Speculation: Why Dion's Next Contract Will Be Cap Friendly

[Drew75]

I don't understand why everyone keeps assuming that Phaneuf's next contract HAS to be at what he makes now or higher. I'm willing to bet it will actually be at a lower cap hit than he currently has.

There are a number of considerations.

Firstly, Phaneuf sees this as his team - and now that they are finally almost within reach of being a contender (a couple of pieces away), there's no way he is going to price himself out of town. He has already received his big payday - he doesn't have the same pressure to score big that a guy like Franson will have.

Secondly, Phaneuf will want a long term deal that sees him retire as a Leaf. If you're talking 8 years, that will take us til he's 37 years old - and it doesn't take a genius to know a 35 -37 year old Phaneuf with a $6.5 / $7M cap hit is not beneficial for the team.

Thirdly - there is a difference between pay and cap hit. While there are restrictions, I think you can expect a deal where he gets paid a little more in the first 2/3 years (maybe $7M) and it goes down to about $4M in the last years, giving him about a $5 - $5.5M cap hit overall.

There are a lot of considerations - it's not simply a matter of Player makes $X, so his next contract must go up.

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[Hawaiinleaf]

i agree with this actually

 

[Eb]

If he doesn't get paid like a #1 defenceman like he is, it's a slap in his face and to the whole organization.

 

[notdoneyet]

8x6.5 = 52M

9-9-8-7-6-5-4-4 = 52M

worth every penny

first 4 years big money through his FA years

 

[pucci2001]

I wouldn't consider it a slap in the face at all. It would be respect, for the organization and the fanbase. He hit it big already, he will be paid quite well again. I could see this happening if Dion truly cares about winning, he could easily talk to management about what they plan to do with the money they save by him signing a discounted contract too, he would be entitled to know that information considering he is the captain and would be doing the organization a huge favour.

6m or less cap hit per year would give Nonis so much wiggle room to finagle something and get some real players to push this team into cup favorite status. Legitimately this team is only one or two pieces away or even just getting some more experience and developing away from being a scary threat for the cup in my opinion. A legitimate top 4 defensive minded Dman and then the goalies playing like Bernier has so far this season and we are pretty much there, though I would like someone better on the 4th line with either Orr/McLaren...maybe Ashton could grow into the guy we need but I don't know.

Edit: I am not 100% certain how the bonuses work on contracts I believe it counts as cap hit for the year after he meets the requirements for the bonus but perhaps they could put a bonus clause in Dion's deal that if we make it to the cup he gets an extra 2 million or something, it would be great incentive and a great thank you for him taking the haircut, also his last few years of his next deal could and should be bonus laden if I am correct in how I think it works, that way the cap hit in manageable if his play declines which inevitably at some point it will, great insurance for the team and great potential for Dion if he can sustain his level of play for the duration of his next contract.

 

[Drew75]

I really don't think he's going to say "I'm the number 1 D on this team, so I need to make $7M / year until I'm 37" ... and if he does, he'll be moved at the deadline. Nonis has shown he doesn't give in to those types of demands.

I could see something like <$(age)>:

$7(29) + $7(30) + $7(31) + $6(32) + $5(33) + $5(34) + $4(35) + $4(36) = $5.65M cap hit.

 

[Mess]

We'll see.

Nonis has done a good job of maintaining cap costs outside of Kessel.

For Phaneuf to take a home town discount so other players can make more and make the team more competitive happens with team players that buy into keeping a competitive team together.

As captain and expected to provided leadership this would certainly send a good message to his teammates that there is no "I" in team.

 

[Eb]

I really don't think he's going to say "I'm the number 1 D on this team, so I need to make $7M / year until I'm 37" ... and if he does, he'll be moved at the deadline. Nonis has shown he doesn't give in to those types of demands.

I could see something like <$(age)>:

$7(29) + $7(30) + $7(31) + $6(32) + $5(33) + $5(34) + $4(35) + $4(36) = $5.65M cap hit.

Nonis has showed, if you earned your contract, he will pay you accordingly (Kessel).

Phaneuf is a #1 defenceman, so again, he should get paid like one and most likely will.

 

[diceman934]

If he doesn't get paid like a #1 defenceman like he is, it's a slap in his face and to the whole organization.

What?

How does not over paying for a player a slap in the face of an organization?

 

[legendinblue]

I'm sticking to my opinion that he will get $7m per.

 

[diceman934]

Nonis has showed, if you earned your contract, he will pay you accordingly (Kessel).

Phaneuf is a #1 defenceman, so again, he should get paid like one and most likely will.

