Who wins the best of 5 between the Blue Jackets and the Leafs?

[Cogburn]

If the Blue Jackets have a few players step up and find another gear, they take the series.

Toronto has the top end talent, but Columbus has stronger depth. Toronto has great offense, Columbus has a much better defense. Goaltending I would give to Columbus as well, given they have two very strong goaltenders, where Campbell I have some doubts about. Could be a fun series though.

 

[majormajor]

I wouldn't say it's comparable. Losing your 1 and 2 D and 3 top 6 forwards all for months isn't something you see everyday.

I don't really care but you're still pretending that the Leafs situation was worse than it was. None of their 4 big name forwards missed a single month, much less "months", Muzzin missed about a month, and Rielly missed about six weeks.

It's really not comparable. Of Columbus' top 4 forwards (Dubois, Bjorkstrand, Anderson, and Atkinson), Dubois is the only one to stay healthy. The other three missed 21, 26, and 44 games respectively. For a stretch in January and February half of the opening night roster was on IR.

 

[stevo61]

2 young teams so it will be exciting to see what type of play style catches on sooner. The Leafs could skate circles around a team trying to get their structure back or Columbus could frustrate the Leafs early and keep their skill out of it

 

[Pyrophorus]

I think goaltending is going to be the biggest wildcard in all of the series. A lot of goalies take a while to get in form during the season. With a five game series after a long break they won’t have that luxury. It will be interesting to see which goalies can get up to speed right away.

That would make it advantage Leafs, by a long shot.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

That would make it advantage Leafs, by a long shot.

I disagree. Andersen, like Luongo, seems like a goalie who gets better as he gets more work. Slight advantage Leafs imo.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I don't think it is noteworthy to use as an excuse. Other teams have dealt with the same or worse is all. Leafs suddenly deal with injuries and it's immediately cited for any struggles the team may have had, if not the former coach... it is always something! Rather than the team.

It was still a valid point that @Kamiccolo brought up how this season Toronto struggled with injuries and it was for the whole season since their lineup was not 100% healthy from opening night. I didn't realize there was some chart that says they weren't valid to bring up in the minds of non Leafs fans such as yourself.

 

[Pyrophorus]

Leafs are soft and seem to struggle against teams that play a strong defensive system. Have to go with the BJs here.

Why don't people do research? I say this is an agenda.
Confirmed by WestCoastOrca liking it.

 

[Pyrophorus]

I disagree. Andersen, like Luongo, seems like a goalie who gets better as he gets more work. Slight advantage Leafs imo.

You said both goalies would take time to adjust.
Add in the one team can score, and the other can't.

I think as a Duck, Andersen didn't face a lot of shots-as he has here.
He was still quite good.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

You said both goalies would take time to adjust.
Add in the one team can score, and the other can't.

I think as a Duck, Andersen didn't face a lot of shots-as he has here.
He was still quite good.

Yes. Both will need time to adjust which dilutes Toronto’s advantage in net imo.

 

[Pyrophorus]

Yes. Both will need time to adjust which dilutes Toronto’s advantage in net imo.

Increasing the offensive advantage.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

If the Blue Jackets have a few players step up and find another gear, they take the series.

Toronto has the top end talent, but Columbus has stronger depth. Toronto has great offense, Columbus has a much better defense. Goaltending I would give to Columbus as well, given they have two very strong goaltenders, where Campbell I have some doubts about. Could be a fun series though.

let's compare both teams forward group outside of each of their top 4 forwards (which Toronto blows Columbus out of the water in) and see how they stack up

Hyman > Foligno
Mikheyev > Milano
Kapanen > Wennberg
Johnsson >= Texier
Spezza >= Bemstrom
Kerfoot < Jenner
Clifford = Nash
Engvall < Anderson (he had a terrible year but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt)
So how does Columbus have better depth?

Columbus definitely has a better blueline, there is no denying that but I don't think the gap is nearly as large as many people make it out to be.

