Speculation: Where will Erik Karlsson be traded to?

[Clayonator]

IMO it’ll be to Vegas for a package centred around Theodore. Makes too much sense. Even with Suzuki off the table, Hague/Brannstrom would likely be included, and their 1st next year. We’re aware Glass is a nonstarter, unfortunate for us as it is.

 

[phillyb]

Haven’t read through all of the posts, but Ottawa’s gonna get their pick back from COL with Karlsson going the other way...other pieces involved.

 

[harrisb]

IMO it’ll be to Vegas for a package centred around Theodore. Makes too much sense. Even with Suzuki off the table, Hague/Brannstrom would likely be included, and their 1st next year. We’re aware Glass is a nonstarter, unfortunate for us as it is.

Vegas: EK65 signed
Ottawa: Theodore, Glass, Brannstrom and Clarkson

Vegas gets cap relief to sign EK and rids themselves of clarkson. Ottawa loads up with prospects but doesn’t have to pay clarkson so it fits with the rebuild

 

[Clayonator]

Vegas: EK65 signed
Ottawa: Theodore, Glass, Brannstrom and Clarkson

Vegas gets cap relief to sign EK and rids themselves of clarkson. Ottawa loads up with prospects but doesn’t have to pay clarkson so it fits with the rebuild

Would gladly take on Clarkson’s cap hit if it would be enough for them to include Glass.

 

[Rubi]

My money is still on Vegas.

 

[Cancuks]

Bruins for a package of picks and prospects.

 

[Bedards Dad]

Haven’t read through all of the posts, but Ottawa’s gonna get their pick back from COL with Karlsson going the other way...other pieces involved.

That would be smart of them, EK for Hughes+. Knowing it's the smart play, we can be assured it won't happen.

 

[Kcb12345]

My money is still on Vegas.

Not a bad bet with McPhee's willingness to get deals done. Seems like he really wants to go all in. I also could see a team like San Jose swoop in and get Karlsson out of no where and stun everyone. Not necessarily just San Jose but you get what I mean

 

[jghockey]

I'm a Flyers fan myself, and I think the only (albeit remote) chance the Flyers have to land Karlsson would be via trade now. If Karlsson tests the market, Hextall will not be suckered into the outrageous dog-and-pony show or pay Karlsson 12.5 million to out-bid some other teams IMO.

If Hextall really wanted Karlsson, he could actually get him today IMO. I think the Flyers are one of the teams that could rival any other offer, if not beat it. If the Flyers were to trade for Karlsson, chances are it would be a Pax-to-Vegas scenario, where the framework for an extension has already been agreed upon.

The Flyers have the assets and picks to trade in a heartbeat if they really want to. Their farm is so loaded, they could give up (2) 1sts, (1) 2nd, (2) 3rds plus a stud D prospect like Sanheim and another player and become a legit contender for the next 5-7 years, before Karlsson, Giroux, Voracek and JVR wind down.

Look at our young pieces and farm...

Patrick
Konency
Lindblom
Frost
Weal
Farabee
O'Brien
Ratcliffe
Allison
Rubstov
Gostisbehere
Provorov
Myers
Sanheim
Hagg
Morin
Hart
Sandstrom

etc. etc. And that's off the top of my head.

The Flyers could literally go without picks for the next two years and not feel it. And, to add a Norris trophy defenseman?

The Flyers have a good farm system. Why break it up now for one star player?

 

[Scout6]

I think he's going to Tampa Bay

 

[benjiv1]

Karlsson to Vegas for:

Theodore
Tuch
Brannstrom
Conditional 1st for Re-signing

I would be content with that

 

[branch]

To Ott Nurse, Drasaitl, 2019-1st, Kassian

To Edmonton Karlsson-8/88 signed, Stone 8/60-signed

 

[DFC]

Haven’t read through all of the posts, but Ottawa’s gonna get their pick back from COL with Karlsson going the other way...other pieces involved.

I'm not sure Colorado would do that. I think they'd rather let Ottawa trade Karlsson, go full tank, and have a solid shot at #1.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

IMO, there isn't going to be any "sign and trade". EK will explore his UFA options. Actually his destinations being a UFA are limited due to teams cap restrictions.
I could see a trade as rental to....Vegas or Tampa during the season.
Vegas or Dallas for his UFA signing.

 

[JoemAvs]

You serious?

IMO thats a giant homerun for Ottawa given the situation. A very young, potential #1 C (who already is close to a PPG player in this league and who IMO already has way more value than Stone especially given their contract situations), a young top4 D with upside who has established himself as well as a 1st for two guys with less than a year on their contracts left?

