Obviously regular season to playoffs doesn't necessarily translate... But I look at this and cant help but think the Avs should be pretty dominant 5 on 5 against the Blues again in this series.
In our 3 regular season matchups, we convincingly won the corsi battle in all 3 matchups. 170-108 shot attempts in 3 games, 6.92 expected goals versus 4.19 goals against.
One trend the Avs had going against them this season was that they didn't do a great job at getting into high danger scoring chances frequently, analytically the Avs would win the corsi battle a lot, and in terms of scoring chances they usually dominated in that regard as well, but when it came to the high danger chances we weren't nearly as good. The Avs against the Blues in the regular season out chanced them 81-42.
However, against the Blues we were dominant even in that regard. Across three games we had 33 High Danger chances, versus just 6 chances against. Including one game where the Blue did not get a single high danger chance in the entire game at 5 on 5.
And more impressively then all of that, the Avs didn't play the Blues with a healthy roster one time this season. In our first matchup of the year, we lost the game 4-3 but dominated them 5 on 5, remember that was the game Tyson Jost scored to tie it late but it was called off for a kicking motion. We dominated them despite not having Landeskog, Toews, or Mackinnon in the lineup at that point. We had Sampo Ranta, Stefan Matteau, Jayson Megna, and Dylan Sikura in the lineup for that game.
Two weeks later they played again. Once again the Avs dominated this game. This was the game where St. Louis didn't generate a single High Danger scoring chance at 5 on 5. Avs won this one 4-3. And in this game, the Avs had Gabe and Mack back, but did not have Rantanen, Nichushkin, or Toews still at that point.
And then most recently, just before the season ended we played them again. Dominated them again. Remember this one we were up 4-1 until a couple late goals by the Blues made it somewhat close but really it was another dominant game by the Avs. And again in this game, we were without Landy and Mikko.
Long story short, I think the Blues are just a team the Avs match up exceptionally well against. Yeah the sweep was last year and its a new year and the Blues are supposed to be better. But I think the way they play is just a really great matchup for the Avs. They're not a particularly physical team anymore, they like to play quick transition hockey but they aren't a generally fast skating team. Basically they play a similar style to what we play, only we play it so much better. They haven't even faced us yet with our entire Top 6, we were missing at least 2 guys from every game.
I really think this series is going to end up looking a lot like the Blues series' last year and the first round against the Preds this year. Maybe not a full sweep, but I think it ends up being 5 games. Avs win both at home to start, Blues manage to get a split on home ice in games 3 and 4, before we finish the series at home in game 5.
They're a deep team, but so are we. And our Defense blows theres out of the water at both ends of the ice. On top of that, we have the superstar power they simply dont have.
The one wildcard against us is probably Darcy Kuemper at this point. But I think even just average ~.910 level goaltending from him in the series and we'll get it done in 5 games, 6 tops.
