league for bullying us into having to do this because of signing bonuses.
If we're really lucky, the CBA gets clarified and the signing bonus issue is closed prior to Chabot being eligible for an offer sheet. If that happens, or if Melnyk is actually willing to match an Aho offer sheet, then the threat of Chabot leaving gets nullified.