For me thats a giant homerun that I really don't expect the Sens to hit at all. I am sure they will get a crapton of quantity out of trading these two but IMO there is no chance in hell they get even close to as good of a piece in return as Draisaitl. And I am not even sure that the centerpiece of either deal will be as good as Nurse. In fact I somewhat doubt that.

In the end it does not matter because pulling off two giant Sign and Trade deals in the same trade will probably never happen but I think you guys are in for a shock if you hate this deal in tr...

As an Avs fan I personally have 0 interest in trading Makar or either of our 1st round picks for Stone or Karlsson given their contract situations....
Not even straight up. Way too risky given the kind of contract they will demand and the risk of them wanting to go the Tavares road regardless..

 

[DFC]

IMO, there isn't going to be any "sign and trade". EK will explore his UFA options. Actually his destinations being a UFA are limited due to teams cap restrictions.
I could see a trade as rental to....Vegas or Tampa during the season.
Vegas or Dallas for his UFA signing.

TB never offers much for rentals. I think Vegas would have the upper hand in a rental scenario, unless Brisbois has a different philosophy than Yzerman. I kind of doubt it though.

 

[branch]

You serious?

IMO thats a giant homerun for Ottawa given the situation. A very young, potential #1 C (who already is close to a PPG player in this league and who IMO already has way more value than Stone especially given their contract situations), a young top4 D with upside who has established himself as well as a 1st for two guys with less than a year on their contracts left?

For me thats a giant homerun that I really don't expect the Sens to hit at all. I am sure they will get a crapton of quantity out of trading these two but IMO there is no chance in hell they get even close to as good of a piece in return as Draisaitl. And I am not even sure that the centerpiece of either deal will be as good as Nurse. In fact I somewhat doubt that.

In the end it does not matter because pulling off to giant Sign and Trade deals in the same trade will probably never happen but I think you guys are in for a shock if you hate this deal in tr...

As an Avs fan I personally have 0 interest in trading Makar or either of our 1st round picks for Stone or Karlsson given their contract situations....
Not even straight up. Way too risky given the kind of contract they will demand and the risk of them wanting to go the Tavares road regardless..

Sorry it's complete trash. Both Karlsson and Stone signed for Draisaitl and Nurse is disgusting.

Agree to disagree. You also missed the part where he stated that it is a sign and trade. I was basing my opinion off of that.

 

[TeamRenzo]

That is my favorite gif out there

 

[DFC]

Sorry it's complete trash. Both Karlsson and Stone signed for Draisaitl and Nurse is disgusting.

Agree to disagree. You also missed the part where he stated that it is a sign and trade. I was basing my opinion off of that.

Doesn't matter. You're still not getting that in a scenario where Karlsson isn't coming back to Ottawa. Nobody's gonna offer it because they don't have to.

 

[JoemAvs]

Sorry it's complete trash. Both Karlsson and Stone signed for Draisaitl and Nurse is disgusting.

Agree to disagree. You also missed the part where he stated that it is a sign and trade. I was basing my opinion off of that.

Yeah. Lets agree to disagree. Think you are way off on this one. Again double SnT never happens but IMO if you are the Sens and get Stone and EK to agree to an extension with Edmonton (which also has a very slim chance of happening), you jump on that deal.

Sure a SnT adds value and I already factored it in. Expecting Draisaitl+ Nurse+ 1st for an unextended Karlsson+ Stone would be a bit delusional IMO. But it also does not give them the same kind of value as they would have if they were on these longterm deals with the Sens already.

There are always dumb GMs in this league but if anything like that is out there, Dorion should have made that deal a long, long time ago.

McPhee and Brisebois are your best shot. McPhee is a horrible trader that loves to overpay significantly and Brisebois is new and might want to make a splash and is in a position to afford it.

But the best case for Karlsson in that scenario is probably Sergachev+ conditional 1st + B pieces or Theodore+ conditional pieces + 1 young Vegas forward. I'd take Draisaitl over these packages without a second thought. Think he is worth way more than that.

And Stone on a 1yr deal is not close to covering the difference IMO. Doubt that he can fetch a Nurse +1st + excess value of Draisaitl right now

Oh well. We will see. But I would be interested on what exactly you expect to get right now.

 

[God King Fudge]

TB never offers much for rentals. I think Vegas would have the upper hand in a rental scenario, unless Brisbois has a different philosophy than Yzerman. I kind of doubt it though.

Same. I think Brisebois is essentially Steve Yzerman with a different name and body. I imagine they're almost exactly the same in overall philosophy. May be different when it comes to how the existing roster is valued, though.

 

[God King Fudge]

“But I’ll tell you one thing: The biggest question I have - I think the team that Erik Karlsson - or one of the teams - that he would really like to go to is Tampa. There was a GM change there today. One of the first things I wondered from Julien BriseBois, does he feel differently about what they were offering for Erik Karlsson than Steve Yzerman did.”

