Speculation: Where does Braden Holtby end up after this season?

[SherVaughn30]

Detroit?

If they were to sign him, then they would have to get a defense as well. My guess would be that Holtby would want to sign with a team that will be or is a Cup contender. Flames would probably be at the top of the list in that regard.

 

[Sanchise90]

Wtf why on Earth is Holtby at 30 years old worth 9-10 million AAV?

 

[42]

Someone will offer Holtby at least 8 million per for 5 or 6 years and WAS can't afford that much cap for a goalie. Not sure about cap availability but Edmonton, Buffalo, New Jersey, Calgary and Columbus would all be better with him.

 

[Hivemind]

He's only 30. Caps likely make him a very good offer to stay and I wouldn't be surprised if he takes it. They're still a top team and if Ovi and Backstrom re-up they still will be for a while longer.

"Only 30" is pretty old when you're getting a brand new contract. He's going to command a sizable contract with a lot of term, and that's a lot of risk to take on a goalie. They're going to be signing him through his age 36 or 37 season at the price of a high-end #1 goalie. The best case scenario is he lives up to his contract and they get even value from it. But expensive goalie contracts have an awfully high failure rate, and there's a really good chance they end up with an overpriced back-up. The risk outweighs the reward here. The only out is if they can get Holtby to sign without a NMC and have agree with Seattle to pick him at the expansion draft.

- Samsonov was great in the KHL but just had a pretty bad first year in North America.

He had a poor first couple months in North America. He dominated from January onwards. He had a .930sv% and 1.78 GAA from Jan12 to the end of the season. You can find plenty of high quality NHL goalies that had rough starts to their AHL career.

- Vanecek has a mediocre AHL career.

He was an AHL All-Star last year.

 

[nbwingsfan]

That makes no sense what so ever. Samsonov will be the #1 going into next season after this one. The Caps will protect him in the expansion draft for sure. Also, they will more likely give that money to Backstrom. Center position is far more important than any goalie.

Samsonov had a very average first season and by all accounts was lacklustre in pre-season as well.

Betting on Samsonov to step in and be the starting on a contending team next season is far from a guarantee.

I think if he struggles again this season you’ll see Holtby re-signed.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Wtf why on Earth is Holtby at 30 years old worth 9-10 million AAV?

Bob just got that while being just as good of a goalie.

 

[Hivemind]

Samsonov had a very average first season and by all accounts was lacklustre in pre-season as well.

lolwut
I can't find a single account, let alone "by all accounts," that thinks Samsonov was lackluster this pre-season. Even your take on his AHL performance makes it obvious you're just reading boxcar stats.

 

[nbwingsfan]

lolwut
I can't find a single account, let alone "by all accounts," that thinks Samsonov was lackluster this pre-season. Even your take on his AHL performance makes it obvious you're just reading boxcar stats.

How would you describe a .898sv% on a good team? There’s no way to spin that as a great season and ready for NHL starting duties.

These accounts are coming from your own posters on this site.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

Samsonov has faced only 28 shots and saved 25 of them for a 89.2 save percentage.

He’s been neither stellar nor horrible, per se. Just too small of a sample size to even judge him in the NHL. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get another year in the AHL. May be he comes up and spells Copley at some point during the season.

 

[SherVaughn30]

He's only 30. Caps likely make him a very good offer to stay and I wouldn't be surprised if he takes it. They're still a top team and if Ovi and Backstrom re-up they still will be for a while longer.

- Samsonov was great in the KHL but just had a pretty bad first year in North America.
- Vanecek has a mediocre AHL career.
- Copely just played his first season in the NHL at 27.

This isn't meant to a chirp, each of those guys has some promise, it's just to point out that the caps aren't exactly in "sure thing" territory with any of their replacements. If they have someone as good as Holtby why would they throw that away to gamble on one of these guys?

You obviously didn't do your homework on Samsonov. 1st half of his Hershey season he was struggling, but 2nd half he got his barrings straightened out and went on serious tare. He basically was the reason that Hershey made the playoffs with a not so talented roster.

Vanecek was just an AHL All-Star this past season. Some goalies take longer than others. Vanecek is ready for the Caps backup job if called upon.

