angusyoung
Back in the day, I was always horny!
Here's a challenge for the HFboards community :
I'm challenging you to find any magazine, "expert" or professional website that has predicted the Montreal Canadiens to finish 1st in their division, for any of the last 6 seasons (including the current offseason). Do this knowing that Montreal won their division title for 3 of the last 5 years.
I've done the same research myself, and while it's not exhaustive, the result is really mind blowing. How many expert have predicted a division title for the Habs over the last 5 years?
Answer : ONE! Just a single one!! And a guy I've never heard about. Look at those predictions :
2012-13
What experts predicted :
The Hockey Writers
1- Boston
2- Ottawa
3- Montreal
Bleacher report
1- Boston
2- Buffalo
3- Ottawa
4- Montreal
The Hockey News
1- Boston
2- Buffalo
3- Ottawa
4- Toronto
5- Montreal
2012-13 final standings
1- Montreal
2- Boston
3- Toronto
2013-14
What experts predicted :
The Hockey Writers
1- Boston
2- Detroit
3- Montreal
Bleacher Report
1- Boston
2- Tampa
3- Montreal
The Hockey News
1- Boston
2- Detroit
3- Ottawa
4- Montreal
2013-14 final standings
1- Boston`
2- Tampa
3- Montreal (just 1 point behind Tampa)
2014-15
What experts predicted :
2014-15"]The Hockey Writers
1- Boston
2- Tampa
3- Montreal
Bleacher Report
1- Tampa
2- Boston`
3- Montreal
The Hockey News
1- Boston
2- Tampa
3- Montreal
2014-15 final standings
1- Montreal
2- Tampa
3- Detroit
2015-16
What experts predicted :
The Hockey Writers
1- Tampa
2- Montreal
3- Florida
Bleacher Report
1- Tampa
2- Montreal
3- Ottawa
The Hockey News
1- Tampa
2- Detroit
3- Montreal
TSN
1- Tampa
2- Montreal
3- Detroit
2015-16 final standings
1- Florida
2- Tampa
3- Detroit
4- Boston
5- Ottawa
6- Montreal
2016-17
What experts predicted :
The Hockey Writers
1- Tampa
2- Montreal
3- Florida
Bleacher report
1- Tampa
2- Florida
3- Montreal
The Hockey News
1- Tampa
2- Florida
3- Montreal
TSN
1- Tampa
2- Montreal
3- Florida
ESPN
Out of 10 experts, 10 of them project Tampa to win the division
NHL.COM
Out of 20 experts, 17 project Tampa to win the division. 2 says it's gonna be Florida. And... tadam! You have one guy, the only one I could find in 5 years, who predicted Montreal would win the division. And he was right! Congratulations Rob Vollman!!
2016-17 final standings
1- Montreal
2- Ottawa
3- Boston
And the trend continues this offseason. Despite underestimating the Habs massively for 3 of the last 5 years, I'm still unable to find a single expert who projects the Habs to win their division in 2017-18. They project Tampa, who just missed the playoffs and replaced Drouin with Kunitz. I've seen Toronto, who lost 14 games in a row against Montreal. I've seen Ottawa too. But nobody is taking a chance on Montreal, once again.
So the question is : why are experts so often underestimating the Habs? Here's a few possible answers :
1- Experts underestimate the impact of a star goaltender on the overall result
2- Experts are shy about placing the Habs first, because of what they represent, and because this is a team loaded with emotivity, good and bad. They prefer to take a safe bet and place them 2nd or 3rd every year, so they avoid controversy.
3- The Habs players and coaching staff have been greatly underestimated over the years
4- Habs overachieved 3 years out of 5. I assume this will be a popular option, but it's hard to believe. Habs have the 7th best regular season record in the past 5 years. Such consistent success cannot be overachieving.
5- Any other explanation?
Nicely done!!!
I've pondered the same thing and believe its the intangibles that are not regarded in the correct manor. Its a team sport,yet many professional forecasters seem to look solely at individual ability and not an amalgamation of all assets.