Speculation: Who do we target on D after OEL Buyout?

[StreetHawk]

Heck, i pretty firmly wanted Dobson, even over Hughes at the time. Still think there's an argument to be made there if he continues on his current development track, but Hughes has continued to excel from the hop in a way that's hard to deny.

With Bouchard also really finding his footing, especially with Ekholm beside him now...it's really Boqvist that stands out as the swing and a miss from that draft. What a group of defencemen though. 5 guys who are already solid Top-3/Top-pairing caliber defencemen just out of the first round. Plus a few other decent guys tracking as players, some with Top-4 upside still.

What a bunk group of forwards though. So many total busts and huge disappointments.


Guys like Boqvist and Brannstrom are definitely a component of why i'm not very keen on ASP in this year's draft. Feels like that same process of overestimating the value of a smooth powerplay producer over the size and two-way even strength ability to tilt the ice that way.

Unfortunately for sub 6 ft Dmen, if you are on the smaller side, you need to be very good at puck movement and putting up points. That's why you don't see many sub 6 ft guys on 3rd units. Either you are good enough to be a top 4 or you won't stick around, even on a bottom pairing. Teams have always preferred bigger bodies at the bottom. Unless, it's a young guy they are trying to develop, but there is a clock on that kid to show he's top 4.

 

[biturbo19]

Unfortunately for sub 6 ft Dmen, if you are on the smaller side, you need to be very good at puck movement and putting up points. That's why you don't see many sub 6 ft guys on 3rd units. Either you are good enough to be a top 4 or you won't stick around, even on a bottom pairing. Teams have always preferred bigger bodies at the bottom. Unless, it's a young guy they are trying to develop, but there is a clock on that kid to show he's top 4.

Yeah. Teams definitely prefer to have bigger, less dramatic sort of safer, steady, "low event" type defencemen on their bottom pairing. Generally more useful to try to get a defensive-minded guy with PK utility. The 3rd pairing PP specialist has kind of gone away. There are usually enough talented defencemen to staff a couple of powerplay units in the Top-4D, particularly with the prevalence of 4F-1D configurations, where you only need two powerplay defencemen. You also have the issue of a 3rd pairing guy not getting the opportunity to play as much and handle the puck as much, so they're not always really revved up and ready to go when it comes to quarterbacking a powerplay.


Not that there are teams and situations where they're pressed to use a guy like Boqvist on the 3rd pairing...but it's not the preferred option. Typically, those types of smaller, riskier offensive D do end up a bit "Top-4 or Bust".

 

[StreetHawk]

Yeah. Teams definitely prefer to have bigger, less dramatic sort of safer, steady, "low event" type defencemen on their bottom pairing. Generally more useful to try to get a defensive-minded guy with PK utility. The 3rd pairing PP specialist has kind of gone away. There are usually enough talented defencemen to staff a couple of powerplay units in the Top-4D, particularly with the prevalence of 4F-1D configurations, where you only need two powerplay defencemen. You also have the issue of a 3rd pairing guy not getting the opportunity to play as much and handle the puck as much, so they're not always really revved up and ready to go when it comes to quarterbacking a powerplay.


Not that there are teams and situations where they're pressed to use a guy like Boqvist on the 3rd pairing...but it's not the preferred option. Typically, those types of smaller, riskier offensive D do end up a bit "Top-4 or Bust".

When CBJ has Werenski, Bean, jiricek when ready, and even Provorov on the second unit, makes Boqvist the most expendable. Also have Ceulmans who is destined for the A this upcoming season on the right side. Long term don’t see Boqvist as a CBJ.

 

[biturbo19]

When CBJ has Werenski, Bean, jiricek when ready, and even Provorov on the second unit, makes Boqvist the most expendable. Also have Ceulmans who is destined for the A this upcoming season on the right side. Long term don’t see Boqvist as a CBJ.

