Which Trade was Burke's best *** Reset April 28, 2014 ***

ForSpareParts*

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Look at how many picks they had in those drafts.

They had 10 picks the year they got Crawford and Byfgulien, 17 picks the year they got Bolland, Bickell, and Brouwer, 11 picks the year they got Saad and Shaw, 12 picks the year they got Hjlamarsson, etc. They didn't draft Sharp either, he was a young guy they traded for.

We by comparison had 5 draft picks last year, 6 the year before, 9 the year before, 7 the year before that, etc. Plus we've ALREADY traded 2nd round picks from the next two drafts.

It's partially luck, but you can also improve your odds or decrease your odds in the draft by acquiring/trading away picks.

You can't just blame it on luck /lack of scouting. Systematically acquiring extra late round picks improves your odds of hitting homeruns. We do not do that, we regularly trade away picks.

Even still the odds are great. Who's to say that if we picked 27 times in the next few years that the draft will be filled with plenty of difference makers in every round. So many players get drafted and don't amount to anything.

You have to give in to fact that there's an incredible amount of luck with drafting. After the first round...heck even after the first 15 picks how often to you land an amazing player?
 

cujoflutie

Registered User
Even still the odds are great. Who's to say that if we picked 27 times in the next few years that the draft will be filled with plenty of difference makers in every round. So many players get drafted and don't amount to anything.

You have to give in to fact that there's an incredible amount of luck with drafting. After the first round...heck even after the first 15 picks how often to you land an amazing player?

"100% of the shots you don't take, don't go in"

there's an incredible amount of luck to winning a lottery but the folks with more tickets have more chances than the ones who don't.
 

egd27

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In terms of team building evaluation of trades and signings.

How come Leafs are compared to good teams during the season when competition for playoff spots is the goal, and then compared to failed non playoff teams at end of season instead?.

When season starts we want to be like Pittsburgh and Chicago and LA competing for a Cup, and when it ends they're no longer relevant to the discussion now, as focus turns to Edmonton, NYI and Florida who become the new comparable to measure success postmortem of another failed season.

Who keeps moving the goals posts of evaluation?

No one is moving the goal posts.

The "all draft all the time" crowd points to Pitt and Chi like success is inevitable by simply drafting and waiting.

Some of us are just pointing out the other side of that model.
 

The Apologist

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No one is moving the goal posts.

The "all draft all the time" crowd points to Pitt and Chi like success is inevitable by simply drafting and waiting.

Some of us are just pointing out the other side of that model.
And they know this, but bringing up the negative side hurts thei argument so it's not allowed
 

Bomber0104

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No one is moving the goal posts.

The "all draft all the time" crowd points to Pitt and Chi like success is inevitable by simply drafting and waiting.

Some of us are just pointing out the other side of that model.

Name one playoff team that whose core hasn't been draft built. Really, try it.

See guys like you think you are genuinely making an "argument" but all you do is tell people with the capacity to think what won't work, rather than what will work. I've read it on here for years. And how much success have we had with YOUR "argument", exactly? Zero. Nada. Zilch. Absolutely zero success. But no, let's keep doing more of the same. That'll work. And here's proof it will work..."Florida Panthers, Edmonton Oilers, New York Islanders". Thought provoking analysis. Like really, I can't believe you went through such trouble to develop that groundbreaking analysis.

But let's face it, you don't have an argument at all. You are just a proponent of the status quo. You haven't the capacity to criticize anything Leafs management does because they are Leafs management, end of story. Who cares how winning hockey teams are built...they aren't the Leafs so who cares!
 

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
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Name one playoff team that whose core hasn't been draft built. Really, try it.

See guys like you think you are genuinely making an "argument" but all you do is tell people with the capacity to think what won't work, rather than what will work. I've read it on here for years. And how much success have we had with YOUR "argument", exactly? Zero. Nada. Zilch. Absolutely zero success. But no, let's keep doing more of the same. That'll work. And here's proof it will work..."Florida Panthers, Edmonton Oilers, New York Islanders". Thought provoking analysis. Like really, I can't believe you went through such trouble to develop that groundbreaking analysis.

But let's face it, you don't have an argument at all. You are just a proponent of the status quo. You haven't the capacity to criticize anything Leafs management does because they are Leafs management, end of story. Who cares how winning hockey teams are built...they aren't the Leafs so who cares!
It's cute when the draftophiles get all upset because people see value in using all areas to build a team.
 