Kessel is an elite player.....Dion is not. Dion is a very good D man and should be paid as such, but that is at a 6 million a year ceiling for his contract and anything over that is a over payment on a long term deal.

 

[NarcoPolo]

I'd say $6m for 7 years is reasonable

 

[DPyro]

As captain and expected to provided leadership this would certainly send a good message to his teammates that there is no "I" in team.

 

[Eb]

Kessel is an elite player.....Dion is not. Dion is a very good D man and should be paid as such, but that is at a 6 million a year ceiling for his contract and anything over that is a over payment on a long term deal.

What?

How does not over paying for a player a slap in the face of an organization?

Not going to argue with you if you don't think he is a #1 dman.

 

[Razz]

I agree with this. They are going to scale Phaneuf's salary down as much as they can in the final years of the deal. Phaneuf in his mid-late 30's will be worth 4-5mil not 7-8.

They will front load him for the rest of his prime years and have his salary trail off in the back half. His cap hit will probably work out to the same as it is now but the most money will be made up front.

Easy signing.

 

[leafspring*]

I'd say $6m for 7 years is reasonable

A $6.750 @6 years and $10,000,000 signing bonus. His next contract would become easier to negotiate according to his level of play at that time. Dion would sign that tomorrow if it was offered

 

[leafstilldeath*]

Anything with what he is making at present i.e. 6.5 or below is a fair value for both Dion and the Leafs.
If he elevates his play this season then at max 7 mil nothing more. A cap hit of 7 mil for short-term is fine if Dion wants longer term than he has to give into the cap hit a decent cap hit for someone of his skill and given age I would live with 5.5-5.7 mil cap hit nothing more.

Dion is a good Defenceman but there is no way he is a #1 sought after D. Dion is no Chara, Weber etc...i.e. elite D and henceforth should max his value at 7 at most given his show this season. Or 6.5 or below as already stated.

If this is accomplished I will be fine.

 

[Sundinisagod]

I'd love to see Dion offer to take a pay cut for the sake of the team. He'd improve his image 10 fold, and I think his game would benefit with the reduced pressure and/or scrutiny that comes with a reduced price tag. Frankly, I don't see it happening...even though I think it's the smartest thing he could do right now.

 

[-DeMo-]

people always think players are gonna take a pay cut and 99% of the time they don't what makes phaneuf any different? he's not gonna take less then 6 million a year when he could get 7-7.5 on the open market easily. you think he's gonna take only a couple 100k more then what Clarkson signed? not gonna happen if we don't sign him in the 7 mill range I expect him to walk.

Edit: I have little doubt that if Phaneuf was willing to sign for less then 6 mill he would have re-signed prior to the start of this season.

 

[Durrr]

A $6.750 @6 years and $10,000,000 signing bonus. His next contract would become easier to negotiate according to his level of play at that time. Dion would sign that tomorrow if it was offered

Signing bonus' now count against the cap, which is why he'l be paid much more then people around here think Going to be a whole lot of angry uneducated fans. He's getting MINIMUM 6.5 over 8 years, if you think differently you really don't have a good understanding of the process or fail to see what most humans would do in the situation and try and get as much as they can.

 

[thewave]

I really don't think he's going to say "I'm the number 1 D on this team, so I need to make $7M / year until I'm 37" ... and if he does, he'll be moved at the deadline. Nonis has shown he doesn't give in to those types of demands.

I could see something like <$(age)>:

$7(29) + $7(30) + $7(31) + $6(32) + $5(33) + $5(34) + $4(35) + $4(36) = $5.65M cap hit.

Your right he just pays knuckles who can't skate 5.2m for 7 and Bozak 4.2m for 5.

Same contract extended is fine. 6-6.5 very fair

 

[diceman934]

Not going to argue with you if you don't think he is a #1 dman.

Where did I say he was not a #1 d man?


I just said he was not elite....not among the best D man in the NHL but in the next group.

 

[Jacob8hockey*]

it will be if he wants to stay in Toronto imo.

 

[mikebel111*]

We'll see.

Nonis has done a good job of maintaining cap costs outside of Kessel.

For Phaneuf to take a home town discount so other players can make more and make the team more competitive happens with team players that buy into keeping a competitive team together.

As captain and expected to provided leadership this would certainly send a good message to his teammates that there is no "I" in team.

What do u mean outside of kessel? He is an elite player and kessel is 100% deserving of that money

 

[Judas Tavares]

Out of any contract negotiation in the last several years, this one scares the crap out of me and I get the feeling this may go horribly wrong....