The argument was made to Friedman that the Lightning does not have cap space for Karlsson, and “how are you going to fit $11-12 million in there.”

“Well, you only have to fill 6.5 for this year,” argued Friedman, alluding to this final season of Karlsson’s contract which counts $6.5 million against the cap and is $7.5 million in actual salary. “And he’s not going to do 11, 12 in Tampa. If he signs there, he’ll be signing for Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman money, somewhere in that range.

“And thirdly, Ottawa has got a ton of cap room. If Tampa has to move a guy to do it, Ottawa can do it.”

 

[CupsOverCash]

Im kinda hoping we go all in for EK. Want SY to have a cup in TB while he was still a part of this thing. I wouldnt give Hedman, Point or Kucherov, but I would pretty much everything else.

 

[CupInSIX]

I have a few thoughts about a potential trade sending Karlsson to the VGK post Pacioretty....

-Despite what that article says, VGK can no longer absorb Ryan. Even if Karlsson won't sign an extension off the bat, they likely hope to extend Karlsson. Even with dumping Clarkson, 18M of salary would be very hard to fit in without having to hurt the team in other places. That, and unlike Clarkson, Ryan cannot be put on LTIR.

-Swapping Gaborik for Clarkson might be a nice middle ground. Gaborik's at that Hossa/Lupul part of his career where he seems beat up enough to justify LTIRetirement. Due to all his pre-existing conditions, he might not be insured, meaning regardless of whether he is hurt, the Senators would have to pay his entire salary. Clarkson's salary is apparently insured, so while both LTIR cap hits mostly cancel each other out (Gaborik's contract is a year longer) the Senators would save around 10 million dollars in real money over the next three seasons.

-VGK have the assets to acquire Karlsson, but do they really want to give them up without an extension in place? We're hearing about underwhelming six piece offers coming from a team. That team seems to be hinted at being Dallas since so many "insiders" have declared them as the front runner. Honka and Shore are players who have both been attached to a DAL pitch for Karlsson. Considering how many assets Vegas has given up in both the Tatar and Paciorietty trades, do the Golden Knights really want to give up a young defender, a young NHL forward, and four future pieces without any assurance that Karlsson will stay beyond this season?

-Not only that, the Senators have yet to accept this 6 piece deal, meaning as of now it's not good enough. Whoever meets Ottawa's price will be taking a huge gamble if there's no extension in place.

No they can still take Ryan no problem this year, then retain some cap after the season and flip him elsewhere.

 

[Boxscore]

The Flyers have a good farm system. Why break it up now for one star player?

I'll give you 5 reasons:

1. The Flyers have a ton of prospects, and if you wait for all of them to contribute, you're likely looking over the next 4-5 years.

2. The Flyers key vet core in Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds and JVR are not puppies anymore. There's realistically a 4-5 year window left with these guys.

3. The Flyers only had one Norris trophy winner/candidate in the prime of their career throughout their history - Mark Howe. Karlsson is that.

4. Karlsson is only 28, so he has another 7 high-end years left, then another 1 or 2 of good years.

5. The Flyers are that kind of team that, with a stud RHD like Karlsson, could be a Top-5 team in the East for the long-haul, with a shot any year.

I'm not suggesting the Flyers absolutely destroy their entire farm system, but, if the speculation is true that Dorion hasn't traded Karlsson because the offers are completely underwhelming, perhaps Hextall could offer the following package...

TO PHI:
- Karlsson (extended)

TO OTT:
- (Sens choice of) Sanheim/Myers
- (Sens choice of) Farabee/Ratcliffe/O'Brien
- (Sens choice of) Weal/Laughton
- 1st rounder in 2019
- 2nd rounder in 2020

So, while I really like all of the above prospects for the Flyers, would we better better off over the next 7 years with a prime Erik Karlsson or Myers, Farabee, Laughton and two picks? We'd still have current young players in Patrick, Konecny, Lindblom, Weal, Gostisbehere, Provorov, Sanheim, Hagg... plus prospects like Hart, Frost, Sandstrom, Ratcliffe, O'Brien, Allison, Vorobyev, etc. We'd be offering the Sens a very good package but not ripping the team apart like the Lindros trade.

Once Carter Hart is a fixture between the pipes - say 2 more years - The Flyers will have a lineup that features key pieces...

Giroux
Voracek
van Riemsdyk
Konecny
Couturier
Patrick
Frost
Lindblom
Karlsson
Provorov
Gostisbehere
Sanheim
Hart

etc.

That's a team that could do some serious damage.