Bomber0104

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It's cute when the draftophiles get all upset because people see value in using all areas to build a team.

Free agency and trading is great for patchwork, not for core pieces. And that is exactly what the Leafs are. A makeshift team of discards, scrap pieces, and patchwork.

You and people like you, who have supported Burke, Nonis, etc., are now seeing the repercussions in action. I hope you're happy because you are ruining it for fans like me who actually want the Leafs to succeed one day.

With the exception of maybe the New York Rangers, every single playoff team in contention for the Cup right now was built through the draft.

I'm sorry but that is just the fact of the matter. I know you feel the Leafs can somehow skirt this inconvenient detail but that's just how it is.

I really am getting tired of repeating myself and I really am tired of debunking the same old tired arguments year in and year out from people like you. I really do wonder if "retoolers" ever get tired of being wrong year after year?

Why don't you learn any lessons?
 

Mess

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No one is moving the goal posts.

The "all draft all the time" crowd points to Pitt and Chi like success is inevitable by simply drafting and waiting.

Some of us are just pointing out the other side of that model.

You're right Leafs should not be compared to good teams and Cup winners like Pitts, Chicago or LA, because they certainly are not following their team building blue print. They shouldn't be compared at the beginning of the season nor at the end.

Forget about the playoffs as that is where good teams end up, through strong drafting and developing and how they're building their cores around Crosby, Malkin, Toews, Keith, Doughty and Kopitar as a result and being rewarded.

We're not doing that, having the least number of drafted and developed players and are just barely above teams playing at the cap floor that are in full draft rebuild mode. We're just envious of the good teams and cup contenders is all, and wish we had what they have.
 

cujoflutie

Registered User
List of teams to win the cup since the lockout


Carolina
Anaheim
Detroit
Pittsburgh
Chicago
Boston
Los Angeles

Tell me which of them didn't get their key players through the draft. Maybe boston but even they had more core players drafted or acquired for players they drafted than the leafs do.
 

Bomber0104

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Apr 8, 2007
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List of teams to win the cup since the lockout


Carolina
Anaheim
Detroit
Pittsburgh
Chicago
Boston
Los Angeles

Tell me which of them didn't get their key players through the draft. Maybe boston but even they had more core players drafted or acquired for players they drafted than the leafs do.

Not 100% but I don't recall those teams winning their Cups on the backs of a soft-as-butter one-dimensional winger and a neanderthal defenceman.

But fear not, EazyB97 "sees the value" in building around those two. He just can't explain why...
 

HamiltonNHL

Parity era hockey is just puck luck + draft luck
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Cool thread. Thanks for reviving.
I'd love to know the people who loved the Phaneuf deal :)

Well 2 known things about trades..

1). They are evaluated on hindsight 20/20 down the road when the results are in.
2). Transactions are made with the intent of making the team better (outside of salary dumps).

So with that in mind big picture analysis of Burke's transactions.

Team results:
Starting Point: 2007-08 - 83 points 7th from the bottom.
Ending Point : 2013-14 - 84 points 8th from the bottom.

Analyzing the 6 years of team building cause and effect of all the Burke transactions both good trades & UFA signings and bad trades & UFA signings it looks like improvement = negligible.

So good transactions - bad transactions = same end result.
Moving sideways is one thing ... but the real loss is the opportunity cost of not developing younger players during those 6 years. Who knows what could have come out of that.

Free agency and trading is great for patchwork, not for core pieces. And that is exactly what the Leafs are. A makeshift team of discards, scrap pieces, and patchwork.

You and people like you, who have supported Burke, Nonis, etc., are now seeing the repercussions in action. I hope you're happy because you are ruining it for fans like me who actually want the Leafs to succeed one day.

With the exception of maybe the New York Rangers, every single playoff team in contention for the Cup right now was built through the draft.

I'm sorry but that is just the fact of the matter. I know you feel the Leafs can somehow skirt this inconvenient detail but that's just how it is.

I really am getting tired of repeating myself and I really am tired of debunking the same old tired arguments year in and year out from people like you. I really do wonder if "retoolers" ever get tired of being wrong year after year?

THIS !

If Shanny doesn't blow this team up this year, he better next year.
 

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
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Free agency and trading is great for patchwork, not for core pieces. And that is exactly what the Leafs are. A makeshift team of discards, scrap pieces, and patchwork.
You don't consider Chara, M. Richards, Thomas, Carter, Hossa, Sharp key pieces?

