Who are the most overrated/underrated teams going into 19-20?

Kamiccolo

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In fairness no one picked the Leafs last year it was all Winnipeg and Tampa.

Right, if anything, Winnipeg was massively over rated last year. Not to mention, Tampa, Leafs, Winnipeg, Calgary all out in the first round, but you only hear about it really with one team, when many had those guys over the Leafs last year (and other teams too).
 

kings11

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Kings/Blackhawks: Underrated.. I expect a 10-15pt increase for each team, remember I said this!
Sharks/TML: Overrated.. Goaltending will get the shorks, pressure will sink the TML
 

edog37

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There is no team more overwhelmingly underrated than Columbus.

Although Toronto is also getting high on that list simply due to the number of folks who can't tell the difference between a desire to see them fail versus reasonable expectations of them failing. And folks are ignoring the Islanders' existence again.

Columbus is rightfully being assessed given the talent they lost. If they overachieve this year, than they'll be underrated, but until they play a game, they are being assessed correctly...
 

edog37

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Overrated: Toronto/Pittsburgh/St.Louis
Underrated: Florida/Chicago

Toronto, without question.

Pittsburgh: Not when you have won 2 Cups in the last 4 four years

St Louis: They are the defending champs, it is impossible for them to be overrated..
 

treple13

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Overrated: Dallas, Vegas, Florida

Underrated: Arizona, Columbus, Philadelphia
 

Crazy Cizikas

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This is by far my biggest pet peeve with Jackets skepticism. Five teams out of the eight in the Metro Division have major questions in net this year. Here are those teams, what their situation is, and how folks by and large seem to be reacting to same:
  • NYI - lost their quality starter, going with a reclamation project - they're a defensive-oriented team under Trotz, so, meh
  • Carolina - lost one of their top duo, still lack a quality starter - oh, they'll be fine, maybe it'll go wrong, but, whatever
  • New Jersey - haven't had a quality starter, likely going with a young 'maybe' - doesn't matter, they're on their way up, they'll be fine
  • Philadelphia - haven't had a quality starter, going with a young 'maybe' - doesn't matter, they're on their way up, they'll be fine
  • Columbus - lost their quality starter, going with a young 'maybe' - utterly doomed, no hope, worst goaltending in the league, team irrelevant again, five to ten years in the basement, doom doom death and destruction and fail forever :scared:
I detect a slight inconsistency somewhere in there. Very slight. :)
Heck, one could even make a case for the Rangers being uncertain, since King Henrik seems to be doing the slow fade thing and so they're looking more and more at Georgiev and Shesterkin. But I'm not prepared to go there yet. I still pay all due respect to His Majesty.

I can understand people being skeptical about the Jackets (most of us fans are, even! ;) ), but to hear many of these folks tell it you'd think we were just sent back to the Doug MacLean era.
Lehner has never been a quality starter prior to his season with the Islanders. Greiss has always been a mediocre backup. All that changed last year with Trotz and Korn. I think adding Varlamov, who has previously been a quality starter, is actually an improvement. Varlamov will now get the benefits of the better coaching that raised an average starter to Vezina consideration.
 

Viqsi

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Lets look at the goaltending changes for those 5 teams a bit closer

Islanders are going with a reclamation project- just like they did last year. lehner was one too. In 2615 mins last year Lehner had a 2.13 GAA and .930 sav%. Griess in 2294 minutes had a 2.28 GAA and .927 save %. Given how bad both lehner and griess were the year before that suggests to me that their success last year was in large part system related. Plus Griess is still there.

Carolina still has the number one guy from last year. Loss of a backup is not the same as losing your number 1

Jersey's goaltending was bad last year not like they are losing anything

Philly Hart may or may not be the answer but he is probably the guy with the most potential in Philly since Bobrovsky

Columbus Last year Bob 3557 mins 2.58 GAA .913 sav % 9 shut outs. Korpisalo 1360 mins 2.95 GAA and .897 save % no shut outs.

The drop of between Bob and his backup who is the starter this year is way bigger than the dropoff between Lehner and his backup (who played almost as much as lehner)

Columbus were the 8th seed in the east last year with Bob and they are replacing him with a guy with a sub .900 save %. They weren't good enough with him to get a spot in metro instead getting the crossover WC spot. Do any of those teams from the Atlantic they beat out for that spot have same goaltending woes. Habs still have Price - he's okay, Fla got some new guy who I hear is pretty good.

Now add in fact that they lost their top offensive player and it is easy to see why most are picking jackets to miss. maybe they will make it but there are valid reasons to think they will fall off this year.
My specific complaint there isn't about the Jackets being picked to miss - in this case, it's how folks harp on our goaltending as being among the worst in the league, whereas those other teams in similar situations in our own division all get the benefit of the doubt. There's no question we've downgraded (well, unless Korpi has some hidden badassery he just hasn't shown yet, or Elvis turns out to have mystical superpowers); I get annoyed because folks have assumed that anything short of Bob is Eternal Damnation In Net for the Jackets.