Boqvist might even still be the best "PP QB" of the bunch...but yeah, there are plenty of other guys who are decent to good in that role as well, it makes his utility very marginal. I also don't see him there long-term. Though i could see them playing him as a sheltered 3rd pairing PP specialist for the year to try to pump up his value a bit before they dump him somewhere.

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

Heck, i pretty firmly wanted Dobson, even over Hughes at the time. Still think there's an argument to be made there if he continues on his current development track, but Hughes has continued to excel from the hop in a way that's hard to deny.

With Bouchard also really finding his footing, especially with Ekholm beside him now...it's really Boqvist that stands out as the swing and a miss from that draft. What a group of defencemen though. 5 guys who are already solid Top-3/Top-pairing caliber defencemen just out of the first round. Plus a few other decent guys tracking as players, some with Top-4 upside still.

What a bunk group of forwards though. So many total busts and huge disappointments.


Guys like Boqvist and Brannstrom are definitely a component of why i'm not very keen on ASP in this year's draft. Feels like that same process of overestimating the value of a smooth powerplay producer over the size and two-way even strength ability to tilt the ice that way.

As someone who has watched him a lot because like you I was a big fan. I had him top 8 with Hughes ahead of him and him ahead of Bouchard. But he was very inconsistent this year, he and Hughes are the top different calibre of defenceman. If he was put in Hughes's position at the end of the year Dobson would have absolutely cratered. Dobson has gotten sheltered behind Mayfield, (and Peelch-Pulock one of the best pair in the NHL over a number of years). He is a good defenceman who feasts on the powerplay and does not play the hardest matchup minutes but at 5 on 5 can hold his own. A really good number 3, and would be a number two on most teams. But make no mistake Peelch is the best defenceman on the Islanders.

 

[biturbo19]

As someone who has watched him a lot because like you I was a big fan. I had him top 8 with Hughes ahead of him and him ahead of Bouchard. But he was very inconsistent this year, he and Hughes are the top different calibre of defenceman. If he was put in Hughes's position at the end of the year Dobson would have absolutely cratered. Dobson has gotten sheltered behind Mayfield, (and Peelch-Pulock one of the best pair in the NHL over a number of years). He is a good defenceman who feasts on the powerplay and does not play the hardest matchup minutes but at 5 on 5 can hold his own. A really good number 3, and would be a number two on most teams. But make no mistake Peelch is the best defenceman on the Islanders.

Yeah. Dobson is definitely still developing in his defensive game. Which is kind of surprising, as he seemed to have a pretty mature defensive game at the Junior level. Obviously hasn't quite found that footing at the NHL level yet...but is definitely improving in that respect. It is just inconsistent.

Though i do also wonder how much of that is just the situation and the fact that like you said, he hasn't really been asked to play those top shutdown minutes. They've had two other pairings better suited to that. Seems like they've prioritized having him develop and showcase his offensive game which has really come along more than i expected.

Curious to see, if Mayfield walks...if that doesn't see the Isles shuffle Dobson into some more defensive minutes to backfill, asking him to take on more responsibility in that aspect.

 

[StreetHawk]

Curious to see, if Mayfield walks...if that doesn't see the Isles shuffle Dobson into some more defensive minutes to backfill, asking him to take on more responsibility in that aspect.

Mayfield needs to go and get paid. He's already 30 and he was making $1.5 mill per year over multiple years. So, unless the Isles can afford him, he's likely gone to somewhere he can get $3 mill per season or more.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

Nikko Mikola is left handed Tucker Poolman. Pass. Guillaume Brisebois is 80% the defenseman he is.

 

[biturbo19]

Mayfield needs to go and get paid. He's already 30 and he was making $1.5 mill per year over multiple years. So, unless the Isles can afford him, he's likely gone to somewhere he can get $3 mill per season or more.

Yeah. I think it's pretty much accepted that Mayfield is going to cash out here. Can't blame him either. He's played his entire career on cheap deals, has a highly coveted skillset, and yeah...he'll be 31 by the time the season starts. He's not going to get another opportunity to secure his financial future.