You and people like you, who have supported Burke, Nonis, etc., are now seeing the repercussions in action. I hope you're happy because you are ruining it for fans like me who actually want the Leafs to succeed one day.
Here's the beautful thing about "people like me", we judge each move. I can look and say that Komisarek signing was bad, that Clarkson signing was stupid, moving Steen made no sense etc... and also things like that was a bad pick or trading JVR for Schenn was a good move.

Some smaller minded people who aren't able to see beyond the draft are limited in what they are able to support

With the exception of maybe the New York Rangers, every single playoff team in contention for the Cup right now was built through the draft.
The Bruins top 3 d-men when healthy aren't drafted players. SJ's #1 goalie, #1 D-man and 2 top 6 forwards (Thornton and Burns) aren't drafted players. I already mentioned Hossa and Sharp.

Each one of these teams has good drafted players as well, but who has said the Leafs shouldn't draft well? Have you seen a fan say the fact they wish we traded the Rielly pick?

I'm sorry but that is just the fact of the matter. I know you feel the Leafs can somehow skirt this inconvenient detail but that's just how it is.
My "facts" say Chara is a key piece on the Bruins, your "fact" say he isn't. My "facts" say Joe Thornton is a big piece of the Sharks, yours say he isn't.

Do you really want to talk "facts"?

I really am getting tired of repeating myself and I really am tired of debunking the same old tired arguments year in and year out from people like you. I really do wonder if "retoolers" ever get tired of being wrong year after year?

Why don't you learn any lessons?
How ironic, you're preaching about "not learning lessons" when you don't even know what you're teaching. Maybe you should hop off that high horse before you hurt yourself.

Bomber0104 said:
But fear not, EazyB97 "sees the value" in building around those two. He just can't explain why...
Care to show me where I said those are the 2 we should build around?
 
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Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
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List of teams to win the cup since the lockout


Carolina --> Brind'Amour, Williams, Stillman, Their top 4 d-men
Anaheim --> Selanne, Pronger, Niedermayer, Beauchemin, Pahlsson
Detroit --> Rafalski. B. Stuart
Pittsburgh --> Gonchar, Guerin, Kunitz
Chicago --> Sharp, Hossa, Niemi
Boston --> Thomas, Chara
Los Angeles --> M. Richards, Carter, J. Williams, Mitchell, Scuderi

Tell me which of them didn't get their key players through the draft. Maybe boston but even they had more core players drafted or acquired for players they drafted than the leafs do.
That's a list of key players for the above cup winners who weren't drafted (and retained) by that team. Some fluctuation, but Carolina, Anaheim and arguably the Kings had some pretty significant acquisitions that made them contenders.
 

Mess

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The results of the team in a full season are among the bottom teams year after year, so what exactly are the Leafs doing right that people support this rebuild process?.

When will we know its not working?
 

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
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The results of the team in a full season are among the bottom teams year after year, so what exactly are the Leafs doing right that people support this rebuild process?.

When will we know its not working?
Every year we know the team isn't good enough.

As for the method, every year a team wins the cup and they're rarely built the same way. Is it the method or is it the execution? Tough to say the execution has been great with moves like the Clarkson signing. In the same breath, it's tough to say the Leafs aren't drafting when they have Kadri and Rielly on the roster with another top 10 pick coming up.
 

Faltorvo

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Feb 18, 2008
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Cool thread. Thanks for reviving.
I'd love to know the people who loved the Phaneuf deal :)


Moving sideways is one thing ... but the real loss is the opportunity cost of not developing younger players during those 6 years. Who knows what could have come out of that.



THIS !

If Shanny doesn't blow this team up this year, he better next year.

I'm a proponent of doing it now for a few reasons.

1) Next years drafts is about as good as they come , a couple of real top enders and good quality depth.

2) Age sink with the pieces we would likely keep berny,Riels and some others.

3) if my suspicions are accurate and we do indeed have some bad apples in the room, the sooner the better, no one wants that spreading.
 

Mess

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Every year we know the team isn't good enough.

As for the method, every year a team wins the cup and they're rarely built the same way. Is it the method or is it the execution? Tough to say the execution has been great with moves like the Clarkson signing. In the same breath, it's tough to say the Leafs aren't drafting when they have Kadri and Rielly on the roster with another top 10 pick coming up.

