Speculation: Why Dion's Next Contract Will Be Cap Friendly

[Durrr]

Anyone saying this isn't a good deal in the making needs to come to the realization that they just don't know what they're talking about.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Think about who he is replaced by.

I don't doubt Dion's value to the team, however, I am leary of all these long term contracts we are handing out. I know it was a different time, but 7.1 would put Dion ahead of Chara, this would bother me. Chara's the most impactful D man in the NHL, kinda hard to have Dion above him on salary. But as I said, I want to think about it, and where the market is today, under this salary cap. If it does indeed go up to 70M.

 

[Jtabo]

I don't doubt Dion's value to the team, however, I am leary of all these long term contracts we are handing out. I know it was a different time, but 7.1 would put Dion ahead of Chara, this would bother me. Chara's the most impactful D man in the NHL, kinda hard to have Dion above him on salary. But as I said, I want to think about it, and where the market is today, under this salary cap. If it does indeed go up to 70M.

At this point, I think Dion is better than Chara. Chara is still a good dman, but his play is really starting to decline lately.

 

[Liminality]

If the asking price he started at is 7.1m, doesn't that mean by negotiating the contract the cap hit will more than likely be lower anyways? Nonis isn't just going to agree to the first offer they create. Would love him to get down to 6.5-6.8 range.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

At this point, I think Dion is better than Chara. Chara is still a good dman, but his play is really starting to decline lately.

Dion had a good year last year, and is having a good year this year. If he can elevate his play and I do think making Team Canada will be an indicator of this. I would be more willing to pay him 7M per.

He needs to take that step into a legitimate #1 on a cup contender IMO. 7M is longterm franchise D money.

 

[Iskandm004]

6.8 for 6 years is good for me

 

[TheInsignia]

6.8 for 6 years is good for me

Yeah that's what I'm hoping to see.

 

[Jtabo]

Only way you see 6 years or less is if thats what Dion wants. He has all the power. You give him 7 or he gets 7 elsewhere. That 8th year gives us some power. If we sign him for 8 years, it is to lower his cap hit. So picture either:

7 years, 49-52.5 million (7 mil - 7.5 mil)

or

8 years, 54-58 million (6.75 - 7.25 mil cap hit)

I'd prefer the 8 year mark, and I think Dion would be more happy getting 8 years as well.

 

[Rare Jewel]

I like him a lot, Too much though.

Bouwmeester will be at 5.4, Hamhuis @ 4.5, Seabrook @ 5.8. I think he's better than these 3, But @ 7.1 even if it's comparable part of cap %, He was coming off a 60 point season when he signed his last deal.

The AAV really should be lower, But they should try and use the 30% variance to it's fullest.

 

[mikebel111*]

that is fine I think. My guess is they settle at 7.2 for 6 years

 

[On-the-Fly]

At 7 years you have to consider the dynamic nature of AAV as a percentage of overall cap. Cap just dropped, so I'd gamble and say 7 mil is a fairly safe number.

Can't lose Phaneuf through the upswing. He's a cornerstone, and it would set the development of the on ice product back a step if the Leafs don't get it done.

 

[BayStreetBullies*]

7 yrs/49 mil is ideal, imo.

 

[gabeliscious]

that is fine I think. My guess is they settle at 7.2 for 6 years

i would rather give him slightly more for less term but i suspect he want term. i wouldnt be surprised to see him give up $$ for the 8th year.

 

[pucci2001]

I don't understand why everyone keeps assuming that Phaneuf's next contract HAS to be at what he makes now or higher. I'm willing to bet it will actually be at a lower cap hit than he currently has.

There are a number of considerations.

Firstly, Phaneuf sees this as his team - and now that they are finally almost within reach of being a contender (a couple of pieces away), there's no way he is going to price himself out of town. He has already received his big payday - he doesn't have the same pressure to score big that a guy like Franson will have.

Secondly, Phaneuf will want a long term deal that sees him retire as a Leaf. If you're talking 8 years, that will take us til he's 37 years old - and it doesn't take a genius to know a 35 -37 year old Phaneuf with a $6.5 / $7M cap hit is not beneficial for the team.

Thirdly - there is a difference between pay and cap hit. While there are restrictions, I think you can expect a deal where he gets paid a little more in the first 2/3 years (maybe $7M) and it goes down to about $4M in the last years, giving him about a $5 - $5.5M cap hit overall.

There are a lot of considerations - it's not simply a matter of Player makes $X, so his next contract must go up.

If it is possible to sign him for 8 years with a cap hit under 6 million I would **** a brick. Sadly I don't think that is the case, its going to end up being a similar type to deal Clarkson's where we like the player and he bends us over a barrel in term and we end up spending 7 a year. I am hopeful though for a sub 6.5 cap hit. Anything less than he is currently getting paid would be great. If they can manipulate the salary per year so he is getting paid much less than his cap hit in the later years that would be good in case we have to deal him when he is starting to decline to a cap floor team or something.

 

[mikebel111*]

i would rather give him slightly more for less term but i suspect he want term. i wouldnt be surprised to see him give up $$ for the 8th year.

Agreed. I think that's what management wants. More money but less years.

 

[LeafsNation149]

Why are you guys crying like it's your money, he's the reason we're this far. He's been our 1st star every game so who cares if he makes a hundred thousand more than he should

 

[agropop]

6.5 x 8

 

[BayStreetBullies*]

Some people really have a problem with locking up our best players long-term.

 

[ACC1224]

Some people really have a problem with locking up our best players long-term.

Commitment issues.

 

[BillyD]

Some people really have a problem with locking up our best players long-term.

wrong thread

 

[Leafidelity]

7 years at 7.1 please. Phaneuf leaves and this isn't a playoff team anymore. He's the most important member of the Leafs right now.

 

[TMLegend]

7 years at 7.1 please. Phaneuf leaves and this isn't a playoff team anymore. He's the most important member of the Leafs right now.

It's questionable if they're a playoff team with him. But yeah, If Phaneuf leaves it's pretty much signaling another rebuild.

 

[selltrade]

I agree he needs to be signed and 7 mill is right on. Who becomes the roster casualties next year.. Cap will go up a few million, Franson needs a raise, as does Bolland and McClement... So bye bye to Kulemin, Ranger and Fraser Id say? Also RFAs are Reimer if not traded and Gardiner. Gonna be tough off-season.

 

[KLM-Line]

Exactly. I don't understand everyone saying "don't sign him for 8 years, he will be useless by the time he's 36". History has shown D don't hit their peak till their late 20s, and their prime years are generally from 28-34. He will be awesome for many years to come. I could see him playing till 40, he has become a very smart player.

No he hasn't. While he has become more mature and more responsible over the years he still is and always will be far from smart or ,mind you, VERY smart. Dion has other strengths. I am not concerned about the cap hit. The length however will cost us flexibility down the road as I expect nothing less than max length with a full NTC. Nonis won't care much about that though. His focus is set for the now - means Dion will be extended to his terms.

 

[Durrr]

that is fine I think. My guess is they settle at 7.2 for 6 years

If the offer is currently 7 years at 7.1.....why would he take years off for no reason??? If anything theyl do 8 at 6.75 or something.