You're usually only using 1 goalie in the playoffs anyways and although Elvis was better than Freddie this year, it's tough to take Elvis over Freddie when you consider the body of work Freddie has put in over the past 4 or 5 years.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Increasing the offensive advantage.

Not really. The offensive advantage plus goaltending advantage is offset by the defensive one and coaching one. I think this ones a coin flip.

 

[Pyrophorus]

Not really. The offensive advantage plus goaltending advantage is offset by the defensive one and coaching one. I think this ones a coin flip.

The latter, which you don't know.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

The latter, which you don't know.

Well if it comes to that then we don’t know who will get better goaltending either. Andersen’s playoff numbers are certainly not elite.
Having said that I’d take Torts with his career numbers over a guy who has coached about half a season in the big leagues.

 

[majormajor]

let's compare both teams forward group outside of each of their top 4 forwards (which Toronto blows Columbus out of the water in) and see how they stack up

Hyman > Foligno
Mikheyev > Milano
Kapanen > Wennberg
Johnsson >= Texier
Spezza >= Bemstrom
Kerfoot < Jenner
Clifford = Nash
Engvall < Anderson (he had a terrible year but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt)
So how does Columbus have better depth?

Columbus definitely has a better blueline, there is no denying that but I don't think the gap is nearly as large as many people make it out to be.

You're usually only using 1 goalie in the playoffs anyways and although Elvis was better than Freddie this year, it's tough to take Elvis over Freddie when you consider the body of work Freddie has put in over the past 4 or 5 years.

I'm not saying who has better depth, but you're going to need to do more research than that.

Milano plays for the Ducks.

Wennberg and Nash might not even be in the starting twelve forwards, the Jackets have a lot of options if they're healthy.

Bemstrom is a better 200 foot player than Spezza and probably outscores him in the same system. That goes for a lot of these comparisons - you can't just count points when you're comparing a defensive system (third fewest goals against) with an offensive system (fifth most goals against).

I'm really not sure what you're comparing. Josh Anderson was the Jackets second best forward a year ago after Panarin, and here he is weighed against Pierre Engvall?

The lines I've been toying with look like this:

Bjorkstrand - Dubois - Anderson
Nyquist - Jenner - Atkinson
Texier - Foligno - Bemstrom
Foudy - Devin Shore - Robinson

Good arguments for working in Nash, Wennberg, Matteau, or Gerbe. Some include Stenlund but I don't think he's a serious option.

 

[BCNate]

I'm going with the team that has won a series in the last decade and a half.

 

[Sparksrus3]

Kind of interesting given Tampa is built like the Leafs and the Jackets killed them last year,


but IMO Leafs are better on paper.

They can be the Strat - O - Matic champs every year. It's about heart and soul on the ice and the Leafs are too pretty to win

 

[Merrrlin]

Wait, wait, are we talking about the Leafs, or are we talking about Seth Jones, Ryan Murray, Zach Werenski (albeit for only a couple weeks), Bjork, Atkinson, and Anderson? Not to mention Korpi in net and countless depth players.

I'm not trying to make this a pissing match about who has the worst injuries, but it is definitely a waste of an excuse to pretend the Leafs have some sort of entitled claim to being the better team because of injuries. Columbus could flip the narrative so easily.

"We lost our top two D men for significant time" - Well, Columbus has lost a lot more man games lost to injury than them, and with significant players, too.
"You can't discount Sheldon Keefe just because he's new, we blame our old coach" - Well, you can't say Andersen is a better goalie than Elvis either, in that case. Elvis has been a relevant NHL goalie about as long as your coach, with better save % than Andersen. As has been pointed out, Keefe's point % since the new year is not as high as Torts.
"We're better because we have 3 more wins" - Well, imagine if Columbus won even half of their 3 on 3 or shootout games? Then they'd be ahead of Toronto in the standings. I don't think 3 on 3 or shootout numbers matter much come playoff time.
"Top end talent" - I give the Leafs an edge in overall talent, sure. But if the rosters were reversed, Leafs fans and TSN would be touting Jones/Werenksi as basically the defensive version of what they call Matthews and Marner. There isn't some giant gap in talent like some choose to believe. Columbus' style is different, for sure, but it's given them pretty much the exact results this year as the Leafs.