Positive results usually a good indicator that things are going right, and negative results usually strong indicator that things are not working.

Leafs annual results indicate whatever they have been doing to date is not working, so are we planning on changing the team building methodology or more of the same and hoping for different results?.

The Rielly draft and this draft are picks earned as a result of unplanned epic season ending collapses. That was not the strategy to draft in those spots but rather the end result of poor team building trades and signings and assembly & execution. The trades and UFA signings were planned however those picks rewarded were unplanned and the result for failure to ice a competitive NHL team.

If the trades and signings were more effective & working the draft results would be later picks in the draft & not 5th and 8th overall. Doing nothing is planned, and is what draft rebuilding teams do to achieve their planned earlier draft picks by design.
 
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Faltorvo

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Feb 18, 2008
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Positive results usually a good indicator that things are going right, and negative results usually strong indicator that things are not working.

Leafs annual results indicate whatever they have been doing to date is not working, so are we planning on changing the team building methodology or more of the same and hoping for different results?.

The Rielly draft and this draft are picks earned as a result of unplanned epic season ending collapses. That was not the strategy to draft in those spots but rather the end result of poor team building trades and signings and assembly & execution. The trades and UFA signings were planned however those picks rewarded were unplanned and the result for failure to ice a competitive NHL team.

If the trades and signings were more effective & working the draft results would be later picks in the draft.

Clarkson
Gleason
Lupul
Dion
Bozak
Kessel

Those 6 players will eat up half our cap space next season.

Leaving us with 17 players to use the other half on.

How we looken?

and not 1 single drafted player on that list of 6.
 

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
49,057
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Positive results usually a good indicator that things are going right, and negative results usually strong indicator that things are not working.

Leafs annual results indicate whatever they have been doing to date is not working, so are we planning on changing the team building methodology or more of the same and hoping for different results?.

The Rielly draft and this draft are picks earned as a result of unplanned epic season ending collapses. That was not the strategy to draft in those spots but rather the end result of poor team building trades and signings and assembly & execution. The trades and UFA signings were planned however those picks rewarded were unplanned and the result for failure to ice a competitive NHL team.

If the trades and signings were more effective & working the draft results would be later picks in the draft & not 5th and 8th overall. Doing nothing is planned, and is what draft rebuilding teams do to achieve their planned earlier draft picks by design.
Everytime you change the GM you're changing a huge piece of the puzzle. It's not as simple as picking the methodology that always wins, which is why you see GMs fired on a regular basis.

A lot of high picks were unplanned. Toews is one that jumps to mind, same with Jordan Staal. Kessel is another. Then you have some planned picks like Hall and Tavares, which haven't exactly skyrocketed those franchise to multiple cup wins.

Doesn't look like the tank philosophy is fool-proof either.

Personally I hope we stop signing guys like Clarkson and Komisarek to big money contracts and tossing away 2nds on guys like Bolland. Better asset management overall will be more of a factor than a change in methodology IMO.
 

Faltorvo

Registered User
Feb 18, 2008
21,067
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Positive results usually a good indicator that things are going right, and negative results usually strong indicator that things are not working.

Leafs annual results indicate whatever they have been doing to date is not working, so are we planning on changing the team building methodology or more of the same and hoping for different results?.

The Rielly draft and this draft are picks earned as a result of unplanned epic season ending collapses. That was not the strategy to draft in those spots but rather the end result of poor team building trades and signings and assembly & execution. The trades and UFA signings were planned however those picks rewarded were unplanned and the result for failure to ice a competitive NHL team.

If the trades and signings were more effective & working the draft results would be later picks in the draft.

You are right this was unplanned

This roster was cap maxed and it took another 10 million with all our compliance buyouts used.

And the trade market values in our 2013/2014/2015 2nds already spent , plus 2 4th rounders, scrivens,blacker,fratten.

and the best kick in the goonies, 4 UFAs are going to walk for 0 asset value return.
 

Bomber0104

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Apr 8, 2007
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You don't consider Chara, M. Richards, Thomas, Carter, Hossa, Sharp key pieces?

I consider them pieces within draft built teams. Sharp and Hossa are surrounded by drafted talent. Chara and Thomas (now Rask) are surrounded by drafted talent. Richards and Carter, again, surrounded by drafted talent.

But of course you fail to see the big picture and completely miss the point. These are good pieces, but they are vastly outnumbered by many more pieces that are equal and greater in importance to the overall team composition.