* * *​
Lehner has never been a quality starter prior to his season with the Islanders. Greiss has always been a mediocre backup. All that changed last year with Trotz and Korn. I think adding Varlamov, who has previously been a quality starter, is actually an improvement. Varlamov will now get the benefits of the better coaching that raised an average starter to Vezina consideration.
That's certainly possible, and it would not surprise me if any or all of those teams turn out to be just fine in net, or even better. I'm not saying "all those teams secretly suck", I'm saying most of our division is getting the benefit of the doubt and we're not, and there's no reason that's been presented for it beyond "well, Bob was really really good, and Korpi didn't look as good last year, therefore DOOM".
 

wintersej

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Lehner has never been a quality starter prior to his season with the Islanders. Greiss has always been a mediocre backup. All that changed last year with Trotz and Korn. I think adding Varlamov, who has previously been a quality starter, is actually an improvement. Varlamov will now get the benefits of the better coaching that raised an average starter to Vezina consideration.

I am curious to see how the Islanders do.

Shot quality is real and coaching and systems can certainly drive it, especially on the defensive end of things. But how much of the teams save % was driven by the system vs Lehner having a career year. It's not 100% in either direction.

It's not like Trotz has the history of inflating all his goalies save % to that degree. Holtby saw his go up from being a guy that hovered around .920 to one that hovered around .923 when Trotz joined the team. And Holtby's .907 season was with Trotz as coach. Rinne's save % didn't really change when Trotz left either.

And it's not like Greiss hasn't had a good season before. He has a .925 save % in over 40 games just a few years ago. I'm not sure that the fact that he hit .927 last year really proves anything except that over the course of the entire season 10 more pucks hit him. Luck or system or both?

People who say "TROTZ IS MAGIC WE WON'T MISS A BEAT" and people who say "THEY ARE GONNA REGRESS AND BE BAD, ITS ALL GOALIE VOODOO MAGIC" are both wrong. I'm not sure who is MORE wrong.
 
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thestonedkoala

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There is no team more overwhelmingly underrated than Columbus.

Minnesota says hi. Most people either come up with one of three arguments when talking about Minnesota and their playoff hopes; they are old (we just traded a few of them and defense doesn't matter), they can't score (except they can), other teams are better aka we don't know Minnesota and it's a popular pick, so we're going to say they are worse off.

Koivu is healthy (and appears to be healthier than in past seasons), Dumba is healthy. Suter is healthy. Parise is healthy. Added Zucc. Staal doesn't have to worry about a contract. GM has been sorted out.

The fact that most people don't even talk about Minnesota or dismisses them like har-har-har, duhhhh I think they need to rebuild, cause uh I don't know any players or stats on their team and they had one bad season in 5+ years, means I know everything about them and so therefore they are bad, because I declared it, just shows how bandwagon or ignorant most fans are.
 
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abo9

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This is by far my biggest pet peeve with Jackets skepticism. Five teams out of the eight in the Metro Division have major questions in net this year. Here are those teams, what their situation is, and how folks by and large seem to be reacting to same:
  • NYI - lost their quality starter, going with a reclamation project - they're a defensive-oriented team under Trotz, so, meh
  • Carolina - lost one of their top duo, still lack a quality starter - oh, they'll be fine, maybe it'll go wrong, but, whatever
  • New Jersey - haven't had a quality starter, likely going with a young 'maybe' - doesn't matter, they're on their way up, they'll be fine
  • Philadelphia - haven't had a quality starter, going with a young 'maybe' - doesn't matter, they're on their way up, they'll be fine
  • Columbus - lost their quality starter, going with a young 'maybe' - utterly doomed, no hope, worst goaltending in the league, team irrelevant again, five to ten years in the basement, doom doom death and destruction and fail forever :scared:
I detect a slight inconsistency somewhere in there. Very slight. :)
Heck, one could even make a case for the Rangers being uncertain, since King Henrik seems to be doing the slow fade thing and so they're looking more and more at Georgiev and Shesterkin. But I'm not prepared to go there yet. I still pay all due respect to His Majesty.

I can understand people being skeptical about the Jackets (most of us fans are, even! ;) ), but to hear many of these folks tell it you'd think we were just sent back to the Doug MacLean era.

how can you argue that Columbus's situation looks better or similar than those teams?

  • Islanders replaced Lehner by Varlamov. No significant upgrade or downgrade up front (I believe?). I think everyone agrees they should experience a regression and come back to Earth.
  • Carolina: Added Dzingel, Haula, Gardiner, lost Slavin, Ferland, Williams. I'd argue they upgraded by covering a position they were weaker with Gardiner
  • New Jersey: Added Subban, Hughes, Gusev, Simmonds. Major upgrades
  • Philly: Subtract Kevin Hayes.
  • Columbus: Gains Gustav Nyquist. Loses Panarin, Bob (let's even forget Dzinguel and Duchene).
Anyone looking at these movements sees that Columbus had the worst offseason by a mile. I'm not gonna condemn anyone who thinks they will fall behind all those teams.