So with that assumption that he's leaving...i could see Dobson being handed a lot more responsibility defensively. They're not going to have two complete shutdown pairings with Pelech/Pulock and Romanov/Mayfield anymore to completely shelter Dobson. I think he's got it in him to take on more of that role, but there may be some bumps in the road. I think that's more likely the way they tackle things, where i don't see them realistically finding an affordable Mayfield replacement directly.

 

[krutovsdonut]

boqvist would be too much of a good thing. dobson is almost certainly not going anywhere.

instead of dreaming /overpaying/forcing a fit for the sake of draft pedigree, we need to chase the middle of the pack guys who could be stead middle pair dmen. what i ideally want on the left side is a reliable 20 minute guy who can handle traffic and pk on a $4m or so deal. i believe we can then platoon wolanin, brisebois and rathbone in the 3rd slot and let whoever is playing best stay up.

and if we can move myers that would be exactly what i want on the right side also. bear and hronek would not be my choice unless bear is cheap enough to play bottom pair.

moves i'd like to see would involve youngish dman that teams would not protect in an expansion draft or can't afford to sign. it's obviously a little tricky to do because seattle recently picked over the whole league using that approach, but it makes more sense to take chances on these guys..

plan b would be to stop gap with an aging cagey former top 4 dmen who is no longer a front line player (think edler on his last two deals).

plan c would be just to get more tweener ahl guys. probably should be plan b given how well we have done at it.

 

[biturbo19]

boqvist would be too much of a good thing. dobson is almost certainly not going anywhere.

instead of dreaming /overpaying/forcing a fit for the sake of draft pedigree, we need to chase the middle of the pack guys who could be stead middle pair dmen. what i ideally want on the left side is a reliable 20 minute guy who can handle traffic and pk on a $4m or so deal. i believe we can then platoon wolanin, brisebois and rathbone in the 3rd slot and let whoever is playing best stay up.

and if we can move myers that would be exactly what i want on the right side also. bear and hronek would not be my choice unless bear is cheap enough to play bottom pair.

moves i'd like to see would involve youngish dman that teams would not protect in an expansion draft or can't afford to sign. it's obviously a little tricky to do because seattle recently picked over the whole league using that approach, but it makes more sense to take chances on these guys..

plan b would be to stop gap with an aging cagey former top 4 dmen who is no longer a front line player (think edler on his last two deals).

plan c would be just to get more tweener ahl guys. probably should be plan b given how well we have done at it.

Do you have any specific examples of youngish and available defencemen that might fit this category?

I feel like Hronek acquisition was in that vain, but also illustrates how expensive that tends to be.



Every once in a while a team feels some cap pressure to make a move and kicks loose a Toews or Marino for a reasonable price. But it doesn't happen a ton. Having a hard time seeing anyone like that likely to hit the market this summer.

 

[arttk]

boqvist would be too much of a good thing. dobson is almost certainly not going anywhere.

instead of dreaming /overpaying/forcing a fit for the sake of draft pedigree, we need to chase the middle of the pack guys who could be stead middle pair dmen. what i ideally want on the left side is a reliable 20 minute guy who can handle traffic and pk on a $4m or so deal. i believe we can then platoon wolanin, brisebois and rathbone in the 3rd slot and let whoever is playing best stay up.

and if we can move myers that would be exactly what i want on the right side also. bear and hronek would not be my choice unless bear is cheap enough to play bottom pair.

moves i'd like to see would involve youngish dman that teams would not protect in an expansion draft or can't afford to sign. it's obviously a little tricky to do because seattle recently picked over the whole league using that approach, but it makes more sense to take chances on these guys..

plan b would be to stop gap with an aging cagey former top 4 dmen who is no longer a front line player (think edler on his last two deals).

plan c would be just to get more tweener ahl guys. probably should be plan b given how well we have done at it.

chasing underrated underappreciated and therefore potentially underpaid D is the way to go

 

[krutovsdonut]

Do you have any specific examples of youngish and available defencemen that might fit this category?

I feel like Hronek acquisition was in that vain, but also illustrates how expensive that tends to be.