You're few examples of once in a decade free agents and once in a blue moon trades are DRAMATICALLY OUTNUMBERED by the volume of homegrown core players added to teams each and every year.

Here's the beautful thing about "people like me", we judge each move. I can look and say that Komisarek signing was bad, that Clarkson signing was stupid, moving Steen made no sense etc... and also things like that was a bad pick or trading JVR for Schenn was a good move.

You judge based on hindsight.

For example, you cling to the Zdeno Chara signing as proof positive that we don't need to draft a #1 defenceman but at the time did you support dishing out max term and value, recognizing this player as a generational defenceman now did you?

No, you were most definitely happy with Bryan McCabe and Kaberle...as were most Leafs fans who scoffed at the idea of signing a division rival's UFA.


Some smaller minded people who aren't able to see beyond the draft are limited in what they are able to support

I have never supported anything that mortgages the future for a dismal present. For some unexplained reason, people like you proudly support this type of strategy. You support mortgaging the future for instant gratification only delaying the inevitable need to build the team with homegrown talent.

This is a fact.

We are in the exact same position we were coming out of the lockout and people like you have been proudly supporting all of these wasted years.

The Bruins top 3 d-men when healthy aren't drafted players. SJ's #1 goalie, #1 D-man and 2 top 6 forwards (Thornton and Burns) aren't drafted players. I already mentioned Hossa and Sharp.

Again, pieces surrounded by a drafted core. How many more times will you need to be told this?

Each one of these teams has good drafted players as well, but who has said the Leafs shouldn't draft well? Have you seen a fan say the fact they wish we traded the Rielly pick?

An realistic and knowledgable fan of the Toronto Maple Leafs would never have even wanted the Leafs to pretend to be competing for a playoff spot last year when instead they should have been focusing on adding a generational forward like Nathan Mackinnon, or another core piece.

Anyone who advocates trading a first round pick better support a team that has proven playoff success and a chance to contend for the Stanley Cup.

My "facts" say Chara is a key piece on the Bruins, your "fact" say he isn't. My "facts" say Joe Thornton is a big piece of the Sharks, yours say he isn't.

Do you really want to talk "facts"?

Chara is as much a key piece as Bergeron, Lucic, Krecji, Marchand and Hamilton have been, are, and will be for the Bruins.

Thornton is as big a piece as Marleau, Couture, and Pavelski have been, are, and will be for the Sharks.

Again, you are simply outnumbered at every turn.

For every example you have of a good piece added by trade or free agency I can easily give you four more.

The numbers just don't agree with your stance on hockey, period.

You just aren't knowledgeable about hockey or you just refuse the raw facts that lay right before your eyes.

How ironic, you're preaching about "not learning lessons" when you don't even know what you're teaching. Maybe you should hop off that high horse before you hurt yourself.

I know exactly what I am teaching because I've been doing it for 7 years now. "Re-toolers" like you have been proven wrong over and over and over again by realists and yet you continue the same song and dance.

More re-tooling....that's the answer.

Trade draft picks. Sign brutal players to brutal contracts.

Why you ask?

Because of Florida, Edmonton, and Brooklyn. And because we might just have a Chara/Hossa type signing on our hands.

But of course you realize these are exceptions and not rules...but for some unknown reason....you cling to it like a religion.

And like clockwork...when it fails each and every year (like it has). Around we go again. More re-tooling.

Care to show me where I said those are the 2 we should build around?

If you support anything other than dismantling the Leafs' rotten core in favor of a draft rebuild you are basically giving the thumbs up to Kessel and Phaneuf leading the charge for the foreseeable future.

You are guilty by association.

And you will be proven wrong like you have been so many times.

Maybe in another 5 years you will learn something.

Doubtful though.
 
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HamiltonNHL

Parity era hockey is just puck luck + draft luck
Jan 4, 2012
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Clarkson
Gleason
Lupul
Dion
Bozak
Kessel

Those 6 players will eat up half our cap space next season.

How we looken?
Clarkson, Dion are Nonis hires.
Nonis must go.
Carlyle has to go.
At a minimum, 3 of those 6 have to go to be considered a rebuild and one of Kessel or Phaneuf.
I think I'd keep Phaneuf because he'll be hard to trade anyway. But we need a #1 D to replace him.

We must prioritize D.
And since nothing in this world is free ... we must sacrifice some Offence.
It's time to build around Bernier.
Build this team from the Goalie, out.
 

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