Copley will probably not pan out to be a #1, but his 16 wins last season was no fluke.

Compared to the Leafs, I wouldn't talk. Andersen is good, but if he goes down the Leafs are in trouble if they have to rely on Hutchinson.

 

[Hivemind]

How would you describe a .898sv% on a good team? There’s no way to spin that as a great season and ready for NHL starting duties.

These accounts are coming from your own posters on this site.

I account for it by actually following the team, and not just the end of season boxcars. Samsonov struggled mightily his first couple months in North America. Different sized rinks, new angles, different pace of play, and not speaking the language all contributed. The Bears were also terrible to start last year, far from a good team. But Samsonov adjusted as time went on, and his performance improved alongside the rest of the Bears. From January 12 to the end of the season, Samsonov posted a .930 sv% and a 1.78GAA.

Further still, plenty of good goalies have struggled to adapt to the AHL initially. I guess we should have written off Evgeni Nabokov after his 3.92GAA and .872sv% rookie AHL season? Or Kolzig, Bishop, Fleury, Dubnyk, Vokoun, etc.

And go ahead and link to me to those accounts.

 

[SherVaughn30]

Someone will offer Holtby at least 8 million per for 5 or 6 years and WAS can't afford that much cap for a goalie. Not sure about cap availability but Edmonton, Buffalo, New Jersey, Calgary and Columbus would all be better with him.

Devils are in good shape with Schneider and Blackwood.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

At the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter the stats he puts up in the AHL. Whether they be amazing or god awful.

The only thing that matters is how he performs against NHL teams. He will get that chance at some point this year. Make a judgement then.

With that said, I’d be surprised if the Capitals only give him a small run and then promote him to their every day #1 next year. That will be very risky for them.

 

[Bevans]

I think they'll re-sign Holtby for a fair market contract. And then leave him unprotected from Seattle. Unless Holtby returns to form and Samsonov struggles.

Maybe they'll also give Seattle extra incentive ala Fleury.

I'm as high as anyone on Samsonov but to say it's crazy that Holtby would be re-signed when they have a prospect with zero NHL experience is a bit of a stretch.

 

[ToDavid]

"Only 30" is pretty old when you're getting a brand new contract. He's going to command a sizable contract with a lot of term, and that's a lot of risk to take on a goalie. They're going to be signing him through his age 36 or 37 season at the price of a high-end #1 goalie. The best case scenario is he lives up to his contract and they get even value from it. But expensive goalie contracts have an awfully high failure rate, and there's a really good chance they end up with an overpriced back-up. The risk outweighs the reward here. The only out is if they can get Holtby to sign without a NMC and have agree with Seattle to pick him at the expansion draft.


He had a poor first couple months in North America. He dominated from January onwards. He had a .930sv% and 1.78 GAA from Jan12 to the end of the season. You can find plenty of high quality NHL goalies that had rough starts to their AHL career.

He was an AHL All-Star last year.

My point was not that Samsonov won't be good. But one season of mediocre AHL play, where he was good for half the year, is not enough to bet the farm on him.

Vanecek was not an AHL all-star. He was invited to the AHL all-star classic. Being an "all-star" is being on the first or second all-star teams (i.e., the best and second best players at each position for the season).

 

[SherVaughn30]

Wtf why on Earth is Holtby at 30 years old worth 9-10 million AAV?

Bobrovsky just got that amount and he's 31! Holtby has almost the same regular season numbers(actually more wins in less games played) and he has the far better playoff numbers! If you want to talk about goalies who have proven to be good both regular season and the playoffs, and making $10 million a year, Holtby has the edge over both Price and Bobrovsky!

 

[Hivemind]

My point was not that Samsonov won't be good. But one season of mediocre AHL play, where he was good for half the year, is not enough to bet the farm on him.

Holtby isn't walking today. They have a full season between now and when he's a UFA. And with the goalie depth that Washington has, it's hardly betting the farm. Giving Holtby 6+ years at the $8M+ he will command on a contract that doesn't start until after his 31st birthday would be an equally large, if not larger, gamble than riding with Samsonov.

Vanecek was not an AHL all-star. He was invited to the AHL all-star classic. Being an "all-star" is being on the first or second all-star teams (i.e., the best and second best players at each position for the season).