Every once in a while a team feels some cap pressure to make a move and kicks loose a Toews or Marino for a reasonable price. But it doesn't happen a ton. Having a hard time seeing anyone like that likely to hit the market this summer.

agreed it does not happen a ton and often you don't know they are on the market until they move.

maybe mike reilly?

 

[biturbo19]

agreed it does not happen a ton and often you don't know they are on the market until they move.

maybe mike reilly?

The $3M depth defenceman who just spent most of the year buried in the minors?

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Suggestions in the media now are that Myers could play out the entire duration of his contract as a Canuck ..due to the Bear injury.

 

[krutovsdonut]

The $3M depth defenceman who just spent most of the year buried in the minors?

yeah, that guy. weird career. he has played between 18 and 20 minutes a night for each of the habs, sens and bruins but both the habs and bruins upgraded their defence making him into a depth piece, and the sens traded him to the bruins for a 3rd rounder when he was playing 20 minutes a nite and was nearly .5ppg. maybe sort of a ben hutton guy who can play top 4 minutes as a #6 dman.

seems like a guy who might hold his own for a year and the bruins would surely pay something to move him.

 

[biturbo19]

Suggestions in the media now are that Myers could play out the entire duration of his contract as a Canuck ..due to the Bear injury.

It's annoying, but i wouldn't be surprised at all. Between the timing of his bonus payout, his trade protection, and the fact that Bear is going to miss a significant amount of time at RHD...i could entirely see Myers lingering around through to the end of the season.

It's just so hard to actually use the cap space he'd open up at the beginning of Training Camp when teams and free agents have most found their chairs as the music stops. Especially when he can effectively block trades to any of the teams that would actually be interested in a $1M cash player with a massive $6M cap hit.

yeah, that guy. weird career. he has played between 18 and 20 minutes a night for each of the habs, sens and bruins but both the habs and bruins upgraded their defence making him into a depth piece, and the sens traded him to the bruins for a 3rd rounder when he was playing 20 minutes a nite and was nearly .5ppg. maybe sort of a ben hutton guy who can play top 4 minutes as a #6 dman.

seems like a guy who might hold his own for a year and the bruins would surely pay something to move him.

Does it not tell you something that even when he's playing 20 minutes a night for a team and putting up decent points...everyone always seems to want to replace him or upgrade significantly on him and basically just get rid of him?

He's a good skater, but he's a complete rollercoaster defensively and in pretty much every other respect. Like...when a guy has been cast aside by that many different teams...i think it's a pattern.

Ben Hutton is probably a good parallel. Someone who can potentially give you 20 minutes a night...but they're not going to be very good, and you're going to have a bad time as a team if that's part of your roster composition. Going to require a really strong defensively responsible partner to get any stability whatsoever out of him as well.

We've already got that guy in Tyler Myers basically. He can easily give you 20 erratic minutes a night. But he actually has moments where he can be a physical presence and do something positive by accident.




Now...if Treliving with the Leafs went fully insane in his quest to reshape their defence as he's said he'd like to, and decides to make Morgan Rielly available...that's something i'd get more interested in. Though we probably just don't have the assets to make that happen and i really doubt he's moved.

If they kick TJ Brodie to the curb, that's another guy i'd be very interested in. But again, probably just idle speculation churned out of the Toronto click machine.

 

[strattonius]

Suggestions in the media now are that Myers could play out the entire duration of his contract as a Canuck ..due to the Bear injury.

Or more likely because no one wants to trade for his clumsy ass.

 

[me2]

Or more likely because no one wants to trade for his clumsy ass.

They aren't keeping him because they want to. That's for sure. If he's here it's because that's just how it ended up.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

Myers on the 3rd pairing doesn’t bother me too much.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Ben Hutton is probably a good parallel. Someone who can potentially give you 20 minutes a night...but they're not going to be very good, and you're going to have a bad time as a team if that's part of your roster composition. Going to require a really strong defensively responsible partner to get any stability whatsoever out of him as well.