I see this as basically a coin flip of a series, just like the standings would dictate, and I'm already salivating at being able to watch it. It will be exciting hockey by two good teams. But can we stop pretending the Leafs have all these ready made excuses for why they should have more respect than anyone else? Both teams can pick and choose to argue their own narrative, or to make excuses, forever.

I don't know what point you are making - I would gladly say the same thing about Columbus. If you think saying injuries affect a team's performance is "an excuse" or a "narrative" I am not sure what to tell you

 

[Merrrlin]

I don't really care but you're still pretending that the Leafs situation was worse than it was. None of their 4 big name forwards missed a single month, much less "months", Muzzin missed about a month, and Rielly missed about six weeks.

It's really not comparable. Of Columbus' top 4 forwards (Dubois, Bjorkstrand, Anderson, and Atkinson), Dubois is the only one to stay healthy. The other three missed 21, 26, and 44 games respectively. For a stretch in January and February half of the opening night roster was on IR.

It's like you've taken offence to something without understanding it. I am saying teams are affected by injuries, it's a reality. I was responding to someone saying everyone has injuries - they do, but some years, some teams have worse luck than others. That's a reality of sports, it always has been. It's something that makes sports so interesting. It had absolutely nothing to do with a series against Columbus or how it might play out.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Exactly, Columbus was more devastated by injury than the Leafs.
Columbus was first or second in man games lost.

Yes, they were pretty devastated by injury as well.

 

[majormajor]

It's like you've taken offence to something without understanding it. I am saying teams are affected by injuries, it's a reality. I was responding to someone saying everyone has injuries - they do, but some years, some teams have worse luck than others. That's a reality of sports, it always has been. It's something that makes sports so interesting. It had absolutely nothing to do with a series against Columbus or how it might play out.

I don't take offense to trivial BS. I just correct it.

You said the Leafs were missing all these players for months: "Losing your 1 and 2 D and 3 top 6 forwards all for months", which is completely false. I'm not debating whether the Leafs had an injury problem, I'm just getting the basic facts correct.

 

[Merrrlin]

I don't take offense to trivial BS. I just correct it.

You said the Leafs were missing all these players for months: "Losing your 1 and 2 D and 3 top 6 forwards all for months", which is completely false. I'm not debating whether the Leafs had an injury problem, I'm just getting the basic facts correct.

Is that why you directed 90% of your posts to CLB injuries? Are you sure you didn't read it the wrong way?

Edit:

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3 good players there. Add to this the injuries to Marner, Tavares and Rielly, it seems kind of like they were missing their top 2 D and 3 top 6 forwards for months at a time. Go ahead and spend some time correcting it. I bet it will add up, just like I said.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Add to this the injuries to Marner, Tavares and Rielly, it seems kind of like they were missing their top 2 D and 3 top 6 forwards for months at a time. Go ahead and spend some time correcting it. I bet it will add up, just like I said.

You forgot about the injuries to Jake Muzzin.

 

[Merrrlin]

You forgot about the injuries to Jake Muzzin.

Ya I meant to originally post a screenshot of the current injury report - edited my post with a link instead.

 

[majormajor]

Is that why you directed 90% of your posts to CLB injuries? Are you sure you didn't read it the wrong way?

Edit:

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Add to this the injuries to Marner, Tavares and Rielly, it seems kind of like they were missing their top 2 D and 3 top 6 forwards for months at a time. Go ahead and spend some time correcting it. I bet it will add up, just like I said.

Yes I'm sure I know what the word "months" means. Two months is about 60 days or about 27-30 games. None of the Leafs D-men or top 4 forwards missed that much time. Marner missed 11 games and Tavares missed 7, that's like nothing! Tavares has more games played than all but six or seven Blue Jackets.

Edit: With a little grace Rielly missed months. None of the others were close.