Still, I do think they could surprise since they have a good group of players who will want to show the hockey world what they can do. That's IF their goalies post decent stats, which is dubious considering what Korpisalo has shown to date.
 
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Help

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People are somehow still underrating Carolina

Habs and Minnesota will exceed expectations due to improved powerplay and shooting/goaltending luck respectively
 

Crazy Cizikas

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I am curious to see how the Islanders do.

Shot quality is real and coaching and systems can certainly drive it, especially on the defensive end of things. But how much of the teams save % was driven by the system vs Lehner having a career year. It's not 100% in either direction.

It's not like Trotz has the history of inflating all his goalies save % to that degree. Holtby saw his go up from being a guy that hovered around .920 to one that hovered around .923 when Trotz joined the team. And Holtby's .907 season was with Trotz as coach. Rinne's save % didn't really change when Trotz left either.

And it's not like Greiss hasn't had a good season before. He has a .925 save % in over 40 games just a few years ago. I'm not sure that the fact that he hit .927 last year really proves anything except that over the course of the entire season 10 more pucks hit him. Luck or system or both?

People who say "TROTZ IS MAGIC WE WON'T MISS A BEAT" and people who say "THEY ARE GONNA REGRESS AND BE BAD, ITS ALL GOALIE VOODOO MAGIC" are both wrong. I'm not sure who is MORE wrong.

They were the 5th best team in the league last year. I’ve seen rankings placing them as low as 23rd for the upcoming season. Will replacing Lehner with Varlamov result in a drop of 18 ranks? Even assuming that Lehner is better than Varlamov (which is debatable), how much difference could a few goals against matter? I guess we’ll have to see how they do this season, but as an Islanders fan, I am not all worried about the goalie switch.
 

Holymakinaw

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May 22, 2007
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I think New Jersey is underrated this season. I think they'll be a very good team this year and can get 10-12 more wins and make the playoffs.

For overrated.......Vegas. Never understood how they did so well with that lineup.
 

Bertuzzzi44

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Overrated: Toronto/Calgary/Tampa/Pittsburgh

Underrated: Florida/Vancouver/Chicago/NYI/Philadelphia
 
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The Winter Soldier

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Lehner has never been a quality starter prior to his season with the Islanders. Greiss has always been a mediocre backup. All that changed last year with Trotz and Korn. I think adding Varlamov, who has previously been a quality starter, is actually an improvement. Varlamov will now get the benefits of the better coaching that raised an average starter to Vezina consideration.
I am with you. I give credit for Lehner for his season last year, even more so as a person. He was a great story last year. But as I remind people here, he and Greiss virtually had the same stats as a starter. Both guys were not seen as no.1 caliber goalies up until they met Korn and Trotz last year. Varlymov is a #1. Goalie. I can't wait to see him play under Trotz and Korn. I expect the Isles goaltending to actually be better this year. Something Lou teams have always had.
 
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Viqsi

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Minnesota says hi. Most people either come up with one of three arguments when talking about Minnesota and their playoff hopes; they are old (we just traded a few of them and defense doesn't matter), they can't score (except they can), other teams are better aka we don't know Minnesota and it's a popular pick, so we're going to say they are worse off.

Koivu is healthy (and appears to be healthier than in past seasons), Dumba is healthy. Suter is healthy. Parise is healthy. Added Zucc. Staal doesn't have to worry about a contract. GM has been sorted out.

The fact that most people don't even talk about Minnesota or dismisses them like har-har-har, duhhhh I think they need to rebuild, cause uh I don't know any players or stats on their team and they had one bad season in 5+ years, means I know everything about them and so therefore they are bad, because I declared it, just shows how bandwagon or ignorant most fans are.
Fair point. I do believe Minnesota gets a bit too easily dismissed simply because of the Fenton madness, which may well have people thinking "what other hidden damage has he done?" - assuming they're giving it that much thought at all. (And speaking personally, I'm still bitter enough about $uter and Rielly that I wouldn't mind seeing them crash and burn ;) but ideally that shouldn't make it to any assessment of the team's chances.)

* * *​
how can you argue that Columbus's situation looks better or similar than those teams?
I'm not. I was strictly talking about goaltending in that particular post - not anything else. While an argument could be made that Columbus would be ahead of some of them despite having a clearly worse offseason, there's too many vague points and question marks all around to do so coherently, so I'm not going there.

I don't think we're clearly better or anything like that. I just think we're still in the mix. We need several things to go well for us to emerge from that pack, but that's true of everybody in it - it's just that the majority of folks have picked favorites and given them the benefit of the doubt, and are dismissing any chances we might have. That's my complaint.
 
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Hockey4Lyfe

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Funny how people say the Penguins are over rated when I have heard/read all offseason how they won’t make the playoffs and that they lost Kessel so they won’t be good.

How exactly is that overrated?
 
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BWJM

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Going into this season I'd say.

West

Over: San Jose, Jets
Under: Vancouver, Arizona

East

Over: Columbus, Penguins
Under: Florida, Buffalo
 

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