If they kick TJ Brodie to the curb, that's another guy i'd be very interested in. But again, probably just idle speculation churned out of the Toronto click machine.

i think hutton's ability to play those kind of minutes is underrated even if his play does not meet a top 4 standard. it gives you an option if a top minute dman gets injured, or as a bad team trying to get through the season. he seems wasted as a depth piece when he could be playing 20 minutes a night on a tanking team.

i have not watched reilly enough to have an opinion on why his career has been a roller coaster. i can see how petry, chariot and kulak edged him out the door in montreal with that contract, and i can imagine ottawa moved him on for whatever they could get because they were tanking. his boston experience could simply be the team not messing with what was working in that magical season last year, and they couldn't move him because his contract was too scary. he logged big minutes on good boston defensive teams the years before and a couple of playoff rounds, so maybe he's a victim of circumstances. i'd have a hard look at him if i ran a team but it is more than likely he is a guy who can play the minutes adequately but not at a top 4 standard.

 

[biturbo19]

i think hutton's ability to play those kind of minutes is underrated even if his play does not meet a top 4 standard. it gives you an option if a top minute dman gets injured, or as a bad team trying to get through the season. he seems wasted as a depth piece when he could be playing 20 minutes a night on a tanking team.

i have not watched reilly enough to have an opinion on why his career has been a roller coaster. i can see how petry, chariot and kulak edged him out the door in montreal with that contract, and i can imagine ottawa moved him on for whatever they could get because they were tanking. his boston experience could simply be the team not messing with what was working in that magical season last year, and they couldn't move him because his contract was too scary. he logged big minutes on good boston defensive teams the years before and a couple of playoff rounds, so maybe he's a victim of circumstances. i'd have a hard look at him if i ran a team but it is more than likely he is a guy who can play the minutes adequately but not at a top 4 standard.

I mean...that's the whole thing with guys like Hutton and Mike Reilly. If they're playing those minutes...but not up to an actual Top-4D level what's the actual point? Teams just don't like to waste time with guys who are tweeners like that. Why would they? There's no upside.

If they can skate at a level that lets them fill a bunch of minutes badly...but don't offer anything else that'd make them useful as a 3rd pairing guy...what's the point? Might as well just use those minutes to see if someone else can play bigger minutes with an opportunity.

They're useful if you can get them on a minimum sort of deal like Hutton with Vegas. Stash them as your "spare" and hopefully never play them. If you have to fill a Top-4 role for a stint due to injury, plug them in and hope they can keep their head above water for a few minutes. But if you pencil any of that sort of player into your opening night Top-4D you've already lost the season.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Or more likely because no one wants to trade for his clumsy ass.

He'd be fine as a 3rd pairing D man..Not only that ..Having Hughes ,Hronek and other D like Hirose, or a possible Stecher....Somebody has got to be able to deliver a hit, or move guys in front of the net.

Seems right now on D , we have too many piano players, and not enough piano movers.

 

[MarkMM]

chasing underrated underappreciated and therefore potentially underpaid D is the way to go

The retool on the fly is possible if you have shrewd scouts who can pick undervalued players, so if this is the root management / ownership is going then they have to prove they can find that kind of talent in the bargain bin otherwise playing the odds and doing a proper rebuild would be the smarter option.

Suggestions in the media now are that Myers could play out the entire duration of his contract as a Canuck ..due to the Bear injury.

One thing I could see (hope?) is something like they qualify / re-sign Bear and put him on LTIR, sign Schenn in free-agency as a temporary replacement and when Bear returns then bump Schenn down to Myers's spot and auction off Myers for whatever we can, even just waiving him for free.

Hopefully some team looking for a free asset at minimal cost will take him, maybe to make up for an injury of their own, and the Canucks could weaponize that free cap space at the TDL.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Go after Peeke; pair him with Hughes.

Go after Sanheim; pair him with Hronek.

Wolanin starts with Myers on the 3rd pair.

Hirose, Burroughs, Woo, Juulsen all mix in periodically.