This is just a pedantic distinction to make.

 

[ToDavid]

You obviously didn't do your homework on Samsonov. 1st half of his Hershey season he was struggling, but 2nd half he got his barrings straightened out and went on serious tare. He basically was the reason that Hershey made the playoffs with a not so talented roster.

Vanecek was just an AHL All-Star this past season. Some goalies take longer than others. Vanecek is ready for the Caps backup job if called upon.

Copley will probably not pan out to be a #1, but his 16 wins last season was no fluke.

Compared to the Leafs, I wouldn't talk. Andersen is good, but if he goes down the Leafs are in trouble if they have to rely on Hutchinson.

I swear the default response around here is "yeah what about your team!" I was providing my take on the situation. I don't think any of those options are a sure enough thing to be thinking about moving on from Holtby yet. I'm quite aware that Hutchinson isn't a starting goalie.

Also that's two people calling Vanecek an all-star. Being invited to the all-star classic does not make you an all-star.

 

[ToDavid]

Holtby isn't walking today. They have a full season between now and when he's a UFA. And with the goalie depth that Washington has, it's hardly betting the farm. Giving Holtby 6+ years at the $8M+ he will command on a contract that doesn't start until after his 31st birthday would be an equally large, if not larger, gamble than riding with Samsonov.


This is just a pedantic distinction to make.

It's not pedantic, they mean completely different things and absolutely nobody considers being invited to an all-star game to be a very relevant metric. Do you really consider 16th in GAA and 23rd in Sv% to be an all-star worthy season? I know stats aren't everything but at the end of the day his job is to stop shots from going in and he did that worse than many other goalies in the league.

 

[SherVaughn30]

Were are getting a bit off what my intention was for this topic. So I would be interested to see what other teams fans think regarding Holtby.

 

[42]

Devils are in good shape with Schneider and Blackwood.

Schneider looked like he was done last year and Blackwood is unproven. This year will be quite telling about those two.

 

[Bandit]

Where does he end up? Overpaidsville.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I account for it by actually following the team, and not just the end of season boxcars. Samsonov struggled mightily his first couple months in North America. Different sized rinks, new angles, different pace of play, and not speaking the language all contributed. The Bears were also terrible to start last year, far from a good team. But Samsonov adjusted as time went on, and his performance improved alongside the rest of the Bears. From January 12 to the end of the season, Samsonov posted a .930 sv% and a 1.78GAA.

Further still, plenty of good goalies have struggled to adapt to the AHL initially. I guess we should have written off Evgeni Nabokov after his 3.92GAA and .872sv% rookie AHL season? Or Kolzig, Bishop, Fleury, Dubnyk, Vokoun, etc.

And go ahead and link to me to those accounts.

So your reason for thinking Samsonov is ready to be a starter is because there was other goalies who played bad in the AHL before? How about the 100s who played poorly and didn’t end up starters?

Also weird to just completely dismiss half of his season (also funny to use the Jan 12 date, ignoring his first two January games) in an already small sample size.

As a whole he had a very average start to his North American career and you’re going to have to hope he has a better season if you’re already banking on him being your starter.

You really think if he posts another sub .900sv% in the AHL that the Caps are going to abandon Holtby for him? I strongly doubt it.

 

[Funk21]

EDM
Calgary
CBJ
NJD
Nashville
Vancouver

Obviously it all depends on internal development of their own goalie prospects but I think because most of those teams will likely be very strong in a year they would be desirable places to play.

As many have posted I think he ends up with 8-8.5 million dollar a year deal unless someone really overpaid.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Holtby isn't walking today. They have a full season between now and when he's a UFA. And with the goalie depth that Washington has, it's hardly betting the farm. Giving Holtby 6+ years at the $8M+ he will command on a contract that doesn't start until after his 31st birthday would be an equally large, if not larger, gamble than riding with Samsonov.


This is just a pedantic distinction to make.

How is it a pedantic distinction? Would you consider Larkin an “All-Star” when he scored 45pts but represented the Wings at the All-Star game? What about Girgenson? Frans Nielsen? Howard? You should put little to no stock in the AHL all star game.